Poll Watch: Las Vegas Review-Journal/Mason-Dixon Nevada Senatorial Survey

February 28, 2010

Poll Watch: Las Vegas Review-Journal/Mason-Dixon Nevada Senatorial Survey

Las Vegas Review-Journal/Mason-Dixon Nevada Senatorial Survey

Republican Primary

Sue Lowden 47% [26%] {25%} (23%) [14%]

Danny Tarkanian 29% [28%] {24%} (21%) [33%]

Sharron Angle 8% [13%] {13%} (9%) [5%]

Senatorial Election

Sue Lowden 52% [50%] {51%} (49%) [45%]

Harry Reid 39% [40%] {41%} (39%) [40%]

Danny Tarkanian 51% [49%] {48%} (48%) [49%]

Harry Reid 40% [41%] {42%} (43%) [38%]

Sharron Angle 44% [45%]

Harry Reid 42% [40%]

If a candidate running under the banner of the Tea Party were to enter Nevada’s U.S. Senate race, do you think you would likely vote for Harry Reid, the Democrat, the Republican candidate that wins the primary or the Tea Party candidate?

Harry Reid 36%

GOP nominee 32%

Tea Party candidate 18%

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

Sue Lowden: 36% [32%] {33%} (31%) / 17% [17%] {13%} (15%) {+19%}

Danny Tarkanian: 30% [33%] {32%} (30%) / 17% [16%] {12%} (11%) {+13%}

Sharron Angle 19% [21%] / 9% [11%] {+10%}

Barack Obama 39% [34%] {44%} (46%) / 46% [46%] {43%} (43%) {-7%}

Harry Reid: 33% [33%] {38%} (38%) [37%] / 51% [52%] {49%} (50%) [50%] {-18%}

Survey of 625 Nevada voters (including a subsample of 300 Republican primary voters) was conducted February 22-24, 2010. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points; +/- 6 percentage points among GOP primary voters. Party ID breakdown: 43% Democrat; 37% Republican; 20% Independent. Results from the poll conducted January 5-7, 2010 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted November 30 – December 2, 2009 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted October 6-8, 2009 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted August 17-18 are in square brackets.

by Aron Goldman @ 2:37 pm. Filed under Barack Obama, Poll Watch

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37 Responses to “Poll Watch: Las Vegas Review-Journal/Mason-Dixon Nevada Senatorial Survey”

Bob Hovic Says:
February 28th, 2010 at 2:48 pm
The big change doesn’t seem to make sense — why did Lowden pick up twenty points on Tarkanian? Little change in favorables, and I haven’t heard of any big events.
Tommy Boy Says:
February 28th, 2010 at 2:50 pm
Bob,

Wondering the same thing. Perhaps Ras will confirm.
Flip Dixon Says:
February 28th, 2010 at 2:52 pm
Biggest worry: the “Tea Party” candidate splitting the anti-Reid vote.

It could very well happen in Nevada, which has a big liberatarian population.
Aron Goldman Says:
February 28th, 2010 at 3:00 pm
Lowden leads GOP Senate field
http://www.lvrj.com/news/lowden-leads-gop-senate-field-85760137.html

Sue Lowden has emerged as a clear leader among Republicans fighting for the chance to run against Sen. Harry Reid this fall, according to a new poll that also shows the incumbent Democrat continues to trail against his major challengers.

But the polling done for the Las Vegas Review-Journal also shows this year’s U.S. Senate race could undergo a major shake-up if a Tea Party candidate gets involved.

It would be a new ballgame, and Reid would be the big beneficiary.

A disaffected conservative running under the Tea Party banner would drain support from a Republican candidate, according to polling of a three-way contest.

In that case, Reid would draw 36 percent of voters, while the Republican nominee would get 32 percent and the Tea Party candidate 18 percent if the election were held today.

Pollster Brad Coker said the numbers figure to change depending on the identity of the Republican and the Tea Party candidate, but at this point, “it does show that a three-way vote would help Reid.”

Coker, managing partner of Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, said it’s worth noting that Reid continues to be stuck at around 40 percent in the matchups.

Another thing to watch, Coker said, are independents, who make up about 20 percent of the electorate. Both Lowden and Tarkanian continued to draw more than 50 percent support from those voters, with Reid’s backing at 31 percent against Lowden and 38 percent against Tarkanian, according to the poll.

“As long as the Republican candidate has a significant lead among independents, it will be pretty hard for Reid to win,” Coker said. “I don’t see today where Reid can get 45 percent of the vote.”
Tommy Boy Says:
February 28th, 2010 at 3:09 pm
Gordon Brown on course to win election
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article7044185.ece

GORDON BROWN is on course to remain prime minister after the general election as a new Sunday Times poll reveals that Labour is now just two points behind the Tories.

The YouGov survey places David Cameron’s Conservatives on 37%, as against 35% for Labour — the closest gap between the parties in more than two years.

It means Labour is heading for a total of 317 seats, nine short of an overall majority, with the Tories languishing on a total of just 263 MPs. Such an outcome would mean Brown could stay in office and deny Cameron the keys to No 10.

The poll result presents the Conservative leader with one of the greatest challenges of his leadership today as he makes the keynote speech to his party’s spring forum.
hamaca Says:
February 28th, 2010 at 3:24 pm
4. “A disaffected conservative running under the Tea Party banner would drain support from a Republican candidate, according to polling of a three-way contest.”

“In that case, Reid would draw 36 percent of voters, while the Republican nominee would get 32 percent and the Tea Party candidate 18 percent if the election were held today.”

There’s a perfect example of what the purity concept will get you.
Tommy Boy Says:
February 28th, 2010 at 3:30 pm
Hamaca,

It’s pretty clear that this “tea party” in Nevada is a Democrat-funded effort to split votes from whoever emerges as the Republican nominee.
hamaca Says:
February 28th, 2010 at 3:31 pm
6. I should say, there’s a perfect example of what dogmatic adherence to purity will get you regardless of the cost to the party’s chances to win.
Not the bad Anonymous Says:
February 28th, 2010 at 3:42 pm
The “Tea Partiers” better stay the hell out of this race.
Bob Hovic Says:
February 28th, 2010 at 3:44 pm
When they say ‘a Tea Party candidate’ without a name or face, it’s an example of a blank slate that draws support because people can imagine the perfect candidate who agrees with them on everything. When it becomes a real candidate taking real stands on real issues and alienating somebody with each of those stands, they lose support.

See: Medina, Debra.

I don’t worry too much about such hypotheticals.
Aron Goldman Says:
February 28th, 2010 at 3:46 pm
why did Lowden pick up twenty points on Tarkanian?

Sue Lowden Ad: Invest and Innovate
February 17, 2010
Aron Goldman Says:
February 28th, 2010 at 3:47 pm
Sue Lowden Ad: Creating Opportunity
February 8, 2010
Aron Goldman Says:
February 28th, 2010 at 3:49 pm
Sue Lowden Ad: Leading with Integrity
February 1, 2010
Flip Dixon Says:
February 28th, 2010 at 3:51 pm
I think Lowden’s big investment on TV ads is what’s driving her numbers up.

Carly Fiorina take note!
Aron Goldman Says:
February 28th, 2010 at 3:58 pm
When they say ‘a Tea Party candidate’ without a name or face, it’s an example of a blank slate that draws support because people can imagine the perfect candidate who agrees with them on everything. When it becomes a real candidate taking real stands on real issues and alienating somebody with each of those stands, they lose support.

Tea Party to field candidate in battle for Harry Reid’s Senate seat
February 13, 2010
http://www.lasvegassun.com/news/2010/feb/13/report-tea-party-field-candidate-battle-harry-reid/

Sun columnist Jon Ralston is reporting that the Tea Party has qualified as a third party in Nevada and will have a candidate in the Senate race to battle for the seat held by Majority Leader Harry Reid.

The party has filed a Certificate of Existence but needs to get 1 percent of the electorate to vote for its candidate in November to permanently qualify, according to the report.

Ralston reported that Jon Ashjian will be the Tea Party’s U.S. Senate candidate on the November ballot. Ashjian still must declare his candidacy.

There are six other third-party candidates going through the verification process to appear on the ballot as U.S. Senate candidates — one Reform Party hopeful and five as independents, Ralston reported.

According to the party’s constitution, the Tea Party of Nevada will “promote this nation’s founding principles of freedom, liberty and a small representative government. We believe that our government under both Democrat and Republican control has led to massive national debt, crushing deficits, increased taxes; while establishing a large and powerful federal government in a direct refutation of the founding ideals of America.”

The Tea Party of Nevada’s constitution, bylaws and officers are available here.

Tommy Boy Says:

It’s pretty clear that this “tea party” in Nevada is a Democrat-funded effort to split votes from whoever emerges as the Republican nominee.

Jon Ralston’s Newsletter
February 16, 2010
http://www.nevadanewsbureau.com/2010/02/15/tea-party-imposters/

I learned a little bit more today about Jon Ashjian, who will be filing against Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid. Some morsels to chew on:

—I have little doubt that he will file, and he scoffed (via e-mail) at the notion he is a stalking horse for Reid:

“I am not for Harry Reid, I have never been supportive of Harry Reid, My candidacy is real, The Tea Party is real, and we are not going away.”

—Ashjian, who goes by Scott, not Jon, is the second (count ‘em!) Armenian in the race (Danny Tarkanian is the other) and is from a large family of Mormon converts. I also understand he is quite wealthy and has a ton of business dealings, which inevitably will cause some controversy.

—Ashjian and Tea Party spokesman Barry Levinson, as Flashed to you earlier, are waiting for filing to really open up about the effort. But if what I hear is true, and if he decides to spend his own money, this could be a real nightmare for the GOP – and if the Tea Partiers qualify their slate, not just in the Senate race.
Bob Hovic Says:
February 28th, 2010 at 4:06 pm
I’ll place the bet right now — Jon Ashjian (whoever he is) will get 5% or less in November.
Another Bob Says:
February 28th, 2010 at 4:25 pm
Another Bob hopes that this poll will sound the alarm bells to those who desire a third party candidate in 2012. Let us work to return the Republican Party to the party of fiscal conservatism and small government.
Chad Says:
February 28th, 2010 at 4:33 pm
What an awful shame that Reid might win reelection because of the tea party movement.
Tommy Boy Says:
February 28th, 2010 at 4:49 pm
Coats neck-and-neck with Ellsworth in race to replace Bayh
http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/senate-races/84111-coats-neck-and-neck-with-ellsworth-in-race-to-replace-bayh

The Daily Kos/Research 2000 poll was sent around Sunday by the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC). It showed Coats leading Ellsworth 37 percent to 36 percent with 27 percent undecided among all those surveyed, but the poll has a margin of error of 4 percentage points.

On the other hand, ex-Rep. John Hostettler (R), who is one of five GOPers seeking the nomination, leads Ellsworth 40 percent to 24 percent with 26 percent undecided.
Tommy Boy Says:
February 28th, 2010 at 4:55 pm
http://twitter.com/thenote/status/9788219439

Just got new Romney book. Sarah Palin not in index. And Pelosi’s name spelled “Peolosi.”
Flip Dixon Says:
February 28th, 2010 at 5:33 pm
#20, nice to know that Mittens put a lot of time and effort into his campaign pamphlet.
Dave Says:
February 28th, 2010 at 6:46 pm
The Tea Party movement consists of several different elements, the largest part of which appears to be amenable to working with, or at least voting for, the Republican Party.

Then you have the Glenn Beck segment, whom I have little disagreement with, but is seriously brain-damaged in terms of tactics and strategy. This group is incapable of distinguishing between a half-trillion dollar deficit and a one and a half-trillion dollar deficit.

I used to be a very active member of the Libertarian Party, and I remained one until it was obvious that the Party would NEVER, EVER, SUPPLANT THE GOP as one of the 2 major parties. The more intelligent tea partiers will come to that conclusion in a few years. I hope it doesn’t cost us too many elections in the meantime.
Dave Says:
February 28th, 2010 at 6:53 pm
I should mention that Sue Lowden looks like a super-candidate who could very well win this race, Tea Party or no Tea Party.
DanL Says:
February 28th, 2010 at 7:16 pm
I have complete contempt for the tea partiers in NV.
Tommy Boy Says:
February 28th, 2010 at 7:28 pm
http://wenzelstrategies.com/?p=909

Nearly a year after they sprang to life in local groups across America, the so–called Tea Party movement is winning acceptance from a wide swath of the electorate nationwide. Well over half of likely voters nationwide – 56% – hold a positive impression of the movement, compared to just 30% who hold a negative opinion of it. This spells the beginning of a movement that is likely to continue its growth and influence….

Naturally, Republicans have much more affinity toward the movement than do Democrats, but what is most important to note is that a significant majority of Independent voters – 57% – hold a positive opinion of the movement…..

While 61% of men have a positive impression, compared to 52% of women who say the same thing.

The higher the income of the respondent, the more likely they were to have a positive opinion of the Tea Party movement, not a big surprise when considering the movement’s opposition to the massive new spending and taxes proposed by the Obama administration. That said, even a majority of those in the lowest income category – those in households making $50,000 or more, have a positive impression of the movement.
JA Pruce Says:
February 28th, 2010 at 7:36 pm
Governor Palin was very smart politically not to include an index and its omission made many liberals apoplectic. Looks like Mitt might be playing the Washington game a little with this index inclusion – we shall see.
Tommy Boy Says:
February 28th, 2010 at 7:37 pm
#26 Who knows, maybe misspelling Pelosi’s name will win him some points?
JA Pruce Says:
February 28th, 2010 at 7:43 pm
27,

Yeah, that could very well have been intentional to upset the Democrat speaker.
OSUPhantom Says:
February 28th, 2010 at 8:10 pm
I don’t see why the Tea Party would run when Sue Lowden is a solid conseravtive. A businesswoman and leader. Really? I don’t think you can run to her right.
Flip Dixon Says:
February 28th, 2010 at 8:18 pm
#29, Lowden pulled a Romney and changed her position on abortion from pro-choice to pro-life when she decided to run.

She also gave money to Harry Reid’s prior campaign.
Viking Says:
February 28th, 2010 at 8:31 pm
#30 was she pro-choice in the state senate? I’ve read on hotair that she was pro-life even back then, and had a pro-life voting record.
Tommy Boy Says:
February 28th, 2010 at 8:37 pm
Flip,

If I’m not mistaken, Lowden and Romney’s people aren’t working together in Nevada.

In any event, the Wall Street Journal Editorial Board has published the following article for tomorrow:

Back to the ObamaCare Future
The Massachusetts ‘model’ moves to price controls.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703444804575071294139286892.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
Flip Dixon Says:
February 28th, 2010 at 11:37 pm
#31, she was indeed pro-choice as a state senator and refined her position in later years.

Like Romney, she flip-flopped. Whether he gave her advice on how to execute the flip-flop — I can’t say. Maybe she had a sudden change of heart after discussing stem-cell research with a panel of experts.
John Mark Says:
February 28th, 2010 at 11:40 pm
33, We sure don’t want people converting to being pro-life.
Flip Dixon Says:
February 28th, 2010 at 11:45 pm
#34, have no problem with GENUINE conversions….
John Mark Says:
February 28th, 2010 at 11:50 pm
I have no problem with political conversions either – it means the pro-life movement has some influence. Honestly, I don’t think we can be too sure about anybody’s heart and its not our concern as voters – our concern is how will they vote.
Flip Dixon Says:
March 1st, 2010 at 12:00 am
For those of us who care deeply about the pro-life cause, I suggest looking at a candidate’s WHOLE record, not just his rhetoric for the past few years.

And even after his conversion, Romney enacted a health plan that paid for abortions. So he’s hardly done much for the movement other than talk.