Research 2000 Iowa Political Survey
Gubernatorial Election
- Terry Branstad (R) 54%
- Chet Culver (D) 38%
- Chet Culver (D) 41%
- Bob Vander Plaats (R) 38%
- Chet Culver (D) 44%
- Chris Rants (R) 33%
UPDATE: Chris Rants has ended his gubernatorial campaign.
- Chet Culver (D) 48%
- Rod Roberts (R) 26%
Do you approve or disapprove of the job Chet Culver is doing as Governor?
- Approve 42%
- Disapprove 51%
Senatorial Election
- Chuck Grassley (R) 56%
- Roxanne Conlin (D) 35%
Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}
- Terry Branstad 61% / 24% {+37%}
- Charles Grassley 59% / 35% {+24%}
- Barack Obama 52% / 41% {+11%}
- Roxanne Conlin 41% / 36% {+5%}
- Bob Vander Plaats 36% / 34% {+2%}
- Chet Culver 44% / 43% {+1%}
- Rod Roberts 13% / 16% {-3%}
- Chris Rants 21% / 25% {-4%}
As you may know, same-sex marriages have been legal in Iowa for over a year. Would you favor or oppose a constitutional amendment which would overturn current law allowing same sex marriages in Iowa?
- Favor 39%
- Oppose 42%
Among Independents
- Favor 33%
- Oppose 45%
Among Republicans
- Favor 66%
- Oppose 13%
Regardless of how you feel about same-sex marriages, do you favor or oppose allowing same-sex couples the same benefits allowed to heterosexual couples, known as civil unions?
- Favor 51%
- Oppose 40%
Among Independents
- Favor 55%
- Oppose 35%
Among Republicans
- Favor 16%
- Oppose 68%
Do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing as President?
- Approve 49%
- Disapprove 46%
Among Independents
- Approve 47%
- Disapprove 48%
Do you favor or oppose the health care reform bill passed in December by the U.S. Senate?
- Favor 36%
- Oppose 57%
Among Independents
- Favor 35%
- Oppose 63%
Survey of 600 likely voters was conducted February 15-17, 2010. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points. Party ID breakdown: 33% Democrat; 29% Republican; 38% Independent.
February 21st, 2010 at 4:52 am
Lawmakers to press military on gay ban
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/02/21/AR2010022100830.html
February 21st, 2010 at 9:14 am
The Huckster keeps campaigning for Wonder Putz and Wonder Putz keeps sliding further back in IA. I wonder if Huck’s grassroots network in IA is falling apart.
February 21st, 2010 at 10:50 am
Given that Branstad is a Romney guy and van der Plaatz is a Huckabee guy, if this primary were to turn nasty and Branstad were to win the governorship, how would that affect the Caucuses in 2012??
It’s obvious by the polling that Branstad should be the nominee.
February 21st, 2010 at 11:43 am
The Romneycare/TARP Flip Flopper Mitt won’t fly in Iowa (or in SC and the entire South)
Huck or Palin FTW!
February 21st, 2010 at 11:48 am
Do you favor or oppose the health care reform bill passed in December by the U.S. Senate?
Favor 36%
Oppose 57%*
*Romney/Obama Care will likely critically harm Mitt’s chances in the Midwest also.
February 21st, 2010 at 12:07 pm
Sarah & Mike,
Your repeated inability to discern fundamental differences between MassCare and ObamaCare signifies either disingenuousness or cognitive impairment. For your sake, I hope it’s the former.
February 21st, 2010 at 12:10 pm
As you may know, same-sex marriages have been legal in Iowa for over a year. Would you favor or oppose a constitutional amendment which would overturn current law allowing same sex marriages in Iowa?
Among Republicans
Favor 66%*
Oppose 13%
…
Regardless of how you feel about same-sex marriages, do you favor or oppose allowing same-sex couples the same benefits allowed to heterosexual couples, known as civil unions?
Among Republicans
Favor 16%
Oppose 68%*
*More possible nails in Romney’s coffin
February 21st, 2010 at 12:13 pm
We need to tax the daylights out of them evil WalStreet guys. Theys gettin fat by making our kids fat from drinkin there evil sody pop. We should have a five dollar a gallon sody pop tax. The way to keep kids from gittin fat is make em go git there own food. Make em hunt for dinner. With the tax on the sody pop we can start a fund for the kids of poor folks to buy guns for there kids so they can shoot sqwerls for dinner. And every house in America that makes lessen twenty grand a year should git a free popcorn popper.
We dont want no company bossman to be our president. No sir, he dont care none atall if our kids isn gittin fat, just so long as his kids aint. He aint never een been huntin. He aint one a us.
February 21st, 2010 at 12:14 pm
RomneyCare + ObamaCare = MANDATED HEALTH INSURANCE!!!
February 21st, 2010 at 12:19 pm
RomneyCare dont even give insurance to fat kids if theys poor.
February 21st, 2010 at 12:23 pm
Well, I’m off to church here on the west coast. Hope you are, too. Open your ears…
February 21st, 2010 at 12:28 pm
I bet Marthas never ett sqwerl.
Shes some snooty Romney girl.
Martha only etts lobster.
Mailed to her by the Mittster.
From his boathome in New Hampsher.
February 21st, 2010 at 12:32 pm
The Romneycare/TARP Flip Flopper Mitt won’t fly in Iowa (or in SC and the entire South)
Huck or Palin FTW!
The flailing of a depraved mind. Ditto re the rest of your comments.
February 21st, 2010 at 1:07 pm
“MANDATED HEALTH INSURANCE!!!”
YES! UNLIKE SOME OF YOU IDIOTS WHO ARE PERFECTLY HAPPY TO LET OTHER IRRESPONSIBLE PEOPLE LEACH OFF OF OUR INCOMES, ROMNEY ACTUALLY REQUIRES PEOPLE TO HAVE A WAY TO PAY THEIR BILLS.
imageine that. A Conservative who still believes in responsibility.
February 21st, 2010 at 1:12 pm
#2, Huck only campaigned for Vander Plaats for one fundraiser early last year. He is coming to Iowa Wednesday to campaign for Bob. We’ll see after that if it will raise Bob’s numbers.
February 21st, 2010 at 1:14 pm
TARP? You betcha!
February 21st, 2010 at 1:32 pm
3. Dave
I suggested a couple of weeks ago that Branstad had endorsed Romney and was corrected by TB/Aron/Kavon that Terry had not endorsed anyone in the race.
However, many of those who are in responsible positions in the Branstad campaign now were on the Romney campaign in 2008. I also understand that Branstad’s son was on the Romney staff in IA in 2007/2008. Make of those details what you will.
I do think it indicates that IA politics may not be what it was in 2008. I have long suggested that Huck won’t be able to duplicate his results in 2012. This morning on MTP, David Gregory asked Pawlenty (BTW, I think he did a very nice job today) what he had meant in his CPAC speech that “God is in charge”, seeing that TPaw has identified himself as an Evangelical. (You may assume that TPaw was very deliberately sending signals about his religious bona fides to the folks in IA.)
Add Santorum and Thune to that candidate list and you see that Huck will have to split that portion of the vote that is socon/Evangelical FIRST with at least 3 other candidates. (I do NOT believe that the all Evangelicals vote as a block or look first for another Evangelical any more than I believe that all LDS vote for another LDS. Case in point: Harry Reid, or even Romney.)
Huck profited from an historic increase in turnout that was substantially Evangelical in ’08, more than 100,000 additional and unexpected voters. (Without those additional voters, he loses IA by 3%.) You may draw any conclusion you want about what got these previously non-caucusing folks to suddenly venture out on a cold night in January. Field forces on the ground attributed it to church and home school networks, which have a lot of overlap in IA. It was a holy crusade.
Question: Will that happen again? Can churches turn out their people with the same urgency when most of the field will be Evangelical? Can they keep the vote from splitting without splitting their congregations. Prediction: Evangelical voters will return back to their normal 40% of the attendees (down from 60%) and that will be shared among Romney, Pawlenty, Huck (if he runs), Palin (if she runs), Santorum, and Thune. As a result, it will not be definitive in the outcome.
The longer view issue is whether Pawlenty and others have to so fundamentally identify themselves as “movement” conservatives that they disqualify themselves in NH and beyond. That is very complicated calculus.
February 21st, 2010 at 2:04 pm
For 2012, I doubt Romney will finish any better than third in Iowa.
Those Iowa voters put a high value on authenticity. And unlike John Edwards, Mittens isn’t very good at faking it.
February 21st, 2010 at 2:41 pm
It does appear that the Iowa governor’s race is about the establishment vs the grassroots. I also see that playing out throughout the country. It is happening in a local race that I am volunteering for. And it is getting nasty.
February 21st, 2010 at 2:46 pm
Flip Dixon places a high value on the authentic lap-dog race Huckabee ran on behalf of McCain. Romney losing Iowa again is likely, having watched that state in action. But I think he’ll do better than last time around, and that’s all it will take.
February 21st, 2010 at 7:45 pm
still hurting,
I appreciate the clarification, but I didn’t see your comment about Branstad being a Romney guy, so no need to feel guilty. I was assuming it because I knew his son was a Romney staffer in ’08, and knew some of the people around him were Romney guys. If he, himself, is not, I stand corrected.
Excellent point that Tim’s talk about God being in charge is actually a lead in for running in Iowa, but if he takes that tack consistently in Iowa, it will hurt Huckabee. I also concur that the percentage of Evangelicals voting in the caucuses will subside. Really, the only way it COULD go is down.
February 21st, 2010 at 7:50 pm
One last point before watching the U.S. kick Canada’s Butt in Hockey: In the caucuses, Huckabee will be expected (if he runs) to win them going away, and Romney will be expected to drop out of them, or not be competitive if he doesn’t. That will make it pretty easy for Mitt to win the expectations game, and if he outright wins, it’s over, folks!!
February 21st, 2010 at 8:05 pm
Could you imagine the incredible odds Vegas would give for a Mitt win in Iowa ’12.
50 to 1? 100 to one?
February 22nd, 2010 at 12:51 am
Vander Plaats is backed by Steve Deace. That’s all the reason I would need to support Branstad.
February 22nd, 2010 at 8:48 am
A vote for Steve Deace is a vote for Satan.