The R4’12 staff was asked to gaze into their crystal balls and tell us what they saw in store for us in 2011. Their predictions are printed below…
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Matthew Newman:
The RNC Chairmans race will quickly, after the first ballot, turn into everyone against Michael Steele. The non-Steele alliance will eventually coalesce around Saul Anuzis who will squeak by and become the next Chair. Anuzis will quickly disappear into the background and be a far less visible Chair, except for his continued Twitter presence, which will tone down some of rhetoric.
Superbowl 2011: Eagles vs. Ravens – Eagles squeak by with a victory and Disney asks someone who isn’t Michael Vick to say the, “I’m going to Disney World” line.
At CPAC 11 – the straw poll winners will be, in order – Herman Cain, Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee, Sarah Palin. Cain and Paul will have a lot of supporters present to help boost up his name recognition – though Paul may not actually run in 2012. Cain will be labeled winner for his surprise showing at CPAC.
By the the end of 1Q11 the following people will officially be running for President: Herman Cain, Tim Pawlenty, Fred Karger, Newt Gingrich, Rick Santorum
George Pataki will create a Presidential exploratory committee in April 2011.
Christine O’Donnell will be indicted on some count pertaining to tax evasion.
Upon failing at his local special election bid, Alvin Greene will announce for President. Once more, no one will pay attention to him.
By early May Romney, Thune, Daniels, and Palin will have announced their bids for the Presidency.
By August 2011, George Pataki will end his exploratory committee and use the remaining money to buy himself / his wife something pretty…just like he did in 2008.
Daniels, Karger, and Gingrich will skip out on Ames.
Ames Straw Poll results: Pawlenty, Romney, Cain, Palin, Gingrich, Thune, Santorum
Santorum and Thune will drop out soon after Ames. Cain will be labeled winner by media for his surprise showing in 3rd place.
A new, currently not yet mentioned candidate will emerge post-Ames – possibly Gary Johnson and John Bolton.
Kratovil will announce rematch with Harris (MD-01)
Allen will announce rematch with Webb (VA-SEN)
Jeb, Petraeus, and Huckabee will not run for President. Time may prove me wrong – but call it a hunch.
Unemployment will, unexpectedly, begin to rebound on its own by years end. We’ll have unemployment in the mid-7%s by years end. Just in time for the 2012 race to begin completely.
Primary polling by years end in IA: Pawlenty 25%, Romney 18%, Palin 15%, Cain 12%, Gingrich 10%, Bolton 10%, Johnson 5%
Primary polling by years end in NH: Romney 30%, Gingrich 17%, Johnson 15%, Pawlenty 13%, Cain 7%, Palin 5%, Bolton 2%
Primary polling by years end in SC: Pawlenty / Romney / Palin: 20%, Cain 12%, Gingrich 10%, Johnson 5%, Bolton 3%
Bob Hovic:
The unemployment rate edges (very) slowly downward, but is still over 8% at year-end. With Obama’s approval rating at about 35%, neither the Democrats nor their friends in the media can hide their panic. In October, Howard Dean announces his candidacy.
The one piece of good news for Democrats is that the Republicans seem unable to coalesce around a challenger. No Republican can break out of the pack – Mike Huckabee is leading the polls, but seems to be stuck in the mid twenties with Palin and Romney following in the high teens / low twenties.
By late summer the field has formed – it consists of John Bolton, Herman Cain, Mitch Daniels, Newt Gingrich, Mike Huckabee, Gary Johnson, Fred Karger , Sarah Palin, Ron Paul, Tim Pawlenty, Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum. (Note: Some half-wit birther announced this week, but I think I won’t give him the honor of being included on this list, nor of being linked or named).
Although it is often written of Mitt Romney that his support is ‘a mile wide and an inch deep’, it turns out that the candidate who suffers from the most severe case of inch-deepism is Newt Gingrich. His campaign fails to take off when it is discovered that his role as the pragmatic conservative alternative to Mitt Romney is more convincingly played by Mitch Daniels and Tim Pawlenty. Gingrich tries to tack hard right to take the role of chief red meat thrower from Sarah Palin. When this fails, the Gingrich campaign collapses and he withdraws just after Thanksgiving.
Santorum may or may not make it that far; he fares poorly in the Ames poll and is unable to draw any support, or even attention, from anyone outside the hardest core of the socons. Cain has a brief honeymoon with the press and is still around as the year ends. Karger also gets a little attention from the media, mostly those trying to embarrass the Republicans by playing up gay issues, but is otherwise ignored and quickly disappears.
A popular theme in late-year punditry is ‘Will Romney Survive to Super Tuesday?’ Iowa polls by then are showing Huckabee well ahead with Palin a strong second. Romney is a fading third, barely ahead of Pawlenty and Daniels, with the rest of the field trailing. Meanwhile, the race in New Hampshire, the keystone to Romney’s strategy, has tightened, with Daniels close on Romney’s heels and Johnson and Pawlenty running a respectable third/fourth. However, just about the time ‘Romney is doomed!’ becomes the CW, the contrarian view arises, noting that a ‘McCain Effect’ has set in, with contenders no longer sniping at Romney, giving him a shot at revival.
Johnson’s showing in New Hampshire badly wounds Paul’s ego, and he starts attacking Johnson as a LINO, damaging both of them.
Another screw-up/scandal/outrage (probably at TSA, but possibly ICE) finally gets Janet Napolitano fired.
In last year’s predictions I said that Newsweek would go under. I was wrong, but being sold for $1 is pretty close. This might be the year, but probably Sidney Harman has too much ego invested to give up this quickly. The Chicago Sun-Times may be the biggest disappearance of the year in the media business, but it’s possible that in some major city the only remaining paper shuts down.
The Bears surprise everybody by making it to the Super Bowl, where they are again crushed by the Colts, 37-10. The Phillies win the Series in five games over Tampa. The USA women’s team, after a shaky start, wins the World Cup 2-1 over Brazil.
Aron Goldman:
January 10, 2011: Herman Cain forms an exploratory committee, becoming the first presidential candidate of the 2012 cycle.
January 17, 2011: Sticking with Bill Clinton’s successful strategy of triangulation, Barack Obama delivers a State of the Union speech in which he commits to working with fiscal conservatives Tom Coburn and Paul Ryan to implement an increase in the retirement age and means testing Social Security and Medicare. The president also extends the olive branch to moderate GOPers Lindsey Graham, Lisa Murkowski, Lamar Alexander, Bob Corker, Scott Brown, Olympia Snowe, Susan Collins and Mark Kirk, offering concessions on an Energy bill that would result in investments in new nuclear power plants and clean coal technology. Speaker Boehner is seen shedding tears of joy. Former Speaker Pelosi cries tears of pain.
January 21, 2011: Tim Pawlenty and Rick Santorum announce plans to pursue the presidency.
January 22, 2011: Mike Pence decides to forgo a shot at the White House; instead, focusing his attentions on taking over for Mitch Daniels as Indiana’s governor.
February 6, 2011: NFL MVP Tom Brady leads the New England Patriots to a 34-21 victory over Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints.
February 25, 2011: In high-stakes game of chicken, Republicans and Tea Partiers responsibly blink first, raise debt ceiling.
April 1, 2011: No joke – Newt and Callista are actually running.
April 15, 2011: As certain as death and taxes, Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee are once again competing for the Republican nomination.
May 2, 2011: Mitch Daniels, John Thune, and Rudy Giuliani announce their candidacies on the eve of the debate at the Reagan Presidential Library. Mississippi Governor Haley Barbour, polling at 0.5%, endorses his good friend, Mitch.
June 15, 2011: Tim Duncan and the San Antonio Spurs defeat the Miami Heat in a thrilling seven game series.
July 4, 2011: President Obama makes good on his promise to begin a withdrawal of troops, ordering the redeployment of 10,000 Marines from Afghanistan…to North Waziristan.
August 13, 2011: South Dakota Senator John Thune surprises with a second place finish behind Mike Huckabee in the Ames straw poll. After a disappointing fourth place performance, however, Tim Pawlenty cuts his losses and moves back to Minnesota.
September 11, 2011: On the 10 year anniversary of 9/11, Rudy Giuliani receives a ringing endorsement from John Bolton.
September 26, 2011: Previously covert mission by U.S. Marines in Pakistan (see July 4, 2011) is published by Wikileaks.
September 27, 2011: After nearly four years apart, Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari and his beloved wife, Benazir Bhutto, are prematurely reunited.
October 31, 2011: Alex Rodriguez leads the Yankees to their 28th World Championship over Cliff Lee and the Philadelphia Phillies. A-Rod, the Series MVP, is spotted celebrating later that night with Sarah Palin’s precocious 17-year-old daughter, Willow.
November 1, 2011: New Jersey voters pass a ballot initiative making the state the second in the nation, besides Nevada, to permit sports betting.
Thanksgiving 2011: Learning that she will soon be blessed with a second grandchild, Sarah Palin announces she will remain a Momma Grizzly to her cubs, putting a presidential run on the back-burner until at least 2016.
Dave Gaultier:
Sarah Palin will run for president. Mike Huckabee won’t.
Newt Gingrich will enter the field and dominate the debates, but get little traction.
Jeb Bush will challenge Bill Nelson for his Senate seat in Florida.
Mike Pence will run for governor of Indiana.
Mitch Daniels will run for president. Haley Barbour will not. Daniels will be highly touted by establishment conservative media but will go nowhere in the polls.
Tim Pawlenty will finish the year in high single digits in most polls of GOP primary voters.
The economy will continue to sputter along for most of 2011.
Troop levels in Iraq will decrease dramatically.
In mid-2011, President Obama will attempt to pull a Clinton by negotiating a major entitlement reform package with Republicans in order to reduce the deficit and establish centrist street cred. The Democratic base will howl and nothing will be passed by Congress.
Hillary Clinton will resign as Secretary of State.
Mitt Romney will crater in polls of GOP primary voters all year.
At least one poll by year end will show Gary Johnson leading the field in New Hampshire.
In late 2011, either Mitt Romney will rebound unexpectedly as GOP voters begin to contemplate a second Obama term and decide to rally around the “electable” candidate in the field, OR a very right-wing dark horse candidate will enjoy an explosion in popular support from the GOP grassroots and jump to the head of the pack in polls of Iowa caucus voters.
December 31st, 2010 at 11:52 am
2012 Republicans:
• Mitt Romney will announce he’s running for President. This will surprise no one.
• One of the other Big Three will announce they won’t run for President.
• One of the 2nd tier candidates will start to rise in the polls. They’ll eventually be considered a contender.
• At one point, there will be at least 10 Republicans in a debate.
• The Ames Straw Poll will cause at least 2 candidates to drop out of the race.
2012 Democrats:
• Liberals will talk about a primary challenge to President Obama. Obama will laugh it off.
• Vice President Biden will stick his foot in his mouth. Rumors will start of dumping him from the ticket. It won’t happen.
The Republican Party:
• Michael Steele will not be reelected as Chair of the RNC.
• The next RNC Chair will be from the Midwest (Missouri counts as Midwestern).
• Erik Erickson will demand purity or a purge of Congressional Republicans. David Frum will bemoan their partisanship. Both will be ignored by the wider world.
• The fight between the Tea Party and Regular Republicans will continue.
Congress:
• The House will raise the debt-ceiling, all while bemoaning raising the debt ceiling.
• Obama and the GOP will make deals on some pieces of legislation. Obama will be hailed by the media. Congressional Republicans will be yelled at by the Tea Party.
• There will be serious talk about reforming the tax code.
• At least one free-trade agreement will be ratified.
• John Boehner will cry.
Entertainment:
• Conan O’Brian’s show on TBS will be cancelled. Fans will say its Leno’s fault.
• Jon Stewart will continuously be upheld as the great moral arbitrator of our time. Stephen Colbert will still be funnier.
• The Jersey Shore TV show will continue to exist for no good reason.
• Celebrities who do good things, like Gary Sinise, will continued to be ignored by the media, while those who do stupid things will gain a huge amount of publicity.
International:
• In Britain, the Lib Dem-Conservative Coalition will continue to fracture. Both Parties will suffer from deepening divisions. Labour won’t gain from this.
• In Italy, PM Berlusconi will get caught in a sex scandal. This is otherwise known as “A Tuesday” in Italy.
• In Russia, Vladimir Putin will announce he’s running for President again. Putin opponents might contemplate challenging him. Then they’ll decide they have other things they like to do more. Like living.
• China’s economy will continue to hum along. If it doesn’t, expect saber-rattling by Beijing towards Taiwan.
• Afghanistan will continue to be an issue. Obama will get support from more Republicans than Democrats in fighting the war.
Race42012:
• Aron will post enough polls to fill a statistics book. We will all bow down before his poll-posting greatness.
• Matt “MWS” will continue to pine for the restoration of the Hapsburg Monarchy. The heathens in Austria will disappoint him.
• Craig “Iowa” will post something that angers and offends Romney supporters.
• Tex will call 90% of people either “spineless liberals” or “Establishment RINO’s”
• At least one post about Romney and at least one about Huckabee will devolve into a brawl over religion.
Personal:
• I’ll complete my studies and graduate with my Bachelor’s Degrees in Political Science and History.
• I’ll post something on Race42012 that’ll offend Romney supporters, Huckabee supporters, and/or Palin supporters.
• I’ll even learn how to post something on Race without having to email it to Kavon.
• At least five of these will be right.
• At least five of these will be wrong.
December 31st, 2010 at 12:06 pm
Sorry, I’ll repost that with some actual spaces:
2012 Republicans:
• Mitt Romney will announce he’s running for President. This will surprise no one.
• One of the other Big Three will announce they won’t run for President.
• One of the 2nd tier candidates will start to rise in the polls. They’ll eventually be considered a contender.
• At one point, there will be at least 10 Republicans in a debate.
• The Ames Straw Poll will cause at least 2 candidates to drop out of the race.
2012 Democrats:
• Liberals will talk about a primary challenge to President Obama. Obama will laugh it off.
• Vice President Biden will stick his foot in his mouth. Rumors will start of dumping him from the ticket. It won’t happen.
The Republican Party:
• Michael Steele will not be reelected as Chair of the RNC.
• The next RNC Chair will be from the Midwest (Missouri counts as Midwestern).
• Erik Erickson will demand purity or a purge of Congressional Republicans. David Frum will bemoan their partisanship. Both will be ignored by the wider world.
• The fight between the Tea Party and Regular Republicans will continue.
Congress:
• The House will raise the debt-ceiling, all while bemoaning raising the debt ceiling.
• Obama and the GOP will make deals on some pieces of legislation. Obama will be hailed by the media. Congressional Republicans will be yelled at by the Tea Party.
• There will be serious talk about reforming the tax code.
• At least one free-trade agreement will be ratified.
• John Boehner will cry.
Entertainment:
• Conan O’Brian’s show on TBS will be cancelled. Fans will say its Leno’s fault.
• Jon Stewart will continuously be upheld as the great moral arbitrator of our time. Stephen Colbert will still be funnier.
• The Jersey Shore TV show will continue to exist for no good reason.
• Celebrities who do good things, like Gary Sinise, will continued to be ignored by the media, while those who do stupid things will gain a huge amount of publicity.
International:
• In Britain, the Lib Dem-Conservative Coalition will continue to fracture. Both Parties will suffer from deepening divisions. Labour won’t gain from this.
• In Italy, PM Berlusconi will get caught in a sex scandal. This is otherwise known as “A Tuesday” in Italy.
• In Russia, Vladimir Putin will announce he’s running for President again. Putin opponents might contemplate challenging him. Then they’ll decide they have other things they like to do more. Like living.
• China’s economy will continue to hum along. If it doesn’t, expect saber-rattling by Beijing towards Taiwan.
• Afghanistan will continue to be an issue. Obama will get support from more Republicans than Democrats in fighting the war.
Race42012:
• Aron will post enough polls to fill a statistics book. We will all bow down before his poll-posting greatness.
• Matt “MWS” will continue to pine for the restoration of the Hapsburg Monarchy. The heathens in Austria will disappoint him.
• Craig “Iowa” will post something that angers and offends Romney supporters.
• Tex will call 90% of people either “spineless liberals” or “Establishment RINO’s”
• At least one post about Romney and at least one about Huckabee will devolve into a brawl over religion.
Personal:
• I’ll complete my studies and graduate with my Bachelor’s Degrees in Political Science and History.
• I’ll post something on Race42012 that’ll offend Romney supporters, Huckabee supporters, and/or Palin supporters.
• I’ll even learn how to post something on Race without having to email it to Kavon.
• At least five of these will be right.
• At least five of these will be wrong.
December 31st, 2010 at 1:00 pm
Loving the predictions thread. Thanks Dave for coordinating this. I’d love to see our regular poster’s a) thoughts and b) own predictions!
December 31st, 2010 at 1:05 pm
I predict we’ll all continue watching the polls…somewhat excitedly when our favorite candidate is ahead and take it with a grain of salt (or conspiracy theories) if our favorite candidate is behind.
December 31st, 2010 at 2:57 pm
Great prediction, all
…
I predict RNC Chairman Michael Steele remains RNC Chairman and that really makes Jonathan mad.
Even if Steele’s accomplishments are historical:
•Winning a record number of Republican seats, 690 to be exact, more than any Chairman since 1938.
•During a time when his party did not control the White House, he raised more money than any other chairman, Republican or Democrat has; over $192 Million, even beating the 2006 Democrats by 47%.
- from Politico today (I know, I know, I know … Politico is completely in on the conspiracy to harm Romney, Palin, Dinosaurs, and the Republican “establishment”.)
December 31st, 2010 at 3:32 pm
> One of our big four, Palin announces she’s not running but instead is backing Herman Cain for President.
Cain’s numbers instantly soar 1000% nearly approaching 10%. The rest of her supporters flock to Huck…
> Romney guests on Huckabee’s show … Turns out Mitt can play some sticks and offers to sit in with the Little Rockers. Mike accepts. He and Mitt form an amazing pwerful backbeat on bass and drums while performing their own version of Sweet Home Alabama. They BBQ that weekend at Huck’s new palace on the Florida Redneck Riviera…hell freezes over.
> Aron Goldman continues to posts polls from all sources. Two of the big four begin to receive inevitable unwanted news from the doomsayer, Matt “MWS”.
> Poor losers cry out, “RINOS, all of you!!!” Poor winners retort, “It takes one to know one.” And, as fot me – I still don’t know what a RINO is.
> Dave Goodrich, Illinoisguy, Bosoman, Doug, Martha and other hardcore Rombots are forced to choose between Huck and Palin as their heads simultaneously explode at even the thought.
December 31st, 2010 at 4:04 pm
Wow, Aron’s were right on the money. Every. Single. One.
I’m very impressed.
Except for these two minor ones…
February 6, 2011: NFL MVP Tom Brady leads the New England Patriots to a 34-21 victory over Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints. [Who dat say dey gonna beat dem Saints? Won't happen. After the Black Eyed Peas rock Cowboys Stadium at halftime on FOX... Bush, Brees & Co. go on to repeat as champs 35-34 with a stunning 4th quarter comeback which is hailed as the greatest Super Bowl EVER played. Reggie named Super Bowl MVP.]
June 15, 2011: Tim Duncan and the San Antonio Spurs defeat the Miami Heat in a thrilling seven game series. [Nah, I'll say my Lakers three-peat for the 2nd time this century ... 2000, 2001, 2002, 2009, 2010, 2011. But hey, what do I know?]
December 31st, 2010 at 4:57 pm
FLASHBACK: Race 4 2012 New Year’s Writers’ Predictions
December 31, 2009
December 31st, 2010 at 5:40 pm
will we get at least 1 2012 exploratory announcement in January?
December 31st, 2010 at 5:41 pm
I predict that Palin and her hardcore supporters will run out of paper trying to list everyone in 2011 to their enemies list.
Barbour offered praise for Obama’s efforts in March, when the first lady toured Mississippi, the nation’s fattest state for the fifth straight year and one that has its own statewide efforts to fight fat.
“As Mrs. Obama takes this campaign nationally, she’ll be a catalyst. . . . She’ll be a fantastic spokesman, leader,” he said.
And Santorum said Wednesday that it is “a proper role for the first lady to highlight something as important as childhood nutrition and what parents can do.”
“This is just basic good health and we as parents can sympathize with what she’s doing,” he added.
Yet Santorum also said that there are legitimate concerns about the intrusiveness of government – in curbing junk food at schools, for instance.
The opinion page of the Wall Street Journal on Monday quoted Palin’s own past health-centric comments and said, “Mrs. Obama’s campaign is grounded in similar sentiments.” It then offered this rare shot at Palin:
“Mrs. Palin would be more effective if she made some distinctions among the Obama policies that really are worth opposing.”
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/12/29/AR2010122901940.html
December 31st, 2010 at 5:45 pm
Greg, see Aron’s list.
I also predict that Voter in ’09 made the best prediction going forward…
December 31st, 2010 at 5:50 pm
Adam, too.
62.voter Says:
December 31st, 2009 at 2:27 pm
Most of you are going to be in for a shock vis-a-vis Huckabee.
The only way Huckabee isn’t running (frankly he has never STOPPED running from 2008) in 2012 is if Obama is unbeatable in 2012.
I agree wholeheartedly with Adam G — he will probably be the last to come in so that he can maintain media exposure on his show and radio reports — as well as build up the buzz. The only announcement he will make on “Huckabee” is that he is running. If he thinks Obama is basically guaranteed a second term, he will not make such an announcement on his show. And he will bide his time before he decides the “unbeatable Obama” stance, because, as we all know, events turn quickly.
December 31st, 2010 at 6:07 pm
Happy New Year Everyone!
Thanks for the flashback link Aron. It was interesting to read those former posts.
I am not a big predictor, but I hope that race42012 takes off again as I miss hearing from some of the people who use to post.
Enjoy all the football games, stay safe, and here’s to a healthy, productive New Year!
December 31st, 2010 at 7:16 pm
rumors are flying that some stwp down announcements might come next week from the White house so if Hillary steps down as sec of state will that mean anything or does it mean she’s tired of being sec of state?
December 31st, 2010 at 9:59 pm
I’ll do this the same way I did it last year:
US PREDICTIONS:
- The following people will be running for President by Fall: Herman Cain, Mitch Daniels, Mitt Romney, Gary Johnson, Rick Santorum, Newt Gingrich, Tim Pawlenty, Sarah Palin, Judd Gregg and John Bolton. Huckabee signs a new deal with FOX and endorses his colleague Sarah Palin.
- By year’s end, Sarah Palin leads Newt Gingrich by 10 points in Iowa and 20 points in South Carolina after being endorsed by Governor Nikki Haley. Gary Johnson and Mitt Romney are tied in New Hampshire. Candidates drop out in this order: Santorum, Pawlenty, Gregg, Bolton, Daniels and Cain. Heading into Super Tuesday, the race will be down to Sarah Palin, Newt Gingrich, Gary Johnson and Mitt Romney.
- Democrats in the Senate will not learn their lesson and will continue to block any and all Republican efforts to address entitlement reform, immigration and the economy. Thusly, polls by the end of the year show Democrats on their way to losing control of the Senate in 2012
- Regarding future Senate candidates, Jeb Bush will NOT run in Florida. Linda McMahon will run again in Connecticut after receiving the support of Joe Lieberman, who decides against running for re-election. Sarah Steelman will become the front-runner in Missouri after Jim Talent decides to run for Governor. In Virginia, the race will come down to Jamie Radtke and George Allen. Jim Webb will decide NOT to seek re-election, and Virginia Democrats turn to former Governor Tim Kaine.
- In this year’s gubernatorial elections, Mississippi will elect its first female governor in former Lieutenant Governor Amy Tuck. David Williams will defeat Steve Beshear in Kentucky and Bobby Jindal will be easily re-elected.
- President Obama’s poll numbers will rebound slightly in the spring, but as gas prices push towards $4 a gallon in the summer, his numbers will tank. His approval rating will be below 40% by September, leading centrist Democrats like Evan Bayh and Russ Feingold to actively contemplate challenging him. In the end, none of them will run as the DNC fights to project a sense of “party unity,” thinking it will save them.
- Their will be a major re-shuffling of President Obama’s cabinet. Janet Napolitano, Eric Holder, Timothy Geithner and Joe Biden will all be gone by year’s end. In what he sees as a stroke of genius, President Obama chooses HHS Secretary Kathleen Sebelius as his running mate.
- Ann Wagner is narrowly elected RNC Chairwoman, defeating Reince Priebus who becomes her Co-Chair. She leads the RNC to raise more than $500 million in the 2011-2012 cycle.
WORLD PREDICTIONS:
- Former First Lady Mirlande Manigat is elected President of Haiti.
- The “First Past the Post” system of electing British MP’s will be defeated in the Alternative Vote referendum in May.
- Iran develops its first nuclear bomb by the Summer, prompting an attack on nuclear facilities by Israel.
- The situation in Ivory Coast worsens until an agreement is reached between Laurent Gbagbo and Alassane Ouattara, in which Gbagbo becomes Prime Minister.
- Germany drops the Euro as its currency, prompting the collapse of the eurozone. At least one European government will collapse in 2011
SPORTS:
- Oregon defeats Auburn 56-49 in the the highest scoring BCS National Championship ever.
- The Philadelphia Eagles and Kansas City Chiefs play in Super Bowl XLV, with the Eagles winning 31-17.
December 31st, 2010 at 10:23 pm
question if obama reshuffles his cabinet should we expect the reshuffle completed by like late winter like holidays 2011?
January 1st, 2011 at 1:24 am
I’ll give myself 6/10 for 2010 – but much more confident about 2011.
Presidential Politics
Jan
Cain & Johnson announce
Obama’s SOTU “we must all do our bit” speech is well received and his approval rating gets back to the 50′s, before dropping back in the 40′s in the summer (he always sux in the summer) and is right on 50/50 at 12/31/11, with unemployment dropping to 8.9%.
Pence announces that he’s running for Gov instead.
Feb
Pawlenty announces – is initially seem as the first “serious” contender, and does well later in the year at Ames, before going downhill from there and eventually dropping out after NH.
Santorum announces. Eventually surprises everyone by beating Pawlenty in Iowa – but doesn’t do well in NH and drops out afterwards.
March
Thune announces and is considered one to watch.
Newt gets in with quite a bit of fan-fare and 90′s retrospectism. Much like Rudy in 2007 his poll numbers are very good – until it actually comes time to vote! he too is out, after SC.
Bolton announces.
April
Romney announces in late April right after the Royal wedding. Romney’s 2011 is almost the same as McCain’s 2007. There is little enthusiam for him and his fund-raising is not as good as expected. Until July all the air is sucked out of the race by Huck & Sarah’s refusal to declare whether they intend to jump into the race.
May
Daniels jumps in, claiming that Washinton is broken (similar to Romney’s speech actually). Barbour immediately endorses him. Also considered a real chance to win, athough this is not reflected in the polls (Daniels does not take off till NH where he and Thune give Romney the fright of his life!).
June
Pressure mounts on Huck & Sarah to decide. Rudy & Pataki confirm that they won’t run.
July – big month!
Palin finally announces on July 4 (till the end she needs the attention) that this is not her time and that her family needs her. She ends up not endorsing till the winner becomes clear in March/April 2012 (if Palin happens to run Huck either doesn’t run – or doesn’t do as well in Iowa – either way Palin remains a national laughing stock and 2012 is a 3 way Mitt/Thune/Daniels race).
In late July Huck becomes the last entry into the race. With Romney tanking in the summer Huck bursts out to a 15 point lead over Newt, and Time & Newsweek declare him the “inevitable nominee”.
August
The first serious debate takes place with all 10 candidates in the lead up to Ames and is very exciting. Huck wins Ames despite only announcing weeks before. T/Paw comes second and tries to talk himself up. Romney and Newt tie for third well back. Thune and Daniels say that they don’t take the straw poll that seriously and have absolutely no intention of dropping out. In fact bizarrely no declared candidates drop out all year.
September
Politics takes a back seat as virtually the whole month is dedicated to the 10 years anniversary of 9/11. Obama gives a very well received UN speech.
October
Some pressure mounts on Bush or Rubio to run as the Huck onslaught begins to fizz out a bit. Neither do.
November
There are rumours that Romney may drop out of the race as he hits 9% in some polls and 5th place in Iowa! He doesn’t.
December
As Obama’s numbers rise so do Mitt’s as people start to give him a second look and Huck’s scandals (Drummond mainly) erupt. The electability argument, together with the receding of the power of the Tea-Party/Palin/Beck, as the year comes to an end, sees a big Mitt comeback. The media declare it now a 2 man war, completely missing the gradual under the radar rise of the insurgents Thune and Daniels, who remain content to let the two heavyweights try to knock themselves out in Iowa and just in life generally. Newt continues to complain that no-one is paying much attention even though he was second in the polls behind Huck virtually all year.
National numbers as at 12/31/11
27 Huck
18 Romney
15 Newt
9 Thune, Daniels
8 Pawlenty
4 Santorum
3 Cain
2 Johnson
1 Bolton
* after Newt & T/Paw drop out after NH, 2012 ends up being a very interesting and close 4 way go between Mitt/Huck/Thuney/Daniels! We beat Obama if anyone but Huck wins.
Elsewhere
Falcons upset the Patriots in the Superbowl. Neither Woods or Federer win a single major! Kim & Fidel finally die! Alan Johnson replaces the hapless Ed Miliband. Brown is not primaried. Others are.
January 1st, 2011 at 11:27 am
2011 Predictions…
The organizers at Race42012 posted their 2011 predictions. Below are mine:The RNC Chairmans race will quickly, after the first ballot, turn into everyone against Michael Steele. The non-Steele alliance will eventually coalesce around Saul Anuzis who wi…
January 1st, 2011 at 11:59 am
[...] Race42012.com New Year’s Predictions – Race42012.com by Kavon W. Nikrad @ 11:57 am. Filed under R4'12 Essential Reads [Comments (0)] [Trackback URL] [link] [Print This Post ] Trackback URL for this post: http://race42012.com/2011/01/01/race42012-essential-reads-january-1st-2011/trackback/ [...]
January 1st, 2011 at 2:18 pm
Heath,
If the final four is who you say, Huck (the most liked conservative by far) will very likely be our next nominee since the other three cancel each other out in more ways than one.
The other three are made up of TARPers, earmarkers, and a Bush deficit apologist.
And if the economy does not drastically improve in the next 23 months…
It will be Huck/Kasich ..the 2012 winning team!:)! Book it.
February 16th, 2011 at 8:11 pm
Lol,I adore Miami! They are the top team in bball! We will never see another 3 headed monsterteam like this again! Go D Wade!
July 26th, 2011 at 4:43 pm
Great info….
[...] This information decisively tells it like it is. It is in total accord with how I see it and I deemed it worthy of a link back to it on the lobg I’m in charge of. Thanks. [...]…