We’ll have to see if the new low persists, but today, the President’s Rasmussen approval inched down to 43% (with 55% disapproving). In other news, his Presidential Approval Index registered at 21% today, tied for his worst on record.
I by no means consider myself anywhere near an expert on polling, but Rasmussen has appeared to act as a leading indicator for trends in Obama’s approval. The President has managed to hover around 50% in Gallup (coming in at 49/45 today), which we might expect, with the difference in polling methods between Rasmussen and Gallup. If Obama sinks down to around 40% with Rasmussen, we should see him dip to the mid-40s, probably his breakeven point for 2012, in Gallup. Time will tell.
February 27th, 2010 at 9:29 pm
Ummm, guys, gals, it’s even better than this.
Take a gander at Real Clear Politics. RCP just hours ago, updated the new culmulative totals as of 24 hours ago. I’ve been watching the RCP like a hawk for the last few weeks, waiting, and waiting for the two lines to merge and then criss-cross.
IT HAS FINALLY HAPPENED!!!
Tonight, the approval and disapproval lines are aligned for the very first time ever! Obama’s approvals are only over his disapprovals by 0.1%
By tomorrow with the Saturday Rasmussen totals, even worse, I expect the lines to cross, if ever so slightly.
This will be the headliner everywhere on Monday morning.
February 27th, 2010 at 10:27 pm
Watch what happens if the Democrats in the Senate, at Obama’s insistence, resort to reconciliation to ram through ObamaCare. The Obama approval rating will drop into the 30′s and Republicans will have a double-digit lead in the generic ballot. The nuclear option will explode in their faces.
February 27th, 2010 at 10:31 pm
#2… But if they succeed at ramming the bill through via reconciliation, we’re screwed in the long-run, regardless of what happens in this year’s elections.
Thankfully that’s anything but a sure thing.
February 27th, 2010 at 11:27 pm
I posted this earlier today on a different thread, but here it is again.
If you track Ras’s daily’s, you see that this new record low is a direct correlation to the HC Summit. (Some of you may respond, “Well, Duh.”)
But If we go back to the end of January, we can see that Obama’s 2 hour visit to the GOP Caucus had exactly the opposite effect: He went up 5 points immediately, then came back to baseline over the next ten days.
This impact is being felt mostly on his strongly approve number, and didn’t have a direct transfer to a stronger disapprove.
My conclusion is there is no amount of exposure and discussion that can improve the public’s impression of HCR. On the contrary, the more they talk, the more pissed off they are. I think a lot of it is that the more/longer they are talking about HCR, the less they are talking about jobs and deficit. And they are way mad at congressional dems.
February 27th, 2010 at 11:41 pm
#4:
It’s pretty undeniable that all this talk about HCR is just killing Congressional Democrats ahead of the midterms. The best thing for the GOP from an electoral point of view would be to keep delaying anything on HCR for as long as possible. As you said, the more the Dems talk about this, the less time they are focusing on the stuff that really matters.
This “health care reform, everything else be damned” attitude is going to be the Democrats undoing come November. We just have to keep them on it for as long as we can.
February 27th, 2010 at 11:47 pm
“I think a lot of it is that the more/longer they are talking about HCR, the less they are talking about jobs and deficit.”
Exactly — the issue is the economy (in which I include jobs and the deficit). And I don’t mean that the economy is the main issue — I mean it is the ONLY issue in a great many people’s minds (enough people to swing the election).
And those people are po’d at the Democrats because the Dems have been concentrating for many months now almost exclusively (at least that’s the perception) on health care, which the po’d voters see as at best a distraction, and at worst a hugely expensive addition to the deficit.
Lesson to the Republicans: if you feel you absolutely must talk about abortion, immigration, national security, or darn near anything else — make it clear that you understand that these are secondary to the economy. But better yet — talk about nothing but the economy.
February 27th, 2010 at 11:53 pm
Hunter,
If HCR wasn’t a major political loser for the Dems, they would have done it last year. They can fathom that there will be fallout. But if they decide to go that route, all they have to do is round up 50 votes (plus Biden) and there, functionally, isn’t anything we can do to stop them.
February 27th, 2010 at 11:57 pm
#7:
Not necessarily. There is one more parliamentary trick the GOP Senators have up their sleevs. What they could do is offer amendment after amendment to the health-care bill all of which would have to be read, debated, and voted on. If the GOP offers literally hundreds of amendments, it could stall the process just as effectively as a filibuster.
Right now though, the real battle seems to be in the House. Pelosi has already lost two votes; the late John Murtha and Joseph Cao has said he won’t vote for it. The vote was incredibly tight last time and a few more Blue Dogs might defect again, particularly if the Stupak Amendment is stripped out of the bill.
February 28th, 2010 at 12:14 am
Bob,
I don’t think we should concede that Obama’s approval rating is tied to the economy. Because if we make that concession, then we lose the ability to argue against him if the economy improves in voter’s minds even if he wasn’t in any way responsible for the improvement.
February 28th, 2010 at 1:59 am
Gordon Brown on course to win election
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article7044185.ece
February 28th, 2010 at 2:03 am
Pawlenty’s 2012 effort: On radar but weak signal
The governor’s presidential campaign hasn’t caught fire nationally, but there’s time. “I think he’s on the radar. It’s a pretty distant signal, though,” said GOP strategist John Feehery
http://www.startribune.com/politics/state/85735342.html?elr=KArksi8cyaiUo8cyaiUiD3aPc:_Yyc:aUU
February 28th, 2010 at 7:46 am
Expect a NY Times Poll to come out and keep his numbers from intersecting.
February 28th, 2010 at 11:19 am
If the economy rebounds significantly in voters’ minds, the GOP can simply kiss 2012 goodbye, and proceed with the academic exercise of selecting its sacrificial lamb (Palin, Gingrich, Cheney), while protecting the brightest prospects in their farm system (Ryan, Jindal, Thune) from premature exposure.
February 28th, 2010 at 12:02 pm
10 – Brown will lose, he has narrowed the polls to 2 points in 1 poll but Cameron had a good conference speech today and will win the UK’s first TV debates. It will be very close, akin to Kennedy v Nixon or Gore v Bush, with Brown the man with substance but no charisma from the incumbent party and Cameron the charismatic figure criticised as a lightweight. (The Tories also perform better in the marginals).
February 28th, 2010 at 12:56 pm
What in the world has Brown done to warrant reelection? Wow.
February 28th, 2010 at 1:12 pm
Cameron: British election will be close contest
Britain’s main opposition leader David Cameron acknowledged Sunday the country’s looming national election will likely be a closer contest than predicted, but vowed to oust Prime Minister Gordon Brown and win office.
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5gAPTCE9bGjUhFJswE38oJl9e0JJAD9E59V200
David Cameron tells Tories to ‘get up and fight’
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article7044400.ece
February 28th, 2010 at 2:55 pm
If Cameron loses his election, and the GOP scores big gains in 2012, it’s pretty much a repudiation of the GOP moving toward the center.
Since Romney is the centrist’s candidate for 2012, it will doom his chances even further.
February 28th, 2010 at 2:55 pm
Sorry, meant to say GOP scoring big gains in 2010 in #17.
February 28th, 2010 at 3:14 pm
#8: You forgot Robert Wexler and another Democrat whose name escapes me. That means that if the Senate Bill reaches the floor between now and April, and everyone except Joseph Cao votes the same way, the final vote will be 216-216, not enough for passage (Biden can only break ties in the Senate). And while Pelosi probably had a handful of votes in reserve back in November that was before A) the Stupak amendment was stripped and B) Scott Brown’s win in Massachussetts,which made Democrats realize there was no such thing as a safe seat.
If the Democrats win at least 2 of the 3 open house races by the end of April (losing only Murtha’s) they’ll have just barely enough votes to ram this through 218-217, if they get each and every Blue Dog on board, although how they get there without the Stupak amendment is beyond me.
February 28th, 2010 at 4:21 pm
I had predicted on an earlier thread that Obama would drop to 43% approval in October of 2010. I based this on the fact that many Americans would begin to realize that their taxes would be going up pending the expiration of the Bush tax cut and the (potential) passage of ObamaCare as well as any anti-global warming bill.
I really did not think he would drop this far this early – I await other polls to see if they support this one.