Jeb Bush gives Republicans some friendly advice when it comes to reaching out to Hispanics. His advice will probably go unheeded during the next election cycle or so, but the numbers suggest that Jeb is correct that the GOP’s long-term prospects look much sunnier if the conservative base doesn’t recoil every time it is told that it must make a serious play for “the Hispanic vote.”
The conventional wisdom this year seems to be that GOP successes will come about as long as Republicans appeal to what essentially amounts to Midwestern middle-aged voters and seniors. It’s the Early Bird Special election, we’re told, and Republicans will be able to win states like Iowa and Pennsylvania far more easily than states like Nevada and Colorado. But will they? All of those blue collar “Hillary-crats” were supposed to put these states in play in 2008 as well, yet Obama won Iowa and Wisconsin by larger margins than Colorado. Pat Toomey’s supposedly easy win last year turned into a nailbiter, as did John Kasich’s, and Illinois elected another Democratic governor after flirting with the Republicans all last year.
But why are these states even important? Well, if you adjust the Electoral College numbers to their post-census, 2012 status, and if you give back to the GOP all of the states that it lost by 6 points or less in 2008 (Indiana, North Carolina, Florida, Ohio, and Virginia), Obama still holds onto 272 electoral votes. That means the GOP must pick up either an Iowa, a Wisconsin, or a Pennsylvania, OR must win back a Colorado, a Nevada, or a New Mexico. And of all of these states, Colorado was the closest in 2008.
It’s certainly possible that Republicans could eke out a win in 2012 by adding Iowa to their coalition and creating a new South-Midwest bare majority, but it’s also possible that the Rust Belt will go back to its status as the nation’s Republican tease region, and will come home to the Democrats after months of polls showing the GOP candidate leading Obama in those states. Of course, it would help if the GOP could actually produce candidates who led Obama in states like Iowa and Pennsylvania, states that seem to show Obama ahead in every poll. Perhaps instead it is time for Republicans to make peace with the Rockies.
The reasons for the base’s skepticism about GOP Western fortunes are legion. Bush won Colorado, Nevada, and New Mexico in 2004, but the GOP has fared poorly in the region ever since. And the factor that no one in the GOP wants to talk about — the Hispanic vote — is looming over the region in a way that turns off the base. That’s because most Republicans think that “the Hispanic vote” is loyal to the party of big government. I submit to you that this is not necessarily so. Small government advocate, and constitutional originalist, Gary Johnson was twice elected governor of New Mexico, probably the bluest of the Colorado/Nevada/New Mexico trio. Conservative Bill Owens used to govern Colorado. And far-right Ken Buck barely lost his senatorial race in Colorado in 2010. The West isn’t necessarily a goner for Republicans. It would help though if Republicans stepped away from the Tancredo juice, especially in those pivotal Western states.
There is a certain element of the GOP base that views any attempt to appeal to Hispanics, though, as a slippery slope to becoming, as many bloggers would put it, “McCain-Grahamnesty RINOS!” I don’t think it has to be this way. First, Hispanic-Americans who came to our nation legally, or who grew up here as natural born citizens, aren’t necessarily going to be kneejerk advocates of endless immigration and amnesty for illegal immigrants simply because of their ethnicity. That in itself is a stereotype that the GOP needs to get past, including those GOP politicians who think that being pro-amnesty will lead to a greater portion of the Hispanic vote. Secondly, there is no reason that putting into place rational immigration policies that identify who is actually present in the country at any given time, that police the borders sufficiently, and that limit immigration in a way that prevents state coffers from being sucked dry is somehow hostile to Hispanics, especially since these policies would apply to non-Americans across the board. Finally, the Tancredo Right is going to have to admit that pretty much no one is willing to round up illegal immigrants and ship them out of the country, so it’s probably best to identify who’s in the country and secure the border even if it means grandfathering in longtime illegal immigrants and instituting a guest worker program for certain seasonal types of employment.
But ultimately, immigration is just one issue of many. And there’s no reason that the classical Republican message can’t appeal to Hispanics, just as it used to appeal to Asian-Americans back in the 1980s. But the reason that Asians and Hispanics both vote heavily Democrat in the modern era is that the MSM has created a narrative, that narrative being that non-Caucasians aren’t welcome in the GOP, and that’s something that Republicans on the ground should be fighting with just as much vigor as they use to defend Sarah Palin on any given day. Something tells me that in the coming election though, given a choice between the hard work of reaching out to Hispanics, and falling back on greying Caucasian voters in the Rust Belt, Republicans will view the latter as the low hanging fruit. I just hope that, in falling back on these voters, the GOP isn’t actually falling back on a sword.
January 13th, 2011 at 6:07 pm
The economy is making this issue more complicated. Any state that has a sanctuary city is in danger of bankruptcy. Schools have to be built and hospital ERs in these cities are bursting at the seams. Meanwhile, the minority of adults who are taxpayers are being expected to pay for the hoards of illegals on top of all the union benefits. This is what is stoking all the anger right now.
No group should be excluded from the Republican base but if the Hispanics insist on amnesty, it will cause problems. To be fair, I’m not sure the percentage of Hispanics who are American citizens and want amnesty.
January 13th, 2011 at 6:07 pm
Well put. The demographics are ugly and getting worse for us and nobody seems to mind setting the party back a generation just to eek out one last Karl Rove 50% + 1 wedge election.
January 13th, 2011 at 6:36 pm
Dave,
It is a waste of time to FURTHER reach out to Hispanics except the Cubans in Florida (which are with the GOP for historical/Castro reasons).
The demographics just make some states like California and New Mexico out of reach to the GOP Presidential contests for some time – just like Massachusetts and Maryland.
Colorado is leaning more right due to the immigration of white older voters from California.
Nevada is firmly in control of the gaming unions and the Hispanics are firmly in the Dem camp.
The best for America is to secure the borders and pass E-Verify to help/persuade employers not hire illegal aliens. America cannot afford millions of illegal immigrants impacting their jobs and social infrastructure, including the public schools.
Hispanics like Asians, Jews and African Americans vote their race and except for a few (20-30%) are lost to any outreach.
Those are just the realities.
Jeb Bush is wrong.
January 13th, 2011 at 6:39 pm
Also, Kavon,
Have you ever considered DISQUS or Intense Debate for Commenting?
Check them out I am using both on my different blogs and I like them because of the social media connections.
January 13th, 2011 at 6:44 pm
Perhaps Huck (who received 45% of the black vote as Governor) would put Jeb on the bottom of his ticket to shore up the Latino vote.
January 13th, 2011 at 6:48 pm
Unfortunately, appealing to Hispanics won’t necessarily get you their vote. McCain was a huge backer of amnesty, and yet most Hispanics voted for Obama, who got over a third of the Hispanic vote.
http://pewresearch.org/pubs/1024/exit-poll-analysis-hispanics
I think that Republicans will need to not only openly court Hispanics, but will need to put up a rockstar Hispanic candidate to get their vote. Perhaps Rubio as VP could help with that, but being a Puerto Rican may not endear him to the largely Mexican population.
January 13th, 2011 at 6:52 pm
Just looked it up to double check: *Huckabee earned 48 percent of the African-American vote*
January 13th, 2011 at 6:54 pm
As some may know, I’m a big fan of reaching out to Hispanics, and some kind of earned citizenship for illegals already here. I think it is a HUGE mistake to write off the Hispanic vote, and simply rely on getting 70% of the white vote, which would have to become 80% in the coming decades if we are to be competitive. If that were to come about, America would be politically Balkanized, and produce a ton of other problems.
I think Asian Americans largely left the GOP in the last 20 years for the same reason we might be able to attract Hispanics- the Culture War. Hispanics on the whole are socially conservative (other than on immigration issues).
January 13th, 2011 at 6:57 pm
Tejana Susana Martinez!
!
January 13th, 2011 at 7:16 pm
Just out of curiosity—-
What happened to RightOSphere.com?
I have been under a rock for the last few months and don’t know what happened?
January 13th, 2011 at 7:20 pm
The Hispanic vote long ago wrote off the GOP as have other minority racial groups. Much to their detriment.
Big Government = the anti-MAN.
January 13th, 2011 at 7:50 pm
Hey Flap!
Great to hear from you!
Is installing DISQUS as simple as installing a plugin?
January 13th, 2011 at 7:54 pm
George W. tried to get the Hispanics and so did John McCain. Hispanics, except Cubans vote Democrat and nothing can stop it…It doesn’t matter what Republicans do…
January 13th, 2011 at 7:58 pm
LV,
If memory serves, W got about 45% of the Hispanic vote in ’08. That’s pretty good, and effectively neutralizes a would be Democratic bloc.
January 13th, 2011 at 7:58 pm
….in ’04, I mean.
January 13th, 2011 at 8:14 pm
Good point re: Gary Johnson… he’s a real small government Republican who was comfortably elected (and re-elected) in New Mexico. I’ve even heard him on conservative talk radio defending the honor of Mexican workers — saying that we get a lot of Mexico’s best. Johnson’s proposal of expanding the work visa program has a compelling logic behind it: cut the red tape and quotas so that anyone who really wants _to work_ can easily go through the process (like they did back in the Ellis Island days). Whether Republicans will really go for this remains to be seen. No one wants immigrants who only intend to go on the doll, but Republicans sometimes forget that most are hard working.
January 13th, 2011 at 8:32 pm
I definitely think the GOP needs to reach out to Hispanics and incorporate them into the Party. However, I think the fear of losing the Hispanic vote forever is probably overblown. Historically, the GOP has usually done poorly with first-generation immigrants; they usually come from poorer backgrounds and want more government assistance than less. However, the 2nd and 3rd generations who have been assimilated into American culture are more receptive to the GOP. After all, it took a while but white Catholics eventually started abandoning the Democratic Party to the point where in 2004, President Bush running against a very nominal Catholic, John Kerry, won the Catholic vote.
So yes, we need to reach out to Hispanics now to build a potential coalition in the future, but if we don’t win the first-generation of Hispanic voters, that doesn’t mean that they are lost forever.
January 13th, 2011 at 9:42 pm
Jonathan,
Good point, but if some Republicans keep speaking in racial overtones, they may become more like black voters, who have been Democrat now for over 3 generations.
January 13th, 2011 at 10:20 pm
This is very good, DaveG. What I think you are saying is that attempting to employ “group-identity politics” will not work for the GOP as an approach to Hispanics anymore than it has worked with Blacks or women; and therefore, the focus needs to remain on the Party’s core principles (or what once were its core principles) of individual free choice and responsibility, with more freedom and less government. Years ago, the GOP leadership used to stumble all over itself trying to showcase women or racial minorities in some very superficial way thinking that was going to be impressive. Rather, it looked insincere and phony, as if they didn’t have a clue as to what else to do. Republican core principles are not about group-identity but about individual identity, responsibility, ambition, and achievement—whether the individual is white, black, brown, red or yellow; male or female; gay or straight; Christian, Jewish or “none of the above.” Not to take anything away from Jeb Bush, but the guy currently on the scene who can really talk to this is Senator Marco Rubio of Florida. After all, he is the real guy–get him to tell you why he is a limited-government, pro-freedom Republican. Same goes for others in the Cuban community which has always tended to lean Republican. Why? Because of some group-identity “outreach” program? No, because many of them had first had experience with Communism or some other form of authoritarian government. You make a very good point about the Asians, another group that by intelligence, work ethic, entrepreneurship ought to be heavily Republican. The new RNC Chairman ought to spend a little money and effort to find out why they no longer are. At the same time, it might also be worth the effort to find out why a lot of educated, professional-class Caucasians who used to be reliable Republican voters no longer are. Group-identity politics overtime carries with it unforeseen consequences, the GOP leadership should carefully think-through its approach.
You made a good point about the Asians. The GOP did well among the Asians before it appeared to begin playing identity politics in a negative sense.
January 13th, 2011 at 10:41 pm
Chris,
As to your question about white professionals, here is one of the most brilliant little articles I have read on the subject, from a conservative, yet non-polemic perspective:
What’s the Matter With Connecticut?
January 13th, 2011 at 11:07 pm
#20: Leave it to Pat Buchanan’s rag to publish a piece attacking individualism and ambition.
Such Anti-American crap belongs in the Democratic Party. Of course, that rag endorsed John Kerry in 2004.
January 13th, 2011 at 11:17 pm
Yes, Kavon.
It is easy and it is newly revised. I like it because it affords a lot of options for social media.
And, it is easy for subscribers to follow threads.
January 13th, 2011 at 11:31 pm
Metro,
I didn’t read it so much as an attack as an observation. Do you not recognize anything in that article?
January 13th, 2011 at 11:34 pm
….and I seriously doubt they endorsed Kerry. They’ve had plenty of articles slamming him. If they followed the same format as ’08, they had a panel of writers each making the case for their own preferred candidate.
Anyway, it’s a thoughtful magazine that incorporates a variety of viewpoints from diverse points on the ideological spectrum.
January 14th, 2011 at 12:29 am
Google it: they endorsed Kerry.
January 14th, 2011 at 1:27 am
I’ve never understood exactly what is meant by “reaching out” to Hispanics. Those who are in survival mode financially appreciate the assistance provided by whomever steps forward as part of the larger familia (churches, Democrats, other sources)–what the GOP calls entitlements, they see as the more fortunate helping out the less fortunate. Once on their feet and successful, they begin to realize that their values more closely align with the GOP (but still don’t want cousins, aunts, uncles, nieces, nephews, etc. thrown out of the country).
January 14th, 2011 at 2:08 am
Kavon, Disquis can present problems, as well. I do not know it settings, but the format CaffeinatedThoughts uses, lines comments up by who replies to whow. That sounds intuitively smart, but is actually, I think, harder to navigate on a site that is comment-driven like R42012. Also when our site used Disquis, our webmaster lost all the archived comments (twice).
January 14th, 2011 at 3:45 am
“Hispanics like Asians, Jews and African Americans vote their race and except for a few (20-30%) are lost to any outreach.”
As an independent minority voter, I can tell you it’s not a matter of voting solely based on race. Voting based on culture maybe – but how is this any different from Southern whites overwhelmingly voting Republican, or Mormons doing the same? Its a little silly to hear this implication that minorities are some sort of unthinking sheep, when almost every culture tends to have a political bias of some kind – one which there is often good reason for.
Sure, large majorities of these groups vote Democrat – can you blame them? We’re talking about a modern GOP that fields a candidate for Governor of New York best known for passing along e-mails of the President dressed as an African tribesman and a pimp. And what was the point of focusing on Sonia Sotomayor’s “wise Latina” comment so obsessively? Was there some vital interest there that I missed? Almost every day us minorities open the paper and read yet another example of GOP racial innuendo or hostility – along with columns like this every election season asking why more minorities don’t vote GOP:)
The most laughable notion I keep reading in these sorts of columns is that GOP policies are so well-suited for minority groups that one day soon minorities will see the light and switch over. Not to make too fine a point of it, but both African American and Hispanic populations include a disproportionate number of poor, and high numbers of unemployed. No one minds a tax cut for the wealthy, but blocking unemployment being renewed, cutting funding for social services and talking about doing away with programs like Medicaid aren’t exactly slam dunk recipes for electoral success in this context.
A true outreach effort would include both a drastic change of tone as well as shifts in economic policy back towards the center. And if you think I’m being unrealistic here, so be it, but may as well not waste time on this subject. Its ironic though, that a party that has its roots in BOTH progressive, compassionate policy, at the same time that it was pro business is so unimaginative in its current drive ever further towards the right.
January 14th, 2011 at 5:20 am
“I would hope that a wise Latina woman with the richness of her experiences would, more often than not, reach a better conclusion,than a white male who hasn’t lived that life”
What if white man had said that he would come to better conclusions than latina woman? Wouldn’t that have been racist? And anyway it is not judge’s job to do decisions based on his or her race or sex, but based on law. Illegal immigration hurts especially those without college degree, and Democrats teacher union stoogeism hurts especially those who cannot afford to send their kids to private school.
January 14th, 2011 at 10:14 am
referring to my comment yesterday about Rubio, I meant Cuban, not Puerto Rican.
January 14th, 2011 at 12:30 pm
I am glad to see someone thinking about this issue at Race. Dave, your post is excellent but unfortunately I don’t see the status quo in the Republican party changing anytime soon. I think that Andrew’s comment above was perfect. If the Republicans want to win over Latinos then they will have to do two things:
1. Change their tone (which isn’t going to happen). The Republican Party is geared toward an older, white, rural population that doesn’t care for the increasingly multicultural feel of the United States.
2. Change some of their policies. Had Republicans continued supporting Romney-style health care policies like they had been doing since the 90s, then I think they would have better success at reaching minorities. But instead, Obama co-opted the conservative movement by adopting many of the Heritage Foundation’s policy prescriptions, and thus the Republicans decided that they must oppose all health care reform. Again, if Republicans want to win over non-white, urban, or educated voters, they must come up with solutions to problems, instead of just opposing everything that Obama does. Once again, I don’t see it happening.
January 14th, 2011 at 12:37 pm
Kavon,
Here is the url for DISQUS: http://disqus.com
There have been documented problems with the first go around but so far so good at flapsblog.
Again, it is the social networking tie in that I like and the direct reply to a comment, plus subscription features.
But, check it out.
There is another called Intense Debate: http://intensedebate.com. But, I did not like it as well and removed it from my sites.
January 15th, 2011 at 2:25 pm
No offense to anybody who has posted thus far, but I always love the comments on posts like this one which basically amount to “be more like me, and minority voters will vote for you.” Republicans should be more socially conservative. No, wait, more libertarian and less socially conservative. No, wait, more in favor of government-run anti-poverty programs (which have been oh so successful in the past fifty years).
The best way to find out what policies appeal to Hispanic voters would be to…talk to Hispanic voters. More broadly, we can’t win if we don’t freaking show up? The fact is, Republican organization in most minority areas is pathetic to non-existent, and not resourced at all. I worked on Hispanic outreach in Philli for Bush-Cheney in 2004, and we had people telling us they hadn’t spoken to a Republican canvasser in 24 years of living there. This, should, never, happen. Period. The biggest problem the Republicans have with African-Americans and Hispanics isn’t that they don’t have policies precisely calebrated to appeal to them. Anyone who thinks that”all minorities’ “most minorities” “the majority of minorities” believe anything is possessed of excess bovine excrement. The real, and fairly basic, problem Republicans have with minority communities is that we generally don’t put in the time, money and resources to build our ground game in urban or majority-minority areas. We could focus-group our policies into moderate Jimmy Carterdom, and it wouldn’t be worth a thing if we don’t build the ground game. It really is that simple, and that complicated.
January 15th, 2011 at 2:34 pm
And, to be clear, “showing up” and “building the ground game” does not mean sending a volunteer to talk to people in minority areas 72 hours before the election, in a vain hope that you can counter a lifetime of Democratic messaging. It is, quite frankly, way way too late for 2012; we need to start building–now–for competitiveness in 2016 or 2020, and we need to start running down-ticket candidates for local races way before that.