At this early point, with not a single GOP presidential candidacy formally announced, I see three general scenarios that will likely unfold over the next 18 months that will lead to a Republican presidential nominee.
All scenarios include current frontrunner Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich. All scenarios also include most of the second and third tier candidates, including Tim Pawlenty, Mitch Daniels, Haley Barbour, John Thune, Rick Santorum, Fred Thompson, Rudy Giuliani and Mike Pence. (By the time of the Iowa GOP Straw Poll, or soon after it, those on this list who have announced they would run may no longer be in the race.)
Scenario Number 2 includes either Mike Huckabee or Sarah Palin, but not the other, plus all or most of the above.
Scenario Number 3 includes both Mike Huckabee and Sarah Palin, plus all or most of the above.
A variation of all three of these scenarios includes a formidable candidate not on any list, but who emerges rather suddenly in the next few months. An example of this would be Jeb Bush who most observers now believe will not be a candidate for president before 2016. I note as a cautionary that very late-emerging candidacies (such as Wendell Willkie’s in 1940) are quite rare and even more unlikely in today’s TV-internet-blog new environment.
I suggest that each of the three scenarios has a specific and contrasting character. Both Mr. Huckabee and Mrs. Palin were major figures in the 2008 presidential campaign, although only Mr. Huckabee went through the primary season. Each of them registers very high on virtually all pre-campaign season polls, and each of them has national bases. With both of them in the race, the primary season is very crowded, and the outcome very much in doubt from the perspective of December, 2010.
If only one of them is in the race, the field is less crowded. but the other could play a role in selecting the nominee by throwing his or her support behind any of the other candidates.
If neither of them is in the race, the field takes a different shape after the Iowa straw poll and subsequent Iowa caucus, followed soon after by New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada. The nomination may not be settled by then, but is likely to be over after Super Tuesday. In this scenario, Mr. Romney, Mr. Gingrich and one of the “darker horses” (Pawlenty? Daniels?) will soon become the finalists.
In short, I think all early speculation about who will be the 2012 Republican presidential nominee needs to take into account these possible political permutations. Initially, the field could be very large (10-14 candidates), but history and experience tells us such a field will narrow very quickly.
December 27th, 2010 at 9:19 am
First, you can eliminate Newt, his baggage will soon take him out.
Second, no one seriously thinks Palin has a prayer for the nomination, and she would hand Obama 4 more years, take her out.
Third, While if Huckabee decides to run, he has the best chance of the three, but with combination of personal debt/income (Just borrowed 3 mil to buy a house) from his new career and his lack of funding for a national run, it is unlikely he will run.
Finally, Romney will run, the only question is, who will be the anti-Romney candidate (there is always 2 guys who emerge).
Finally, Romney will win Nevada and New Hampshire. If he happens to win either Iowa or SC, its over. Otherwise, Super Tuesday will be the deciding factor. Of course, with so much uncertainty about the nomination schedule, things could change.
December 27th, 2010 at 9:33 am
All three make sense Barry. Bill Kristol said last week I think, that the consensus seems to be that the GOP wants a large field of candidates. The Ames Straw Poll will probably take out at least one or two of them and a couple others will drop out before Iowa. David Yepsen always says there are 3 tickets out of Iowa, so we’ll just have to see who gets their ticket punched.
December 27th, 2010 at 11:55 am
Late emerging candidates? You mean like Fred Thompson in 2008? We saw how well that worked.
here’s hoping that John Bolton catches on with the voters.
December 27th, 2010 at 12:21 pm
The best chance for a new candidate to emerge is the Ames Straw Poll. If Romney and Huckabee finish one/two in either order at Ames, it’s probable that no new candidate who presents a serious challenge will emerge. For all of his vaunted underdog status in 2007, if the Huckster hadn’t finished 2nd at Ames, he couldn’t have pulled off the Iowa victory.
December 27th, 2010 at 1:09 pm
Cut to the chase…
Momentum, baby: Iowa! South Carolina! Florida!
Huck/Kasich 2012
December 27th, 2010 at 6:26 pm
Well said Thunder.
There is only one candidate assured of making it to Super Tuesday and that is Willard (because he’ll win NH & Nevada).
And once he’s there he can afford (lierally!) to spend big to compete all the way through to the convention.
It’s going to be Mitt v someone else. Whether that someone else Thune, Daniels or Huck will be the story of 2011 and beyond.
ps Dave Huck is NOT competing at Ames next year. He may be techically on the ballot but won’t be playing as he would have announced only weeks before.
December 27th, 2010 at 6:49 pm
“Three Scenarios For The GOP Nomination
All scenarios include current frontrunner Mitt Romney” – Barry C.
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I guess if you keep putting “frontrunner” in front of Mitt’s name, someone someday just might believe it.
December 27th, 2010 at 6:55 pm
6.Heath Says:
December 27th, 2010 at 6:26 pm
“It’s going to be Mitt v someone else. Whether that someone e’lse Thune, Daniels or Huck will be the story of 2011 and beyond.”
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I think it will be the first two finishers in Florida with a shot at the nomination providing they also finsh 1-2 in South Carolina..
That being, either Huck and Newt. Or Huck and Romney.
Third place finishes (or worse) in both SC AND FL are fatal, imo.
December 28th, 2010 at 12:54 am
You could well be right Craig.
The two main things we’ve learnt in the last 1/4 is that Mitt is (at the moment) a weak frontrunner and that there is literally no conceivable way that Palin wins the nomination.
December 28th, 2010 at 4:55 am
Mittens will not run as he will realize that does not love america after all since all he wants is money and power.
Romney is a shrewd politician but not leader with backbones and sincerity to become american president.
Just ask his brother ##tan about that.
December 28th, 2010 at 6:38 am
Kavon is going to ban you for that comment! And rightly so. Disgraceful.