PPP (D) North Carolina Presidential Survey
- Mike Huckabee 46% (48%)
- Barack Obama 45% (44%)
- Barack Obama 46% (44%)
- Mitt Romney 43% (44%)
- Barack Obama 48% (46%)
- Newt Gingrich 42% (45%)
- Barack Obama 52% (48%)
- Sarah Palin 38% (43%)
Among Independents
- Mike Huckabee 47% (46%)
- Barack Obama 37% (37%)
- Barack Obama 41% (39%)
- Newt Gingrich 38% (44%)
- Barack Obama 44% (37%)
- Mitt Romney 37% (50%)
- Barack Obama 51% (42%)
- Sarah Palin 33% (46%)
Among Conservatives
- Mike Huckabee 75% (79%)
- Barack Obama 16% (15%)
- Mitt Romney 71% (72%)
- Barack Obama 18% (16%)
- Newt Gingrich 69% (75%)
- Barack Obama 21% (16%)
- Sarah Palin 67% (68%)
- Barack Obama 21% (18%)
Among Moderates
- Barack Obama 56% (55%)
- Mike Huckabee 31% (30%)
- Barack Obama 58% (57%)
- Mitt Romney 31% (28%)
- Barack Obama 61% (59%)
- Newt Gingrich 28% (29%)
- Barack Obama 68% (61%)
- Sarah Palin 22% (30%)
Among Men
- Mike Huckabee 51% (55%)
- Barack Obama 38% (36%)
- Mitt Romney 49% (52%)
- Barack Obama 39% (37%)
- Newt Gingrich 45% (55%)
- Barack Obama 44% (38%)
- Barack Obama 46% (39%)
- Sarah Palin 44% (51%)
Among Women
- Barack Obama 50% (50%)
- Mike Huckabee 42% (41%)
- Barack Obama 52% (53%)
- Newt Gingrich 39% (37%)
- Barack Obama 53% (50%)
- Mitt Romney 39% (37%)
- Barack Obama 56% (55%)
- Sarah Palin 33% (35%)
Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}
- Mike Huckabee 43% (44%) / 34% (31%) {+9%}
- Mitt Romney 34% (33%) / 39% (38%) {-5%}
- Newt Gingrich 35% (34%) / 47% (43%) {-12%}
- Sarah Palin 36% (36%) / 57% (55%) {-21%}
Among Republicans
- Mike Huckabee 72% (67%) / 15% (11%) {+57%}
- Sarah Palin 68% (62%) / 24% (24%) {+44%}
- Newt Gingrich 65% (56%) / 23% (20%) {+42%}
- Mitt Romney 57% (44%) / 21% (22%) {+36%}
Among Independents
- Mike Huckabee 39% (51%) / 31% (26%) {+8%}
- Newt Gingrich 34% (33%) / 43% (41%) {-9%}
- Mitt Romney 30% (46%) / 39% (32%) {-9%}
- Sarah Palin 36% (38%) / 52% (50%) {-16%}
Among Conservatives
- Mike Huckabee 66% (62%) / 12% (17%) {+54%}
- Newt Gingrich 58% (56%) / 24% (22%) {+34%}
- Sarah Palin 60% (58%) / 31% (31%) {+29%}
- Mitt Romney 45% (44%) / 25% (27%) {+20%}
Among Moderates
- Mike Huckabee 33% (33%) / 44% (33%) {-11%}
- Mitt Romney 32% (26%) / 45% (40%) {-13%}
- Newt Gingrich 21% (18%) / 63% (55%) {-42%}
- Sarah Palin 21% (22%) / 73% (67%) {-52%}
Among Men
- Mike Huckabee 49% (47%) / 40% (31%) {+9%}
- Newt Gingrich 40% (43%) / 50% (41%) {-10%}
- Mitt Romney 36% (39%) / 47% (39%) {-11%}
- Sarah Palin 42% (42%) / 54% (50%) {-12%}
Among Women
- Mike Huckabee 38% (41%) / 28% (31%) {+10%}
- Mitt Romney 32% (29%) / 32% (38%) {0%}
- Newt Gingrich 31% (26%) / 45% (45%) {-14%}
- Sarah Palin 31% (30%) / 60% (60%) {-29%}
Do you approve or disapprove of President Barack Obama’s job performance?
- Approve 46% (45%)
- Disapprove 49% (51%)
Do you support or oppose the tax deal President Obama made with Congressional Republicans last week?
Survey of 520 North Carolina voters was conducted December 17-19, 2010. The margin of error is +/- 4.3 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted November 19-21, 2010 are in parentheses. Party ID breakdown: 46% (49%) Democrat; 34% (35%) Republican; 21% (17%) Independent/Other. Political ideology: 43% (42%) Conservative; 40% (38%) Moderate; 17% (20%) Liberal.
December 22nd, 2010 at 12:48 pm
Any Democrat is going to do better in a ‘Voters’ poll than in an actual election. Either Huckabee or Romney would win North Carolina. During the stretch drive of the Presidential campaign, pollsters will switch to “likely voters” and our prospects will brighten considerably.
BTW, it should be noted that PPP polls, while ALWAYS untrustworthy, are especially so in their home base of North Carolina.
December 22nd, 2010 at 12:49 pm
I think what this and the Florida poll both show is that people do have serious reservations about Obama and are not happy with his leadership. But (and this is a big but), they are less than convinced that putting a Republican in the White House would be any better.
December 22nd, 2010 at 12:56 pm
Jonathan,
With your #2 in mind what do you think would happen from 2013-2017 with Obama in the White House, GOP +40 or so in the House and GOP +3 or so in the Senate?
December 22nd, 2010 at 1:04 pm
Ray:
I think we’ll find out in the next year. We’re essentially going to be able to reek havoc in the Senate and we will control the House. Obama can either do the Clintonesque triangulation, even after he wins reelection, or he could be more like Harry Truman, who just fought with Congress the entire time.
December 22nd, 2010 at 1:06 pm
So Obama beats Huck among FL Indies by 36, but loses to Huck among NC Indies by 10?
No.
December 22nd, 2010 at 1:09 pm
I wonder if this could be why Charlotte NC is still on the DNC convention ”short list”?
December 22nd, 2010 at 1:45 pm
Greg,
Could be…but it didn’t help us in MN.
Things look good for my guy in NC.
December 22nd, 2010 at 1:45 pm
who’s your guy?
December 22nd, 2010 at 1:52 pm
Do the Convention cities help that much? is that why it’s taking the dnc so long to announce the convention city?
December 22nd, 2010 at 1:57 pm
Mitt comes closest to beating Obama in FL with Newt and Mike not far behind. Mike is the only candidate to beat Obama in NC with Mitt closest behind. I’m looking forward to seeing which candidates do best in the GOP races for both states…even if the polls are meaningless this far out when the campaigning hasn’t really begun.
Mike and Mitt remain the toughest against Obama – if they can beat Sarah for the nomination.
December 22nd, 2010 at 2:00 pm
Greg,
I’m a moderator at Huck’s Army and Donna at ROS.
December 22nd, 2010 at 2:08 pm
i wish some one would make a 2012 exploratory announcement soon! lets get thing started!!!
December 22nd, 2010 at 2:16 pm
is palin out now for 2012 was reading politico this AM she could be in talks with tlc for season 2 tv show link is here?? http://www.politico.com/click/stories/1012/murmurs_of_alaska_season_two.html
December 22nd, 2010 at 2:17 pm
Greg,
With the recent demolition derby regarding Romneycare/Obamacare, Huckabee siding with Obama, Paul and Ryan on tax bill compromise and Palin/Huckabee/Michelle Obama food fight… Can you imagine how much campaigning wool cost? Mike should hold out to earn a living until at least August before announcing…Sarah too.
December 22nd, 2010 at 2:36 pm
Granny,
If Huckabee and Sarah hold off on announcing until next August, they’re toast. May is about the latest one can announce if a candidate wants to win.
The Ames Straw Poll is in August, and it takes months to build a winning organization for it. And that’s not to mention the early debates, and the fact that pressure mounts on key Republicans to pick sides LONG before August.
December 22nd, 2010 at 2:48 pm
http://www.politico.com/click/stories/1012/murmurs_of_alaska_season_two.html
I don’t get it if palin is jumping in 2012 why would she be talking to TLC for a season 2 does this mean she skips 2012?
December 22nd, 2010 at 2:56 pm
same with the fox news gigs for her and huckabee they have to decide to say at fox news soon jump or jump out of there contracts soon i would think with the election rules I don’t think the can keep there TV deals and start a ”test the waters” campaign
December 22nd, 2010 at 3:03 pm
Barack Obama 52% (48%)
Sarah Palin 38% (43%)
===
Wow!
Speaking of toast.
December 22nd, 2010 at 3:10 pm
By waiting till August and for the 1st Iowa debate to make his splash, Huck’s going to gain about $50,000,000 in free advertising for the “Huckabee for President” brand from his daily television and radio gigs.
Sarah stands to benefit, too. (If she even runs after seeing today’s dismal numbers in NC and FL.)
For Romney, the sooner he gets in the better. PLEASE jump in early, Mitt!
!
December 22nd, 2010 at 3:15 pm
Key Numbers:
Among Independents
Mike Huckabee 47% (46%)
Barack Obama 37% (37%)
Barack Obama 44% (37%)
Mitt Romney 37% (50%)
Barack Obama 51% (42%)
Sarah Palin 33% (46%)
Everyone is slip slidin’ away BUT Huck!
December 22nd, 2010 at 3:23 pm
i am guessing if fox news were to announce palin and huck and newt Gingrich were leaving foxnews that would give us a big clue on those 3 people are there any other fox news 2012 people I am missing out?
December 22nd, 2010 at 5:17 pm
Keep in mind that the PPP polls accurately predicted the Pennsylvania Senate nailbiter this year while many other pollsters were calling it an easy win for Toomey.
What folks need to realize is that all of the Big Four are damaged goods to some degree or other. They have been in the spotlight for too long and have accumulated lots of battle scars. Also, Obama has had a good month. Polls showed Americans agreed with Democrats on DADT and START, and the tax deal was popular, and the president usually is the one who gets credit for popular compromises. An Obama uptick plus a weak field is what is causing these results.
December 22nd, 2010 at 6:44 pm
More questionable polling from PPP. Huck only wins by 1 pt and everyone else loses, some by small margins (Mitt 3 pts), or huge margins Palin (14 pts). This in a state that Bush carried by 12 pts in 2004 and Obama carried by a single point under the most favorable of circumstances in 2008.
December 22nd, 2010 at 6:58 pm
Also, Richard Burr just won re-election here by a 12 pt margin. Most people considered him to be a weak incumbent. I think if you adjust this poll to the 60% or so of registered voters (note: not adults) that actually vote in Presidential elections, I think you would find that all of our candidates polled (Huck, Mitt, Newt) would be leading Obama at this point, with the exception of Palin.