Per Dave’s “put up or shut up” challenge, here are my predictions for tomorrow.
House of Representatives: I am predicting a 67-72 seat pickup for the GOP in the House tomorrow night, with the caveat being that I feel that the final result may actually be higher than the top number I have listed here. A 15 point GOP advantage on the generic ballot is simply unprecedented, so we are in truly unchartered territory here. I don’t think that anyone has ever really thought about what a 15 point Republican lead would result in. We’ll find out soon enough.
United States Senate: My final prediction is a nine seat GOP pickup in the Senate, which will result in a temporary 50/50 tie. Like Dave, I believe that JoMo will caucus with the GOP this time around as he sports negative approval ratings among Democrats and Independents, but enjoys a net positive approval among Republicans. I have this viseceral feeling that Raese defeats Manchin tomorrow. But the numbers are the numbers, and they say that Manchin eeks it out tomorrow night, so I am chickening out on predicting an outright GOP takeover.
The thing is, with a 15 point lead in the generic ballot, how can the GOP not flip the Senate as well? There is also the fact that the Senate has always flipped along with the House in modern elections. My gut tells me that the Republicans flip both houses tomorrow. My head tells me they do not.
On a personal note… Being a Minnesotan, it may surprise some people that the race which means the most to me personally is the Florida U.S. Senate race. It has been quite a while since I have felt as invested in a Republican candidate as I have felt with Marco Rubio. You may think I am crazy for thinking so far ahead, but I really believe that Marco Rubio is destined to become not only a Republican nominee, but President of the United States. I don’t know when it will come to pass, but Marco Rubio will be President someday. So if I start referring to him as “46″, you are all “in” on my reasons for doing so.
October 28th, 2011 at 9:45 pm
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March 29th, 2012 at 9:28 am
You must be kidding, or love shooting your foot. New research by professors Emmanual Saez and Thomas Pikkety show that the average adjusted gross income of the bottom 90 percent was $29,840 in 2010 — down $127 from 2009 and down $4,842 from 2000 — and just slightly higher than it was forty-six years ago in 1966 (all figures adjusted for inflation). n nRepublican Social Darwinists are determined that the Bush tax cuts of 2001 and 2003 be made permanent. Those cuts saved the richest 1 percent of taxpayers (roughly 1.4 million people) more money on their taxes last year than the rest of America’s 141 million taxpayers received in total income. n n