I have received a little criticism from my fellow Rombots for pointing out this obvious reality, so let me back it up with numbers (via First Read):
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg
*** The GOP’s weak 2012 front-runner: Over the past year, the political world has operated under the assumption that Mitt Romney is the front-runner for the GOP presidential nomination in 2012. After all, he has a wide fundraising network and a deep roster of potential campaign talent. What’s more, Republicans almost always nominate their runner-up from the previous cycle (though both Mike Huckabee and Sarah Palin might also claim that status). But if Romney is the front-runner, he’s starting out at a much weaker position than Bob Dole or John McCain ever did at this point in the ’96 and ’08 cycles. According to our latest NBC/WSJ poll, Romney’s national fav/unfav is upside down at 21%-30%, compared with Dole’s net-positive 38%-25% in Sept. ’94 and McCain’s 40%-16% in June ’06. Intensity is a problem, too, for Romney. Just 6% view him VERY positively, versus 14% for Dole in ’94 and 11% for McCain in ’06.
*** Romney’s weak GOP support: And then there are Republicans’ views of Romney. His fav/unfav among GOPers and conservatives is, respectively, 38%-17% and 30%-19%. For Dole in ’94, it was 65%-9% and 58%-14%. And for McCain in ’06, it was 47%-16% and 40%-17%. So Romney right now doesn’t appear to be exciting conservatives, Republicans, or the public at large. And it’s not like he’s an unknown political entity after 2008. What has to especially concern Team Romney is that he’s starting — among Republicans and conservatives — at a weaker position than McCain was in ’06, and the ’06 version of McCain was hardly adored by the right. Bottom line: While you can’t write off Romney, the GOP’s 2012 field has the potential to be wider open than Team Romney is hoping.
This is why I don’t cry into my pillow at night. I am simply not obsessed with Romney. I like him. I think he would make a great president. I will vote for him. But I don’t participate in psychopathic, cult-like followings of candidates.
By the way, it is really quite relieving when you don’t let all of your hopes and dreams fall an individual that you have probably never even met in your life.
October 12th, 2010 at 7:39 pm
Ha ha ha ha ha!
Very clever Pablito! John McCain was not leading in the polls like Mitt is. Does Mitt have lower unfavorables, sure, but consider the difference in the fields of previous front runners. “Cult like following”?? It’s very difficult to NOT be impressed with someone who has a much greater
PROVEN track record of success than any other candidate
October 13th, 2010 at 11:49 am
I have met him several times (sat next to him in church on several occasions). He’s qualified. I Like him personally and professionally. I will vote for him. And unlike some others, I’ll vote for whomever wins the republican nomination, win or lose. No sour grapes here.
November 6th, 2010 at 1:00 am
I disagree. I think he is at least 50/50 to get the nomination. Go Mitt! Love that guy.
November 12th, 2010 at 10:08 pm
I’ve never put any stock in favorability ratings. Last poll I saw, Mitt was up by 5% over Obama, and I think Mitt would do well in the battleground states, vs only doing well in republican strongholds.
May 20th, 2012 at 5:48 pm
Great information