As of December 2010, a lot of observers are gleefully writing Mitt Romney’s political obituary. A year from now, however, the narrative may be that of his comeback. Last night I analogized Huckabee ’12 to McCain ’00. But an equally valid comparison may end up being that of Romney ’12 and McCain ’08. And like McCain, who was left for dead at this point in the last presidential cycle, Romney may find yet another lease on life once the Regular Republicans have their say.
The Regular Republicans are the voters that I discussed about three years ago at this time as I was predicting and analyzing McCain’s comeback. These are the folks who, like good Republicans, go out and vote for the candidate whose “turn” it is during each and every presidential election cycle. They are unmoved by the passionate candidate of the base, the insurgent in the center, and pay no heed to all of the candidates who look great “on paper” as far as the nomination is concerned.
During my analysis of the Regular Republicans last time around — and I am paraphrasing myself from memory here — I cited an interview with conservative pundit P.J. O’Rourke, who was also charged with explaining the McCain comeback, and who did so by distinguishing between the conservative base voter and the average Republican voter. O’Rourke evoked a sort of silent majority of Republicans who largely keep to themselves, go about their rather apolitical lives, but vote early, and often, and primarily vote for the candidate who will keep their taxes low, keep their community safe, and otherwise make sure that they are left alone to continue to live their quiet, unassuming lives. Their main concern is that their wife might get mugged on the way to the grocery store, or that their property taxes might go up, or that someone might tell them that they can’t light up on their own front lawn. These are the Republicans who voted Nixon/Ford/Bush/Dole/McCain, and who could easily vote Romney in 2012.
Indeed, today’s Clarus poll shows the stealth power of the Regular Republicans. Even as his campaign is being pronounced DOA, Romney still leads the field among GOP voters with a 19% plurality. Further, out of the Big Four, Romney best fits the description of what Republicans claim they want in 2012, with large majorities claiming to prefer a moderate-conservative, a pragmatist, someone with private sector/business experience, and a current or former governor. If these voters don’t sound like Palin’s throngs, it’s because they are not. These Regular Republicans are too busy with life to show up at a rally, but they will show up at the polling place, like they always do.
Additionally, polls out of two Bush ’04/Obama ’08 swing states today showed Romney and Huckabee faring best against Obama, with Huck doing better in light red North Carolina, and Mitt doing best in purple Florida. These sorts of polls could assist Romney’s comeback as well. Mitt is never going to do particularly well in the red states, for the same reason that John McCain was often shown tied with Barack Obama in states like North Dakota during Campaign 2008. Conservatives miffed that they aren’t able to vote for one of their own are probably responsible for the woes of both McCain and Romney in some red states. But at the end of the day, Republicans may decide that wavering conservatives can be won over with a strong veep selection, while swing voters in Florida (and in Virginia, Colorado, and Ohio) are the keys to the White House. If Romney is the only candidate out of the Big Four who swing voters in purple and light blue states will consider voting for, Mitt’s stock will go way, way up.
I was pretty hard on the Mittster back in 2008, and a lot of that was due to my chips being thrown in with Rudy, of course. But this time around, I am neither a RomneyBot nor a RomneyNot. Still, I can’t shake the feeling that, from what I’ve seen of Romney thus far, he is a better executive than politician. In many ways, Nominee Romney might be a lot like John Kerry, who pretty much made sure that he checked all of his party’s boxes, in a lackluster manner, and made the election entirely a referendum on the incumbent president. That may work if Obama’s approval rating is, say, 42 percent. But the latest polls have Obama moving back into the upper 40s. In an election where Romney is simply running as, “The Competent Alternative to Obama,” as opposed to a truly stand out nominee with novel, innovative ideas about how to turn America around, the GOP will suffer the same sort of enthusiasm gap that the Democrats were on the wrong side of in 2004, and Republicans will basically be at the mercy of Obama’s approval rating, i.e., if it ticks up to 50%, Romney would be done. Of course, it is certainly possible that Romney is hiding his inner Bill Clinton somewhere deep down inside, and if he is, this might be the time to bring it out.
At the end of the day, though, Romney’s potential for a comeback may depend on whether the Big Four continue to dominate the race. And thus far, they have. Perhaps it’s only a matter of time until Thune-mania takes off. Or perhaps not. Time will tell. Until then, the Regular Republicans need someone to vote for, and Romney may be sitting pretty in the McCain ’08 position for 2012.
December 22nd, 2010 at 9:12 pm
P.J. O’Rourke a paleo-conservative? He’s a libertarian conservative, the opposite of a paleo, e.g., Pat Buchanan.
December 22nd, 2010 at 9:13 pm
By rights, those regular Republicans belong to Pawlenty……
December 22nd, 2010 at 9:18 pm
Well, TPaw seems to be back to 3%. Or maybe he was never at 6 as some of you were claiming?
December 22nd, 2010 at 9:26 pm
Matt,
With all due respect, I don’t think you can declare who those “Regular Republicans” belong to. If Dave’s ascertion is correct that “Regular Republicans” like “the next in line” and if we take the Clarus poll from today just a wee bit seriously then I think you have to say those “Regular Republicans” will go for Romney this time around. I would be totally okay with Romney/Pawlenty, though. My dream ticket would be Romney/Daniels but I think too many Huckaloons would look at that ticket and see forced abortions in high schools across America.
As an aside- remind to never again parenthesise anything on here. Because once I do it once I have to keep on doing it throughout my comments and when you repeat the same word or word grouping 4 or 5 times in 1 paragraph the “Shift” “Parenthesis” buttons get really old.
December 22nd, 2010 at 9:40 pm
Ray,
“With all due respect, I don’t think you can declare who those “Regular Republicans” belong to.”
That was tongue in cheek.
But 19% is pretty dang anemic for Next In Line®
If he were really there heir apparent, I would think the legions of Regular Republicans would have noticed, and they surely make up more than 19%.
December 22nd, 2010 at 9:40 pm
*the* heir apparent
December 22nd, 2010 at 9:41 pm
I am not sure why anyone is writing about a Romney comeback. He is tied or ahead nationally and has a huge lead in New Hampshire.
Our last nominee had far worse problem’s with his candidacy then the obstacles Romney has.
McCain was despised by talk radio, trashed by many conservative groups such as the Club For Growth, had been the lead author of an immigration bill during the GOP primary that was rejected by something like 80% of Republicans and somehow survived.
Compare that to what many people believe is Romney’s biggest obstacle his health plan. When it was enacted it even had the support of many conservative groups – The Heritage Foundation, positive comments were made from the American Enterprise Institute, The Club For Growth, positive write ups in the National Review (which eventually endorsed him), etc
If you even look at the issue set that the voters care about, most play to his strength. The economy is the number one issue at about 50%, second is cutting government spending (about 25%)(Romney’s tenure saw gov’t spending growth being held below the inflation rate).
Heath Care only checks in at about 9%. It may be a little higher in the GOP Primary, but it will hardly be the top issue and Romney will have much time to explain his approach to Heath Reform with a new plan in 2011.
If he drops to about where McCain was in early fall 2007 (about 10% nationally and losing his lead in New Hampshire), then it might be time for this post.
Anyone who is writing off Romney at this point, can’t have a very strong understanding of GOP Presidential Primary history.
December 22nd, 2010 at 9:42 pm
IG,
“Well, TPaw seems to be back to 3%. Or maybe he was never at 6 as some of you were claiming?”
Indeed. It looks like Romney and TPaw are both at about half of what they once were.
Of course, for Tim, that just means margin of error, and not a catastrophic erosion of support.
December 22nd, 2010 at 9:43 pm
I don’t believe McCain bottomed out until the Summer of ’07. I remember at one of the debates all the other candidates sucking up to him, anticipating his withdrawal (and endorsement).
December 22nd, 2010 at 9:47 pm
Here is what I am talking about…
Bloomberg National Poll conducted by Selzer & Company. Dec. 4-7, 2010. N=1,000 adults nationwide. Margin of error ± 3.1.
“Which of the following do you see as the most important issue facing the country right now? Unemployment and jobs. The federal deficit and government spending. Health care. The war in Afghanistan. Immigration.” Options rotated %
Unemployment and jobs 50%
Federal deficit and spending 25%
Health care 9%
War in Afghanistan 7%
Immigration 5%
December 22nd, 2010 at 9:56 pm
Steve,
Romney’s troubles on health care are not limited to those who cite it as there #1 issue. I care about ALL those issues that poll listed, as I’m sure you do too. So just because someone lists jobs #1 doesn’t mean they are completely indifferent to health care.
Even beyond that, RomneyCare undermines Mitt’s cred as Mr. FiCon. It would be akin to discovering that John McCain was once George McGovern’s foreign policy advisor.
December 22nd, 2010 at 10:01 pm
SteveT – Excellent points at #7 & 10.
A lot of the erosion is Romney’s numbers comes from the addition of other candidtes, notably Gingrich. Coupled with Romney observing a stealth strategy this year, you are going to get somewhat lower numbers. The polls cited are all from PP and many have dubious sampling sizes and very high MOE’s, and yet were are taking this all in as certian death. Yet, Romney still provides the President with stiff competition.
December 22nd, 2010 at 10:06 pm
Damn the internet and its inability to properly gauge sarcasm @ #5
December 22nd, 2010 at 10:16 pm
Matt – you are correct that people do still consider those other issues to be important. However voters do prioritize – If they are most concerned about the Economy they may see Romney as the better choice. They may also believe that he cut a bad deal in Massachusettes with Health Care. However, they may be willing to look past that.
For instance, in the 2008 election many voters thought the Iraq war was the most important issue. They may have voted for McCain even though they did not like what he tried to do on Immigration. They may also have been convinced that McCain had learned his lesson on the issue and would be moving in another direction.
If Romney does in fact hold on to his lead in New Hampshire and win the state the race will most likely narrow to between him and one other, possibly two other candidates.
Romney would then be compared to those few candidates on all the issues, including personal ones, such as perceived electability, etc.
True that RomneyCare may raise a question mark to Mitt’s fiscon credentials – however this will be weighed during the course of a campaign.
Mitt will be able to make the case on his entire record, not just his health plan. Voters may be persuaded by the fact that groups like the Club For Growth write generally positive reports about him and conservative magazine’s like National Review endorsed him in 2008 after he had enacted his health plan.
Plus they may learn about other things he did in the health plan that they don’t know about – such as free market ideas on healthcare such as expanding HSA’s, tax deductability of health plans, and dropping individual health plan coverage requirements (more consumer choice, less health plan regulation).
December 22nd, 2010 at 10:17 pm
Ray,
Sorry. My sarcasm radar is usually pretty well calibrated. Must be the signal strength here.
December 22nd, 2010 at 10:23 pm
One more point on health care, Mitt will have a pro-free market and pro-consumer plan in 2011 that will build off of his whole record on healthcare (not just what healthcare is in Massachussettes).
It will build on his 2007 Presidential Campaign’s health plan, and yes will take several of the conservative ideas that Romney pushed in his health plan in Massachussettes that most people do not know about.
They can then evaluate his history and his proposals going forward and decide if they can trust him enough on this issue to vote for him.
December 22nd, 2010 at 10:24 pm
Doug,
One consistency that has emerged from numerous polls this year from myriad pollsters is that Romney is (pre-campaign) a stronger general election candidate than primary candidate. Clearly, he and Huck have been the class of the field head to head against Obama, but Romney’s favorables among Republicans and conservatives have been consistently much worse than Huck’s or Palin’s.
The question has been asked numerous times what this all means. I think it means that plenty of Republicans find Romney acceptable enough as an alternative to Obama, but they aren’t all that enthused about him, and are hoping/looking for someone “better.” It’s a big part of why Gingrich took so much out of his hide, and despite his own recent slide, Romney hasn’t recovered. To some extent this is true of all the candidates, as few “real” party have already wedded themselves to a candidate, but it seems more extensive with Romney.
December 22nd, 2010 at 10:26 pm
Steve,
If Romney’s health care plan next year looks radically different than MassCare, might many people (fairly or not) perceive that as an admission of failure of his first try at reform, or worse, a flip-flop?
December 22nd, 2010 at 10:38 pm
Matt – go look up Romney’s 2007 Presidential Health plan from last time – it will build off of that.
It will not be surprisingly different from what Romney has pushed for during his whole record on health care –
for Med Malpractice reform (Romney ran on this as early as 1994),
For a more favorable tax status for health plans (fought for full tax deductability in Mass, will probably have a federal refundable tax credit),
for dropping health plan coverage requirements (dropped many of these in Mass such as mandated invitro-fertilization, more consumer choice, less regulation).
For expanding Health and Medical Savings accounts (HSAs expanded in Mass)
All of the above have no relation to Obamacare. Mitt has also never supported a federal mandate for insurance.
I think it will become clear that Mitt has been much more free market on health care then the hype we have heard.
Once you get past the individual mandate on healthcare the approaches don’t look very similar.
December 22nd, 2010 at 10:42 pm
The Heritage Foundation did not get behind Romney on Healthcare because they thought they were enacting a top heavy government regulated Obama type health plan.
They thought they were advancing a pro-free market, pro-consumer driven plan that strengthend the private insurance market.
December 22nd, 2010 at 11:02 pm
I don’t doubt that, during a general election debate on the issue of health care with Obama, Romney will be able to point out stark differences between the two on health care. But what Romney will really be doing is proposing to reform ObamaCare, and not to repeal it. I think the GOP has basically one shot to do so, and that’s in 2013-2014, before most of the goodies kick in. I think the chances that ObamaCare will be repealed outright are slim. But even if that’s true, the GOP base is going to want a candidate who will at least give repeal a shot. That’s where Romney runs into trouble. If he runs as the “reform ObamaCare” candidate during the primaries, all of the other candidates will beat him over the head with such a move. And if he promises repeal, then he will be put in the position of arguing against elements of RomneyCare, such as requiring insurers to cover folks with pre-existing conditions. It’s hard to see how he wins on this issue during the primaries. He may win the nomination in SPITE of this issue, but not because of it. Romney’s saving grace may end up being an equally lackluster second tier of candidates, and the fact that all of those McCain ’08 voters will absolutely cast ballots for Mitt if he’s the only one who can win both the nomination and a state like Florida in the general.
December 22nd, 2010 at 11:23 pm
Guaranteed issue (ie dropping pre-existing condition exclusions) was enacted in Massachussettes in 1996 and has nothing to do with RomneyCare.
http://www.americanhealthsolution.org/assets/Reform-Resources/Individual-Market/MillimanIndivMarket.pdf
Go to Page 15 of this link for that information.
Romney could easily propose a waiting period (say 6 months or so) for people signing up with pre-existing conditions, that would largely get rid of the problem of people signing up as they get sick.
This would be well in line with what Romney has fought for in the past (scaling back individual coverage requirements on healthcare).
It also probably the only way that the damage can be minimized with guaranteed issue (it will not be overturned).
This is one of the problem’s that Romney does have – he assumed the governship of the state that has the most expensive heathcare in the US and is also very highly regulated. All of this was before he did anything with Healthcare.
It is very easy for people to assign him blame for things that are part of the Mass healthcare system that he had nothing what so ever to do with.
December 22nd, 2010 at 11:40 pm
“Romney’s troubles on health care are not limited to those who cite it as there #1 issue.”
Indeed. Conservative Home had a YouGov poll of 1000 conservatives (a panel — take it for what it’s worth) on which 66% said RomneyCare would be “a big problem” for him.
http://conhomeusa.typepad.com/survey/2010/12/conservatives-poll-romney.html
There was good news for Romney in the poll too, especially on managerial competence. But RomneyCare is going to hurt him. And I don’t think he can move away from it.
His best hope is that the issue changes. That’s what saved McCain: he made his comeback when he managed to change the subject from immigration to the Surge.
December 22nd, 2010 at 11:48 pm
To win the nomination, Romney just needs to win New Hampshire and appear as a more Presidential alternative than the remaining one or two candidates. He does not need or is he going to win the “purest candidate ward.”
John McCain succeeded in doing this. Heck even Bob Dole succeeded in doing this. Romney is likely to have more money and organization than his opponents and that can play a huge role when the race narrows.
December 23rd, 2010 at 12:13 am
Steve T,
Mitt needs to win Nevada as well, but there is every indication he will. Those 2 states will make him a survivor with campaign viability going into SuperTuesday, or whatever winds up falling between South Carolina and SuperTuesday.
My guess is that what falls between SC and ST is Florida, and maybe Michigan to boot. If that happens, Mitt probably gets the nomination.
December 23rd, 2010 at 12:22 am
How many times do we have to hear this BS about Republicans choosing the “next in line” or person whose “turn” it is?
- HW Bush won because he was Reagan’s VP, not because he came in second in 1980
- Pat Buchanan made a respectable showing in ’92. He was the most recent runner-up. Why wasn’t it “his turn” in ’96? And if we’re excluding people who ran against incumbents, then it wasn’t Reagan’s turn in ’80, so you can’t count that, either.
- George W. Bush was “next in line” how exactly? How flippin’ broad are we going to make this criteria to stuff W. into it?
- McCain barely won. A five-percent swing in New Hampshire or South Carolina would have changed the entire game. Acting like McCain’s win was inevitable is history being rewritten under our noses.
“For every phenomenon, there is an explanation that is simple, elegant, and false.” – Mencken
Just thought I’d pop in to point that out.
December 23rd, 2010 at 12:24 am
In fact, a majority of pre-Super Tuesday voters voted against McCain. 2/3 of them, in fact. How on Earth does that fit the idea that Republicans heart the next-in-line?
December 23rd, 2010 at 12:42 am
Is “Somone You Know” Alex Knepper?
December 23rd, 2010 at 6:35 am
MITTENS NEVER LEFT!
Agree though that as sure as night follows day (or is it vice versa) Mitt will be written off next summer just as McCain was and people will look to Sarah, Huck, Jeb, Jindal, GDP, Marco etc (as they did with Fred), but just as surely he will come back with a fighting third in Iow, win NH, Michigan and Nevada, win or run second in SC, win in Florida then sweep TT.
Yes he will be the McCain of 2012!!!!!
December 23rd, 2010 at 6:37 am
SYK if that’s you AK it’s me Heath from the 2008 campaign! I remember you were kicked out of the convention for daring to question Sarah and you ended up being 100% right!
December 23rd, 2010 at 6:40 am
The election will be about the ECONOMY (stupid), not Health Care! It’s widely accepted as fact that if the primary season was 3/4 months later Romney wins in a cake walk (and probably wins the GE too).
December 23rd, 2010 at 8:56 am
Rick Scott’s endorsement in Florida is going to be very important. Anyone know which candidate he favors?
Mitt is in much the same position as Dole was in 96. He needs to consolidate the establishment but still woo the base. Mitt needs to propose something dramatic like a 15% across the board tax cut on top of the Bush tax cuts and make them permanent with additional deeper cuts to the job creating brackets. Mitt needs to run as “America’s CEO” or the first “MBA President” and preach the prosperity gospel to attract values voters.
December 23rd, 2010 at 11:56 am
How did Dole work out?
December 23rd, 2010 at 1:16 pm
Craig-
About as well as McCain in 2008, and Kerry in 2004.
December 23rd, 2010 at 1:25 pm
MBA President? The MBA degree is clearly overrated if it is supposed to be a qualification.
December 23rd, 2010 at 3:08 pm
Lol re Scott Pruce but I’ll answer you question – anybody but Huckabee!
I’d love Scott to suddenly become popular and Crist Huckabee a la 08!
December 23rd, 2010 at 3:12 pm
Excellent post, DaveG.
Mitt’s stock with Republican activists isn’t high right now so that’s why he’s “down” at the moment. But the campaign will make all the difference and if he campaigns better in 2011 than he did in 2007, I think he wins.
December 23rd, 2010 at 4:40 pm
Dave,
Romney lists 63 creative ideas to solve the nations problems at the end of his book. That compares with, maybe, 1 or 2 ideas from anybody else. You are right on in your analysis and those same Republican voters you mention are going to get ample helpings of real ideas and real solutions over the next 12 months. And, with gas going to $ 3 .00 / gallon, interest rates jacking up to encourage additional borrowing of T- bills and inflation taking off as a result, with car loans and mortgage rates soaring, Obama will be lucky to get to 42 %
CraigS
December 23rd, 2010 at 8:54 pm
Haha, it is very hard to accept perhaps but the most logical idea is that the dems are actually pushing for romney. Of course why would they state the obvious. moderate mccain lost last time how much more a liberal romney (job exporter) this time. hahaha…
Obama 2012
December 23rd, 2010 at 10:56 pm
WHAT????? Dems pushing for Romney? What cave have you been hiding in. They’ve been attempting to pronounce him dead already. Job exporter? What a complete falsehood. Mitt Romney has saved Americans hundreds of thousands of jobs. Just Staples and Dominoes alone is over 100,000 jobs. comparatively, very few went over seas. AND, if you would listen to his speeches you would see that HE IS THE ONE wanting to renegotiate trade agreements to make them fair to the American worker. Your last statement is either completely ignorant of facts, or outright lies. You can spout that garbage whereever you came from, but around here there are plenty of people with facts to REFUDIATE dishonesty/stupidity.
December 29th, 2010 at 6:03 pm
It’s all Romney this cycle. No other talent out there. Not yet, anyways.