UNH/WMUR New Hampshire 2012 Presidential Survey
Republican Primary
- Mitt Romney 40% (41%)
- Rudy Giuliani 10% (11%)
- Tim Pawlenty 7% (3%)
- Mike Huckabee 7% (9%)
- Newt Gingrich 6% (5%)
- Sarah Palin 6% (12%)
- Ron Paul 5%
- Donald Trump 3%
- Rick Santorum 1% (2%)
- Haley Barbour 1%
General Election
- Mitt Romney 49%
- Barack Obama 41%
- Barack Obama 44%
- Tim Pawlenty 37%
- Barack Obama 57%
- Sarah Palin 34%
Survey of 757 New Hampshire adults, including a subsample of 357 likely Republican primary voters, was conducted January 28 – February 7, 2011. The margin of error is +/- 3.5 percentage points among all adults; +/- 5.2 percentage points among GOP primary voters. Results from the poll conducted April 18-28, 2010 are in parentheses. ?
-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal.
February 14th, 2011 at 7:52 pm
I apologize for the lack of space between the Democrat numbers and the general election numbers. For some reason it isn’t letting me put a space there.
February 14th, 2011 at 7:55 pm
GO MITT!
February 14th, 2011 at 7:55 pm
Darn you, Tim Pawlenty!!!
February 14th, 2011 at 7:58 pm
Santorum and Barbour are eating into Huck’s support.
I’d like to see the “Favorables”.
February 14th, 2011 at 8:05 pm
Compare to Magellan Stategies poll of NH earlier today…
According to a Magellan Strategies poll (pdf), Barack Obama leads all major Republican rivals in New Hampshire, although Mitt Romney makes a contest of it.
a. Barack Obama 48% Mitt Romney 44%
b. Barack Obama 51% Mike Huckabee 38%
c. Barack Obama 57% Sarah Palin 34%
d. Barack Obama 56% Newt Gingrich 33%
.
Favorability Ratings
a. Barack Obama 52%/44% for +8%.
b. Mike Huckabee 42%/39% for +3%.
c. Mitt Romney 45%/44% for +1%.
d. Sarah Palin 36%/61% for -25%.
e. Newt Gingrich 29%/59% for -30%.
-GOP 12
February 14th, 2011 at 8:17 pm
WMUR:
UNH Survey Center began tracking the race in February 2009:
“Romney is doing well in part because his brand of Republicanism fits with most New Hampshire Republicans, who can be characterized as ‘Rockefeller Republicans,’” said Andrew Smith, director of the UNH Survey Center. “New Hampshire is one of the least religious states in the country, and social conservatives have difficulty winning here. Fiscal issues are much more potent in the Granite State.”
“While Romney has a strong lead, Smith said it’s too early to make predictions about who will win the primary. He said 78 percent of likely Republican primary voters said they are still trying to decide who to vote for, an only 7 percent said they had definitely made up their minds.”
NET Republican Favorability Ratings in NH
Romney +57%
Giuliani +30%
Pawlenty +25%
Huckabee +22%
Barbour&Daniels -1% (each)
Gary Johnson -5%
Sarahcuda -17%
The Donald -43%
February 14th, 2011 at 8:21 pm
40 percent is very low for right now; Mitt’s definitely beatable. If the right candidate wins in IA, he most likely could pull off a hat trick and get NH as well.
February 14th, 2011 at 8:24 pm
The fact that Romney beats Obama in the general election in New Hampshire shows that the Granite State is winnable in 2012, at least in the event of a strong nominee. If Republicans win the Obama states of IN, OH, VA, NC, FL, and NH, along with NE-2, which we lost last time as well, that would give us 270 electoral votes without winning back IA, and while losing CO, NV, and NM.
February 14th, 2011 at 8:25 pm
Against Palin, Obama does much better, leading 57 to 34 percent.
===
Wow, so two different pollsters today came up with the same exact numbers?
Magellan Strategies NH: Obama 57% .. Palin 34%
WMUR/UNH New Hampshire: Obama 57% .. Palin 34%
February 14th, 2011 at 8:31 pm
Dave Gaultier Says:
February 14th, 2011 at 8:24 pm
===
Dave G.,
We have a much better shot moving Iowa, in the heart of the Midwest back to red with the right candidate than the northeastern state of NH, imo.
Again THIS is Obama’s nightmare while scaring him in PA (as the polls show there), too:
http://mjosephsheppardrecoveringliberal.files.wordpress.com/2010/11/snipmap.jpg
February 14th, 2011 at 8:32 pm
letme,
“If the right candidate wins in IA, he most likely could pull off a hat trick and get NH as well.”
Nobody has ever done that in a contested primary.
February 14th, 2011 at 8:34 pm
MWS–interesting stuff.
February 14th, 2011 at 8:34 pm
Important point, Matt. It really is.
February 14th, 2011 at 8:34 pm
Very impressive showing for TPaw. I’m pretty surprised he’s showing better here right now than Iowa.
February 14th, 2011 at 8:42 pm
14.
Matt,
Yes, it is.
I think by now Tim is on a first name basis with everyone at Manchester-Boston Regional Airport.
February 14th, 2011 at 8:47 pm
We have a much better shot moving Iowa, in the heart of the Midwest back to red with the right candidate than the northeastern state of NH, imo.
Yeah, but New Hampshire is sort of its own animal. Plus it’s the sort of state that would defect to the GOP during a year in which the debt is the primary issue.
February 14th, 2011 at 8:50 pm
Nobody mentioning Rudy in 2nd place? At a higher percentage than he finished last time?
This is the best thing I’ve seen for Rudy this election cycle.
GO RUDY!!!
February 14th, 2011 at 8:54 pm
This is actually good news for Giuliani. Republicans hold a +30% favorability in a state he supposedly “burned bridges”. He’s not even a truly serious candidate and he stills manages for than people who’s name have been out there forever. I wonder if it’ll influence his decision.
February 14th, 2011 at 8:55 pm
14
MWS,
I think I’ve mentioned this before, but as a transplanted Iowegian, I can tell you that Iowans are generally not all that crazy about their northern neighbors. TPaw has his work cut out for him in Iowa.
February 14th, 2011 at 9:01 pm
#17–enough for him to jump in? He seems like he’s itching to run again.
February 14th, 2011 at 9:31 pm
7, you’re immediately and completely discredited because you don’t know what a hat trick is. How can you win three contests when NH is only the second of the cycle?
February 14th, 2011 at 9:43 pm
#21–duly noted spazz–was just making a simple point. Guess I’ll have to triple check everything from now on……
February 14th, 2011 at 9:54 pm
Metro,
Never let the dream die.
February 14th, 2011 at 9:55 pm
mac,
I don’t think I knew that about “Iowegians.”
February 14th, 2011 at 9:57 pm
#23: For months I’ve generally felt a Rudy run was futile. But this has me rethinking that. He finished NH with 8.6% last time, and now he’s polling at 10%, with high favorability ratings. And that’s without a new campaign.
February 14th, 2011 at 10:09 pm
DaveG-
Correct me if I’m wrong but I believe NE changed their election laws away from EC’s by CD. I believe in 2012 the winner of the General will take all of NE’s Electoral College votes and the Congressional District breakdown will no longer matter.
February 14th, 2011 at 10:14 pm
Metro,
Yes, but it’s also a poll with only two candidates who have already run serious campaigns there- Mitt and Rudy.
February 14th, 2011 at 10:15 pm
Ray,
That makes sense, considering NE is dominated by Republicans and it can only cost the Republican nominee. I don’t know why they did it to begin with.
February 14th, 2011 at 10:17 pm
Metro,
So if Rudy does run again, what kind of campaign should he run? Should he stress national security like last time, or push more on the administrator theme?
February 14th, 2011 at 10:22 pm
Matt-
I wish I could cite my source on that bit of information but I link to way too many political websites to remember which it was.
February 14th, 2011 at 10:37 pm
Ray,
On the other hand, if Palin is our nominee, proportional allocation might be our only shot at getting any electoral votes in Nebraska. Did you see that poll a couple weeks ago? Palin and Obama were neck and neck……… in Nebraska.
February 14th, 2011 at 11:11 pm
#29 Chopping bureaucracy as he did in NYC. Turning around the US like he did NYC. That’s a much bigger turnaround that Mitt every accomplished, and in government, against political adversity.
February 14th, 2011 at 11:14 pm
•Sarah Palin 6% (12%)
===
Oh my goodness.. 12 to 6.
Can it get any worse?
February 14th, 2011 at 11:16 pm
As I always say:
RUNRUDYRUN! ..in my Forrest Gump movie script kinda voice.
February 14th, 2011 at 11:23 pm
[...] This post was mentioned on Twitter by Mitt Romney in 2012!, comMITTed to Romney and beachroses, Monica Vela. Monica Vela said: RT @C0MM1TT3D: Poll Watch: WMUR/UNH New Hampshire Primary Poll http://race42012.com/2011/02/14/wmurunh-new-hampshire-primary-poll/ [...]
February 14th, 2011 at 11:33 pm
It’s true that 10% is more than the percentage Rudy achieved in 2008 in NH, but it’s less than he was getting in polls before he dropped out shortly before the primary.
This poll, as well as every other poll conducted in the state, shows that Mitt has a lock on the first primary in the nation.
February 15th, 2011 at 12:25 am
#7…Well Waffle Man, I thank my lucky stars the polls in Iowa don’t show Romney lossing to Huckabee 40% to 7%…
February 15th, 2011 at 1:11 am
Nah, he’ll just lose in IA and SC again to Huck like this again ….
Mike Huckabee … 34.41%
Mitt Romney … 25.23%
Mike Huckabee … 29.84%
Mitt Romney … 15.30%
February 15th, 2011 at 5:40 am
#38……Huck has to decide to get in the race first.
Time is ticking away and the Squirrel Man of Arkansas is not gathering any nuts…
February 15th, 2011 at 5:42 am
Metro has your memory failed you already?
4 years ago Rudy was at 30%+ in NH before getting what 5% AFTER he campaigned there! Unfortunately Rudy is about the only politician around who actually does worse by campaigning
.
February 15th, 2011 at 5:44 am
Craig, your utter dependence on SC is beginning to look like Giuliani’s Florida strategy.
Something tells me Romney will be doing better than 15.30% in SC this time…and that’s assuming Huck is running….something that is looking less likely every day.
Tick…tick…tick…
February 15th, 2011 at 6:44 am
Matt,
That is an excellent point regarding Palin in Nebraska. Maybe if we make all 50 states switch to proportional allotment then maybe Palin might not lose as bad as Goldwater did.
February 15th, 2011 at 12:49 pm
I don’t believe Nebraska has made that official yet. They are still discussing it. As someone who grew up in Nebraska(but now lives in the much more conservative Wyoming), i know that generally most nebraskan’s were pissed that Obama got an EV from the state. It will more than likely end up changing…as the last time i think that Nebraska voted Dem, was for Kennedy.
January 29th, 2012 at 6:30 pm
is enough for now.a note on minoxidil…
useof course, there is a drawback with using minoxidil to regrow your hair. you’ll have to use it daily, forever. its been shown that a few months after minoxidil use has ceased, any hair regrown with it will start to shed….