PPP (D) North Carolina 2012 Presidential Survey
- Mike Huckabee 47% {45%} [46%] (48%)
- Barack Obama 46% {49%} [45%] (44%)
- Barack Obama 47% {47%} [46%] (44%)
- Mitt Romney 44% {44%} [43%] (44%)
- Barack Obama 48% {50%} [48%] (46%)
- Newt Gingrich 44% {44%} [42%] (45%)
- Barack Obama 51% {50%} [52%] (48%)
- Sarah Palin 41% {41%} [38%] (43%)
Among Independents
- Mike Huckabee 45% {40%} [47%] (46%)
- Barack Obama 40% {51%} [37%] (37%)
- Mitt Romney 42% {39%} [37%] (50%)
- Barack Obama 41% {44%} [44%] (37%)
- Barack Obama 45% {49%} [41%] (39%)
- Newt Gingrich 38% {42%} [38%] (44%)
- Barack Obama 54% {48%} [51%] (42%)
- Sarah Palin 33% {32%} [33%] (46%)
Among Men
- Mike Huckabee 52% {49%} [51%] (55%)
- Barack Obama 44% {45%} [38%] (36%)
- Mitt Romney 49% {45%} [49%] (52%)
- Barack Obama 44% {43%} [39%] (37%)
- Newt Gingrich 49% {47%} [45%] (55%)
- Barack Obama 44% {45%} [44%] (38%)
- Barack Obama 49% {46%} [46%] (39%)
- Sarah Palin 43% {42%} [44%] (51%)
Among Women
- Barack Obama 48% {53%} [50%] (50%)
- Mike Huckabee 43% {41%} [42%] (41%)
- Barack Obama 50% {51%} [53%] (50%)
- Mitt Romney 39% {42%} [39%] (37%)
- Barack Obama 51% {53%} [52%] (53%)
- Newt Gingrich 40% {41%} [39%] (37%)
- Barack Obama 54% {53%} [56%] (55%)
- Sarah Palin 38% {40%} [33%] (35%)
Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}
- Mike Huckabee 43% {42%} [43%] (44%) / 34% {32%} [34%] (31%) {+9%}
- Mitt Romney 37% {33%} [34%] (33%) / 39% {36%} [39%] (38%) {-2%}
- Newt Gingrich 30% {34%} [35%] (34%) / 48% {45%} [47%] (43%) {-18%}
- Sarah Palin 37% {39%} [36%] (36%) / 57% {55%} [57%] (55%) {-20%}
Among Republicans
- Mike Huckabee 67% {69%} [72%] (67%) / 15% {11%} [15%] (11%) {+52%}
- Sarah Palin 71% {73%} [68%] (62%) / 23% {17%} [24%] (24%) {+48%}
- Newt Gingrich 55% {54%} [65%] (56%) / 23% {19%} [23%] (20%) {+32%}
- Mitt Romney 48% {51%} [57%] (44%) / 25% {20%} [21%] (22%) {+23%}
Among Independents
- Mike Huckabee 46% {39%} [39%] (51%) / 32% {41%} [31%] (26%) {+14%}
- Mitt Romney 45% {35%} [30%] (46%) / 36% {43%} [39%] (32%) {+9%}
- Newt Gingrich 29% {34%} [34%] (33%) / 54% {51%} [43%] (41%) {-25%}
- Sarah Palin 32% {29%} [36%] (38%) / 62% {64%} [52%] (50%) {-30%}
Among Men
- Mitt Romney 45% {37%} [36%] (39%) / 40% {36%} [47%] (39%) {+5%}
- Mike Huckabee 45% {44%} [49%] (47%) / 41% {34%} [40%] (31%) {+4%}
- Newt Gingrich 37% {38%} [40%] (43%) / 50% {46%} [50%] (41%) {-13%}
- Sarah Palin 41% {38%} [42%] (42%) / 54% {54%} [54%] (50%) {-16%}
Among Women
- Mike Huckabee 40% {41%} [38%] (41%) / 28% {31%} [28%] (31%) {+12%}
- Mitt Romney 29% {31%} [32%] (29%) / 38% {36%} [32%] (38%) {-9%}
- Newt Gingrich 24% {31%} [31%] (26%) / 46% {44%} [45%] (45%) {-22%}
- Sarah Palin 34% {39%} [31%] (30%) / 60% {55%} [60%] (60%) {-26%}
Do you approve or disapprove of President Barack Obama’s job performance?
- Approve 47% {49%} [46%] (45%)
- Disapprove 48% {47%} [49%] (51%)
Survey of 650 North Carolina voters was conducted February 16-21, 2011. The margin of error is +/- 3.8 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted January 20-23, 2011 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted December 17-19, 2010 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted November 19-21, 2010 are in parentheses. Party ID breakdown: 45% {47%} [46%] (49%) Democrat; 37% {36%} [34%] (35%) Republican; 18% {18%} [21%] (17%) Independent/Other.
-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal.
February 23rd, 2011 at 2:40 pm
Nice trends lately and now in Carolina, too.
North Carolina 2012
•Mike Huckabee 47% {45%}
•Barack Obama 46% {49%}
Among Independents
•Mike Huckabee 45% {40%}
•Barack Obama 40% {51%}
February 23rd, 2011 at 2:51 pm
Huckabee: I Can Beat Obama
Wednesday, 23 Feb 2011 08:22 AM
February 23rd, 2011 at 3:00 pm
I’m not surprised that Huckabee is doing well against Obama in a southern state – especially since it is also a “right to work” state.
Speaking of right to work states…how about one of our savvy computer techs do up a blog using this map and comparing the unemployed/underemployed rates in states from each group???
February 23rd, 2011 at 3:01 pm
Wow, someone needs to work on those North Carolinian women!
And it shouldn’t be Sarah or Newt for that kind of tough job..
Among Women
•Newt Gingrich 24% {31%} / 46% {44%} {-22%}
•Sarah Palin 34% {39%} / 60% {55%} {-26%}
..it needs to be Huck, hands down
•Mike Huckabee 40% {41%} / 28% {31%} {+12%}
February 23rd, 2011 at 3:05 pm
If anyone takes up my suggestion in #3 – please include which states are meeting their budgets and which are facing deficits.
February 23rd, 2011 at 3:13 pm
Granny T,
They might as well call that the Forced-Unionism map until we get more on our side. I thought we had Daniels and Indiana to make it 23 Right-To-Work states but Mitch changed his mind.
Is he now having second thoughts or is it too late? And what is the unemployment number in Indiana?
February 23rd, 2011 at 3:18 pm
Hey, Max, I thought there was NO WAY Huckabee was running for President!!!!
February 23rd, 2011 at 3:21 pm
2008 Presidential General Election Results – North Carolina
Obama/Biden 2,142,651 (49.70%)
McCain/Palin 2,128,474 (49.38%)
http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/index.html
February 23rd, 2011 at 3:35 pm
This is breathing life into the possibility of a huckabee run. He might be our last hope…daniels keeps hurting himself. Barbour isn’t very electable. Palin can’t win a general. Out of all the viable candidates, he seems to be our best shot…and we need obama out of the white house. Change course now. I’m starting to get on board myself…it’s happening later than last time for me though. I had pretty much settled into the huckabee camp already at this point….i was kind of on the fence for mccain(because of electability) but i’m probably landing with huck whole heartedly this time. It’s hard to say…but, yes, it is time.
COUNT ME IN THE HUCK CAMP…ONCE AGAIN!
February 23rd, 2011 at 3:42 pm
#9 Count me in too. If he runs, he’s got my support. And let’s just say I truly hope he runs.
February 23rd, 2011 at 3:43 pm
Welcome, wateredseeds!
Make yourself at home
February 23rd, 2011 at 3:44 pm
Wow, everyone performed terribly. Should be up at least 5 points in NC to win nationally.
February 23rd, 2011 at 3:45 pm
Obama’s approval going down brings the GOP back up, going back up brings the GOP back down. Huckabee by one right now sounds right. Romney’s favorables still low with Republicans and good with Independents. Still, only winning back the easiest purple state by one point isn’t a cause for celebration. Palin just bites. That’s about it with her.
February 23rd, 2011 at 3:55 pm
It’s very sad that we don’t have more candidates that can win North Carolina. Folks…it’s pretty hard to win the presidency as a republican, without North Carolina. Huck is gonna be our best shot acrossed the board.
February 23rd, 2011 at 3:55 pm
9.wateredseeds Says:
February 23rd, 2011 at 3:35 pm
Like John, I say.. welcome aboard, my friend!!!
February 23rd, 2011 at 3:57 pm
Jeff is next to join the Huck team.
February 23rd, 2011 at 3:57 pm
When we see North Carolina looking like Huckabee by 7, Romney by 3, Gingrich by 1, Palin by 5, then we feel optimistic.
February 23rd, 2011 at 4:01 pm
Please post this on R42012 and Facebook. Thanks.
Gallup: A three-way GOP horserace
2/23/11 3:28 PM
• 18 percent of Republicans and R-leaning independents support Mike Huckabee for president
• 16 percent support Mitt Romney, and 16 percent support Sarah Palin
• 14 percent have no opinion. No one else breaks single-digits.
• Huckabee’s support has grown since September, Romney’s has slipped, and Palin’s has stayed flat.
• Palin leads among those who didn’t graduate college.
• Romney leads among those who make at least $90,000 a year. Palin leads among those who make less.
• Huckabee leads in the South and the Midwest.
Gallup national poll released Wednesday of 1,326 Republicans and Republican-leaning independents.
February 23rd, 2011 at 4:03 pm
http://www.politico.com/2012-election/perm/0211/110223_gallup_numbers.html
February 23rd, 2011 at 4:05 pm
Jeff,
I’m not optimistic at all…we should be beating the holy heck out of Obama right now, and we aren’t. This is where i blame bush, and the republicans of the 2000′s. They blew it for the party…and now people are very weary of getting on board with any republican. They’re looking for an independantly minded republican, that has conservative values…but is okay with throwing the party under the bus for the constitution.
February 23rd, 2011 at 4:05 pm
http://www.gallup.com/poll/146300/Huckabee-Palin-Romney-Tie-Lead-GOP-Preferences.aspx
February 23rd, 2011 at 4:08 pm
There aren’t wide differences among the top competitors among different subgroups of Republicans, though Huckabee fares slightly better among core Republican identifiers than among Republican-leaning independents, among conservatives than among liberals or moderates, and among frequent than among less frequent churchgoers, and among Southerners.
Palin has greater appeal to college nongraduates than college graduates and to lower- and middle-income Republicans than upper-income Republicans. To date, there is not a pronounced gender gap in Palin’s support.
Older Republicans are significantly more likely than younger Republicans to support Romney
February 23rd, 2011 at 4:09 pm
If Huck runs, he wins IA. If Huck doesn’t run, TPaw wins IA. Unless some white knight comes in.
February 23rd, 2011 at 4:13 pm
Re: New Gallup Poll..
I think Huck could easily surge to 25-30 this summer once Palin officially decides not to run this cycle.
February 23rd, 2011 at 4:16 pm
Shouldn’t Romney be at 17% if 17% of Tea Party and non Tea Party support Romney? Just being a little nit picky.
February 23rd, 2011 at 4:16 pm
Palin isn’t going to sit. She loathes Huckabee just as much as he loathes Romney. That’s her motivator. lol
February 23rd, 2011 at 4:17 pm
The five point swing trend from down 4 to up 1) between Huck and Obama should not be discounted so easily.
Although I’m sure they will at the Daily Kos.
February 23rd, 2011 at 4:19 pm
Steven, you must have missed what she said in that leaked email today about Huck.
February 23rd, 2011 at 4:22 pm
East: Romney/Palin 20, Huckabee 13
South: Huckabee 25, Palin 14, Romney 13
Midwest: Huckabee 20, Palin 16, Romney 13
West: Romney 21, Palin 16, Huckabee 11
First question I have: What are the Great Lakes states considered? Mix of East and Midwest?
Observation: Huckabee strongest two regions are South, Midwest.
Romney strongest regions are West, East.
Palin strongest in East, then West.
February 23rd, 2011 at 4:30 pm
Great Lakes are Midwest.
February 23rd, 2011 at 4:32 pm
Yes and no. I don’t consider Michigan and Ohio as Midwest. Minnesota and Wisconsin, yes.
February 23rd, 2011 at 4:43 pm
Here is a link I use often to see where the regions are divided.
February 23rd, 2011 at 4:47 pm
East: Romney/Palin 20, Huckabee 13
South: Huckabee 25, Palin 14, Romney 13
Midwest: Huckabee 20, Palin 16, Romney 13
West: Romney 21, Palin 16, Huckabee 11
This goes very well with the information I’ve collected. I will be writing up another blog when we get the data from the 2 states that PPP polled last weekend plus updating the info and coloring in SD for Palin now that we know Thune isn’t running.
February 23rd, 2011 at 4:49 pm
I should have said “pretty well” or “fairly well” rather than “very well”.
February 23rd, 2011 at 4:49 pm
Gallup might be waiting to release a 50 states GOP poll like they do with Obama’s favorables. The poll would be compiled of the last 12 months. PPP(D) would be diminished if Gallup did that poll.
February 23rd, 2011 at 4:50 pm
I know Craig would love to see those numbers.
February 23rd, 2011 at 4:52 pm
Thanks, Granny..
Cool map
February 23rd, 2011 at 4:52 pm
Steven,
It’s all about the trends.
February 23rd, 2011 at 4:55 pm
Steven,
Here is the link for Census.gov pdf file for region divisions (which is where wikipedia got the map from)
Michigan and Ohio are Midwest states.
February 23rd, 2011 at 5:09 pm
When Gallup dissects these national numbers to state numbers, we’ll see who is strong where.
February 23rd, 2011 at 5:25 pm
We can compare the state polls from PPP with Gallup.
February 23rd, 2011 at 5:28 pm
Old ‘easy out’ is being swayed by polls.
We are doomed!
Huckabee is as good a republican as he is a bass player…and that’s the problem.
February 23rd, 2011 at 5:33 pm
Steven,
We already know that Huck is strongest in the entire South including FL & TX. Plus in 90% of the Midwest, and throw in the huge Northeastern state of PA for kicks.
Game. Set. Match.
February 23rd, 2011 at 5:35 pm
Unless you wear a tin-foil hat like Teledude in bizzaro world where Palin is Queen.
February 23rd, 2011 at 5:37 pm
Funds a concern for Huck
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0211/49905.html
Karen Tumulty’s piece on Mike Huckabee today makes abundantly clear that he has little appetite to dive back into presidential politics. There was one line in particular that illustrated why a second run appears increasingly unlikely.
Asked how he’d run differently in 2012, the former Arkansas governor told Tumulty: “Money — lots of it. One thing I’m certainly going to gauge over the next few months is, would there be substantial financial support. … I don’t plan to jump in a pool that has no water.”
February 23rd, 2011 at 5:38 pm
Huckabee = Bob Dole, without the humor.
February 23rd, 2011 at 5:40 pm
But here in the real world, every pollster on the planet knows the truth..
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_palin_vs_obama-1169.html
February 23rd, 2011 at 5:41 pm
Oil hit $100/barrel today.
I wonder what gasoline prices will be in the next year or so…
Is there a candidate that has expressed an idea on what to do about our dependence on foreign oil?
anyone?
Drill, baby, drill!
February 23rd, 2011 at 5:43 pm
curious…
If Huck is so popular…why does he struggle so to raise funds?
February 23rd, 2011 at 5:43 pm
Admit it, Teledude..
You need Huck out or Palin is toast.
Newsflash: She’s toast either way.
February 23rd, 2011 at 5:44 pm
He won’t struggle after key wins in Iowa, SC, and Florida!
February 23rd, 2011 at 5:45 pm
Rudy Giuliani was the front runner at this point in the last election cycle.
How did president Giuliani do?
oh, wait…
It’s WAY too early to put ANY credence in these polls. They are for losers.
February 23rd, 2011 at 5:52 pm
Romney wins Florida, Huckabee doesn’t have enough money and support to win it.
February 23rd, 2011 at 5:56 pm
The winner of South Carolina wins Florida! Unstoppable momentum, baby!
February 23rd, 2011 at 6:00 pm
teledude,
That’s a horrible comparison to make. Guiliani didn’t have much support in any of the first 5 contests. He was trying to run a national campaign…but forgot to get a ticket out of iowa or new hampshire. You have to be top 3 in 1 of those states to move forward. He didn’t come in the top 3 in any state until florida. And at that point…his only shot was to WIN BIG in florida. Huck already is the consensus #1 in New hampshire…and a definitive top 2 in South Carolina. Either way, he gets farther than Guiliani got.
February 23rd, 2011 at 6:01 pm
teledude,
I’d also like to say…that losers are the people that don’t win. I was a loser last time….but not on the night of the iowa caucus
This time, i don’t plan on being a loser….but i’m gonna remember you said that.
February 23rd, 2011 at 6:01 pm
Rudy was a regional candidate with a terrible strategy to skip IA and SC..
Huck has both the South and the Midwest. Throw in Pennsylvania!
http://www.wiserepublic.com/4527/viewing-the-2012-gop-race/#comment-2898
February 23rd, 2011 at 6:24 pm
“Karen Tumulty’s piece on Mike Huckabee today makes abundantly clear that he has little appetite to dive back into presidential politics.”
And yet Huck makes the claim that he can beat Obama. So who should we believe, his words or your analysis, which already has been proven to be highly suspicious.
February 23rd, 2011 at 9:36 pm
Lets analyze this.
Obama is facing a stagnate economy.
Trouble looms in the Arab country.
Obama has yet learn how to solve a pressing problem
Huckabee is shown as the best positioned challenger so this must mean he isn’t running.
Riiiiiiiiiight.
And pigs fly.
February 24th, 2011 at 1:51 am
PPP is a Leftist firm, based in North Carolina, that slants its polls toward Huckabee anyway. This is a garbage poll.
February 24th, 2011 at 12:46 pm
On 55, obviously i meant huck is #1 in iowa not new hampshire….maybe i was dreaming that romney might not run. LOL! We know he’s running.
February 24th, 2011 at 12:53 pm
60.
Except whenever Romney wins a PPP poll, you’re the first in line on a thread to gloat.
You are such a chronic whiner and excuse-maker otherwise, my friend.
You should work on that.