Rasmussen’s latest 2012 survey shows that supporters of Sarah Palin appear to be far more ready to go third-party than the supporters of other “top tier” candidates should their candidate fail to win the Republican nomination:
Suppose your favorite candidate fails to win the nomination, how likely are you to vote for a third party candidate?
- Sarah Palin supporters 46%
- Mike Huckabee supporters 35%
- Mitt Romney supporters 31%
National survey of 1,000 likely GOP primary voters was conducted January 18, 2011. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points.
Inside the numbers:
In early November when Rasmussen Reports first asked the question, those who said they were at least somewhat likely to vote for a third-party candidate if their choice wasn’t nominated ranged from 24% of Huckabee supporters to 31% of those who favored Palin.
President Obama won’t be a big beneficiary if a GOP Primary voter’s favorite candidate isn’t nominated. Only nine percent (9%) say they are at least somewhat likely to vote for the Democratic incumbent in that case, with six percent (6%) who say it’s Very Likely. Ninety percent (90%) see a vote for Obama as unlikely, with a whopping 79% who say it’s Not At All Likely.
Forty percent (40%) of likely Republican Primary voters describe themselves as a member of the Tea Party. But Tea Party Republicans are only slightly more inclined to vote for a third-party candidate if their favorite doesn’t win the nomination.
-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal.
January 31st, 2011 at 10:58 am
No chance. Palin, for all her faults, is still a team player. She’ll endorse and campaign for the nominee and her supporters will follow her every word.
January 31st, 2011 at 11:00 am
Agreed. There is zero chance Palin goes third party. Would her supporters find a third-party candidate to vote for if she doesn’t win though? That is what this poll appears to be asking.
January 31st, 2011 at 11:06 am
my only concern with palin is after the convention when it’s time to debate RNC candidate vs Obama ( or Hillary if she challenges the dnc convention)!
January 31st, 2011 at 11:06 am
Agreed. That said – it’s just weird that voters would go 3rd Party if their candidate does not win the nomination.
That said – I saw it in MD. A number of Murphy supporters in the Gubernatorial primary went Constitution post-primary. This despite the fact that Murphy was a team player and endorsed / campaigned for Ehrlich.
January 31st, 2011 at 11:16 am
“Agreed. That said – it’s just weird that voters would go 3rd Party if their candidate does not win the nomination.”
I’m not so sure it is. In a race entirely centered on the issues, it would be – the distinguishable differences between any of the Republican top-tier in this cycle are so limited (confined primarily to healthcare, and even there they all support the repeal of ObamaCare, and what opposition there is to Romney’s program in MASS hasn’t ocme with many real alternative proposals)
But in a race so heavily focused on character and personality….it makes perfect sense that people are so drawn to a single candidate as to oppose voting for any other, even from their own party.
January 31st, 2011 at 11:16 am
I doubt that all but the most rabid Palinista would ditch the GOP. Remember those infamous P.U.M.A’s from 2008 who were supposed to be itching to take out the man who beat Hillary in the primaries? They almost all eventually supported Obama. Same thing will happen with the GOP; there’ll be some hard feelings after the primaries, but the Party will unite around the idea of unseating Obama.
January 31st, 2011 at 11:38 am
These numbers are disgusting, for all of the mentioned candidates and their supporters. That being said, this is way overblown. Only a small percentage of people will actually go third party when actually voting. Talk is cheap.
January 31st, 2011 at 11:38 am
Jonathan: Right — there’s always a lot more talk about going third-party than ever happens.
One of two things would have to happen to cause significant numbers to go third-party: Either a big name would have to lead it (e.g., Palin, Ron Paul) or the Republican nominee would have to be someone utterly unacceptable to a significant portion of the party. I don’t see any of the plausible nominees as being that offensive.
January 31st, 2011 at 11:47 am
#8 – What you said exactly.
#5 – I suppose my wording was poor. I’ve done it before when I’ve seen a completely atrocious candidate for office (voted 3rd party) ex. Jeanine Pirro in 2006 for NY AG. That said, I’ve never done so merely because my candidate of choice failed to garner the nomination. As you said, it’s character / personality based. If a candidate who is truly unacceptable to a huge chunk of the party gets the nomination – then I see this happening. That said – name one of the potential nominees who, if nominated, would truly be unacceptable to a huge chunk of the party…
January 31st, 2011 at 12:00 pm
Hi All
Wonderful. 1912 all over again. Bull Moose = Grizzly Gal and in to the WH walks Woodrow Wilson / Barack Obama. Oh Happy Day. Remember the Progressive Party of 1912 ? remember how well they ran in 1916.
What naive folks we have. We never seem to learn
CraigS
January 31st, 2011 at 12:16 pm
Anyone who goes third party on our side is handing four more years to Obama.
Dumb move.
January 31st, 2011 at 12:36 pm
“Anyone who goes third party on our side is handing four more years to Obama.” Than give us an acceptable candidate. Problem solved.
January 31st, 2011 at 12:51 pm
Most of you guys still don’t get it!
Sarah Palin is stand alone,the ONLY
Reaganesque conservative,PERIOD.
I know all of you hate to hear this,but
it won’t change anything.
She CAN NOT be compared to anybody.
What about the rest of the gray,bland,
GOP establishment hacks and flacks not
a dime of deference between them?
It’s easy for their supporters to jump
from one candidate to another all day
long.
If Sarah Palin is not the nominee,that’s
it,end of the line for her supporters.
Who is out there to replace the relentless
fearless warrior Sarahcuda?
Who?!
January 31st, 2011 at 12:58 pm
Tex,
“She CAN NOT be compared to anybody.”
Then why do you keep calling her “Reaganesque”?
January 31st, 2011 at 1:02 pm
If Sarah Palin runs and GOP
establishment gang up on her
to stop her from the nomination,
GOP is doooooomed.
It won’t be 46%,it will be 100%.
January 31st, 2011 at 1:03 pm
Oh, I thought the question was worded weird. I got the impression it meant if sarah palin DOES’NT run, how likely are you to back a third party challenger (not sarah palin).
January 31st, 2011 at 1:04 pm
Well, Sarah Palin apparently already has Jimmy McMillan’s endorsement. And when you’ve got Jimmy McMillan’s endorsement, you’ve got..uhh….something. The real question, however, is: Does Sarah Palin agree that the rent is, in fact, too damn high? http://tinyurl.com/46dgnku
January 31st, 2011 at 1:09 pm
Matt,
I and many others call her Reganesque
because she is Ronald Reagan in
political philosophy,the backbone etc.
It’s obvious what I meant,she can not
be compared to anybody else,but Reagan.
January 31st, 2011 at 1:10 pm
when does obama focus on our GOP field Do you all think he will watch all the exploratory announcements ect or when does he start to focus when he has to Fly to a 2012 debate city? i hope he does not control our primaries ect
January 31st, 2011 at 1:50 pm
Let me guess where will palin announce for 2012 in alaska or FNC those are basically here only 2 announcement places really when you think about it ?
January 31st, 2011 at 2:12 pm
Tex,
Sarah Palin is stand alone,the ONLY Reaganesque conservative,PERIOD.
I want proof asap. Please show me some videos or quotes of Reagan being as polarizing and hateful of fellow Americans as Palin. From what I remember; Reagan was able to woo the people with it being the establishment Republicans that were more against him. Sarah has more support from Rush and Rush type “establishment talking heads” than anyone else. Palin turns off the average American. Her favorables/unfavorables among anyone other than Republicans is awful. I have a very favorable opinion of her but would not vote for her in a primary election – because I know that those that hate her would work their tales off to keep her from getting elected in the general.
January 31st, 2011 at 2:18 pm
TEX… Palin Reganesque (sic)?
Reagan didn’t whine about the media, he matched wits and communicated.
Reagan didn’t quit — eight years as Governor of the fourth largest economy in the world.
Literally shoot him down (with bullets, not just words) and he still didn’t quit.
Reagan had decades of public plodding, seasoning, and wisdom before entering the White House.
Reagan’s conservative ideology was forged through an understanding of the times in which he lived.
Reagan’s ideas were brought up from a deep well of subtle intellect. We have a semblance of missile defense today, because Reagan (as Governor of California) has a vision to use technology to defend the land that he loved.
Now… Palin is an intellectual lightweight.
If she had wisdom and ability, she would have led Alaska into a new era. But, she couldn’t even finish one term or even poll well in her own state… now she wants to lead the whole country?!?
I don’t have anything else to say about her because there is nothing else to say… she just doesn’t run that deep.
January 31st, 2011 at 2:24 pm
The way I have heard it stated, which I like, is to say that Governor Palin is the “new Eve” to Reagan’s “new Adam.” They are both generational archetypes of conservative leadership, power and philosophy.
January 31st, 2011 at 2:33 pm
“Please show me some videos or quotes of Reagan being as polarizing and hateful of fellow Americans as Palin.” Huh, you have jumped the Dinosaurs, Granny T. First, Mr. Reagan was somewhat polarizing, if you remember and second, Mrs. Palin is not the hateful one.
January 31st, 2011 at 2:47 pm
Granny T,
With all due respect, you lose all credibility when you accuse Palin of being “hateful.” A comment like that reaks of the desparation that seems to be rampant in the Huckabee camp, as the evidence continues to pile up that he’s not running.
January 31st, 2011 at 2:51 pm
Another log on the fire…
Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee locked up that position in 2008, when he exceeded expectations and earned respect by finishing third in the nation’s first GOP primary. But there has been no word from him so far this cycle.
In fact, Huckabee’s former state chairman, Cliff Hurst, told Roll Call that he had recently committed to Pawlenty, who has traveled to New Hampshire six times since last winter, including a two-day tour last week.
Hurst, the chairman of the Manchester Republican Committee, described Huckabee as a “close friend,” but he said that wasn’t enough.
His close friend and 2008 NH state chairman, now supporting Pawlenty.
http://www.rollcall.com/news/-202953-1.html?zkMobileView=true
January 31st, 2011 at 2:55 pm
are all the 2012 candidates waiting for palin to make a decision first is that basically what we are waiting for now for palin to make her decision ??
January 31st, 2011 at 2:56 pm
Comparing candidates to Reagan is surely the tiredest cliche in Republican politics.
It demonstrates that those using it are out of meaningful arguments on behalf of their candidate.
January 31st, 2011 at 3:12 pm
Huck lost a supporter in NH? Wow, there goes his chances to win there. I guess he’ll have to settle for a top three or four in that northeast state.
And I agree with Bob in #28. I’ll even go one step further: Palin is no Reagan, as Churchill already clearly laid out in #22.
Not even close.
January 31st, 2011 at 3:20 pm
No, she is no Reagan and Mr. Huckabee is even less Reaganesque.
January 31st, 2011 at 3:36 pm
New ppppolls tweets:
Full South Carolina Republican poll out tomorrow
2 minutes ago via web
Biggest surprise on our South Carolina GOP poll has to be Romney running ahead of Palin.
2 minutes ago via web
January 31st, 2011 at 3:42 pm
is palin the reason why everyone else is in a holding pattern on making there intentions known?
January 31st, 2011 at 4:11 pm
This is for you Granny T:
Journeyman -C4P Jan.29,2011
- Chicago Sun Times
A dinner party for Palin bashers
by Andy Rooney
Sarah Palin bashers or also known as PDS sufferers know no middle ground. They don’t give an inch. Anything wrong with the world is Palin’s fault. Anything good that happens with her is luck.
“What an idiot!” is their idea of how to start a conversation about politics.
They don’t have a conciliatory bone in their bodies. They feed the birds all winter, cry during sad movies and hold the door open for elderly people, but they wouldn’t give Palin the time of day if they owned the Rolex watch company.
One recent Saturday night I was at a dinner party with nine other people, including the anonymous aforementioned, who didn’t make the bed until half an hour before we went out.
At dinner, the knockers brought the conversation around the Palins money.
“They say that they are making millions of dollars but no one knows what they are doing with it” one guest said.
“Ha!” said the anti-Palin person in the green dress. “I bet I know where it went. Have you seen all the new clothes the Palins been wearing?”
“Yep” said hater on her right. “They’re probably also setting aside a little nestegg for that baby she’s always dragging around.”
“It’s a good thing we’ve got a Constitution,” someone piped up, “or this girl would declare herself queen”
These people took more pleasure out of hating this woman that Saturday night than from their dinner. They often put forth their most creative work devising ways to dislike her.
“I think she’s out of her mind,” one of them said. “I really do.”
“That’s what I want to be when I quit my daytime job,” my former boss said, “president.”
“Her idea of serious reading is the pictures found in an edition of Guns Magazine” my constant companion complained.
“Yeah. Caribou Barbie also likes to count the pieces in her two-piece bathing suits. That’s as high as she can go.”
Every once in a while I made an attempt to come in with something laudatory.
“You have to admit,” I said, trying to stem the flow of criticism, “that she’s right on target about the economy being so bad”
“Bush did that,” someone said. “Palin is benefitting from it only because the things that Bush did wrong, its not Obama’s fault that the economy is faultering.
January 31st, 2011 at 4:15 pm
Journeymen – C4P
January 29, 2011 at 8:03 PM
The above article was from Feb 22, 1987 —– it was about President Reagan, It’s title: A dinner party for Reagan bashers
I just changed the name of Palin from Reagan and changed certain modern criticism of Palin instead of Reagans! Fascinating is it not? Some things stay the same.
=============================
Ronald Reagan was hated,mocked,
dismissed,attacked,called names
and feared like Sarah Palin is
today.
January 31st, 2011 at 4:15 pm
Andy Rooney’s a funny guy. What is he, 92-93 years old?
January 31st, 2011 at 4:20 pm
32.greg Says:
January 31st, 2011 at 3:42 pm
“is palin the reason why everyone else is in a holding pattern on making there intentions known?”
===
They’re all waiting on three: Palin, Michelle Bachmann, and Mitch Daniels.
January 31st, 2011 at 4:21 pm
I’m not surprised that Palin numbers are this high for third party. I’m very surprised that Romney numbers are this high though, causing me to not believe the results of the poll.
January 31st, 2011 at 4:26 pm
you really think michelle bachmann is jumping in ? can palin even make the others wait till early summer personally i think palin is the one that obama could wipe the election map on election night even before CA polls close
January 31st, 2011 at 4:41 pm
Biggest surprise on our South Carolina GOP poll has to be Romney running ahead of Palin.
2 minutes ago via web
B-b-but PPP conspires against Romney! /sarc
January 31st, 2011 at 5:05 pm
Illinois,
“I’m very surprised that Romney numbers are this high though, causing me to not believe the results of the poll.”
I wrote something almost identical to that earlier, but it got eaten. No way 31% of Rombots walk. The number of hardcore cultists in his camp isn’t nearly that large. I think it’s a worthless poll question that doesn’t bear out in the real world.
I think the real numbers would look more like this:
Palin 10%
Huck 5% (depending on nominee)
Romney 2%
January 31st, 2011 at 5:08 pm
PPP Tweets:
Add Nebraska to the list of ‘Sarah Palin swing states.’ She leads Obama by just 1 point there: 11 minutes ago via web
Rest of Republican field would cruise in Nebraska- Newt leads Obama by 8, Mitt by 12, Huck by 13:
10 minutes ago via web
Net favorabilities of Republicans in Nebraska: Huck +11, Mitt +3, Palin -8, Newt -9:
8 minutes ago via web
http://tinyurl.com/4h87d2l
January 31st, 2011 at 5:20 pm
Matt
I think the real numbers would look more like this:
Palin 10%
Huck 5% (depending on nominee)
Romney 2%
=======================================================
How did you come up with these numbers?
Because you like them?
January 31st, 2011 at 5:38 pm
Churchill Says:
January 31st, 2011 at 2:18 pm
TEX… Palin Reganesque (sic)?
=========================================
You are repeating Libs and some
(not all)RINOS talking points,
but that’s fine as long as you’re
not one of them.
And you are not?Right?
January 31st, 2011 at 5:55 pm
Churchill
“Now… Palin is an intellectual lightweight.”
==================================================
Who is your candidate?
He or she must be intellectual
heavyweight,maybe a genius?
Who is it?
Let’s have fun talking about that
superior brain!
I’m sure I will be impressed.
January 31st, 2011 at 10:59 pm
I just don’t see 1/3 of Republican voters ditching the party to help usher in Obama. 12% would, certainly. but 30%???