I’m not sure if a Pawlenty boomlet could truly be called a “comeback” given that the Minnesota governor never actually gained traction the first time around, but it’s certainly plausible that T-Paw could end up being the last man standing in a complicated presidential field, made all the more convoluted by the presence of the, er, T-Pawty.  It recently occurred to me when analyzing the field’s strengths and weaknesses that Pawlenty is probably the only candidate in the prospective motley crew of candidates that absolutely no one would veto.  While winning the nomination for that reason wouldn’t exactly be a ringing endorsement by primary voters, it’s probably better to have a milquetoast Pawlenty who offends no one in the coalition as opposed to a candidate who excites some but drives others bonkers.  Hopefully Republicans won’t have to make that choice, but in the event that they do, Pawlenty will be waiting.

So how would T-Paw go from zero to hero?  Basically, all of the other candidates would have to flame out over the course of 2011, leaving Pawlenty to pick up the pieces in Iowa and New Hampshire in early 2012.  Pawlenty is a natural for both states, given that Minnesota sits adjacent to Iowa, given that Iowa is dominated by Pawlenty’s fellow evangelicals, and given that New Hampshire has an affinity for Northern Reagan Democrat types in the mold of Pat Buchanan.  Pawlenty could win both, but right now would win neither, largely because pretty much every wing of the party presently prefers multiple other candidates to Pawlenty.  Again, Pawlenty’s claim to fame is that he has the potential to be the last man standing if everyone else self-destructs during the primary season.

But how could the entire GOP field crash and burn?  Well, it happened in 2008, didn’t it?  McCain, after all, was left for dead as late as Fall of 2007, but only came back because the party couldn’t agree on any of the other candidates, all for different reasons.  The same thing could plausibly happen this time around, only on a much grander scale.  The chain of events that lead to a Pawlenty nod would probably go something like this.

First, the Big Four would end up disappointing the broader primary electorate.  Romney would collapse over RomneyCare, Huckabee would continue to be typecast as a candidate only for evangelicals and Southerners, Palin would either refrain from running or would run and be eviscerated during the debates, and Newt’s new culture warrior schtick would seem too cute by half.  In search of a new candidate, voters would begin to search the deeper bench, only to fail to find a consensus nominee.  Under this scenario, Chris Christie and Paul Ryan stay out of the race, as both would likely bring to the table the ideas and the gusto to win over the electorate.  Jindal also decides not to run, and to instead focus on 2011, and Jeb stays out as well because of his surname.  Either Haley Barbour OR Mitch Daniels gets in.  If it’s Haley, the lobbyist creds and the Foghorn Leghorn schtick do him in (he would, after all, have to face the first African-American president).  If it’s Daniels, under this scenario, the Indiana governor brings to the table a series of superb ideas and a killer list of accomplishments, none of which the primary electorate will even consider due to Daniels’ CPA style, which lacks the charisma and showmanship required of modern politicians.  Even less visible than Daniels is John Thune, whose nickname becomes “John Who?”  Mike Pence tries his hand at a run and does quite well amongst conservative activists due to his stellar communication skills, but the fact that he’s only a congressman is just a bridge too far for most voters.  Meanwhile, John Bolton, Gary Johnson, and Rick Santorum are dismissed as niche candidates.

That leaves Tim Pawlenty as the only candidate in the field acceptable to everyone in the party.  His status as a non-threatening economic conservative, a non-abrasive cultural conservative, and a governor with actual accomplishments but who hails from outside the South would make Pawlenty a nice, safe, dull choice for a party that can’t seem to find anyone else to appeal to its ideologically-diverse electorate as well as to Independents, without whom President Obama cannot be beaten.  To be sure, it’s still far more likely that someone other than Pawlenty becomes the nominee.  Either Romney will bludgeon his way to the nomination, or Daniels will use 2011 to consolidate the establishment behind him, or Palin will go all in and use the power of the Tea Party to storm the palace, or Chris Christie will take advantage of a perfect storm that’s calling his name.  But in the event that none of those things happen, the GOP will still need a nominee.  And that could allow Pawlenty, like Carter in ’76, to emerge from the governor’s mansion of a mid-sized state and wrest the nomination from a myriad of party superstars.