PPP (D) Michigan 2012 Presidential Survey
- Barack Obama 48% (47%)
- Mitt Romney 41% (43%)
- Barack Obama 50% (51%)
- Mike Huckabee 41% (39%)
- Barack Obama 53% (52%)
- Newt Gingrich 37% (37%)
- Barack Obama 52%
- Scott Walker 32%
- Barack Obama 55% (56%)
- Sarah Palin 35% (35%)
Among Independents
- Barack Obama 41% (42%)
- Mitt Romney 40% (41%)
- Barack Obama 46% (52%)
- Mike Huckabee 40% (31%)
- Barack Obama 47%
- Scott Walker 33%
- Barack Obama 51% (55%)
- Newt Gingrich 35% (28%)
- Barack Obama 52% (62%)
- Sarah Palin 33% (26%)
Among Moderates
- Barack Obama 56% (59%)
- Mitt Romney 25% (29%)
- Barack Obama 65% (67%)
- Mike Huckabee 21% (20%)
- Barack Obama 66%
- Scott Walker 14%
- Barack Obama 71% (65%)
- Newt Gingrich 16% (20%)
- Barack Obama 74% (72%)
- Sarah Palin 13% (17%)
Among Men
- Barack Obama 48% (42%)
- Mitt Romney 44% (50%)
- Barack Obama 49% (44%)
- Mike Huckabee 42% (44%)
- Barack Obama 51% (45%)
- Newt Gingrich 38% (43%)
- Barack Obama 52%
- Scott Walker 36%
- Barack Obama 54% (50%)
- Sarah Palin 37% (39%)
Among Women
- Barack Obama 48% (52%)
- Mitt Romney 38% (36%)
- Barack Obama 51% (59%)
- Mike Huckabee 40% (33%)
- Barack Obama 54% (59%)
- Newt Gingrich 35% (29%)
- Barack Obama 56% (61%)
- Sarah Palin 33% (31%)
- Barack Obama 52%
- Scott Walker 28%
Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}
- Mitt Romney 37% (39%) / 45% (37%) {-8%}
- Mike Huckabee 36% (37%) / 45% (40%) {-9%}
- Scott Walker 22% / 37% {-15%}
- Newt Gingrich 27% (28%) / 57% (50%) {-30%}
- Sarah Palin 31% (34%) / 61% (60%) {-30%}
Among Republicans
- Mike Huckabee 69% (66%) / 15% (18%) {+54%}
- Sarah Palin 65% (65%) / 22% (24%) {+43%}
- Mitt Romney 62% (63%) / 21% (21%) {+41%}
- Newt Gingrich 56% (57%) / 19% (19%) {+37%}
- Scott Walker 41% / 11% {+30%}
Among Independents
- Mitt Romney 42% (43%) / 39% (34%) {+3%}
- Mike Huckabee 36% (29%) / 45% (43%) {-9%}
- Scott Walker 22% / 31% {-9%}
- Newt Gingrich 27% (20%) / 61% (59%) {-34%}
- Sarah Palin 29% (28%) / 66% (68%) {-37%}
Among Moderates
- Mitt Romney 34% (31%) / 46% (39%) {-12%}
- Scott Walker 11% / 44% {-33%}
- Mike Huckabee 20% (21%) / 58% (48%) {-38%}
- Newt Gingrich 11% (17%) / 75% (60%) {-64%}
- Sarah Palin 12% (17%) / 80% (79%) {-68%}
Among Men
- Mike Huckabee 37% (39%) / 47% (44%) {-10%}
- Scott Walker 28% / 39% {-11%}
- Mitt Romney 35% (46%) / 50% (41%) {-15%}
- Newt Gingrich 28% (34%) / 56% (54%) {-28%}
- Sarah Palin 32% (38%) / 62% (57%) {-30%}
Among Women
- Mitt Romney 39% (33%) / 40% (32%) {-1%}
- Mike Huckabee 36% (34%) / 44% (35%) {-8%}
- Scott Walker 17% / 35% {-18%}
- Sarah Palin 31% (31%) / 61% (62%) {-30%}
- Newt Gingrich 25% (21%) / 58% (46%) {-33%}
Do you approve or disapprove of President Barack Obama’s job performance?
- Approve 47% (50%)
- Disapprove 45% (45%)
Among Men
- Approve 49% (44%)
- Disapprove 47% (51%)
Among Women
- Approve 46% (56%)
- Disapprove 44% (39%)
Survey of 502 Michigan voters was conducted March 18-20, 2011. The margin of error is +/- 4.4 percentage points. Party ID breakdown: 41% (35%) Democrat; 28% (35%) Republican; 31% (29%) Independent/Other. Political ideology: 35% Moderate; 21% Somewhat conservative; 16% Somewhat liberal; 16% Very conservative; 12% Very liberal. Results from the poll conducted December 3-6, 2010 are in parentheses.
–Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal.
March 25th, 2011 at 1:04 pm
Well, so much for “Mitt’s going to win us Michigan.” He’s a whopping two points better than Huck.
March 25th, 2011 at 1:11 pm
1. Matt “MWS” Says:
March 25th, 2011 at 1:04 pm
Well, so much for “Mitt’s going to win us Michigan.” He’s a whopping two points better than Huck.
================================================
Then what happened to Huck in 2008? This is after all a PPP. Romney will take Michigan, just like I suspect Huck will take Iowa. This is a poll of Huck/Romney against Obama, not against each other.
March 25th, 2011 at 1:16 pm
But the Key Number(TM), Matt, is that only Romney holds Obama under 50.
Seriously, hardly any movement from last time for any of them. Huck up two, Romney down two — MoE.
March 25th, 2011 at 1:18 pm
Besides, until Huck puts his hat in the Ring (assuming he does), nothing matters. If Huck doesn’t run, then the polls are useless.
March 25th, 2011 at 1:23 pm
Bob,
You beat me to it. Except I’d add that, being PPP, this is worthless.
March 25th, 2011 at 1:24 pm
Do you notice something about the polling data? Look at the survey compared to last time PPP polled Michigan. Democrats +6, Republicans -7, Independents +2. Flawed
March 25th, 2011 at 1:37 pm
Steven S. @#6,
Then that makes Obama’s falling approval rating and Romney’s slight drop and Huckabee’s slight rise even more confusing.
March 25th, 2011 at 1:39 pm
Steven S,
Par for the course with PPP. They like a stacked deck.
March 25th, 2011 at 1:41 pm
The last PPP poll showed Romney and Huckabee tied. Although I used a more recent poll from a different polling company that showed Romney leading in my state polling map. I’m anxiously waiting for the GOP 2012 race polling results from last weekend. Will Michigan stay yellow for Romney? Will North Carolina stay red for Huckabee?
This weekend they’ll be polling Florida again and Mississippi for the first time since the midterms at least.
March 25th, 2011 at 1:48 pm
Interesting article.
Mitt Romney’s path: Victory by ‘slog’
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0311/51921.html
March 25th, 2011 at 2:01 pm
http://blogs.abcnews.com/thenote/2011/03/the-note-eyes-on-iowa-in-search-of-fire-in-the-belly-in-the-2012-field.html
Excerpts..
March 25th, 2011 at 2:03 pm
PPP’s results are dated. Using 2008 metrics is a completely useless and inaccurate way to measure current political standings.
Actual Michigan polling, like Lansing-based polling firm EPIC/MRA found President Obama trailing Romney in a hypothetical matchup by 5 points, 41 to 46 percent.
The difference is that PPP is using far outdated metrics, while the people who know Michigan best show Mitt not only competitive, but winning.
March 25th, 2011 at 2:03 pm
Granny,
New FL and MS polling will be FUN.
March 25th, 2011 at 2:08 pm
So sad that oh so many put their faith in a far left pollster. Might as well ask for Nancy Pelosi’s endorsement while you’re at it.
March 25th, 2011 at 2:26 pm
Max,
LOL!
You are terribly wrong about Sarah Palin
but you do have wit and funny lines.
March 25th, 2011 at 2:56 pm
The only fire in Huckabee’s belly is Gastroesophageal reflux
March 25th, 2011 at 3:43 pm
Romney will win Michigan.
These pollsters poll 41% Democrats when Democrats made up 35% percent of the voting bloc in 2008. WTF?
March 25th, 2011 at 4:44 pm
Is Palin Really “Losing Ground”?
http://www.w-r-s.com/blog/2011/03/17/is-palin-really-losing-ground/
- FACT: The recent Washington Post/ABC news poll that is the basis the “losing ground” comments still shows Palin on the right side of the favorable/unfavorable scale with 58% having a favorable impression and 37% with an unfavorable impression.
- FACT: When a national survey asks self-identified Republicans “For whom would you vote for in the Republican primary,” the field is wide open. When the leader is polling south of 20%, no one is even come close to locking this up.
- FACT: The “self identified Republicans and Republican-leaning Independents” are very different from the actual caucus goers and Republican primary voters who will determine the Republican Presidential nomination. Fewer than five percent of these voters will actually be Iowa caucus participants or vote in one of the three or four early primaries that will be critical in deciding the next Republican nominee.
- FACT: At this time in 2007, the same national polls showed Rudy Giuliani as the prohibitive favorite for the Republican nomination and they continued to show him with sizeable leads even as it became increasingly clear he had no chance to become the nominee.
There is a reason that every Republican candidate in the country is begging for the coveted Sarah Palin endorsement – she has appeal to a large bloc of voters that are tired of business as usual and see her as someone that they can identify with on a personal level.
While there’s a significant number of people in traditional Republican circles that cringe at seeing her succeed, her greatest asset is that she can appeal to the same large voting blocs of middle class conservatives who elected conservatives in primary and general elections in 2010 and when she gets a chance to speak to increasing numbers of voters on her terms, it wouldn’t surprise anyone to see her number shoot right back up.
March 25th, 2011 at 4:46 pm
Shoot.
Right.
Back.
Up.
You Betcha
March 25th, 2011 at 4:56 pm
“Party ID breakdown: 41% (35%) Democrat; 28% (35%) Republican; 31% (29%) Independent/Other”
What a joke!!! Did something big happen recently to make the electorate lurch even further left. Talk about putting your thumb on the scale. Funny thing is even with that 6% democrat shift the results barely moved at all. I’m thinking Michigan is in play.
March 25th, 2011 at 5:27 pm
According to the CCN exit polls for Michigan from 2008, the party id was aprox 41,29,29. However, in 2010 snyder won the governorship by 18% and we picked up two seats there as well. No rational person could believe the party id makeup would be similar to 2008, a year when a transformational hope and change black president brought out tons of new voters. Only Daily Kos in their wildest fantasies think that scenario will repeat itself. That said what happened to cause them to swing the sample makeup to the left? This poll by itself discredits PPP for me. I used to think them reasonable.
As a follow up, I have done some homework.
-In 2000, 4,232,711 people voted in the presidential election in MI.
-In 2004, 4,839,252 voters participated in presidential election in MI. The CNN exit poll party breakdown was 39%/34%/27% DRI
-In 2008, 5,010,299 participated in the presidential election in MI with the aforementioned party makeup.
-Michigan between 2000-2010 was the only state to lose population, decreasing by .6%.
So PPP expects us to believe the party makeup will match and even be slightly to the left of 2008, a year which exceeded previous presidential election turnout in state that is losing its population due to horrid democratic mismanagement. And combine those facts with a huge republican victory in 2010.
Color me unimpressed.
March 25th, 2011 at 5:36 pm
My prediction is that Palin does not run and endorses Michelle Bachmann. That would totally screw up Pawlenty’s chances.
March 25th, 2011 at 5:39 pm
In the last poll for the candidates against Obama in MI, Romney was behind Obama by 3 points, now it is 7 points behind Obama. Huckabee was behind Obama last time by 12 points, now he’s behind Obama by 9 points. Looks like Huckabee has improved his numbers. It will be interesting to see what the numbers are between all of the candidates.
March 25th, 2011 at 6:24 pm
Michigan is in play — the sample in this poll was skewed to lean heavily for the Democrats, moreso than in 2008. Michigan went heavily Republican in the 2010 election. When you have a moment, check out the Gubernatorial map where Rick Snyder won over the Democrat candidate by nearly 600,000 votes or 18%, approximately the same percentage Obama beat McCain. (Compare to 2008 results)
http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?year=2010&fips=26&f=0&off=5&elect=0
Only 4 counties in MI went blue in 2010, two of them barely.
Michigan can be won in 2012, especially if Romney is the nominee.
March 25th, 2011 at 9:31 pm
Matt “MWS” Says:
March 25th, 2011 at 1:04 pm
Well, so much for “Mitt’s going to win us Michigan.” He’s a whopping two points better than Huck.
————————————————–
I guess we can insert this also
“Well, so much for “Huck’s going to win us Ohio.” He’s a whopping one point better than Huck.
March 25th, 2011 at 9:32 pm
Matt “MWS” Says:
March 25th, 2011 at 1:04 pm
Well, so much for “Mitt’s going to win us Michigan.” He’s a whopping two points better than Huck.
————————————————–
I guess we can insert this also
“Well, so much for “Huck’s going to win us Ohio.” He’s a whopping one point better than Mitt.
March 26th, 2011 at 10:16 am
The ONLY potential republican nominee that Obama really fears: RUDY. That is the truth.
March 26th, 2011 at 10:17 am
And Rudy, buddy, there IS an opening for you and its right between Romney and Trump! Go for it!
March 26th, 2011 at 12:38 pm
DIS IZ B.S POLL.
March 26th, 2011 at 2:35 pm
#29 … agreed…there’s no Rudy or Trump or Daniels in it. It’s TOTAL BULL.
March 26th, 2011 at 11:39 pm
As a follow up, I have done some homework.
==> You may have missed a few years. Let’s add them in
-In 2000, 4,232,711 people voted in the presidential election in MI.
==>but it dropped back to 3,177,565 votes for the Governor’s race in 2002
-In 2004, 4,839,252 voters participated in presidential election in MI. The CNN exit poll party breakdown was 39%/34%/27% DRI
==>In 2006 a million less or 3,801,256 for Granholm’s reelection (total vote)
-In 2008, 5,010,299 participated in the presidential election in MI with the aforementioned party makeup.
==>Moving forward to 2010, only 3,226,088 votes were cast in the Gov. race. That’s a huge fall-off in participation.
-Michigan between 2000-2010 was the only state to lose population, decreasing by .6%.
==>But nowhere near that number moved out to cause the decline in participation in the mid terms. Fact: most mid term elections draw in more regular and motivated voters. Not the occasional or non-committal types. The more motivated one side is, the better they’ll do. the dems were apathetic in 2010 and the republicans were fired up. That explains the MI vote quite well. You’d have to be smoking something seriously strong to think the black vote (which is still quite substantial) is going to sit on their duffs and let Obama lose in 2012. Then add into the mix (what’s left) of the union vote which is also fired up and not sitting it out either. In high turn out PRESIDENTIAL elections, Republicans lose Michigan. Plain and simple. The demographics just aren’t there.
March 27th, 2011 at 9:43 am
What I doubt is that in 2012 the same number of black voters who came out in droves to vote for the very first African-American President are going to come out to re-elect him. History already has been made. As Obama has proven to be a dismal President, I sure many Michigan voters have voters remorse over Obama as well.
The thing that is important to remember is that this poll has been skewed to heavily favor the Democrats, more so than actually voted percentage-wise in 2008, and that Romney comes closest to beating Obama in the skewed poll.