The following was written by my brother Aaron and is duplicated here by permission.
————————————————————————————
One of the first reviews of Mitt Romney’s new book, No Apology: The Case for American Greatness came out yesterday from a fellow named David Bernstein from The Boston Phoenix. As it was (and still is) one of the only reviews of Mitt’s newest publication to hit the web, I found it to be quite insightful.
That said, the analytical tone Bernstein uses is rather tendentious and the picture he attempts to paint for Mitt’s future, especially with regards to the conservative south, is as abstract as a Picasso:
A critique of Bernstien’s misleading review and a more accurate synopsis of Mitt Romney’s future involvement in the South is provided by Mathew Continetti in his piece: Romney and the South:
[Bernstein] makes the questionable claim that “Romney is going to try to win without” Christian conservatives. And that means “skipping the South.”
Really? Religious conservatives make up a significant portion of the GOP electorate; winning the nomination without them is clearly a next-to-impossible task (McCain squeaked through because at first the religious conservatives split their vote among the various candidates). The South, moreover, is the geographic base of the Republican party — could a politician win the nomination with the Northeast, Midwest, Great Lakes, and Mountain States? Maybe, but he or she would have to sweep all those regions, which seems unlikely.
Romney is no dope; he understands how important the South is both in the Republican primary and in the general election.
Bernstein bases his claim on two pieces of evidence: (a) “Romney’s PAC has started ignoring southern pols” and (b) “most revealing is Romney’s decision not to attend this year’s Southern Republican Leadership Conference (SRLC) in April in New Orleans.”
Let’s look at these in reverse order. A spokesman for Romney’s Free and Strong America political action committee tells me the governor isn’t attending the SRLC because of a scheduling conflict. “The reason Mitt Romney is not attending the SRLC is because of conflicts with his book tour,” says Eric Fehrnstrom. “The book, No Apology: The Case for American Greatness, comes out March 2 and he’s on the road promoting it the entire month of March and half of April. During the SRLC, he’ll be in Philadelphia (World Affairs Council speech), New Hampshire (St. Anselm’s Institute of Politics speech and remarks to Politics and Eggs breakfast), Boston (Ford Hall Forum speech) and Minneapolis (book signing, Freedom Foundation speech).”
Nor does missing one conference signify rejection of an entire constituency. Sarah Palin made a highly publicized decision to skip next week’s Conservative Political Action Conference in Washington, D.C. Does that mean she thinks she can win the nomination without conservative support? Hardly. The same rule applies to Romney.
Despite Bernstein’s assertion to the contrary, Romney seems also to be paying attention to “Southern pols.” In 2009 he campaigned and fundraised for South Carolina Sen. Jim DeMint, Virginia governor Bob McDonnell, the Georgia House Republican Caucus, and the Duval County, Florida, GOP. This month, he’s scheduled to appear at a joint fundraiser for Georgia congressmen Westmoreland, Gingrey, and Price, and another for Florida Republican Rep. Connie Mack. Romney’s book tour (the full schedule hasn’t been released) will also take him through a variety of Southern locales.
Since losing the 2008 primary to John McCain, Romney has been expanding his political network. That expansion has not been limited to a particular area. Listen to him and his advisers: Romney will compete in the South.
Will southern Republicans vote for him? Now, that’s an entirely different question…
Does this group have a web presence yet?
~Aaron G.
February 11th, 2010 at 2:42 pm
How do I join Rednecks for Romney? I LOVE it.
February 11th, 2010 at 3:04 pm
@Georgia You should start it. You could be R4R Prez.
February 11th, 2010 at 3:26 pm
This fellow David Bernstein (Steven Bernstein is a misprint) seems to have a grudge against Romney. He has written several articles bashing Romney for no apparent reason with no factual or logical backup. What makes this guy credible?
February 11th, 2010 at 3:31 pm
I will like to see Romney compete for Iowa. A win in Iowa and a win in NH would make SC irrelevant. In fact, I think that it would be game over from there. Romney can win in Iowa. I don’t think that he can win in SC.
February 11th, 2010 at 3:32 pm
Thanks for the correction, Michael. I must have disregarded his name just as quick as I did his opinion. Not sure why Mitt mailed this guy an advanced proof of No Apology… Any press is good press mentality?
February 11th, 2010 at 3:38 pm
@Pablo… I personally attended a caucus in Iowa last time around; its rough country. My little brother was sent to a certain district as a representative of the Romney Team – the caucus there was held in a baptist church… Romney was in 2nd Place with 5 votes, losing to Huckabee with nearly 100 votes.
Unless things have since changed, or Huckabee flat out doesn’t run, I see Iowa as a very difficult win for Mitt. It will be interesting to see was he decided to do there. He may decide to take the McCain/Giuliani approach to IA this time around.
February 11th, 2010 at 4:44 pm
Whether Mitt ditches the South in the Primary depends on the field. There are Southern states where Romney is competitive, such as Florida, Georgia, and Tennessee. If, as I predict, he garners most of the old McCain support, he will be very competitive in South Carolina as well. But how it plays out is dependent on the internal dynamics of the race, and we don’t know those yet.
February 11th, 2010 at 5:13 pm
Romney will do fine in the Northeast, Michigan, some of the Western states. It’s not enough to win the nomination.
Just quit Mitt!!
February 11th, 2010 at 5:20 pm
Well, Romney has Flip scared :0
February 11th, 2010 at 5:25 pm
@DanL
I was thinking the same thing! 2012 is going to be a great year for Team Romney!
February 11th, 2010 at 5:27 pm
I went to a bicycle race in Spartansburg, SC las fall, and overheard 5 republicans talking about the fact that McCain ended up with the nomination. Only one of them had voted for Mitt Romney in the primary, but the other (4) of them said they wished they had.
February 11th, 2010 at 6:07 pm
Mitt will do better in the South this time around if he runs than he did in 2008.
People have had more time to get a good look at Mitt, Huckabee, and Palin, and Mitt will pick up more of the folks who don’t have their feet set in concrete.
I also think it’s a pretty big assumption to think that Huckabee will pick up where he left off in Iowa.
He slipped in at the end by causing a panic but folks there have also had time to think about things and get a good look at Mitt, Huckabee, and Dear Leader in action. And Mitt won’t be caught off guard by the same antics that saw Huckabee explode out of nowhere last time.
I don’t expect Mitt to say he has to win Iowa this time and he will keep expectations down, but I think he will be competing there on some level.
If both Palin and Huckabee run, or neither of them run, Mitt has a chance to win IA.
February 11th, 2010 at 6:12 pm
6. I think you may be right. However, Romney didn’t lose by that much last time. It is possible for him to win in Iowa. Plus, it is a caucus, which plays into Romney’s better organizational structure.
February 11th, 2010 at 6:37 pm
The voting was very lax in the Iowa caucus. You didn’t have to show anything to get into the auditorium, then little pieces of paper were passed out to everyone in the auditorium, and they turned them in. I EASILY could have voted; they offered me one, but being the honest person I am, I turned them down.
February 11th, 2010 at 7:00 pm
@IG You went to the Iowa caucuses? Did you volunteer at Romney HQ too? Why were you attending a caucus? Me and 3 of my brothers each went to different precincts as a rep from the campaign. We all had very different experiences.
February 11th, 2010 at 8:16 pm
I went there with a press pass. I went to several Romney gatherings, and two caucuses that night, and to the final rally awaiting results. I was at Romney HQ, but didn’t man the phones or anything.
Nate, different than each other’s or different than mine?
February 11th, 2010 at 8:26 pm
Each of us had different experiences. http://gunderdog.com/?p=6 There are some overly long videos of us going out to the caucuses. They are mostly for personal remembrance of the trip that’s why they aren’t edited for common consumption. You can see the places we went to caucus in the end of the last one, and I even have a little video of the library of an elementary school where my caucus was held.
How did you get a press pass?
February 11th, 2010 at 8:28 pm
Just lucky, I guess!
February 11th, 2010 at 8:37 pm
@IG -Nate’s brother, here. I can answer for Nate: We all had different experiences than each other. Mine was the only precinct that Romney won out of the 4 we collectively attended; it was held in a court house. I think Huckabee swept the 3 others that my brothers were at. We were mainly in very rural areas of Iowa.
At my precinct, I was alowed a good 10 mins to give my pitch for Romney. The only other camp that had sent a rep was Thompson’s. I feel like I was able to resolve concerns about Romney’s record and sway the vote a tad bit. I, also, was given a paper to put in a vote… I respectfully declined.
February 11th, 2010 at 8:38 pm
Ooops, I was way too late.
February 11th, 2010 at 8:59 pm
@Nate G. …Just watched those videos. That was a fun flashback! Shall we go to New Hampshire this time?
February 11th, 2010 at 10:31 pm
Great videos guys. I had completely forgotten there was that much snow on the ground. Mitt Romney! I love the guy! I believe with all my heart he will be a fantastic president that will make all Republicans proud, especially conservative ones.
February 12th, 2010 at 5:08 am
Sounds to me like there was some vote stuffing going on in Iowa.
I have a friend that caucused there. He was a Romney guy. The caucus was held in a church. At first there was fairly good support for Romney but buy the time the voting started a lot of people had been shamed into voting in line with fellow church members…..and they weren’t voting for Thompson, McCain, or Rudy!
Why do we let that state jerk around the GOP primaries like that?
Sounds like they run a Banana Republic vote there.
February 12th, 2010 at 9:41 am
23. “The caucus was held in a church. At first there was fairly good support for Romney but buy the time the voting started a lot of people had been shamed into voting in line with fellow church members…..and they weren’t voting for Thompson, McCain, or Rudy!”
Shamed into changing their vote? That can’t be. Certain Romney detractors have assured everyone that nothing of that sort could have happened and that to suggest otherwise is dishonest and whining. How do you reconcile the two?
February 12th, 2010 at 11:33 am
I hope someone better than Palpawromabee comes out at some point and gives us non-of-the-above people someone to vote for. I don’t like any of the four. What’s Judd Gregg doing in 2012? I’d vote for him.
February 12th, 2010 at 3:49 pm
Judd will be endorsing and working for Mitt, just like last time!
February 12th, 2010 at 7:33 pm
[...] That it what he needs to play on. Which also means he cannot, as some would try to contend, regionalize his campaign. Yes, Huckabee owns the South right now, but it’s way too early. The story of his [...]