Gallup Survey on Strength of United States’ National Defense

Survey of 1,025 adults was conducted Feb. 1-3, 2010. The margin of error is ±4 percentage points.

Gallup Survey on Americans’ Perceptions of Foreign Nations

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Look who stopped by the CPAC bloggers lounge…

Grainy cell phone picture - but still fun.

I received this observation from a friend in attendance who is not prone to hyperbole:

I have to tell you that the back-to-back surprise appearances of Dick Cheney and Scott Brown plus the Romney speech had the crowd (mostly young,folks between 20 and 30) at a fever pitch by mid-afternoon. But the true story here is the depth of grass roots level preparation, employing technology and methodical organizing, that is combined with a sense of momentum and purpose. The Democrats may not yet know what is going to hit them……

Indeed… Especially if the insane move to restart the health care takeover comes to fruition.

Hello Race42012 readers.  This is Nick R Brown, Founder and Director of thelobbyist.net.  We’ve been doing some cross posting with Race42012 this weekend at CPAC.  We’ve been really happy to scratch each others backs in this way and it has been really beneficial to have the help to extend our coverage for both sites.

I just wanted to let Race readers know that I’m running a live blog of various speakers and panels over at TL today.  You can find it at this link.

Thanks again to Race42012 for working with us and letting us work with them. I hope you enjoy all our coverage of CPAC from the hard working folks at both sites.

Best,

Nick R. Brown
@hownowbrowncow
@thelobbyist

UT-Austin Texas Statewide Survey on Evolution (Flintstones Edition)

Please tell us whether you agree or disagree with the following statement: “The earliest humans lived at the same time as the dinosaurs.”

• Agree 30%
• Disagree 41%

Please tell us whether you agree or disagree with the following statement: “Human beings, as we know them today, developed from earlier species of animals.”

• Agree 35%
• Disagree 51%

Which of the following statements comes closest to your views on the origin and development of human beings?

• God created human beings pretty much in their present form about 10,000 years ago. 38%
• Human beings have developed over millions of years from less advanced forms of life, but God guided the process. 38%
• Human beings have developed over millions of years from less advanced forms of life, and God had no part in the process. 12%

Which of the following statements comes closest to your views on the origin and development of life on earth? Life on earth has. . .

• Existed in its present form since the beginning of time 22%
• Evolved over time, entirely through “natural selection,” but with a guiding hand from God 53%
• Evolved over time, entirely through “natural selection,” with no guidance from God 15%

Survey of 800 registered voters was conducted February 1-7, 2010. The margin of error is +/- 3.46 percentage points.

Inside the numbers:

The questions were devised by David Prindle, a University of Texas government professor who authored a book called Stephen Jay Gould and the Politics of Evolution, about the late evolutionary biologist. “The end in mind … is to establish the relationships, not just to get raw public opinion,” he says. “We can do some fancy statistical stuff. … Is it religion driving politics or is politics driving religion? My hypothesis is that religious views drive politics.”

Democrats (28 percent) are less likely than Republicans (47 percent) to think that humans have always existed in their present form and more likely (21 percent to 7 percent) to think humans have developed over millions of years without God’s guidance. About the same percentages of Democrats and Republicans (40 and 36 percent, respectively) believe that evolution took place over time with God’s guidance. Democrat Bill White’s voters were the most likely to believe in evolution without a divine hand (33 percent); on the Republican side, by comparison, only 6 percent of Rick Perry’s supporters were in that category.

Has life on earth always existed in its present form? Republicans are more likely to agree (29 percent) than Democrats (16 percent). They’re less likely to believe that life evolved over time with no guidance from God (8 percent to 24 percent). Democrats are slightly less inclined to believe in evolution with a “guiding hand from God” (50 percent to 55 percent).

Republicans are less likely to believe that humans developed from earlier species of animals; 26 percent agree, while 60 percent disagree. Among Democrats in the survey, 46 percent agree that humans evolved from earlier species; 42 percent disagree. Perry’s voters were most hostile to this premise — 67 percent disagree.

About the same numbers of Democrats and Republicans — 43 percent — disagree with the idea that dinosaurs and humans lived on the planet at the same time. Republicans were slightly more likely to agree with the idea (31 percent to 27 percent). Perry had more voters in each group on the GOP side, but Kay Bailey Hutchison had the largest share of voters who believe in that coexistence.

Prindle says the results recall a line from comedian Lewis Black. “He did a standup routine a few years back in which he said that a significant proportion of the American people think that the ‘The Flintstones’ is a documentary,” Prindle says. “Turns out he was right. Thirty percent of Texans agree that humans and dinosaurs lived on the earth at the same time.”

Just had a nice long talk with Tim  Phillips, President of  Americans for Prosperity - and we should definitely watch his organization starting mid-March.

I’m not allowed to publish the details of what they are planning - but there will be a massive effort to expose overregulation by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). Trust me, this will be HUGE. People will be falling  off their chairs laughing at the stunts they have in the works  - and I am expecting this to go viral in a big way.

This will be much bigger and more effective than their  successful “Hot Air” baloon tour for cap-and-trade.

Up and running here at the bloggers lounge. Tim Pawlenty and Rep. Steve King already spoke and did well.

Michale Williams of Texas is onstage now – and I expect him to be the “rising star” moment of the day – as was Rubio yesterday.

Quinnipiac NYC Terrorist Trials Survey

As you may know the Obama administration is considering moving the trials of suspected 9/11 terrorists out of Lower Manhattan. Do you think the trials of the suspected 9/11 terrorists should be moved out of Lower Manhattan or stay in Lower Manhattan?

• Moved out of Lower Manhattan 68%
• Stay in Lower Manhattan 25%

If the trials of suspected 9/11 terrorists are moved out of Lower Manhattan, should the trials be held elsewhere in New York State or held outside of New York State?

• In New York State 42%
• Outside New York State 44%

Do you think the suspected 9/11 terrorists should be tried as criminals in civilian court or as enemy combatants in military court?

• Criminals in civilian court 36%
• Enemy combatants in military court 56%

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Jamie Weinstein writes about the media coverage of former Governor Sarah Palin and former Senator John Edwards. Below are some clips:

No one can confuse me for someone who is an enthusiastic supporter of Sarah Palin. I think Sen. John McCain’s selection of Palin as his 2008 running mate will be counted among the very worst legacies in the Arizona senator’s long and storied career.

Nonetheless, there is little question that Palin has been treated unfairly by the press, at least in comparison to other politicians.

And no comparison best illustrates the double standard the media has with Palin than how they treated another former vice-presidential nominee, Sen. John Edwards.

We now definitively know just how much of a liar, cheat and phony John Edwards is. But if the media had been one half as interested in exposing Edwards as a fraud as they have been in excoriating Palin, perhaps it would not have taken the National Enquirer to discover the truth that has led to the downfall of a politician who had a very real chance of becoming President.

Palin was never given the benefit of the doubt, in large part because the world-view to which she subscribes is anathema to the one held by so many pundits and reporters.

This double standard bleeds over into the way the presidential candidates who selected Palin and Edwards are viewed.

According to an article written in Time magazine by Kerry-Edwards 2004 campaign strategist Bob Shrum, in a conversation that Kerry had with Edwards when he was testing the waters to see if Edwards was right for the No. 2 slot on the ticket, Edwards told him about the effect his son’s death had on him.

Shrum wrote, “Edwards had told Kerry he was going to share a story with him that he’d never told anyone else – that after his son Wade had been killed, he climbed onto the slab at the funeral home, laid there and hugged his body, and promised that he’d do all he could to make life better for people, to live up to Wade’s ideals of service.

“Kerry was stunned, – not moved – because, as he told me later, Edwards had recounted the same exact story to him, almost in the exact same words, a year or two before – and with the same preface, that he’d never shared the memory with anyone else.”

Viewers of this site know that I am no fan of Palin becoming President of The United States. However, the media bias against her is not only well-documented, but absurd as well. So she had hand notes after critiquing President Obama’s extensive use of a teleprompter. Whoop-de-doo. Edwards lied to Kerry when being asked to be his Vice Presidential candidate. Palin’s daughter’s ex-boyfriend tells sordid details about Palin (is there proof?), and it’s news, but Edwards gets ripped in “Game Change” and it barely gets a blip? Give me a break.

Let’s keep using the Internet, conservatives, and make the mainstream media as un-mainstream as Tucker Carlson thinks it is. Then, we’ll see where conservatives can go in politics with the better ideas and accurate media reporting and commentary.

Oh, and just so we have more confidence in our media- this is the media that is ready to cover the Tiger Woods statement at 11:00 EST, but left it to National Enquirer to break the Edwards story.

I’m at the CPAC Bloggers’ Lounge now. I’ll be sending updates semi-regularly throughout the day — hopefully doing my trademark thing and stirring up a bit of trouble. Maybe I’ll start arguing with the “Truth About Homosexuality” folks. And I’ve got a fun question for Gary Johnson coming up.

If you’re around and want to meet up, shoot me an e-mail at apkkib@aol.com. I’ll be at CPAC all day today and tomorrow.

From The Washington Examiner. This is pretty dead-on, though it does ignore the fact that a number of speakers said Republicans have to earn the conservative vote.

Rasmussen Virginia Political Survey

How would you rate the job Bob McDonnell has been doing as Governor?

• Strongly approve 29%
• Somewhat approve 36%
• Somewhat disapprove 21%
• Strongly disapprove 9%

Under Governor McDonnell, will state government spending go up, down or stay about the same?

• Up 21%
• Down 22%
• Stay about the same 45%

Under Governor McDonnell, will your state taxes go up, down or stay about the same?

• Up 26%
• Down 12%
• Stay about the same 52%

How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President?

• Strongly approve 37% [37%] {37%} (40%) [41%] {32%} (39%)
• Somewhat approve 11% [12%] {16%} (12%) [8%] {18%} (9%)
• Somewhat disapprove 12% [11%] {9%} (9%) [9%] {7%} (10%)
• Strongly disapprove 39% [40%] {38%} (39%) [41%] {42%} (41%)

Note: Barack Obama won Virginia with 53% of the vote in November 2008.

Survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted February 16, 2010. The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted October 12, 2009 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted September 29, 2009 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted September 16, 2009 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted September 1, 2009 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted August 10, 2009 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers:

Eighty-six percent (86%) of Republicans and 68% of unaffiliated voters approve of McDonnell‘s job performance, compared to just 44% of Democrats.

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Rasmussen Wisconsin Senatorial Survey

• Tommy Thompson (R) 48% (47%)
• Russ Feingold (D) 43% (43%)

• Russ Feingold (D) 47%
• Terrence Wall (R) 39%

• Russ Feingold (D) 47%
• Dave Westlake (R) 37%

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Tommy Thompson 63% (56%) / 34% (39%) {+29%}
• Russ Feingold 50% (47%) / 48% (48%) {+2%}
• Dave Westlake 33% / 31% {+2%}
• Terrence Wall 34% / 35% {-1%}

How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President?

• Strongly approve 27% (26%)
• Somewhat approve 20% (20%)
• Somewhat disapprove 14% (8%)
• Strongly disapprove 38% (46%)

Note: Barack Obama won 56% of the vote to carry Wisconsin in November 2008.

How would you rate the job Jim Doyle has been doing as Governor?

• Strongly approve 16% (11%)
• Somewhat approve 24% (25%)
• Somewhat disapprove 20% (20%)
• Strongly disapprove 40% (42%)

Survey of 500 likely voters was conducted February 17, 2010. The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted January 26, 2010 are in parentheses.

I finally managed to track down GOProud, the free-market gay organization that is co-sponsoring CPAC. I took a few minutes of Board Chairman Chris Barron’s time to ask him about DADT, GOProud’s platform and federalism on gay marriage.

Barron had three points regarding lifting DADT:

1. Our troops serve with countries that have open service by homosexuals, and we have heard of no issues.

2. The experiences of our allies, particularly Israel, with open service is one of success. If Israel, which has a model military, has had open service since 1981 with no issues we have heard about, why shouldn’t we?

3. In a time of international conflict, we need all the qualified people we can get to serve.

Barron followed up on point #3 by saying that if DADT works, why are we losing so many people? The example he used was Arabic translators. (He also said the policy is demeaning and insulting to gay people.)

When I asked Barron about separation of gay people from the rest of those in the military, similar to the separation of males and females for relationship reasons, he responded that gay men and women currently serve without physical separations. I found this particular response weak, as his answer is exactly why DADT works. It keeps men and women from being in relationships to help mission effectiveness.

Before I go into the platform part of my discussion with Barron, below is GOProud’s ten-point platform, also found on their website:

The so-called “gay agenda” is defined by the left through a narrow prism of legislative goals. While hate crimes and employment protections may be worthy goals, there are many other important priorities that receive little attention from the gay community. GOProud’s agenda emphasizes conservative and libertarian principles that will improve the daily lives of all Americans, but especially gay and lesbian Americans.

1 – TAX REFORM - Death tax repeal; domestic partner tax equity, and other changes to the tax code that will provide equity for gays and lesbians; cut in the capital gains and corporate tax rates to jump start our economy and create jobs; a fairer, flatter and substantially simpler tax code.

2 – HEALTHCARE REFORM – Free market healthcare reform. Legislation that will allow for the purchase of insurance across state lines – expanding access to domestic partner benefits; emphasizing individual ownership of healthcare insurance – such a shift would prevent discriminatory practices by an employer or the government.

3 – SOCIAL SECURITY REFORM - Bringing basic fairness to the Social Security system through the creation of inheritable personal savings accounts.

4 – DON’T ASK, DON’T TELL REPEAL – Repeal of the military’s Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell policy.

5 – HOLDING THE LINE ON SPENDING – Standing up for all tax payers against wasteful and unneccessary spending to protect future generations from the mounting federal debt.

6 – FIGHTING GLOBAL EXTREMISTS – Standing strong against radical regimes who seek to criminalize gays and lesbians.

7 – DEFENDING OUR CONSTITUTION – Opposing any anti-gay federal marriage amendment.

8 – ENCOURAGING COMMUNITY ENTREPRENEURSHIP – Package of free market reforms to encourage and support small businesses and entrepreneurship in the gay community.

9 – REVITALIZING OUR COMMUNITIES – A package of urban related reforms; expanding historic tax preservation credits; support for school choice.

10 – DEFENDING OUR COMMUNITY – Protecting 2nd amendment rights.

As Ed Morrissey pointed out back in December, conservatives should be okay with GOProud’s platform, excepting perhaps numbers four and seven, though most conservatives should be against number seven as well. (I am one of them.)

Back on point- I asked Barron if prioritizing free market principles as good for the gay community hurt GOProud, as it might cause people to forget that the free market-based policies espoused in the platform are good for all Americans. Barron responded that the point was to show that issues such as health care, taxes etc. are everyday issues for all Americans, not to be segregated into heterosexual or homosexual issues. Furthermore, he pointed out that Islamic fundamentalism is the greatest threat to gay people, and so defeating those extremists would help everyone.

Lastly, I mentioned that I think gay marriage should be handled on the state level, and not through the courts. Being from New Hampshire, I used that state’s legalization of gay marriage through the legislature as an example of an appropriate way to pass gay marriage (though I also stated that I am against gay marriage). He said that as a conservative, he agreed with state-level handling of gay marriage, and felt that courts should not be making policy.

Overall, I think this organization is a boon to Republicans and the conservative movement. He and the fellow founder of the organization, Jimmy LaSalvia- funny enough, whom I met at a breakfast two days before the 2008 New Hampshire presidential primary, when he was with the Log Cabin Republicans- seemed to be enjoying themselves, and Barron said they had been treated very well by all, with the exception of Liberty University, which had complained initially about GOProud’s inclusion. We could do much worse than GOProud, and in fact did so by allowing the John Birch Society to co-sponsor CPAC.

PPP (D) North Carolina 2012 GOP Primary

If the Republican candidates for President in 2012 were Mike Huckabee, Sarah Palin, and Mitt Romney who would you vote for?

• Mike Huckabee 33%
• Sarah Palin 27%
• Mitt Romney 25%

Among Republicans

• Mike Huckabee 32%
• Sarah Palin 29%
• Mitt Romney 25%

Among Independents

• Mike Huckabee 37%
• Mitt Romney 26%
• Sarah Palin 20%

Among Conservatives

• Mike Huckabee 34%
• Sarah Palin 30%
• Mitt Romney 24%

Among Moderates

• Mike Huckabee 32%
• Mitt Romney 30%
• Sarah Palin 18%

Among Men

• Mike Huckabee 35%
• Sarah Palin 27%
• Mitt Romney 24%

Among Women

• Mike Huckabee 30%
• Sarah Palin 29%
• Mitt Romney 27%

Survey of 646 likely Republican primary voters was conducted February 12-15, 2010. The margin of error is +/- 3.9 percentage points. Party ID breakdown: 83% Republican; 17% Independent. Political ideology: 73% Conservative; 24% Moderate; 3% Liberal.

Just had a nice conversation with Gary Marx of the Judicial Crisis Network (JCN) – formerly known as the Judicial Confirmation Network. As we gear up for potential Supreme Court nominations this summer – Mr. Marx had some interesting thoughts on how things could shake out.

First off, he said he’s only expecting one vacancy, with either Justice Stevens or Justice Ginsburg staying on until next year for the sake of continuity. He also said the Obama Administration probably wants only one SCOTUS nomination battle at a time. He said that Obama has demonstrated the ability to “walk and chew gum at the same time”, and hence wants to keep the focus on one nomination.

He also steered away from the speculation that the nomination would go to a legal beagle like Cass Sunstein or Solicitor General Elena Kagan. Instead, he noted the stated desire among Dems for someone with legislative experience – as they believe that the Citizens United v. FEC decision would not have happened had the court had “more understanding” of elections and the legislative process. Combine this with the potential that Obama will be weakened by the election cycle, and Marx thinks the nomination could well go to a sitting Democratic Senator – who would be likely to sail through confirmation and provide the “necessary” legislative experience to rule in favor of campaign finance restrictions in the future. Marx dropped a few names but those were strictly off the record.

One last thing he mentioned is that judicial nominations could become a key issue in the 2010 elections. Specifically, he noted that Dan Coats was the Bush Administration’s senatorial “Sherpa” for then-nominee Samuel Alito – and has cited judicial nominations as one of the main reasons he wishes to return to the Senate. So, watch for the SCOTUS issue to surface in the race to replace Evan Bayh in Indiana.

John Boehner used his speech at CPAC to outline a few interesting proposals for changes that would be made under “Speaker Boehner”. They included:

1. Posting of all bills online for at least 72 hours before a vote.

2. TV cameras in meetings of the Rules Committee – so that people can examine the process by which bills are brought to the floor.

3. A ban on ”phantom amendments” inserted between the time a bill passes out of committee and the time it arrives on the House Floor.

4. Prohibiting congressman from earmarking money for projects that will be named after them.

————–

I’ll be live-tweeting from CPAC all day, http://twitter.com/adambrickley

I was able to interview Rep. Rob Bishop (R-UT) today for about ten minutes, thanks to Ericka Andersen of the House Republican Conference. Below is our exchange (paraphrased and based upon notes I took during the interview):

DS: Debt is our biggest issue. My father believes that we will never get out of the debt hole Presidents Bush and Obama are putting us in. How would you work to get this country out of this debt and deficit load?

RB: I don’t mean to over-simplify the solution, but federalism should be applied. We need to redefine what the role of the federal government is. We have good programs, but who runs them? The federal government. It’s too big to run so many programs well.

We should have the states run many programs, and give them the tax revenue that would otherwise be given to the federal government.

Creativity, efficiency and justice can only be done at the state and local levels- the federal government is just too big. We need to get the federal government out of peripheral areas. Foreign policy and national defense should be handled at the federal level, though.

DS: What would be your strategy to federalize these programs?

RB: Empower states to fight Congress. Back in 1988, Bruce Babbitt proposed empowering the states to oppose Congressional acts. The basic proposal was that if 2/3 of the states opposed a Congressional act, it sunsets in a year. National defense and foreign policy would be exempt.

DS: The Pentagon budget is as full of waste, fraud and abuse as any program, including Medicare. I know it’s hard for a Republican to commit to streamlining the Pentagon budget, but would you do so?

RB: No. I would not. That’s partially because the Pentagon has already started a lean program in Depot Force, and is asking people on the front line of building what our military needs how we can make things cheaper, with less of a footprint and with fewer people.

*Originally posted at THE LOBBYIST.

PPP (D) 2012 Presidential Survey

• Barack Obama 45% (44%) {47%} [48%] (48%) {48%} [47%] (49%) {48%} [53%] (50%)
• Mitt Romney 43% (42%) {42%} [43%] (40%) {39%} [40%] (40%) {40%} [35%] (39%)

• Barack Obama 46% (44%) {46%} [49%] (47%) {48%} [47%] (48%) {50%} [52%] (49%)
• Mike Huckabee 43% (45%) {45%} [44%] (43%) {41%} [44%] (42%) {43%} [39%] (42%)

• Barack Obama 50% (49%) {50%} [51%] (52%) {53%} [52%] (51%) {52%} [56%] (53%)
• Sarah Palin 43% (41%) {44%} [43%] (40%) {38%} [38%] (43%) {40%} [37%] (41%)

• Barack Obama 46%
• John Thune 28%

Among Independents

• Mitt Romney 43% (44%) {37%} [42%] (40%) {35%} [41%] (43%){42%} [30%] (35%)
• Barack Obama 38% (37%) {47%} [44%] (41%) {46%} [41%] (42%) {35%} [55%] (52%)

• Mike Huckabee 43% (44%) {41%} [42%] (40%) {33%} [41%] (43%) {46%} [35%] (37%)
• Barack Obama 42% (38%) {49%} [49%] (43%) {46%} [42%] (44%) {40%} [55%] (53%)

• Barack Obama 49% (42%) {50%} [51%] (47%) {52%} [50%] (47%) {46%} [52%] (51%)
• Sarah Palin 39% (41%) {41%} [42%] (35%) {35%} [34%] (41%) {41%} [37%] (44%)

• Barack Obama 41%
• John Thune 27%

Note: In 2008, John McCain received 44% of the Independent vote (29% of the electorate). In 2004, George W. Bush received 48% of the Independent vote.

Among Republicans

• Mike Huckabee 81% (82%) {83%} [87%] (79%) {77%} [80%] (76%) {79%} [74%] (77%)
• Barack Obama 11% (10%) {7%} [5%] (10%) {13%} [11%] (12%) {17%} [15%] (13%)

• Mitt Romney 80% (77%) {78%} [83%] (77%) {72%} [74%] (71%) {74%} [66%] (71%)
• Barack Obama 10% (9%) {8%} [6%] (10%) {14%} [11%] (18%) {19%} [18%] (16%)

• Sarah Palin 78% (77%) {80%} [84%] (77%) {70%} [74%] (79%) {72%} [65%] (71%)
• Barack Obama 14% (14%) {12%} [7%] (15%) {18%} [15%] (14%) {18%} [27%] (21%)

• John Thune 50%
• Barack Obama 13%

Note: In 2008, John McCain received 90% of the Republican vote (32% of the electorate). In 2004, George W. Bush received 93% of the Republican vote.

Among Democrats

• Barack Obama 78% (82%) {80%} [86%] (82%) {78%} [81%] (77%) {79%} [81%] (77%)
• Mitt Romney 13% (7%) {14%} [11%] (12%) {14%} [11%] (13%) {13%} [11%] (14%)

• Barack Obama 78% (82%) {77%} [84%] (79%) {78%} [80%] (81%) {81%} [81%] (77%)
• Mike Huckabee 12% (10%) {16%} [11%] (15%) {15%} [15%] (13%) {12%} [12%] (17%)

• Barack Obama 81% (88%) {82%} [89%] (86%) {83%} [84%] (83%) {82%} [83%] (81%)
• Sarah Palin 15% (8%) {15%} [10%] (12%) {13%} [10%] (15%) {15%} [14%] (15%)

• Barack Obama 78%
• John Thune 11%

Note: In 2008, John McCain received 10% of the Democratic vote (39% of the electorate). In 2004, George W. Bush received 11% of the Democratic vote.

Among Moderates

• Barack Obama 54% (58%) {65%} [59%] (60%) {57%} [57%] (56%) {57%} [64%] (63%)
• Mitt Romney 31% (26%) {24%} [31%] (28%) {30%} [30%] (32%) {28%} [24%] (26%)

• Barack Obama 57% (61%) {63%} [62%] (61%) {58%} [56%] (58%) {64%} [66%] (65%)
• Mike Huckabee 30% (28%) {29%} [30%] (29%) {31%} [32%] (32%) {28%} [25%] (26%)

• Barack Obama 63% (66%) {69%} [65%] (66%) {68%} [63%] (62%) {68%} [71%] (65%)
• Sarah Palin 27% (24%) {24%} [28%] (25%) {23%} [25%] (31%) {25%} [22%] (30%)

• Barack Obama 56%
• John Thune 18%

Note: In 2008, John McCain received 39% of the Moderate vote (44% of the electorate). In 2004, George W. Bush received 45% of the Moderate vote.

Among Men

• Mitt Romney 45% (45%) {49%} [42%] (46%) {46%} [44%] (46%){44%} [38%] (44%)
• Barack Obama 45% (44%) {42%} [48%] (46%) {44%} [44%] (46%) {46%} [49%] (49%)

• Barack Obama 46% (44%) {42%} [49%] (43%) {44%} [43%] (43%) {45%} [50%] (46%)
• Mike Huckabee 44% (47%) {52%} [44%] (47%) {47%} [49%] (49%) {48%} [41%] (47%)

• Barack Obama 50% (50%) {45%} [52%] (50%) {50%} [48%] (47%) {48%} [53%] (49%)
• Sarah Palin 44% (42%) {48%} [42%] (42%) {41%} [41%] (47%) {44%} [41%] (47%)

• Barack Obama 47%
• John Thune 30%

Note: In 2008, John McCain received 48% of the Male vote (47% of the electorate). In 2004, George W. Bush received 55% of the Male vote.

Among Women

• Barack Obama 45% (43%) {50%} [47%] (50%) {52%} [50%] (51%) {50%} [56%] (52%)
• Mitt Romney 42% (39%) {35%} [44%] (36%) {34%} [36%] (35%) {37%} [31%] (34%)

• Barack Obama 46% (44%) {50%} [49%] (51%) {50%} [50%] (53%) {54%} [54%] (52%)
• Mike Huckabee 43% (43%) {40%} [45%] (39%) {36%} [39%] (36%) {37%} [36%] (37%)

• Barack Obama 50% (48%) {53%} [51%] (54%) {55%} [56%] (54%) {55%} [58%] (56%)
• Sarah Palin 41% (41%) {41%} [45%] (37%) {36%} [35%] (40%) {36%} [34%] (36%)

• Barack Obama 45%
• John Thune 27%

Note: In 2008, John McCain received 43% of the Female vote (53% of the electorate). In 2004, George W. Bush received 48% of the Female vote.

Do you think Mitt Romney is too conservative, too liberal, or about right?

• Too conservative 22%
• Too liberal 8%
• About right 43%

Among Republicans

• Too conservative 7%
• Too liberal 9%
• About right 61%

Among Independents

• Too conservative 16%
• Too liberal 8%
• About right 50%

Among Moderates

• Too conservative 24%
• Too liberal 7%
• About right 41%

Do you think Mike Huckabee is too conservative, too liberal, or about right?

• Too conservative 24%
• Too liberal 8%
• About right 37%

Among Republicans

• Too conservative 11%
• Too liberal 10%
• About right 54%

Among Independents

• Too conservative 22%
• Too liberal 6%
• About right 39%

Among Moderates

• Too conservative 28%
• Too liberal 8%
• About right 30%

Do you think Sarah Palin is too conservative, too liberal, or about right?

• Too conservative 34%
• Too liberal 10%
• About right 39%

Among Republicans

• Too conservative 12%
• Too liberal 5%
• About right 71%

Among Independents

• Too conservative 34%
• Too liberal 9%
• About right 39%

Among Moderates

• Too conservative 41%
• Too liberal 14%
• About right 24%

Do you think Sarah Palin is or is not qualified to serve as President?

• Yes/Qualified 30%
• No/Not qualified 59%

Among Independents

• Yes/Qualified 28%
• No/Not qualified 61%

Among Republicans

• Yes/Qualified 53%
• No/Not qualified 30%

Among Democrats

• Yes/Qualified 12%
• No/Not qualified 83%

Among Moderates

• Yes/Qualified 18%
• No/Not qualified 73%

Among Men

• Yes/Qualified 32%
• No/Not qualified 58%

Among Women

• Yes/Qualified 27%
• No/Not qualified 60%

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Romney 37% (36%){32%}[30%](34%){33%}[37%](37%){41%}[40%](40%) / 28%(32%){36%}[39%](34%){38%}[34%](37%){36%}[36%](35%) {+9%}
• Huckabee 35%(35%){35%}[36%](33%){38%}[45%](42%){43%}[44%](42%)/26% (29%){35%}[37%](29%){36%}[28%](33%){34%}[32%](34%) {+9%}
• Palin 39% (42%){41%}[40%](36%){37%}[40%](47%){43%}[42%](42%) / 49%(51%){50%}[49%](51%) {55%}[49%](45%){49%}[50%](49%) {-10%}
• Thune 5% / 11% {-6%}

Among Independents

• Romney 44% (41%){28%}[31%](38%){38%}[40%](45%){40%}[37%](36%) / 22%(32%){39%}[37%](28%){33%}[31%](28%){33%}[42%](39%) {+22%}
• Huckabee 38%(38%){34%}[32%](34%){32%}[48%](44%){46%}[44%](37%) / 20%(30%){41%}[41%](27%){38%}[24%](30%){31%}[36%](36%){+18%}
• Palin 33% (42%){39%}[36%](34%){33%}[37%](45%){44%}[34%](38%) / 53% (51%){54%}[49%](48%){59%}[49%](43%){42%}[58%](51%) {-20%}
• Thune 7% /12% {-5%}

Among Republicans

• Palin 72% (71%){73%}[75%](72%){69%}[72%](76%){75%}[76%](76%) / 17% (19%){18%}[15%](18%){22%}[16%](19%){20%}[15%](18%) {+55%}
• Romney 58% (56%){51%}[48%](54%){50%}[52%](54%){63%}[67%](60%) / 14% (17%){15%}[19%](20%){21%}[18%](25%){21%}[17%](21%) {+44%}
• Huckabee 56%(56%){57%}[65%](56%){70%}[66%](66%){70%}[64%](67%)/14%(17%){14%}[11%](13%){12%}[13%](19%){17%}[20%] (18%){+42%}
• Thune 6% / 4% {+2%}

Among Democrats

• Huckabee 16%(11%){17%}[13%](14%){13%}[26%](22%){21%}[27%](25%) / 40%(40%){48%}[56%](42%){55%}[43%](46%){50%}[40%] (45%){-24%}
• Romney 15% (12%){18%}[14%](15%){15%}[23%](20%){24%}[20%](27%) / 44%(47%){53%}[56%](48%){55%}[49%](52%){49%} [49%] (45%) {-29%}
• Palin 13% (14%){14%}[13%](9%){12%}[15%](25%){18%}[17%](18%) / 74%(80%){76%}[78%](79%){80%}[75%](67%){76%}[74%](73%) {-61%}
• Thune 3% / 15% {-12%}

Among Conservatives

• Palin 69% (69%){73%}[80%](65%){69%}[68%](73%){72%}[73%](67%) / 18% (19%){16%}[12%](19%){22%}[20%](18%) {21%}[17%](20%) {+51%}
• Huckabee 57%(57%){59%}[66%](53%){59%}[61%](65%){68%}[60%](56%) / 13%(12%){14%}[8%](12%){15%}[13%](16%){17%}[19%](18%) {+44%}
• Romney 51% (52%){50%}[46%](49%){46%}[49%](53%){58%}[59%](54%) / 15%(15%){16%}[22%](16%){20%}[22%](20%){22%}[18%](19%) {+36%}
• Thune 8% / 4% {+4%}

Among Moderates

• Romney 37% (30%){23%}[26%](29%){32%}[34%](33%){35%}[35%](34%) / 29% (38%){44%}[37%](37%){41%}[36%](39%){40%}[42%](44%) {+8%}
• Huckabee 28%(21%){22%}[25%](24%){29%}[40%](34%){33%}[40%](36%) / 29%(37%){43%}[45%](34%){43%}[30%](36%){38%}[36%](41%) {-1%}
• Palin 23% (26%){23%}[23%](22%){20%}[29%](33%){33%}[29%](28%) / 63%(68%){70%}[62%] (66%){71%}[58%](58%){58%}[64%](67%) {-40%}
• Thune 4% / 13% {-9%}

Among Men

• Romney 40% (42%){37%}[32%](39%){34%}[42%](42%){44%}[45%](45%) / 29%(35%){37%}[41%](35%){43%}[37%](38%){38%}[34%](39%) {+11%}
• Huckabee 35% (35%){40%}[34%](34%){41%}[47%](48%){47%}[45%](47%) / 30% (33%){38%}[45%](35%){40%}[28%](32%){39%}[33%](36%){+5%}
• Palin 39% (41%){45%}[37%](40%){39%}[43%](50%){47%}[48%](46%) / 48% (50%){50%}[51%](47%){54%}[46%] (43%){45%}[46%](49%) {-9%}
•  Thune 7% / 16% {-9%}

Among Women

• Huckabee 35%(34%){32%}[37%](32%){35%}[43%](38%){40%}[43%](37%)/22%(27%){32%}[29%](23%){33%}[28%](34%){30%}[32%](32%){+13%}
• Romney 35% (31%){27%}[28%] (29%){31%}[33%](34%){39%}[36%](36%) / 27% (30%){35%}[35%](32%){33%}[32%](36%){34%}[38%](32%){+8%}
• Palin 38% (43%) {37%}[42%](32%){36%}[37%](45%){40%}[36%](39%) / 50% (51%){51%}[48%](54%){55%}[51%](46%){53%}[53%](49%) {-12%}
• Thune 4% / 6% {-2%}

Survey of 743 registered voters was conducted February 13-15, 2010. The margin of error is +/- 3.6 percentage points. Party ID breakdown: 40% {38%} (36%) [39%] Democrat; 34% {34%} (35%) [34%] Republican; 26% {28%} (29%) [27%] Independent. Political views: 48% {40%} (47%) [41%] Moderate; 35% {41%} (39%) [41%] Conservative; 16% {19%} (14%) [18%] Liberal. Results from the poll conducted January 18-19, 2010 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted December 4-7,2009 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted November 13-15, 2009 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted October 16-19, 2009 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted September 18-21, 2009 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted August 14-17, 2009 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted July 15-16, 2009 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted June 12-16,2009 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted May 14-18, 2009 are in square brackets; from April 17-19, 2009, in parentheses.

Lindsey Vonn, downhill skier, had her gold medal stripped. It was determined President Obama was going downhill faster than she was.

He’s introducing Mitt Romney.

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I’ll be live-tweeting from CPAC all day, http://twitter.com/adambrickley

Just finishing up the blogger panel at CPAC (Erick Erickson, Tucker Carlson, Townhall’s Jonathan Garthwaite, Washington Examiner’s Mark Tapscott) – and Tucker Carlson had an interesting point.

Why do we use the term “Mainstream Media” to describe the news networks and newspapers? After all, considering the far left bent of many editors, there’s really nothing mainstream about them. Furthermore – by using the term, people like the staff at R4’12 unthinkingly legitimize ourselves.

I think he has a point – and looking at recent opinion polls, WE are the mainstream media and THEY are the left-field alternative.

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I’ll be live-tweeting from CPAC all day, http://twitter.com/adambrickley

Liz Cheney is onstage at CPAC and wiping the floor with the Obama Administration’s terrorism policies. She spent a lot of time on Guantanamo
and then HAMMERED them for not addressing the threat from Yemen – as Yemeni-trained or Yemeni-affiliated terrorists (often with Yemeni-made bombs) have carried out three attacks in America (Little Rock shooting, Fort Hood, Christmas Day Bomber).

AND SHE JUST INTRODUCED HER DAD FOR A SURPRISE SPEECH – to a standing ovation. The former VP said he thinks 2010 is going to be a great year and Obama will be a one-termer.

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I’ll be live-tweeting from CPAC all day, http://twitter.com/adambrickley

Rasmussen Indiana Senatorial Survey

• John Hostettler (R) 49%
• Baron Hill (D) 31%

• Dan Coats (R) 48%
• Baron Hill (D) 32%

• Marlin Stutzman (R) 41%
• Baron Hill (D) 33%

• John Hostettler (R) 46%
• Brad Ellsworth (D) 27%

• Dan Coats (R) 46%
• Brad Ellsworth (D) 32%

• Marlin Stutzman (R) 40%
• Brad Ellsworth (D) 30%

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Dan Coats 54% / 27% {+27%}
• John Hostettler 48% (44%) / 22% (27%) {+26%}
• Marlin Stutzman 35% (31%) / 25% (26%) {+10%}
• Brad Ellsworth 35% / 29% {+6%}
• Baron Hill 39% / 35% {+4%}

How would you rate the job Mitch Daniels has been doing as Governor?

• Strongly approve 36% (35%)
• Somewhat approve 34% (35%)
• Somewhat disapprove 15% (17%)
• Strongly disapprove 12% (12%)

How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President?

• Strongly approve 19% (20%)
• Somewhat approve 25% (23%)
• Somewhat disapprove 11% (15%)
• Strongly disapprove 43% (41%)

Survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted February 16-17, 2010. The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted January 21 & 24, 2010 are in parentheses.

I just attended a forum that got my attention with “Is it time for a Catholic Tea Party?” (The idea is outlined in a column here.)

Deal Hudson, President of Catholic Advocate, was the main speaker- he feels that Catholics have let Evangelicals take the lead on life and gay marriage issues, and Catholics need to step up, donate money, vote for the right candidates, take the body shots, etc. He also felt that the USCCB has erred in some ways that it advocates for policies, and particularly regarding voter guidance. He talked a lot about the goals of Catholic Advocate (see their website here), in particular getting Catholic Members of Congress who are pro-life and in favor of traditional marriage. There was a time for questions, and a couple of people expressed great frustration at how lay Catholics, priests, bishops, etc. have failed to properly bring the message to voters and elected representatives. There was also talk about shutting off funding of organizations that are clearly not Catholic in action or faith.

I left for a few minutes, but when I came back there was discussion of how to properly balance life issues- for example, do the Iraq war, global warming and immigration issues outweigh abortion in regards to voting for a candidate?

Marco Rubio swung by to speak for a few minutes, and made the following points (paraphrased):

1. America is not the world’s police. That said, we are the only superpower that can stand against our enemies, even though our enemies constantly change- i.e. they may not have a capital.

2. Our domestic issues are related to our foreign policy issues, such as our owing debt to countries that don’t respect life.

3. Social/moral issues and economic issues are related. For example, our schools are not doing well, because of broken families and broken neighborhoods.

4. How can we help Rubio win:

A. Donate money. The campaign average is $100.

B. Spread the word.

C. Volunteer in the summer for the campaign.

I managed to get a two-minute interview with Deal Hudson, and asked him a couple of questions (paraphrased, as best I can remember):

DS: Why is gay marriage listed as one of your top issues, as opposed to immigration reform, healthcare reform, religious freedom, etc.?

DH: Religious freedom is above gay marriage. Regarding the other issues, gay marriage is important to keeping families, the basis of society, strong. No, it is not going to destroy traditional marriage, but it will subvert it. Marriage is not about committed relationships- it is about a singular kind of commitment created by God. (This last section, after the hyphen, is the best summary of what he said that I can remember. He did not say “God” in his comment, but I am interpreting off of memory. I do apologize for the lack of a direct quote.)

DS: We don’t live in a theocracy- how can we create a policy on gay marriage based upon our religious faith?

DH: Leave religion out of the policy debate. This is about the raising of children. Keep the argument focused on that.

The room was fairly full, with about 25 people in attendance. It was very interesting. I recommend checking them out- again, their website is here.

*This was originally posted at THE LOBBYIST.

We interrupt our regularly scheduled CPAC coverage to inform you that a coup is occurring in the African nation of Niger.

According to the BBC, President Mamadou Tandja arrested by the military while chairing his weekly cabinet meeting. This after gun battles broke out in the capital city of Niamey.

This probably isn’t huge news as Niger is likely just trading a relatively undemocratic personalist government for a totally undemocratic military government – although it remains to be seen who exactly is in charge and whether they will make life even worse for the population.

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I’ll be live-tweeting from CPAC all day, http://twitter.com/adambrickley