Texas’ redistricting numbers are in, and they don’t look great for GOP hopes of creating up to four new Republican districts in the state. Almost all of Texas’ population growth has come from minorities, and Hispanics in particular. For the first time in the state’s history, Texas is now a majority-minority state, and the new round of redistricting will likely create at least one, and probably two majority-minority districts in Texas.
For many Democrats, and many in the national political media, population growth in Texas’ Hispanic community ibso facto will lead to Texas becoming a less red state over time, eventually making it a swing state. This would, as I don’t need to tell anyone, be a real disaster for the GOP, and for conservatism, and an absolute wind-fall for progressives.
So, is Texas on it’s way to becoming the next California, or even a bigger version of New Mexico? I’m skeptical for a couple of reasons. First of all, the Texas GOP seems to have been, from my admittedly non-Texan perspective, at least marginally better at winning Hispanics than neighboring parties. Rick Perry, not exactly the most moderate GOP’er in the state, got a fairly respectable 38 percent of the Hispanic vote in his last election, and I believe George W. Bush did even better in his gubernatorial runs. Encouragingly, two of Texas’ Republican freshman, Quico Canseco and Bill Flores, are Hispanic, and Blake Farenthold managed to squeak by in a majority Hispanic district. Better still, Republicans are making small but real gains in the number of local Hispanic Republican officials, and the effort to increase this number even more has an excellent spokesman in George P. Bush. The recent defection of conservative Hispanic legislator Aaron Pena is also a good sign for two reasons. First, it indicates that some of the elected Hispanic legislators who are Democrats now are actually pretty conservative; many Democrats, after all, are liberal enough to make a party switch impractical. Second, it indicates that Pena, who is nobody’s fool politically, thinks that the best place for a Hispanic legislator in Texas is the Republican party.
This brings me to the second of three reasons I’m not unduly pessimistic about Texas. Namely, it seems as though the Hispanic population of Texas is not directly analogous to that found in California. I would be interested, for example, in how many Texan Hispanic legislators are members of groups like the American Legislative Exchange Counsel, and how their voting records stack up against their Californian counterparts. My sense–and this is without looking at the demographic data at all–is that the average Texan Hispanic is more rural than his/her Californian counterpart, which will also change voting patterns. Finally, it’s important to point out that terms like “Hispanic” “Latino” or even “Mexican immigrant” can be quite misleading. There’s a lot of variation in even the most narrow of these terms, and it would not be surprising to see different voting patterns develop among Hispanics in Texas and California.
Part of the reason for this difference is also the third reason why I’m somewhat more optimistic about Texas than the national media. Bluntly put, Texas is such a very distinctive culture in it’s own right that a certain amount of assimilation is going to happen. California has a pre-existing multicultural sensibility, and a pretty liberal culture among whites. Other areas with high Hispanic/Latino populations often also have a fairly liberal culture (e.g…, New York). There may be examples of areas in which fairly conservative states or regions have been transformed into liberal ones by immigration in American history, but I struggle to think of them (internal emigration is a different matter; I’m frankly more concerned about some of the mountain west states getting deluged by wealthy white liberal Californians fleeing from–and exporting with them–the conditions which make the golden state less of a friendly place to live every year). In all likelihood, Texan Hispanics will–to a greater degree than their fellow Hispanics in less crimson red states–assimilate the politics and some of the culture of their neighbors.
Despite this cautious case for optimism, I do remain concerned for one reason which almost over-rides the rest. Namely, the Republican party has an uncanny ability to screw things up when it comes to any kind of minority outreach. It repeatedly and routinely fails to grasp the most basic principal of minority outreach–which I laid out previously–showing up and listening. It’s politicians routinely and consistently tend to take principled stands–a desire to control the border for example–and express them in frankly horrifying and border-line racist ways. Finally, it’s committees, county chairs and strategists consistently and routinely develop strategies based on winning elections without minority voters, and which exclude any meaningful attempt to build the party in minority areas. While this seems like a reasonable strategy in any given electoral cycle, it amounts to a death-trap in the long-run. Thus, if anything, it is my hope that the arguments I’ve made above will convince not only the Texas GOP, but parties across the country, that minority outreach can be done. Texas, rather than an example of how “demographic destiny” pushed the Republican party and conservative movement into the dust-bin of history, has an opportunity to demonstrate how conservatism and the Republican party can truly represent and reach out to all Americans. Here’s hoping they’re up to the challenge.
February 17th, 2011 at 9:58 pm
I think the problem we run into is that many Hispanics – particularly illegals, feel a sense of entitlement to half the land west of the Mississippi River. A fair few also seem to have the idea that America is a new place where you can move to and stay, 4ex, Mexican – rather than a place you come to, assimilate, and become American (I do not agree with those who say there is no true American identity). For liberals, who generally have no problem calling Western European society flawed, that isn’t a problem….for Republicans, it is.
As I’ve advocated on here before – I believe the best solution is to take the lead on immigration reform through an indirect route: establish a temporary-residency guest worker program for Central and South American nationals who can come live and work for the United States for a year at a time, then return home. Include a tamper proof ID, and you can both meet the demand for migrant labor, and eliminate any reason for companies to hire illegals. Severe penalties would further decrease the incentive, and if they can’t find work, many illegals will simply leave.
Of course – since the program would be open primraily to hispanics, nobody could accuse the advocates of being racist, and those who opposed it in favor of legalizing those here would be forced into the unsavory position of supporting, just out of sympathy, people who knowingly, willingly, and in many cases, repeatedly – broke US law.
February 17th, 2011 at 10:04 pm
Ron Paul’s district is both 45% rural (relatively high) and 32% hispanic.
February 17th, 2011 at 10:07 pm
On the whole, the most Hispanic districts in TX tend to be more rural, but even the most rural districts are at least 10% Hispanic.
So I suspect that there are a fair amount more rural Hispanics in TX than in CA. I think they are also less concentrated in TX than CA.
February 17th, 2011 at 10:08 pm
Matt: I tend to agree about a guest-worker program. As for the issue of American identity, Texas is a good test case, as it has both one of the strongest senses of identity in the country and one of the longest borders. I do find it interesting that Perry is a pretty strong border hawk, but was not really on board with SB 1070.
MWS: Interesting. I get the sense that isn’t that unusual a profile in TX these days.
February 17th, 2011 at 10:10 pm
And your second comment seems to confirm this. I suspect that the urban-rural divide is going to end up counting for as much, if not more than, some nebulous sense of racial solidarity. Of course, I definitely could be wrong: MS and GA have a lot of rural African-American voters who vote just as Democrat as urban African-Americans do. But I think the Democrats are assuming Hispanics will turn out to be just like African-Americans for them, and I’m really not sure they’re right.
February 17th, 2011 at 10:20 pm
2,
Yes – but there is NO WAY that the VOTING population is 32 percent Hispanic.
February 17th, 2011 at 10:24 pm
The rural Mexican explanation doesnt work too well. Most Mexican immigrants to the California’s Central Valley are from very rural parts of Mexico. Yet they overwhelmingly vote democratic once gaining citizenship.
The real explanation hit on here why the Texas situation is NOT analogous to CA/Urban North East are the NON-Hispanic whites. Whites in TX are FAR more likely to vote Republican than their Coastal counterparts. Dramatically more likely outside of certain urban areas in TX for that matter. Since the Non-hispanic whites make up an absolute majority of voters and a majority of them vote Republican, Republican victories in the near term are still quite likely. Dems will chip away at areas where Hispanic growth has lead to majority Hispanic districts as well as those where non-hispanic white liberal voters (yes they exist) congregate in TX. Think Austin. Long term this strategy won’t work if Democratic leaning population grows faster than the Republican one but in the short term no great worries. Just concern
February 17th, 2011 at 10:33 pm
McCain won 35% of the Latino vote in TX, and 23% in CA, so it would appear TX Hispanics are a little more conservative than their CA counterparts.
February 17th, 2011 at 11:58 pm
Short-term, the only question on the table is whether the 4 new districts split 3-1 Republican or split evenly. Dems seem pretty cocky that they will split 2-2, but my sense is that they will split 3-1, giving us a gain of 2 seats.
Longer-term, assimilation does seem to be occurring. In California, Hispanic leaders who want to be part of the majority and have some real power HAVE to become Democrats. In Texas, the same type of Hispanics have to become Republicans. In the process, they reflexively adopt Conservative ideological positions until they’re fully hardwired into their central nervous systems.
Resistance is futile.
February 18th, 2011 at 2:57 am
I’ve done a lot of business throughout the great state of Texas over the years and whether they be White, Black, or Hispanic ..they are all Conservative Republicans for the most part in that big state.
And therefore, it’s gonna be a Huck state for 2012. As the recent polling clearly shows.
February 18th, 2011 at 3:02 am
Well, maybe not the blacks so much (although the higher income black folks I dealt with in Houston, Dallas, San Antonio, and Austin were), but remember Huckabee did receive 45% of the back vote in neighboring Arkansas.
February 18th, 2011 at 3:05 am
AND we need to make inroads into all minority groups; black, hispanic, asian, and others to defeat Obama in ’12.
February 18th, 2011 at 3:36 am
I’d guess that Texas Hispanics are more assimilated into a Republican culture.
—-
“I’m frankly more concerned about some of the mountain west states getting deluged by wealthy white liberal Californians fleeing from–and exporting with them–the conditions which make the golden state less of a friendly place to live every year”
My dad’s a native of Utah and he says back when he was young the state didn’t have awful, rude, selfish drivers it has today – Californians did that.
I would fully support a measure barring Californians from leaving California unless they can prove a ten year long Republican voting record. Let them reap the evil they have sown.
It’s pretty apparent to me that California, the heart of the beast, is spreading too quickly its corrupting influence in the region. It’s very ideological core – a state dedicated since its inception to the vain pursuit of money from whence springs all other evils – is an enemy to good society across America and the world, to whom it exports its immoral, society-destroying values. For the sake of perserving what is good about our own and all other cultures and societies across the globe, I cannot wish their model a quick enough demise. They have polluted the whole earth with their corruption. California is influential because it has been rich and powerful and is the chief evangelist of these values. When California is completely broken and decaying, it will lose all sway it had. When California has to beg for bailouts like the banks but other states threaten their legislators with being run out of town the minute they think about it, it’s days will be over. “As California goes…” everyone else should go in the opposite direction.
February 18th, 2011 at 8:12 am
MPC,
So you’re not a Dodgers fan?
February 18th, 2011 at 10:40 am
Go Dodgers! Go Angels! Go LA NFL team – if we ever get one!
Go 7th largest economy in the world!
But yeah, MPC is probably right. Cali ain’t what it used to be.
February 18th, 2011 at 10:59 am
My explanation wasn’t that the Mexican immigrants in Texas started out rural, but rather that they settled in rural areas, and will likely assimilate more to rural values (though I’ll admit it’s the part of the argument I’m least certain about).
I would also say that I don’t think any of these processes–either the Republicanization of Hispanics in Texas or the Democraticization of their Californian counterparts, is going to be automatic. There’s a lot of room for things to go in a completely different direction. We still need to show up, listen and work the ground game. But I think, in Texas, we’ve got a real opportunity to make sure that the “gi’me Democratic districts” redistricting will create in Hispanic areas turn out to be nothing of the kind.
February 18th, 2011 at 7:03 pm
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December 27th, 2011 at 3:16 pm
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