In 2008 Barack Obama and his merry band of Hope’n'changers painted the electoral map blue in places that haven’t been blue for decades. States that shifted from voting for Bush in 2004 into the Democrat column in 2008 include Nevada, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, New Mexico, Florida, Ohio, North Carolina and Virginia.
The job for Republicans in 2012 is to figure out how we can get a better map so we can retire Obama and put one of our own back into the White House. It’s easier said than done. Despite Obama’s current troubles – Americans don’t often kick sitting presidents to the curb. In addition, Obama’s coalition of younger voters and minorities will make it tough to win certain states that have been reliably if not overwhelmingly red in recent elections.
One bright spot for the good guys is that the electoral map will soon be updated based on the latest census data. The number of electoral votes in each state will be adjusted based on population shifts. Luckily for us, much of the population growth over the past decade has been in the Sunbelt.
A look at some of the changes:
Safe Democratic States (Democratic 2000, 2004, 2008)
(Net loss of 6 electoral votes)
Safe Republican States (Republican 2000, 2004, 2008)
(Net gain of 6 electoral votes)
Swing States
(No net change)
So how do we win? Well, I am of the opinion that Indiana and North Carolina are going to come back our way in any election where the popular vote is close. George Bush carried these states by 20 and 12 points, respectively. Indiana recently elected Dan Coats to the senate (a far from ideal candidate) by landslide margins.
The Republicans dominate both houses of the state legislature in Indiana and the bottom line is that McCain ran an awful campaign in 2008 and didn’t match Obama’s organization in the state – or even come close. It cost the GOP Indiana’s electoral votes. A similar story happened in North Carolina. Obama energized and maximized the black vote and worked on door-to-door get out the vote while McCain ran a few television commercials. The GOP was able to hold onto the “cursed” Burr senate seat two weeks ago – by 12 points and take control of the state legislature for the first time since the 1800′s. Both Indiana and North Carolina were lost by a point or less. Both of these states will be on the top of the list for a GOP comeback and should return to the fold without a problem as long as the GOP puts forth some effort, ground game and money.
Next up will be Nevada and Colorado. I’m feeling a lot less bullish about these two states. Even in the wave year of 2010 – both Nevada and Colorado drastically underperformed for the GOP. The Hispanic vote is increasing and it’s making it tougher and tougher for the GOP to hold on. Of course the party ought to fight tooth and nail for these two states – but it may turn out to be an uphill battle.
Virginia is also tougher than it used to be. The ballooning federal government has drawn LOTS of liberal young people into Northern Virginia. As Bob McDonnell showed in 2009, it’s certainly not impossible for the GOP to still do well here, but Obama is in a unique position to draw out rapidly multiplying NoVa liberals while at the same time energizing the black vote more than anyone else ever could. Of course this state will be highly contested, but the Republicans need to work on a Plan B as higher presidential turnout is only going to hurt us here.
So where do we go from here? For my money the ripe spot for the party is the Upper Midwest. Ohio was one of the first places in the country to rapidly defect from Team Blue starting with the Tea Party Town Hall Crashing of 2009. Obama’s numbers in Ohio fell under water in the summer of 2009. The Buckeye State lurched rapidly to the right in 2010 and will be a top pickup opportunity for Republicans in 2012. A poll from Public Policy Polling a few months ago showed George Bush with higher favorables than Obama by a margin of 50-42. That’s part of the reason the Democrat campaign to tie Rob Portman to the Bush Administration was what the teenagers call “epic fail.”
Florida is also going to be key. Republicans made major gains in the state this year, and considering the fact that Obama won the national popular vote by seven points, his meager 51-48 win in Florida was far from impressive. In a closer national contest, the GOP will likely carry Florida. This is especially true since elderly whites are very much turned off by Democrats over the health care fiasco and general foray into liberalism.
I would also keep a close eye on Iowa. George Bush was able to carry this state in 2004, and with evangelical help the GOP can do it again. Wisconsin was very very close in ’04 as well. John Kerry won the state by 11k votes, or just 0.3 percent. Wisconsin lurched rapidly rightward in 2010 as well. In my opinion the Republicans should focus like crazy on these two states. Independents now lean to the right and the minority vote here is virtually nil. This is very fertile ground, so long as the GOP doesn’t get bogged down on debates over Free Trade agreements.
Here is my (very plausible) list of states that will get us to 269 electoral votes based on new population estimates:
MT – 3
ID – 4
UT – 6
AZ – 11
WY – 3
ND – 3
SD – 3
NE – 5
KS – 6
OK – 7
TX – 38
WI – 10
IA – 6
MO – 10
AR – 6
LA – 8
MS – 6
AL – 9
GA – 16
FL – 29
SC – 9
NC – 15
TN – 11
KY – 8
IN – 11
OH – 18
WV – 5
AK – 3
——–
269
And 269 is all we’re going to need, so long as the GOP can hold the House. 269 electoral votes sends the vote to the House of Representatives for a “one vote per state” election. Republicans will win such a battle with the new congress arriving in January.
After 269, the battle gets a little more uphill. I’m skeptical that Republicans will be able to put Pennsylvania into the red column unless they are already winning the popular vote by about 5 points. In that case, we’ll probably already have won Virginia, and some of the Hispanic-heavy lower Mountain West.
But one bright spot could be New Hampshire. Bush barely lost NH in 2004, with John Kerry essentially living next door and W carried New Hampshire in 2000. On Election Night this month, the Republicans scored a massive shift in the state legislature, claiming more seats than at any time since the state was painted crimson in the 1980′s. Republicans reclaimed both congressional seats, Kelly Ayotte defeated Paul Hodes in a landslide and a supposedly popular moderate Democrat governor barely held on. If the Republicans could add New Hampshire to the list of red states that will take the total to 273.
It’s not going to be an easy task – but I think what I’ve outlined is a plausible path to victory.
Thoughts?
