I enjoyed Matt Coulter’s recent post showing how different the race for the Republican presidential nomination looked in March of 2007, compared to how things eventually turned out.  But, since this election season is beginning so much later than the last one, I think it might be even more accurate to look at where the race for 2008 stood when, like today, there were only three major candidates (Governors or federal office holders) with exploratory committees.

At this point in time, only former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, former Governor Tim Pawlenty, and former Governor Buddy Roemer have presidential exploratory committees.  None of these committees are even a month old.

On November 10, 2006, there were three major candidates with exploratory committees: Congressman Duncan Hunter, Senator John McCain, and former NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani (for all practical purposes a governor).  In early-to-mid November of 2006, which is more comparable to this point in the 2012 election, the polls looked like this:

The national numbers according to Rasmussen:

• Rudy Giuliani – 24%
• Condoleezza Rice – 18%
• John McCain – 17%

According to McLaughlin & Associates:

• John McCain – 28%
• Rudy Giuliani – 22%
• Condoleezza Rice – 13%
• George Allen – 2%
• Bill Frist – 2%
• George Pataki – 1%

According to Gallup:

• Rudy Giuliani – 28%
• John McCain – 26%
• Condoleezza Rice – 13%
• Newt Gingrich – 7%
• Bill Frist – 4%
• George Allen – 2%
• George Pataki – 1%
• Chuck Hagel – 1%

And, finally, according to Pew:

• Rudy Giuliani – 27%
• John McCain – 26%
• Condoleezza Rice – 20%
• Bill Frist – 4%

The race for Iowa looked like this:

• Rudy Giuliani – 28%
• John McCain – 26%
• Newt Gingrich – 18%
• Chuck Hagel – 6%

The race for New Hampshire looked like this:

• John McCain – 29%
• Rudy Giuliani – 25%
• Newt Gingrich – 14%

What I find most fascinating is not how only the candidates changed positions, but how many names were being purported as serious, major potential contenders for the Republican nomination, only to stay out of the race completely–as well as the candidates who weren’t even on anyone’s imagination yet, but would eventually become major players in the election.

For instance, for 2012, what if Mike Huckabee and Sarah Palin never even run, and some out-of-left-field individual like Stanley McChrystal or Clarence Thomas suddenly swoops in during the last leg of the race, in response to some major dissatisfaction with the field, and instantly becomes a frontrunner, a la Fred Thompson?  Might one misworded joke send a presumed frontrunner like Mitt Romney or Tim Pawlenty tumbling into oblivion, a la George Allen?  I’m not making any predictions here, but it’s interesting to note that, at this point, it’s so early, we don’t even know who the candidates are going to be, let alone their polling statuses.