Public Policy Polling Texas 2012 Republican Primary Poll
- Mike Huckabee 25% (20%) {19%} [22%] (29%)
- Sarah Palin 21% (22%) {19%} [17%] (23%)
- Newt Gingrich 17% (15%) {23%} [25%]
- Mitt Romney 10% (15%) {17%} [18%] (32%)
- Ron Paul 9% {8%} [8%]
- Tim Pawlenty 5% (3%)
- Mitch Daniels 3% (2%)
- Someone else/Undecided 8% (20%)
Among Conservatives
- Mike Huckabee 26% (20%) {18%} [23%] (32%)
- Sarah Palin 21% (23%) {21%} [18%] (27%)
- Newt Gingrich 20% (17%) {24%} [28%]
- Ron Paul 9% {7%} [11%]
- Mitt Romney 9% (14%) {18%} [16%] (30%)
- Tim Pawlenty 6% (3%)
- Mitch Daniels 3% (2%)
- Someone else/Undecided 7% (18%)
Among Moderates
- Mike Huckabee 23% (16%) {22%} [17%] (22%)
- Sarah Palin 23% (14%) {10%} [14%] (13%)
- Mitt Romney 13% (23%) {15%} [26%] (40%)
- Newt Gingrich 12% (10%) {17%} [15%]
- Ron Paul 11% {9%} [6%]
- Tim Pawlenty 5% (2%)
- Mitch Daniels 0% (1%)
- Someone else/Undecided 13% (25%)
Among Men
- Mike Huckabee 25% (19%) {18%} [21%] (27%)
- Sarah Palin 25% (20%) {16%} [18%] (26%)
- Newt Gingrich 14% (22%) {29%} [27%]
- Mitt Romney 11% (15%) {18%} [17%] (33%)
- Ron Paul 8% {8%} [10%]
- Mitch Daniels 6% (2%)
- Tim Pawlenty 5% (4%)
- Someone else/Undecided 5% (12%)
Among Women
- Mike Huckabee 24% (21%) {20%} [22%] (30%)
- Newt Gingrich 21% (7%) {16%} [22%]
- Sarah Palin 17% (23%) {23%} [16%] (21%)
- Ron Paul 10% {7%} [11%]
- Mitt Romney 10% (16%) {16%} [19%] (31%)
- Tim Pawlenty 6% (2%)
- Mitch Daniels 1% (2%)
- Someone else/Undecided 12% (28%)
If the Republican candidates for President next year were Mitch Daniels, Newt Gingrich, Mike Huckabee, Sarah Palin, Ron Paul, Tim Pawlenty, Mitt Romney, and Rick Perry, who would you vote for?
- Mike Huckabee 24% [18%]
- Newt Gingrich 17% [23%]
- Sarah Palin 17% [17%]
- Ron Paul 10% [8%]
- Mitt Romney 10% [14%]
- Rick Perry 9% [8%]
- Tim Pawlenty 4%
- Mitch Daniels 3%
- Someone else/Undecided 5%
Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}
- Mike Huckabee 71% / 15% {+56%}
- Sarah Palin 69% / 24% {+45%}
- Rick Perry 65% / 26% {+39%}
- Newt Gingrich 60% / 22% {+38%}
- Mitt Romney 52% / 27% {+25%}
Among Conservatives
- Mike Huckabee 77% / 9% {+68%}
- Sarah Palin 77% / 15% {+62%}
- Rick Perry 70% / 19% {+51%}
- Newt Gingrich 67% / 16% {+51%}
- Mitt Romney 54% / 25% {+29%}
Among Moderates
- Mike Huckabee 60% / 25% {+35%}
- Mitt Romney 54% / 29% {+25%}
- Rick Perry 52% / 42% {+10%}
- Newt Gingrich 44% / 37% {+7%}
- Sarah Palin 45% / 51% {-6%}
Among Men
- Mike Huckabee 71% / 20% {+51%}
- Sarah Palin 71% / 24% {+47%}
- Rick Perry 64% / 29% {+35%}
- Newt Gingrich 62% / 28% {+34%}
- Mitt Romney 52% / 35% {+17%}
Among Women
- Mike Huckabee 70% / 10% {+60%}
- Sarah Palin 67% / 25% {+42%}
- Rick Perry 65% / 23% {+42%}
- Newt Gingrich 59% / 17% {+42%}
- Mitt Romney 51% / 21% {+30%}
Survey of 400 usual Texas Republican primary voters was conducted January 14-16, 2011. The margin of error is +/- 4.9 percentage points. Political ideology: 75% {75%} [77%] (73%) Conservative; 21% {23%} [22%] (25%) Moderate; 4% {3%} [2%] (2%) Liberal. Results from the poll conducted October 26-28, 2010 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted September 2-6, 2010 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted June 19-20, 2010 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted February 19-21, 2010 are in parentheses.
-Data compilation and analysis courtesy of The Argo Journal
January 19th, 2011 at 12:34 pm
Wake me up when we get a nonKosKids poll.
January 19th, 2011 at 12:36 pm
Looking good for Huckabee
January 19th, 2011 at 12:38 pm
Go Huckabee!!! And even sweeeeeeter if Perry jumps in…
As Rick Perry contemplates a Presidential bid there’s one place he can’t expect a whole lot of support from: Texas. He polls at only 9% in a hypothetical Republican primary, putting him in sixth place. Mike Huckabee leads the way with 24%, followed by Newt Gingrich and Sarah Palin at 17%, and Mitt Romney and Ron Paul at 10%. Perry bests only Tim Pawlenty at 4% and Mitch Daniels at 3%.
Huckabee has by far the best favorability of the Republicans at a +56 spread (71/15), followed by Palin at +45 (69/24), Gingrich at +38 (60/22), and Romney at just +25 (52/27).
Those numbers for Romney are pretty ominous- they’re an indication that he could really have some trouble connecting with voters in states that have heavily conservative Republican primary electorates, which frankly at this point is most of them.
Winning across the board in the south would be a very big step toward a potential Huckabee nomination so these numbers bode well for him on that front.
http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/
January 19th, 2011 at 12:46 pm
Who says Mitt is the “clear frontrunner”?
Max, are you there?
January 19th, 2011 at 12:47 pm
Dave,
You love the PPP polls and lend them much credence when they show Mitt doing 1 point better than Huck against Obama.
January 19th, 2011 at 12:48 pm
Among Conservatives (Hey, it’s Texas!!!)
•Mike Huckabee 26% (20%) ..Solid, baby!
!
•Sarah Palin 21% (23%)
•Newt Gingrich 20% (17%)
•Ron Paul 9% {7%}
•Mitt Romney 9% (14%)
•Tim Pawlenty 6% (3%) ..biggest move of all! Here comes T-Paw!
•Mitch Daniels 3% (2%)
•Someone else/Undecided 7% (18%) ..Huck pulling from this category
January 19th, 2011 at 12:52 pm
Among Conservatives:
•Mitt Romney 9%
•Tim Pawlenty 6%
Considering Mitt probably has twice the name ID, that ain’t good. And this isn’t just the South. Those numbers are very close to what PA showed recently.
I think the reality of RomneyCare has sunk in now, and the Rombots should finally stop whistling past the graveyard.
January 19th, 2011 at 12:56 pm
Folks, we have ourselves a race. For second!!! (No, I don’t think Newt, Paul, or Sarah will be in it to win it when Texas rolls around but I could be wrong.)
Among Men
•Mike Huckabee 25%
•Mitt Romney 11%
•Tim Plenty 5%
Among Women
•Mike Huckabee 24%
•Mitt Romney 10%
•Tim Plenty 6%
January 19th, 2011 at 12:58 pm
Yes, I’ve renamed Pawlenty because he appears to have plenty of what it takes.
January 19th, 2011 at 12:58 pm
Huck isn’t shaking off Palin in the primary numbers. Who do you think the Dems will be voting for to get the GOP nomination. Answer: Palin If 2012 is going to be proportional, then nobody will get the 50%. Expect it to go to convention.
January 19th, 2011 at 12:59 pm
I didn’t know that Texas had so many evangelicals.
January 19th, 2011 at 1:00 pm
Steve,
So you think the Dems want Palin over Huck? Why is that?
January 19th, 2011 at 1:01 pm
Texas has a LOT of BIG cities. I know that.
January 19th, 2011 at 1:04 pm
Texans are smarter than some think.
They want a candidate like Huck that can actually defeat Obama, not lose to him by 10-15 points like Palin.
January 19th, 2011 at 1:08 pm
As Matthew Miller pointed out before, McCain was around +50 favorable among Republicans in late ’06. Huck is routinely around the same figure, and Romney is now tracking at about half that.
It is VERY hard for a well known candidate to drive their favorables UP once the mud slinging of a campaign begins. I don’t think Romney has enough money to take his favorables from +25 to +50.
January 19th, 2011 at 1:08 pm
Facebook fans:
Sarah Palin 2,610,000
Mitt Romney 754,000
Mike Huckabee 522,000
Ron Paul 283,000
Newt Gingrich 100,000
Tim Pawlenty 70,000
Mitch Daniels 39,000
Haley Barbour 16,000
2010 Fundraising
Mitt Romney $8.8m
Sarah Palin $5.4
Tim Pawlenty $3.3
Mike Huckabee $1.8
Newt Gingrich $0.7
January 19th, 2011 at 1:09 pm
Craig,
I think maybe you were right in your advice to Romney last Spring. If he had just come out and apologized for RomneyCare- maybe say it was just a drunken mistake- he may have put it past him by now.
January 19th, 2011 at 1:10 pm
If Huckabee is so popular, why isn’t he somewhere between Palin and Romney’s numbers on Facebook and doing poorly in fundraising. IF he goes up against Obama, he’ll have the media and over a billion dollars running negative ads continuously and calling Huck a far right religious fanatic and racist. You don’t really understand what’s coming.
January 19th, 2011 at 1:12 pm
Steven,
“If Huckabee is so popular, why isn’t he somewhere between Palin and Romney’s numbers on Facebook and doing poorly in fundraising.”
Fundraising is not proportional to popularity. Look at Romney.
Facebook “friends” is hardly a scientific sample of the country at large.
January 19th, 2011 at 1:13 pm
Given Romney’s horrible ROI when it comes to money spent, if Obama raises $1 billion in the General, Romney would need at least $2 billion.
January 19th, 2011 at 1:15 pm
I read the PPP blog about the Texas Senate race poll yesterday. Brief quote from GOP in good shape to hold KBH seat:
Texas is obviously a strongly Republican state- for a Democrat to win would take a strong advantage with independents and the ability to win over a healthy number of GOP voters while losing very few Democrats.
During the 2008 primary season, Huckabee did very well in the “strongly Republican” areas that he campaigned in. McCain and Romney usually did best in the areas of the state that normally went to the Democrat candidate in the general election. Huckabee will have to work on those normally large urban areas to be able to compete in states that are decided by a statewide popular vote.
January 19th, 2011 at 1:16 pm
Palin hasn’t lost her steam with Republicans. She can still get the nomination. Pull 20% of GOP in states and then Dems not having a primary to fight will head over to GOP and vote for her so Republicans get the worse candidate. That’s what I fear.
January 19th, 2011 at 1:18 pm
well well well look who started a PAC website Christiane O’Donnell http://www.christine2010.com/
I hope she isn’t planning to make a 2012 announcement
January 19th, 2011 at 1:18 pm
Iowa polls haven’t changed much. I haven’t seen NH voters change their minds on Romney. Not one debate has occurred yet. Huckabee will get grilled by the others just like Romney did last time and this time again.
January 19th, 2011 at 1:19 pm
When did Huckabee become the 2nd coming of Christ?
January 19th, 2011 at 1:25 pm
I’m looking forward to Huckabee actually getting a chance to answer real questions in a debate. This time he will be one of the top tier candidates that will get a little more time to explain his views and his record. Huckabee is a good debater.
January 19th, 2011 at 1:27 pm
Huckabee got 38% of the Texas vote last time when it was his last stand (or Alamo as Texans prefer) against all-but-guaranteed nominee John McCain. He starts with a strong base in the Lone Star State.
Also, this is bad news for Palin; Texas should be her type of state, the kind of place where she’ll need to do very well to be a viable contender.
Of course, Texas could be the last primary/caucus on the calendar so we don’t know if it’ll be even relevant come primary season.
January 19th, 2011 at 1:30 pm
This might be true since Perry actively raised the negatives of MassCare against Romney.
January 19th, 2011 at 1:38 pm
Romney has lost 2/3 of his support in a year. The base has rejected him. That’s just a fact.
His only path to victory is a bullshit McCain plurality path by winning blue states big. Romney doesn’t even have the appeal that McCain had – and of course McCain had his problems.
A well-known candidate flirting with single digits in Texas is not the front runner.
January 19th, 2011 at 1:40 pm
Huckabee got 38% of the Texas vote last time when it was his last stand (or Alamo as Texans prefer) against all-but-guaranteed nominee John McCain. He starts with a strong base in the Lone Star State.
Yep. And if Texans thought that Huckabee actually had a prayer of beating McCain – that 38 percent could have easily jumped to 50.
January 19th, 2011 at 1:41 pm
This is what I (and Craig and others) have been saying for months. You can’t be hated all through the South and still win the Republican nomination for president.
January 19th, 2011 at 1:42 pm
the character of this site still hasn’t changed, it seems.
But those who downplay Romney would do well to remember that he never competed in Texas, has few ties to the south, and did not get all that much attention post-convention. He certainly has lots of work to do in the south…yet, as in almost all the previous elections, its the early states that really matter.
…and we have yet to see alternative health plans put forward by the other two big names. Unless Huckabee and Palin can offer serious alternatives to Romney’s healthcare history, they will have great difficulty criticizing his program in a real debate.
January 19th, 2011 at 1:47 pm
17.Matt “MWS” Says:
January 19th, 2011 at 1:09 pm
“Craig,
I think maybe you were right in your advice to Romney last Spring. If he had just come out and apologized for RomneyCare- maybe say it was just a drunken mistake- he may have put it past him by now.”
===
Matt,
It’s still not too late for Mitt to repent but’s it’s getting there.
And soon he’ll be singing Dylan’s .. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RZgBhyU4IvQ&ob=av2el
January 19th, 2011 at 2:06 pm
WRONG! WRONG WRONG WRONG WRONG WRONG!!!!!
Republicans do not accept the individual mandate. They don’t care that Democrats or Romney are going to try to get them to come up with some alternative. They’d rather stick with the status quo – however flawed it is.
Democrats made that argument all through 2010. Supposedly the fact that the GOP didn’t have a good alternative to the health care bill was going to sink them. It didn’t.
Romney supporters need to understand that just because Romney wants to engage in dialog over health care legislation does not mean that other GOP contenders are obligated to involve themselves in that debate. The public is on the side of Lets do nothing when the alternative is the individual mandate. Romney and Obama may not like that but facts are facts.
January 19th, 2011 at 2:16 pm
And yet last year he was at 32 in Texas.
Why the precipitous withdrawal?
January 19th, 2011 at 2:17 pm
Texas has a bill introduced to move their primary to the first Tuesday in Februry and violation of the stated GOP election rules for 2012. Some states chose to do the same thing in 2008 and faced delegate sanctions. This will be one to watch as the cards unfold.
http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2010/11/bill-introduced-in-texas-house-to-move.html
For Huckabee’s sake, they have my full support.
Looking at the results you would have to say that Huckabee is the benefactor to Romney’s decline in TX.
January 19th, 2011 at 2:18 pm
Huck prefers market based non mandated solutions to health care like…
Welcome to ARKids First! ARKids First health insurance provides two coverage options for more than 70000 Arkansas children who otherwise might have gone without. …
http://www.arkidsfirst.com/home.htm
January 19th, 2011 at 2:22 pm
..to cover gaps.
January 19th, 2011 at 2:23 pm
FC, Sounds like Texas being Texas!
January 19th, 2011 at 2:31 pm
Adam X:
Yep. And if Texans thought that Huckabee actually had a prayer of beating McCain – that 38 percent could have easily jumped to 50.
While that certainly could have happened, I do wonder what percentage of that vote was pro-Huckabee vs. anti-McCain. After McCain locked up the nomination, a full 20% or so of GOP primary votes still cast their vote for someone else, be it Huckabee or Paul or whoever.
Let’s say, just for the sake of argument, that Huck’s base in Texas is 20%-25%. That’s good in such a large state, but the real question is whether or not he can expand that base. If not, he’ll still remain a factor but very unable to win the nomination.
January 19th, 2011 at 3:06 pm
I believe right now that the nomonation is Husk’s to lose look for a Huckabee/Kacish in 2012 !!! And on the 20th of Jan. 2013 a new President will be swarn in and Real Hope & Change will occur!!!
January 19th, 2011 at 3:14 pm
I thought Romney was running away from his part in the MassCare legislation. Hmmm…
Personally, I don’t think Romney was/is suggesting that mandates should occur at a national level or at a state level if the state chooses another approach.
January 19th, 2011 at 3:19 pm
Craig
Sorry guy, but the Huckster is not going to run. A new show and a $ 3 million mortgage and the liklihood that he would lose is just poor odds for a smart guy
CraigS
January 19th, 2011 at 3:21 pm
“Let’s say, just for the sake of argument, that Huck’s base in Texas is 20%-25%. That’s good in such a large state, but the real question is whether or not he can expand that base. If not, he’ll still remain a factor but very unable to win the nomination.”
===
Well it certainly beats your candidate’s almost single digits by 2 1/2 times. I’ll take my chances with Huck momentum coming out of Iowa and South Carolina and then going full throttle forword. In other words, The Huckaboom!
Mike Huckabee 25% (20%) {19%} [22%] (29%
Mitt Romney 10% (15%) {17%} [18%] (32%)
January 19th, 2011 at 3:23 pm
43. Craigs,
Keep thinkin’ that. I know you don’t want Romney facing Huck again.
Who can blame ya?
January 19th, 2011 at 3:24 pm
Dave in post #1 (and any others that don’t care much for PPP polling)
Exactly which polling firm would you prefer to do the polling?
January 19th, 2011 at 3:30 pm
How come I never get to vote in these polls? Very happy to see Huckabee doing so well in my state of Texas!
As to 2008, the polling data showed that Huckabee did much better on actual voting day than he did in early voting. His numbers were on the upward swing.
But that operation chaos was huge in Texas. I know many people who were Huckabee fans, who crossed over to vote in the Democrat primary, because they assumed McCain had it in the bag.
I agree, that the Democrats are going to be only too happy to return the favor in 2012, and create their own chaos in our primary.
The one thing that will hold them back though, is the senate race to replace KBH. If they have a good crop of Democrat candidates, they will stay in their own primary so that they can vote for their best Democrat Senatorial candidate.
January 19th, 2011 at 3:31 pm
Granny,
Easy question, and one I’ve answered several times before: Rasmussen, Mason-Dixon, or SurveyUSA. Those three are usually pretty dang close to gold standards in the polling world.
These polls put out by Kos mean less than the paper they’re printed on. And I’d say that even if Romney was leading.
January 19th, 2011 at 3:33 pm
42,
He is. But Romney supporters keep insisting that once he talks about it (and he will be forced to) that somehow it is going to help his plight. It won’t.
40,
That’s fair. And I am sure of it WAS a protest against McCain. But anyone who voted Huckabee once, knowing that he is more of a so-con than McCain is going to at least be open to the possibility of voting for him again. Those folks that had problems with McCain and were open to voting for Huck are going to have the same problems with Romney. And Huckabee won’t need 50 to win Texas. 38 would be almost certainly be good enough in a crowded field.
January 19th, 2011 at 3:36 pm
Matt C,
Thanks for answering. But, according to the chart that rated the pollsters – out of your list SurveyUSA was the only one that was more accurate during the 2010 elections. Rasmussen did the worst of all of them evaluated.
http://www.538host.com/pollacc1.png
January 19th, 2011 at 3:37 pm
MattC, you do know that Rasmussen has a history of leaving Huckabee out of the polling.
And not just in his actual polls, he leaves Huckabee out of the entire conversation. Often dismissing him.
An agenda? Mmmm.
January 19th, 2011 at 3:50 pm
Granny T,
We’ve talked about this before: PPP is a Democratic polling firm owned by a partisan hack who releases polls in order to frame a public narrative. This was true in 2010, especially in NC, where they publicly stated they were cheering on Democrats and hoped they would win. Their polling numbers are suspect because they are largely driven by this ideology and this desire to alter perception.
This far out in an election, they can release whatever numbers they want to because no one else is polling right now to hold them accountable. Then, when those pretty little charts start paying attention — right before the election — they bring their numbers in line with everyone else’s in order to get favorable standing. It’s transparent and pathetic, honestly.
Rasmussen is widely held as the gold standard in polling in the 2004, 2006, and 2008 elections. He overestimated GOP support in the 2010 midterms, but given his past track record he is still the overall favorite pollster in the professional political realm. SurveyUSA is up there with them in terms of reliability and integrity.
I have to wonder why GOP voters are paying so much attention to these polls done by partisan Democrats, for partisan Democrats, and reported by partisan Democrats. Once the grown-ups get in the game, I have a feeling we’ll see much different results, and we’ll all question why the Huckabee folks fell in love with the Kos Kids so easily.
January 19th, 2011 at 3:55 pm
…Or say that PPP was correct again.
January 19th, 2011 at 3:56 pm
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_IKhPZc5iEus/SfCoMmJLh7I/AAAAAAAAAEk/Ea5AlJ78Hho/S220/Wall+Street+Chart.jpg
January 19th, 2011 at 3:59 pm
TX Con, interesting claim… I went and searched the list of all public polling for the 2008 primaries, and had a really difficult time finding any polls where Rasmussen did not include Huckabee… so then I thought maybe you meant hypothetical matchups for the 2012 primaries, but I found the same problem — not a single poll without Huck’s name.
Perhaps you could enlighten us as to the evidence behind your charge?
January 19th, 2011 at 4:00 pm
Wednesday, January 19, 2011
“The Republicans’ choice
We’ll release our national poll numbers tomorrow looking at how Barack Obama fares for reelection against Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee, Sarah Palin, Newt Gingrich, and Michele Bachmann who you all voted in as this month’s ‘bonus Republican.’”
http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/
January 19th, 2011 at 4:16 pm
#16 Those Facebook numbers are meaningless. Palin’s fans treat her like a rock star and look forward to the Facebook posts and Tweets that are not even written about her.
January 19th, 2011 at 4:22 pm
“Palin’s fans treat her like a rock star and look forward to the Facebook posts and Tweets that are not even written about her.” And they were written by you?
January 19th, 2011 at 5:32 pm
Here ya go:
1.it’s not one of the big names” — Sarah Palin, Mitt Romney, Tim Pawlenty or Newt Gingrich.
http://www.thenewsstar.com/article/20110116/NEWS01/101160307
2. Hogan Gidley called Rasmussen out on this one: U.S. voters think Hillary Clinton is more qualified to be president than Barack Obama, but most believe that both Democrats are more fit for the White House than three top Republicans interested in the job.( Romney, Gingrich, Palin)
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/general_politics/june_2010/voters_say_hillary_more_qualified_to_be_president_than_obama_romney_gingrich_palin
3. 2012 Match-ups: Obama, Romney Tied at 45%; Obama 48%, Palin 42%
Monday, July 20, 2009
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/2012_match_ups_obama_romney_tied_at_45_obama_48_palin_42
I know there are more, but I don’t have time to look them up.
Rasmussen also did this during the primaries-late to put Huckabee in, and took him out early as well.
January 19th, 2011 at 6:39 pm
Matt C,
“This far out in an election, they can release whatever numbers they want to because no one else is polling right now to hold them accountable.”
So Romney probably isn’t doing as well against Obama as PPP is suggesting…….
January 19th, 2011 at 6:53 pm
59
MWS,
You haven’t lost your touch my man!
January 19th, 2011 at 7:06 pm
opps, make that 60 for MWS
January 19th, 2011 at 11:55 pm
The chest thumping is great entertainment. Little evidence thus far that Huck will run. Lots of evidence Palin shouldn’t. Hard to think Paul will at his age. Gingrich looks like he’s going on 80. Pawlenty’s starting to vigorously court Santorum voters, leaving the other 98% of Republicans scratching our heads. What a ride this will be!
January 20th, 2011 at 12:44 am
“Huck a far right religious fanatic and racist.”
Of course, you are not calling him that, you’re just saying…
“I refuse to call my opponent, Mr. X a conniving thieving, clutching old sinner. I am above that”