PPP’s has just released their latest horse race poll of 2012 GOP Presidential hopefuls for the state of Arizona.
| (AZ Horse Race) | % |
| Daniels | 2 |
| Gingrich | 15 |
| Huckabee | 19 |
| Palin | 15 |
| Paul | 5 |
| Pawlenty | 4 |
| Romney | 23 |
| Thune | 1 |
| Other/Undec. | 16 |
As expected, Mitt Romney won. However, his margin over Mike Huckabee is only 4%, hardly cause for celebration in Mitt-land. Gingrich and Palin are both 8% down, however.
February 5th, 2011 at 11:55 am
Huckabee is DOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOMED!!
As Matt would say.
February 5th, 2011 at 11:56 am
Thune and Daniels 3% combined is impressive.
February 5th, 2011 at 11:59 am
Darn it, T & D were going to be my Romnery stoppers.
What do we have to do around here?
Bring in the Ambassador of China to do the job?
February 5th, 2011 at 12:03 pm
Other/Undec 16% = AKA Huntsman’s Base
February 5th, 2011 at 12:06 pm
All of the following is from our friend John over at Huck’s Army..
A new PPP poll from Arizona has come out:
Romney 23 % (-6)
Huckabee 19 % (+5)
Newt Gingrich 15 % (-1)
Sarah Palin 15 % (-3)
Ron Paul 5 % (NC)
Tim Pawlenty 4% (+1)
Mitch Daniels 2 % (NA)
John Thune 1 % (NA)
As we can see, of the top candidates, only Huckabee has gained since the last poll (from june). Romney is dropping here too, even if he is still leading the field. Palin is losing support as well, which is kind of what I suspected.
Margin of error is 4.9 % (that is for the entire poll, not for every single candidate).
Note: Daniels and Thune were not included in the last poll.
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Thanks, John G.
February 5th, 2011 at 12:24 pm
Craig,
What your friend John is pointing out is exactly what is happening nearly everywhere else to everybody. He could have just as easily quoted numbers from big Huckabee states showing erosion of Mike’s numbers.
Big leads tend to erode over time. It is a fact of political life. Just ask Rudy Giuliani and Hillary Clinton. For that matter, just ask Romney, Huckabee, and Sarah Palin. All three have had big leads nationally over their rivals one time or the other in the past two years. Everyone of them of slipped back to earth.
Which is why I am not assuming Romney wins easily in New Hampshire or Nevada, and why you should do the same with Huckabee in Iowa and South Carolina.
“The only constant in life is change.”
February 5th, 2011 at 12:34 pm
Given that this is another KosKids poll, Romney’s probably up by double digits. And Gingrich will probably either limp into Arizona without momentume, or be gone by the time the state votes—-I predict Mitt will pick up most of his support.
All in all, Mitt should win Arizona by a comfortable margin.
February 5th, 2011 at 12:36 pm
Mark,
Trends are very important.
AZ Favorabilities
Overall:
Mike 62/20
Mitt 62/22
CONSERVATIVES
Mike 71/12
Mitt 64/20
Moderates
Mike 39/40
Mitt 56/27
Hispanic
Mike 71/14
Mitt 46/31
February 5th, 2011 at 12:42 pm
Dave Says:
February 5th, 2011 at 12:34 pm
“Given that this is another KosKids poll, Romney’s probably up by double digits.”
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LOL!
Give up the incessant whining, puh-lease. If Romney were ahead by double digits, you’d be junping up and down and probably hurt yourself, Dave.
February 5th, 2011 at 12:45 pm
marK Says:
February 5th, 2011 at 12:24 pm
“… Which is why I am not assuming Romney wins easily in New Hampshire … ”
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I kinda think he HAS to win NH easily.
February 5th, 2011 at 12:50 pm
Interesting. Polled before the current book tour, while Romney was still laying low, he still beats those with TV shows. Not too shabby. Watch the trends change when he re-emerges.
February 5th, 2011 at 12:54 pm
#7
Must we continue to shoot the messenger when the news isn’t good?
February 5th, 2011 at 12:57 pm
I’m not sure Romney will be able to stage a comeback. I think his numbers a year ago were inflated because all the media talked about him as if he was certain to be the Republican nominee, so people kind of assumed there were no other choices.
February 5th, 2011 at 12:59 pm
After Huck gets back from Israel, he’s going on a hardback policy book tour starting in March.
So I look for his numbers to improve in key states like Iowa, SC, and Florida. Perhaps most everywhere.
February 5th, 2011 at 1:02 pm
Congrats to Romney and his supporters. Here is my latest summary: FYI: I’ve been using somewhat of a GPA type formula with 4 points for 1st, 3.5 for tie for 1st, 3 for 2nd, 2.5 for tie for 2nd, 2 for 3rd, 1.5 for tie for 3rd, 1 for 4th, I haven’t been giving any points for anything lower than 4th. If I’ve made any mistakes, please let me know.
Huckabee has won: (90/29=3.1)
1st place in 13 states plus tied for 1st in one (IL, AK, KY, VA, MO, IA, PA, FL, TX, NC, WV, NE, GA, tied in NJ)
2nd place in 8 states (CT, MT, OH, WI, NH, MI, SC, AZ)
3rd place in 3 states plus tied in one (ME, WA, MN tied in CA)
4th place in 3 states (CO, NV, MA)
Romney has won: (66.5/29=2.3)
1st place in 7 states plus tied for 1st in one (CA, CO, CT, MA, NV, NH, MI tied in NJ)
2nd place in 4 states plus tied for 2nd in one (ME, WA, FL, IA tied in AK)
3rd place in 2 states (SC, GA)
4th place in 12 states plus tied for 4th in one (IL, KY, VA, MT, MO, MN, OH, WI, PA, NC, WV, NE, tied in TX)
Palin has won: (71/29=2.5)
1st place in 5 states (ME, WA, MT, OH, WI)
2nd place in 10 states plus tied for 2nd in one (CA, KY, MO, MA, MN, NV, PA, WV, NE, TX, tied in CO,)
3rd place in 6 states plus tied for 3rd in 1 (IL, VA, IA, NH, MI, NC, tied in AZ)
4th place in 5 states (CT, AK, FL, NJ, SC)
Gingrich has won: (53/29=1.8)
1st place in 0 states
2nd place in 4 states and tied for 2nd in two (IL, VA, NC, GA, tied for 2nd in CO, AK,)
3rd place in 14 states plus tied for 3rd in two (CT, KY, MT, MO, MA, OH, WI, FL, NV, PA, TX, NJ, WV, NE, tied for 3rd in CA, AZ)
4th place in 5 states (ME, WA, MI, FL, NH)
5th place in 1 state (MN)
February 5th, 2011 at 1:14 pm
John,
I’ll have to point out, once again, that in the last 7 national GOP Presidential Polls, conducted by 7 different polling firms, Mitt won 5 of them. In one of the others, the ABC/Washington Post Poll, he was only down by 2 points. Only in the PPP Poll was he down by a significant margin (10 points), and no sane Huckabee supporter would take comfort from that.
The point is that Romney is generally considered to be the most likely nominee, even by people who hate him. He doesn’t have to make a comeback.
BTW, If he ever drops down to #2, THEN he will have to make a comeback.
February 5th, 2011 at 1:16 pm
Granny T,
I like that! Huck with a solid B grade point average.
February 5th, 2011 at 1:22 pm
Real Clear Politics does a pretty good job of averaging the national GOP race. Romney currently has a 0.1 point advatage over Huckabee.
I’m sorry that I don’t know how to make this show up right, but you can click on the link to see it correctly.
Poll Date Romney Huckabee Palin Gingrich Christie Pawlenty Daniels Spread
RCP Average 10/27 – 1/18 18.9 18.8 16.4 11.4 8.7 4.3 2.6 Romney +0.1
February 5th, 2011 at 1:23 pm
Why is Huck more solid overall in the conservative Red States while Mitt is in the most liberal Blues?
Two very easy explanations:
Huck is the more conservative one.
Huck is from the conservative Red States, Mitt is from the liberal Blues.
February 5th, 2011 at 1:28 pm
National polling where Real Clear Politics gives Romney a whopping 0.3% average early lead over Huck mean very little compared to the numbers from the key early states especially IA, NH, SC, and I wanna say Florida.
February 5th, 2011 at 1:31 pm
20. Correction.
Granny T is right, it’s now closed from 0.3% to 0.1% I see.
Romney supporters made have to stop blowing up celebration balloons now.
February 5th, 2011 at 1:35 pm
Dave Says:
February 5th, 2011 at 1:14 pm
“The point is that Romney is generally considered to be the most likely nominee, even by people who hate him.”
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I’m wouldn’t be too sure ’bout that. Seems I used to hear that talk a lot in Iowa.
February 5th, 2011 at 1:52 pm
Congrats to Romney and his
supporters.Not bad,good
position to be in.
February 5th, 2011 at 1:58 pm
Among Hispanics
Mike 71/14
Mitt 46/31
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Not only as Governor did Huckabee receive 45% of the Black vote, but he may be on to something good here as well.
February 5th, 2011 at 1:59 pm
“Given that this is another KosKids poll, Romney’s probably up by double digits.”
BINGO!!! They would love to have the cop killer’s buddy be our candidate!
February 5th, 2011 at 2:05 pm
(AZ Horse Race) %
Romney 23
Huckabee 19
Gingrich 15
Palin 15
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AND congrats to Sarah, the pretty Filly ..for a solid tied for third place “show” photo finish.
February 5th, 2011 at 2:06 pm
More Bull manure! Mitt has been beating Huckabee against Obama in the toss up states. That’s what will matter in the long run.
February 5th, 2011 at 2:09 pm
John G? Mitt make a comeback?? Haha! Are you trying to be funny, or do you honestly believe Huckabee is the frontrunner? If so, you’re almost as bad as the Palinistas!!
February 5th, 2011 at 2:10 pm
I think Romney should be up by triple digits.
How could anyone not vote for the architect of RomneyCare’s massive government mandates, subsidies, and exchanges?
They’re sooooooo popular among Republicans and especially among conservatives who tend to vote as a larger percentage in the primaries.
February 5th, 2011 at 2:11 pm
So according to the Tin Foil Hat crowd, Mitt is really up 102.
February 5th, 2011 at 2:14 pm
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February 5th, 2011 at 2:14 pm
Yep, Matt.
Romney has clearly run away with the frontrunner trophy.
Except he’s running the wrong way.
February 5th, 2011 at 2:17 pm
At this point, we have three or four “front-runners”, not one. They are all doing great to be where they are.
February 5th, 2011 at 2:43 pm
Those putting their money where their mouth is see it quite differently. Intrade.com
Romney: 24
Palin: 11
Huckabee: 8.4
Gingrich: 4.7
And Mark, as you indicated as a possibility, the states chosen since the first of the year are heavily biased as not being good for Mitt.
February 5th, 2011 at 2:58 pm
I can’t believe this. Even when PPP shows Romney leading, they’re supposedly conspiring against him.
February 5th, 2011 at 3:43 pm
IG–Intrade also has who will win overall:
Obama: 61
Romney: 14
Thune: 8
Daniels: 6
Pawlenty: 5
Huckabee: 5
Palin: 4.5
Biden: 2
Clinton: 1.9
So…if we rely too much on intrade, especially now, then why bother? Just hand it over to Obama. But, of course, we’re betting, er, hoping, um, expecting things to change over the next year plus. The question is who and in what direction.
February 5th, 2011 at 3:43 pm
http://www.palintv.com/2011/02/05/governor-palins-speech-at-the-reagan-100-freedom-dinner/
Can Someone post Palin’s awesome speech from last night? It was by far her best.
February 5th, 2011 at 4:18 pm
35
Matt Y.
I’ve been amazed by that, too.
February 5th, 2011 at 4:36 pm
hamaca, I didn’t say anything about relying on anything. I’m pointing out that those who bet their money see it quite differently than those who are on here just attempting to influence other people. They also see it quite differently than the general population, because the general population do not have their heads into it yet.
February 5th, 2011 at 4:40 pm
IG–are you suggesting that there are people on here who are attempting to spin things?
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