Franklin & Marshall Pennsylvania Senatorial Survey
Democratic Senatorial Primary
- Arlen Specter 33% (30%) {30%} [37%] (33%)
- Joe Sestak 16% (13%) {18%} [11%] (13%)
- Some other candidate 7% (7%) {5%} [6%] (6%)
- Don’t know 44% (50%) {47%} [46%] (48%)
Senatorial Election
Among Registered Voters
- Arlen Specter (D) 33% (30%) {33%} [37%]
- Pat Toomey (R) 29% (30%) {31%} [29%]
- Some other candidate 9% (5%) {6%} [9%]
- Don’t know 29% (35%) {30%} [25%]
- Pat Toomey (R) 25% (28%) {28%} [26%]
- Joe Sestak (D) 22% (16%) {20%} [22%]
- Some other candidate 6% (5%) {4%} [6%]
- Don’t know 47% (51%) {48%} [46%]
Among Likely Voters
- Pat Toomey (R) 44% (45%)
- Arlen Specter (D) 34% (31%)
- Some other candidate 6% (4%)
- Don’t know 16% (20%)
- Pat Toomey (R) 38% (41%)
- Joe Sestak (D) 20% (19%)
- Some other candidate 3% (3%)
- Don’t know 39% (37%)
Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}
- Bob Casey 33% (32%) {32%} [41%] (32%) / 18% (20%) {21%} [18%] (17%) {+15%}
- Barack Obama 49% (44%) {45%} [55%] (57%) / 39% (44%) {39%} [37%] (27%) {+10%}
- Pat Toomey 16% (15%) {16%} [18%] / 7% (7%) {10%} [10%] {+9%}
- Joe Sestak 10% (8%) {11%} [13%] / 3% (6%) {5%} [4%] {+7%}
- Ed Rendell 41% (42%) {37%} [32%] (42%) / 44% (45%) {47%} [53%] (40%) {-3%}
- Arlen Specter 32% (35%) {28%} [35%] (31%) / 45% (43%) {46%} [42%] (37%) {-13%}
How would you rate the way that Arlen Specter is handling his job as U.S. Senator?
- Excellent job 5% (5%) {4%} [8%] (10%)
- Good job 25% (29%) {25%} [27%] (24%)
- Only a fair job 35% (31%) {36%} [35%] (37%)
- Poor job 27% (27%) {28%} [22%] (18%)
Do you believe that Arlen Specter has done a good enough job as senator to deserve re-election, or do you believe it is time for a change?
- Deserves re-election 25% (29%) {23%} [34%] (28%)
- Time for a change 63% (60%) {66%} [54%] (57%)
How would you rate the way that Barack Obama is handling his job as President?
- Excellent job 12% (11%) {17%} [14%] (20%)
- Good job 29% (27%) {23%} [33%] (35%)
- Only a fair job 32% (32%) {31%} [29%] (25%)
- Poor job 27% (29%) {28%} [24%] (19%)
Do you generally support or oppose the tea party movement?
- Strongly support 19%
- Somewhat support 20%
- Somewhat oppose 8%
- Strongly oppose 21%
How likely would you be to vote for a candidate who supports the tea party movement’s goals?
- Very likely 19%
- Somewhat likely 26%
- Not very likely 11%
- Not at all likely 23%
Do you think that abortion should be…
- Legal under any circumstances 19% (23%) {20%} [21%] (18%)
- Legal under certain circumstances 57% (50%) {54%} [54%] (58%)
- llegal in all circumstances 22% (24%) {23%} [23%] (22%)
Which of these statements comes closest to describing your feelings about the Bible?
- The Bible is the inspired word of God but not everything in it should be taken literally, word for word. 49% (47%) {49%} [48%] (56%)
- The Bible is the actual word of God and is to be taken literally, word for word. 30% (34%) {33%} [32%] (25%)
- The Bible is an ancient book of fables, legends, history, and moral precepts recorded by men. 18% (16%) {15%} [17%] (17%)
Survey of 1,143 adult residents of Pennsylvania, including 954 registered voters, and 324 likely voters, was conducted January 18-24, 2010. The margin of error is +/- 2.9 percentage points. The sample error for registered adults is +/- 3.2 percentage points and is slightly higher for registered Democrats (+/- 4.5 percentage points) and registered Republicans (+/- 5.3 percentage points). Party registration breakdown: 51% (46%) {49%} [48%] (52%) Democrat; 36% (43%) {39%} [39%] (36%) Republican; 10% (9%) {10%} [10%] (8%) Independent. Party ID breakdown: 36% (31%) {36%} [34%] (37%) Democrat; 24% (30%) {27%} [28%] (23%) Republican; 36% (37%) {33%} [34%] (35%) Independent. Political views: 37% (42%) {39%} [43%] (37%) Conservative;33% ( 30%) {36%} [36%] (34%) Moderate;21% (19%) { 16%} [16%] (19%) Liberal. Results from the poll conducted January 18-24, 2010 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted October 20-25, 2009 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted August 25-31, 2009 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted June 16-21, 2009 are in parentheses.
February 24th, 2010 at 2:25 pm
OH NO! obama camp is starting on strategy on the 2012 campaign ALREADY ! I thought they would not start till at least late fall 2011 http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0210/33411.html
February 24th, 2010 at 2:40 pm
Go Pat Toomey!
February 24th, 2010 at 2:41 pm
This poll shows the importance of filtering for likely voters, among whom Toomey leads by 10 points. The salient number though is that 63% of the electorate in Pennsylvania thinks it’s time for a change. There’s no way for Specter to get elected without divine intervention.
BTW, speaking of the divine, I like the fact that 79% think the Bible qualifies, while only 18% construe it to be myth.
February 24th, 2010 at 3:15 pm
Closer than I thought in Penn..
February 24th, 2010 at 3:18 pm
Even if Toomey is a little behind here – there’s lots of undecideds and Snarlin’ Arlen has big problems with his favorability rating.
February 24th, 2010 at 3:45 pm
Question: Is Arlen (who has turned into Obamacare’s biggest whore in the Senate since switching parties) more likely to swing back to the center-right if he loses the Primary on May 18, or if he wins? On the one hand, if he loses, he might be upset at Obama for not clearing the field for him, and Reid for making him an 80+ year old Junior Senator, and decide to extract revenge by derailing their signature initiative. On the other hand, Obammacare can’t be polling well in Pennsylvania, and if he is the nominee he might be inclined to ditch his support to better position himself against Toomey.
February 24th, 2010 at 3:59 pm
Is there an accepted rule-of-thumb for the standard difference between an RV poll and LV? I usually expect about five points or so of swing toward Republicans, but that’s not based on any study I’ve seen.
The swing here, 14-15 points seems unusually high — I suppose a result of the high level of motivation among Republicans, and discouragement among Democrats.
February 24th, 2010 at 4:56 pm
GOP Leaders Build New Home for Moderates
http://www.frumforum.com/gop-leaders-build-new-home-for-moderates-2
February 24th, 2010 at 4:59 pm
Best of luck to AA – but how on earth do you tackle major social problems with that kind of system?
February 24th, 2010 at 5:34 pm
I don’t think this poll can be trusted. There’s no way Rendell’s only at -3 here.
February 24th, 2010 at 5:52 pm
44% of Democrats don’t know who they will vote for in the primary. That is a very bad omen for an incumbant. Typically, we should expect those undecideds to break overwhelmingly for the challenger.
I give Sestak at least a 40% chance of winning the primary.
February 24th, 2010 at 7:37 pm
I was reading an article on this poll over at Real Clear Politics. Toomey is even winning (44 to 41) among union members. The current congressional delegation, which is 12D, 7R, could very well flip this cycle.