PPP (D) Florida 2012 Presidential Survey
- Barack Obama 46%
- Mitt Romney 44%
- Barack Obama 47%
- Newt Gingrich 42%
- Barack Obama 49%
- Mike Huckabee 44%
- Barack Obama 48%
- Marco Rubio 40%
- Barack Obama 52%
- Sarah Palin 38%
Among Independents
- Barack Obama 52%
- Mitt Romney 28%
- Barack Obama 56%
- Newt Gingrich 22%
- Barack Obama 60%
- Mike Huckabee 24%
- Barack Obama 67%
- Sarah Palin 26%
- Barack Obama 65%
- Marco Rubio 21%
Among Conservatives
- Mike Huckabee 80%
- Barack Obama 11%
- Newt Gingrich 77%
- Barack Obama 8%
- Mitt Romney 78%
- Barack Obama 10%
- Marco Rubio 73%
- Barack Obama 12%
- Sarah Palin 70%
- Barack Obama 17%
Among Moderates
- Barack Obama 62%
- Mitt Romney 28%
- Barack Obama 69%
- Newt Gingrich 26%
- Barack Obama 69%
- Mike Huckabee 25%
- Barack Obama 66%
- Marco Rubio 21%
- Barack Obama 70%
- Sarah Palin 19%
Among Men
- Barack Obama 46%
- Mitt Romney 45%
- Barack Obama 49%
- Newt Gingrich 45%
- Barack Obama 51%
- Mike Huckabee 46%
- Barack Obama 49%
- Marco Rubio 39%
- Barack Obama 52%
- Sarah Palin 40%
Among Women
- Barack Obama 46%
- Mitt Romney 42%
- Barack Obama 45%
- Newt Gingrich 40%
- Barack Obama 47%
- Mike Huckabee 41%
- Barack Obama 48%
- Marco Rubio 40%
- Barack Obama 52%
- Sarah Palin 36%
Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}
- Mitt Romney 43% / 38% {+5%}
- Marco Rubio 43% / 42% {+1%}
- Mike Huckabee 41% / 43% {-2%}
- Newt Gingrich 36% / 47% {-11%}
- Sarah Palin 36% / 57% {-21%}
Among Republicans
- Marco Rubio 68% / 20% {+48%}
- Mike Huckabee 67% / 22% {+45%}
- Newt Gingrich 61% / 24% {+37%}
- Mitt Romney 58% / 26% {+32%}
- Sarah Palin 62% / 34% {+28%}
Among Independents
- Mitt Romney 36% / 51% {-15%}
- Marco Rubio 28% / 52% {-24%}
- Newt Gingrich 24% / 60% {-36%}
- Sarah Palin 30% / 66% {-36%}
- Mike Huckabee 25% / 62% {-37%}
Among Conservatives
- Marco Rubio 74% / 14% {+60%}
- Mike Huckabee 70% / 15% {+55%}
- Newt Gingrich 64% / 15% {+49%}
- Mitt Romney 64% / 21% {+43%}
- Sarah Palin 70% / 29% {+41%}
Among Moderates
- Mitt Romney 31% / 43% {-12%}
- Marco Rubio 27% / 52% {-25%}
- Mike Huckabee 23% / 57% {-34%}
- Newt Gingrich 19% / 62% {-43%}
- Sarah Palin 17% / 71% {-54%}
Among Men
- Marco Rubio 45% / 43% {+2%}
- Mitt Romney 44% / 43% {+1%}
- Mike Huckabee 42% / 50% {-8%}
- Sarah Palin 42% / 54% {-12%}
- Newt Gingrich 39% / 53% {-14%}
Among Women
- Mitt Romney 42% / 32% {+10%}
- Mike Huckabee 40% / 35% {+5%}
- Marco Rubio 40% / 41% {-1%}
- Newt Gingrich 32% / 40% {-8%}
- Sarah Palin 31% / 60% {-29%}
Do you approve or disapprove of President Barack Obama’s job performance?
- Approve 45%
- Disapprove 49%
Do you support or oppose the tax deal President Obama made with Congressional Republicans last week?
Do you think President Obama made too many concessions to Republicans with his tax deal last week, not enough concessions to Republicans, or about the right amount of concessions to Republicans?
- Too many 22%
- Not enough 34%
- About right 39%
Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Charlie Crist’s job performance?
- Approve 50%
- Disapprove 39%
Among Independents
- Approve 70%
- Disapprove 26%
Among Democrats
- Approve 54%
- Disapprove 30%
Among Republicans
- Approve 36%
- Disapprove 54%
If Charlie Crist ran for political office again in the future would you definitely vote for him, consider voting for him, or definitely not vote for him?
- Would definitely vote for him 26%
- Would consider voting for him 36%
- Would definitely not vote for him 35%
Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Rick Scott?
- Favorable 33%
- Unfavorable 43%
Survey of 1,034 Florida voters was conducted December 17-20, 2010. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points. Party ID breakdown: 42% Democrat; 40% Republican; 18% Independent/Other. Political ideology: 43% Moderate; 36% Conservative; 22% Liberal.
December 22nd, 2010 at 9:32 am
Huck showing unusually poor favorables among Indies in this poll. Is it an outlier, or is there something about Florida?
December 22nd, 2010 at 9:46 am
i got A QUESTION on announcements I am guessing most of the 2012 candidates will announce from there ”Hometown base” like Palin would choose Alaska and romney would choose Boston ect ? since obama is the sitting president does he have to make a 2012 announcement? I am so ready for this to start!!
December 22nd, 2010 at 10:03 am
#1 – Maybe it’s something about Huck himself….
December 22nd, 2010 at 10:07 am
I believe that since the election, PPP has been intentionally trying to create a narrative that Obama is in much better position than he is in their polls.
I am sure when this gets closer to the election and they switch to likely voters, they will become much more accurate and GOP numbers will miraculously improve.
Note how much lower their favorability numbers are for Republicans in their polls than other polls.
Marco Rubio just won election here with 49% of the vote and he only scores a barely positive favorable number (43%)?
Note: Most registered voter (note: not polls of Adults or Americans (what Politico used)) polls have shown the GOP doing much better than PPP has consistently shown (CNN, Marist, etc).
December 22nd, 2010 at 10:14 am
SteveT — You have that right. The way the spin the wite-ups is laughable. For a sitting President who won by 2.5% in 2008, to be in the same position, is not good news. Same thing for NC, where he won by .5% and trails Huck by 1. Spinning, Spinning, spinning.
December 22nd, 2010 at 10:24 am
Doug,
Do really really think Huck does as badly among Indies in Florida as Palin? I can’t recall seeing that in any other state. Not even close.
December 22nd, 2010 at 10:24 am
I’m looking forward to seeing which candidate leads the GOP field – and by how much. It looks like they polled Marco – so I wouldn’t be too surprised if he leads.
I expect this topic to draw some attention; so I’m going to ask a question. Recently we’ve seen Obama using Romneycare as his inspiration for Obamacare. The White House has also linked Huckabee to Michelle Obama in fighting childhood obesity. Is that their way of knocking down the two that have consistently polled highest against Obama?
Question #2:
Do you think http://www.primariesforpalin.com/?page_id=2 will help them reach their goal like http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/1/11/132847/518/150/435128 did in Michigan in ’08?
December 22nd, 2010 at 10:26 am
There has been a lot of talk on this site (I don’t know about other sites because I don’t visit any others) that PPP has been “manipulating” their numbers in favor of the Dems. The CV is that because we are so far out from any actual elections taking place (read 14 months) that they feel safe doing so.
If this is true, then one should wonder about all of these GOP Horse Race and Head-to-Head polls. Maybe, around here we all keep getting so hyped up over purposefully mis-leading and manipulated polls.
December 22nd, 2010 at 10:28 am
Steve,
I tread softly with anything that smacks of a conspiracy theory, but I find it odd that the best we can muster here among Indies is losing by 24, where just 7 weeks ago Republicans destroyed Democrats nationwide among Indies, largely because of disapproval of Obama.
Now that you mention it, I recall Matthew Miller complaining about a couple PPP Senate polls that showed unusually liberal independents. They were somehow getting Indy subsamples radically different from other pollsters.
December 22nd, 2010 at 10:28 am
Matt-
(just say, you know.. “those who know you best”…..)
Maybe Florida folks only want 1 over-wight flame throwing talk radio demagogue claiming Florida residency.
December 22nd, 2010 at 10:30 am
Ray,
“then one should wonder about all of these GOP Horse Race….polls. Maybe, around here we all keep getting so hyped up over purposefully mis-leading and manipulated polls.”
If Romney weren’t doing so poorly in them, I’d agree with you.
December 22nd, 2010 at 10:31 am
Matt,
Nice.
December 22nd, 2010 at 10:32 am
Yes, I do realize I said ask “a question” then went on and asked two questions. I keep forgetting there isn’t an edit option here.
December 22nd, 2010 at 10:40 am
PPP is slowly but surely polling more and more like a liberal push poll, per the Daily Kos’s objectives.
Obama’s numbers in Florida among every other pollster were dreadful, leading to Rubio’s landslide and Scott’s win. The idea that Rubio is even in favorables after just winning by 20 points is laughable.
PPP has been exposed as the Kos outfit it is and should be ignored by those interested in a GOP primary.
December 22nd, 2010 at 10:44 am
I see that Huckabee is still the only Republican to be able to beat Obama in NC. Obama has gained on him and overtaken the tie he had with Romney though.
http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2010/12/obama-still-looks-ok-in-nc.html
December 22nd, 2010 at 10:47 am
Poll Watch: PPP (D) Florida Senatorial Survey
December 22nd, 2010 at 10:56 am
Max,
Aren’t the favorables/unfavorables among all voters? Didn’t Rubio win by a “landslide” because of Crist splitting the liberal/moderate vote leaving the Conservatives all for Marco? Did you see the chart that states that Republicans are leaning further to the right in FL?
Florida 2008
11% liberal
28% moderate
61% conservative
Florida 2012
5% liberal (-6 from 08)
25% moderate (-3 from 08)
70% conservative (+9 from 08)
data from http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2010/12/gop-electorate-trending-conservative.html
I’m not too sure if a Democrat polling company would like to admit that. :/
December 22nd, 2010 at 11:03 am
2012 Announcement locations will most of these People make announcements like ”Home Town feel” I take it like Rubio would announce in Florida for example? I think rubio jumps in 2012 that’s why I said this
December 22nd, 2010 at 11:42 am
greg-
Rubio will fly to Cuba to make his announcement.
Pawlenty will make his announcement during the 2nd intermission of a Minnesota Wild game.
Huckabee will make his announcement during next year’s Southern Baptist Convention
Palin will make her announcement as soon as Twitter gets more members than Facebook
Daniels will make his announcement during the Sturgis Bike Rally nest year
Barbour will make his announcement during next year’s annual Secret Society of White Supremacy Revisionists conference
Romney will wait the longest and make his announcement at next year’s Mormon Tabernacle Choir’s Christmas extravaganza, as he descends from the rafters like the Archangel Michael
Gary Johnson will announce at 2am some random morning while waiting in line to buy some brownies at the local Quikie Mart
December 22nd, 2010 at 12:30 pm
Max is right about PPP, but some of this is simply the fact that these are ‘voters’ polls. And some of it is due to the fact that Americans are extremely reluctant to part with a sitting president. It was clear months before the 1980 election that Carter was going to be replaced, but it wasn’t clear in the polls until about a week before the election.
He lost 44 states.
December 22nd, 2010 at 1:08 pm
Ray,
LOL!!!!
December 22nd, 2010 at 2:59 pm
“What would really help Obama’s chances of taking Florida again is if the Republicans nominated Sarah Palin for President. Obama leads her by a stunning 14 point margin, 52-38. The last Democrat to take Florida by such a large margin? Usually you just have to go back to LBJ and Barry Goldwater for those comparisons but for the Sunshine State you actually have to go even further to Harry Truman’s election in 1948. Part of Palin’s problem is hesitance on the part of Republicans to support her- she gets only 63% of her own party’s vote- but her biggest issue is independents where she trails Obama by a whooping 41 points at 67-26. We’ve had a lot of polls show that Palin would be a disaster for the GOP but this might be the starkest evidence of it yet.”
– from PPP’s blog this morning
===
Folks,
Wait till the campaign and debates begin. Mike’s fantastic favorables with Conservatives and Republicans will turn into even more votes. The exact opposite for Palin.
When it comes time to caucus and primary, it’s easier to pull that lever for the one you ALREADY like after they win the debates and campaign on the issues you care about.
I get it that Rombots and Palinites feel their candidates are the very best campaigners and debaters compared to my candidate, Huck.
I just strongly disagree.
December 22nd, 2010 at 6:33 pm
Thanks Matt.
Craig-
FYI: I have been catching up on all my ROS and R4′ reading over the last 30 minutes and have visited nearly a dozen different blogs and your #21 is becoming extremely annoying and bordering on spam, in my honest and humble yet always correct opinion.
December 22nd, 2010 at 7:15 pm
He is extremely irritating Ray. I doubt it if he has a friend in the real world, thus he’s on here 24/7.