Results are based on telephone interviews with 1,025 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted Feb. 1-3, 2010. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of error is ±4 percentage points.
For results based on the sample of 942 registered voters, the maximum margin of error is ±4 percentage points.
For results based on the sample of 490 Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, the maximum margin of error is ±5 percentage points.
February 11th, 2010 at 9:17 am
I will say the same thing I said at GOP-12. As a Romney fan, this is nothing to get excited over. McCain is not running. Brown is not running. Huck, if he runs, will be a lot more competitive. As will Pawlenty.
Also, we do not choose candidates through popular vote. Generally, Iowa, NH, and SC choose them for us. Although with Super Tuesday, their influence has been mitigated. I think that the Super Tuesday arrangement helps Mitt, who has name recognition and a better national structure in place than the other candidates.
Not only that, no one wants to lead these polls this early.
February 11th, 2010 at 9:18 am
And there is 42% that have no opinion.
February 11th, 2010 at 9:39 am
This is best a measurement of the awareness of registered voters, where almost 2/3rds either don’t know or don’t have a clue. Of the 1/3rd who “may” be listening, Romney receives 44% and Palin 34%. No one else garners as much as 10%.
The other important item is the way Independents are breaking, even for registered voters.
February 11th, 2010 at 9:49 am
This basically confirms that there is no front-runner for the Republican nomination. If the top preference in the poll only gets 14%, then they all have a long way to go before they get the nomination.
February 11th, 2010 at 10:03 am
While it is indeed satisfying to see Mitt on top, it’s way too early to be getting excited about a poll. Any poll released two years out need to be taken with a huge grain of salt.
February 11th, 2010 at 10:09 am
I may not be the smartest guy who reads this website, but my advice for republican success in 2012 is this:
#1. TAKE THE HIGH ROAD. Stop all the bickering and whining, and offer the country real common sense solutions to our problems, while COYLY resisting Obama’s overtures, goals and intentions.
#2. STOP ALL THIS TALK ABOUT SARAH PALIN. The country does NOT want her as president – - only the extreme right wing. Let her continue to be a good spokesperson for concrete conservative values, but PLEASE look for new faces (like Scott Brown) to represent us as real hope for the future.
#3. STAND FOR FREEDOM, LIBERTY AND DEMOCRACY…because we all know that Obama does NOT. We do this every day, and every day the American people will realize and feel the difference between us – - and them!
February 11th, 2010 at 10:11 am
I will say one thing. With Huckabee pulling numbers barely one fifth those of Romney’s, I think it safe to say that Mike is thinking this morning how nice his Fox gig is.
February 11th, 2010 at 10:13 am
italjoefl,
Do you not find it ironic that in your first point, you encourage us all to stop all the bickering and whining, and in the second you claim the only people who support Palin are of “the extreme right-wing”?
February 11th, 2010 at 10:14 am
6. The problem that I have with your last point is, How is Obama is against Freedom, Liberty and Democracy. Can you give an example? I think that Republicans needs better political slogans.
How about how unemployment is still high after the stimulus package? We need an accurate criticism of Obama.
February 11th, 2010 at 10:18 am
What will be of interest to me this far away from 2012 is to compare/contrast this snapshot in time to four years ago, where candidates were then, and what that meant for their strategy.
For example, Romney was way down in the early polls, very little name recognition. That resulted in a strategy to focus on building awareness, which included spending large sums of money on advertising, etc.
Now, he doesn’t face the same situation. So, what will that mean for strategy and tactics this time around if he chooses to run? Possibly a very different path. It will also be affected by who is likely to be running as well.
It will be just as interesting to see the approach Huck takes this time around, should he choose to run. Four years ago, there was also very little name recognition, a shoe-string budget, but more of a grass-roots network to take advantage of.
Now he’s quite well-known, has his talk shows, has more resources including financial. What will his approach be this time?
February 11th, 2010 at 10:22 am
9. Very good point. Such rhetoric needs to influence people who still very much like Obama, but would consider voting for an alternate due to dissatisfaction with his policies and actions. Throwing out wild accusations that are more spin than real substance will alienate this subset of voters. They can be convinced, but not if they are offended.
February 11th, 2010 at 10:23 am
Mitt has been at the top of numerous polls this past year…..I don’t care weather he is in front right now or not. I would rather him not be leading as the person leading tends to be the one taking all the shots!
February 11th, 2010 at 10:24 am
marK – I dont get your point. Is it not the smart thing to do to provide a candidate that has wide appeal?
February 11th, 2010 at 10:25 am
Thank you Gallup. This past week hearing about how great Huckabee is polling and seeing that off the top of people’s head, he isn’t doing that well. Like I’ve said before, its too early to know who the Republicans will choose.
February 11th, 2010 at 10:27 am
#6 Pablo:
Are you a socialist?
An example of how Obama is against freedom?
His handling of Iran, for one thing. I say no more. Think about it. I am not saying we ignore domestic issues but we have to show how his core beliefs are against what this country was built on and stands for. We dont have to be technocrats, we already have the dems for that.
February 11th, 2010 at 10:33 am
It’s interesting that 7% of Republicans want to try running John McCain again and that he ranks 3rd in this poll.
February 11th, 2010 at 10:36 am
Paul Talley?, why thy Spanish label, so you a former Miami resident, who doesn’t recall the few instances of corruption in that city, from Jones to Odio to Warshaw. You can ‘t figure why Obama who has’vowed to ‘fundamentally transform the United States of America, who has put Marxists like Van Jones and Mark Lloyd in critical positions, who is pushing for an honorous cap n tax and health
care regime, is a socialist.
February 11th, 2010 at 10:36 am
15. No, I am not a socialist. Neither is Obama. People who say that Obama is a socialist do not know what socialism is.
I am not sure how you can say that Obama is against freedom because he didn’t think it was a good idea to interfere in Iran. There are lots of reason to not intervene, none of which are, Obama is against freedom.
The statement that Obama is against freedom is insane. So he is in favor of slavery and oppression? Is that what you are saying? And you evidence is that he didn’t intervene and escalate a conflict with Iran?
I am just saying that moderates don’t follow that line of logic. We need moderates to win.
February 11th, 2010 at 10:40 am
“People who say that Obama is a socialist do not know what socialism is.” Haha, yeah, he is Mr. Capitalist.
February 11th, 2010 at 10:41 am
Narciso, that is me. I lived in Miami for two years, when I went to the UM. I currently teach English in Mexico. That is why I have a Spanish label.
Maybe there was corruption in Miami. Not sure. I never got that in my two years in Miami.
Cap and trade and health care reform are not socialist. Sorry to break that to you. I think that a socialist health care reform regime would be when there is only government run insurance, where the free market does not determine prices. You can make the argument that having a public option would lead to such a scenario. You cannot say that the health care proposals currently being pushed by Democrats are socialists. They are a bad idea, but not socialists.
February 11th, 2010 at 10:42 am
Pablo,
Obama is a socialist. Nationalized health care is a socialist program, among many other programs he wants to institute, of which I do not have the time mention them all.
February 11th, 2010 at 10:44 am
Amen to the Mitt Romney. If there ever was a time for that skill set, now is the time.
February 11th, 2010 at 10:44 am
I really doubt Huck is ahead of Ron Paul, but whatever
February 11th, 2010 at 10:53 am
Ron Paul? Are you crazy? Ron Paul isn’t even worth mentioning. He has less than zero chance. And this is coming from someone who would not vote for Huckabee.
February 11th, 2010 at 10:53 am
19, 21. No he is not. I cannot think of one socialist program that he has tried to pass. The closes thing is health care reform with a public option. One could argue that that scenario could lead to government decided prices. Can you give me another example?
Calling Obama a socialist, because one of his programs might lead to socialism in one area is not really fair. Again, I am a critic of Obama. But I don’t think that we need to call him every name in the book.
Please tell where Obama has pursued socialist policy?
February 11th, 2010 at 10:57 am
So you’re a Romney supporter in Mexico, do you think there is corruption there. Now my fair town does
labor under the unfortunate label that someone pegged on it, of Banana Republic, about a decade ago,but no more than New Orleans or Obama’s Chicago. And it cuts across all ethnicities. What do you think Alinsky which has been Obama’s guidebeook has been about, forcing people to accept socialism
February 11th, 2010 at 11:02 am
Narciso, I complimented you on GOP-12 because I think that you offer the best analysis of any Palin supporter out there (also Tommy Boy). I am just asking you to explain to me how Obama is a socialist. Name one policy that he has pursued or accomplished.
And yes, corruption is rampant in Mexico.
February 11th, 2010 at 11:02 am
If you believe this poll, it looks like almost all of Huckabee’s supporters must be confined to Arkansas and Alabama. I do think he does have a little more support than this though. However, the the last three polls that I have seen that ask about national support for the 2012 GOP nomination all show a big dip for Huckabee. Will he recover?
February 11th, 2010 at 11:03 am
#25 – Either you are misinformed or you are a deliberately trying to decieve. What hasn’t Obama pursued that couldn’t be construed as a socialist agenda? His proposals for healthcare are most certainly socialist proposals, the carjacking of GM, the environmental extremist policies that led to cap and tax legislation – all socialism.
February 11th, 2010 at 11:04 am
In 2006, if you had asked this question, I expect that the top two choices would have been Giuliani and McCain. After that, Frist, Allen, and Romney.
February 11th, 2010 at 11:09 am
29. Please explain. The critique of socialism is that there is not competition and therefore the free market does not decide prices. In socialism there is not supply and demand. How is cap and trade socialist? You can see 25 for my comments about health care reform. Taking over one car company temporarily is not socialism. Please explain.
February 11th, 2010 at 11:13 am
While, I am no fan of Huckabee’s, he would do better than this poll shows. However, Huckabee’s support is in large Evangelical areas. So, in larger states, like California, NY, Florida, he does very poorly. (Texas being the exception, where he does fairly well). In the bible belt, he has strong support. But that would not be enough to carry him to the nomination, but would be enough for him to be a factor should he decide to run.
February 11th, 2010 at 11:18 am
Those of you who are arguing whether Obama and his policies are socialist are trying to hit a moving target. You may want to first define “socialism” and then decide whether he fits the bill. Sure he’s a lot closer to European style socialism than any Republican candidate. Maybe he’d like to implement more socialist policies, but is hindered by his own party.
I’ve lived in Mexico and I’ve lived many years in Europe. I’ve lived with, been frustrated by, and even at times benefitted from socialist policies there. Based on Obama’s suggested policies, I can’t say we’re crossing the line to socialism, although there’s certainly clear evidence he’s been pointing us in that direction. There’s discussion out there that he may have to moderate his views as Clinton did–who knows whether this will happen.
Having said that, there is enough of a dramatic difference between his policies and the Republican platform, I think we could get a lot of mileage out of branding him a Socialist. It’s a valid point to make, given some of his appointees and the direction one of his constituencies, the Progressives, is pushing for.
February 11th, 2010 at 11:20 am
33. Amen. Your analysis is perfect. We maybe heading in that direction. Obama is certainly to the left of most Americans. But calling him every name in the book is not helpful. He is not a tyrant. He is not a socialist. He is the devil from the pit of hell. There is a huge difference between Republicans and Obama. We don’t need to make stuff up. McCarthy style politics will get us back the White House.
February 11th, 2010 at 11:22 am
33. I just read your last paragraph and disagree with that part. Branding him a socialist I do not think will work with moderates. Plus it is inaccurate.
February 11th, 2010 at 11:23 am
34. Sorry, I meant to say that Obama is not the devil from the pit of hell. Oops!
February 11th, 2010 at 11:31 am
I acknowledge your compliment, and the PAN, the closest thing to the Republicans over there, have tried to clean up that corruption left by generations of PRI rule. which may come to an end, if the
left party or the PRI return, as opinion polls seem likely. A presage of what we might face.
Now as too the poll, the first tipoff is to use two wide a sample, this is why CBS and even Fox Opinion Dynamics prove so off the mark, they can’t find a tight sample of registered or likely voters, next you see the discrepancy with other polls on the same topic. Just like the PPP poll
on Perry, he has a 17% approval/dissaproval yet wins against every candidate,
February 11th, 2010 at 11:41 am
Now this is a poll that I wouldn’t mind seeing repeated once a quarter or so, and I would expect Romney’s numbers to be better after his book tour. His behind the scenes hard work for the Party will pay larger dividends down the road when begins to collect well earned endorsements. Front runner status certainly has advantages at some point.
February 11th, 2010 at 11:43 am
to me the best part about this poll is the continued Independent voter support for the GOP candidate +14 is pretty good. Bodes well for the GOP this fall if we can get some good candidates.
February 11th, 2010 at 11:46 am
35. Maybe different branding for different groups of voters. You’re right that calling him a socialist will upset and turn off certain moderate voters who still like him and what his vision was. For others, it may be exactly what will rightly scare them against voting for him.
February 11th, 2010 at 11:48 am
Republicans lead Dems for Michigan gubernatorial race.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_governor_elections/michigan/election_2010_michigan_governor
February 11th, 2010 at 11:50 am
John McCain 7%. I wonder what proportion of that were people who are really out of touch with day to day politics or just not interested in general and John McCain was the only name they could come up with at that moment to save face. I can’t imagine it’s a McCain for 2012 movement.
February 11th, 2010 at 11:53 am
42. I would think that the 7% of McCain and the 4% of Brown would most likely go Romney’s way. Not sure though.
February 11th, 2010 at 11:58 am
43 -i think the odds would be good of that happening. but way too far out and we have 2010 to win big first
February 11th, 2010 at 12:09 pm
It’s still distressing that 44% would still vote to reelect, but that’s ten points down from election day
February 11th, 2010 at 12:31 pm
[...] (H/T: Race42012) [...]
February 11th, 2010 at 12:33 pm
It appears that the sample is comprised of far too many indies. Since Gallup polled GOP and GOP-leaning indies, around 40% of the sample is comprised of indies. Only in New Hampshire did indies comprise around that percentage in a GOP primary. Indies were around 20% in every other primary if I recall correctly.
Of course, the problem with the Kos poll was that it didn’t poll any indies but just Republicans.
So if you balance out Palin (+5 in a poll with no indies) and Romney (+3 in a poll with too many indies), you probably end up with a dead heat.
In any event, Zombie Reagan looks to be the runaway favorite as both the Kos and Gallup poll found 42% somehow undecided.
February 11th, 2010 at 12:38 pm
If one actually clicks on the link, it gives even more information. Interestingly, Romney gets 15% of conservative Republicans AS WELL AS a considerable amount of moderate voters. Palin only gets 14% of conservatives and a very very small number of moderates. This point is very clear. Romney is the big tent candidate while Palin only has the hard base support. (Similar to Huckabee in 2008) I think we should follow Reagan’s philosophy and make a big tent party that holds true to conservative principles while also appealing to moderate independents. With this said, GO ROMNEY.
February 11th, 2010 at 12:39 pm
pablo where are you at in mexico? Spent a few years living and working in parts of mexico with the last span being in Cozumel working. I was glad the panistas won and specifically that they defeated the PRD in the last elections.
February 11th, 2010 at 12:43 pm
Good point Tommy Boy. However, even though the average of the polling puts Mrs. Palin in good shape (on her Birthday BTW,) I fear the Mr. Romney would have about 45% of the delegate and Mrs. Palin would have about 37%. Fortunately, we still have a chance to catch up on the delegate count since nobody voted yet.
February 11th, 2010 at 12:45 pm
So you start from a bad sample, and continue working your self down, as a test of the headwinds this administration is facing it’s ok , as a gauge of anything else it’s substandard
February 11th, 2010 at 12:46 pm
I think the vast majority of the “undecideds” are actually “I don’t have a clue” voters. Only news here is bad for Huckabee and OK for Palin and Romney. That said the the WaPo poll also on r42012 doesn’t bode well for Palin.
February 11th, 2010 at 12:51 pm
OJ, would you mind telling us which states you think AKReport is wrong in predicting Palin beating Mitt pretty handily?
February 11th, 2010 at 12:52 pm
Who’ll be the GOP nominee that has the Rick Pitino moment with the 42%: Ronald Reagan is not walking through that door!
February 11th, 2010 at 1:00 pm
“Palin has lost ground among conservative Republicans, who would be crucial to her hopes if she seeks the party’s presidential nomination in 2012. Forty-five percent of conservatives now consider her as qualified for the presidency, down sharply from 66 percent who said so last fall.”
The more exposure Palin has, the more she falls with this group! This has nothing to do with the sample dispersion….this is conservatives!!
February 11th, 2010 at 1:09 pm
Haha, IG, Well, I actually do not have time to get into a contest and to a degree, My figures are partly a guess comparing recent regional numbers to state numbers last time which is a bit difficult to do because Mrs. Palin did not run last time and Mr. Romney (and Mr. Huckabee) exited before every state voted. However, here is my breif summuary:
North East, Mr. Romney the delegate race by a 2 to 1 margin.
Midwest, essentially a tie, Mr. Romney racks up delegates in IL, MO and MN among others, Mrs. Palin does well in Ohio, Wisconsin and Indiana, Mr. Huckabee take Kansas.
South, Mrs. Palin wins by a two one margin in delegate, Mr. Romney take FL and Georgia (not all the delegates) Mr. Huckabee wins AR and Alabama, Mrs. Palin at least does well elsewhere.
West, although the popular vote is competative Mr. Romney wins the delegates by a 3 to 1 margin by sweepin Utah, Montana, Colorado and Arizona and getting most delegates in California.
However, I do not know how many delegates each state is entitled to next time.
February 11th, 2010 at 1:09 pm
“Palin has lost ground among conservative Republicans, who would be crucial to her hopes if she seeks the party’s presidential nomination in 2012. Forty-five percent of conservatives now consider her as qualified for the presidency, down sharply from 66 percent who said so last fall.”
I don’t buy this poll one bit.
I’ll wait for more polls.
February 11th, 2010 at 1:11 pm
Palin will need to do a few things to improve qualification numbers.
1.Traval To places like isreal,Iraq,GB,France (etc)
2.2nd book on policy.
3.Use her Fox gig to promote conservative ideas.
4.Do well in the 2012 debates.<– Most important
February 11th, 2010 at 1:11 pm
Sorry for my poor spelling and such.
February 11th, 2010 at 1:18 pm
Reply to 56: Okay, I buy you analysis, but that would give Romney a large lead (btw: Texas probable goes to Huckabee, but will split some what among the three.
February 11th, 2010 at 1:25 pm
Romney is not skipping the south – http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/2012-watch-romney-and-south
February 11th, 2010 at 1:32 pm
Haha, I am not sure I buy my own analysis yet, I would like a few more polls first. It also would not hurt to find out how many delegates each state will get, so I have to go last time’s figures.
February 11th, 2010 at 1:34 pm
“but that would give Romney a large lead” Without getting into a state by state contest, you do know that the South has more than twice as many delegates than the North East?
February 11th, 2010 at 1:34 pm
OJ,
How does your projection work with the Kos numbers?
February 11th, 2010 at 1:40 pm
With Kos numbers alone and not using the two Southern polls, Mrs. Palin would get about 47% of the delegates and Mr. Romney would get about 33%. The main change between the two projection is that under KOS figures alone, Mrs. Palin would destroy Mr. Romney in the South instead of just winning 2 to 1. She would win narrowly in the Midwest and close the gap a bit in on the cost, but in short, what the KOS poll alone allows Mr. Palin to do is clean the South.
February 11th, 2010 at 1:41 pm
OJ,
I think it’s tricky to guess delegates that way because it assumes the same dynamics of the primary race in 2008 when the dynamics could be dramatically different with all but two of our potential nominees being completely new to the primary process.
February 11th, 2010 at 1:43 pm
True Tommy Boy, that is why I told Thunder tongue and cheek that I do not totally trust my own numbers 100%, but it is the bes guess given the numbers I do have.
February 11th, 2010 at 1:48 pm
Not if you add the West to the North East, California has more delegates than all the south combined (expect Texas). Add to that Florida, and thats a lot of Delegates.
February 11th, 2010 at 1:50 pm
Also, Ohio Joe, different states divide Delegates differently. For instance, in California, its possible to sweep the majority of the Delegates with only a small margin of victory, while Texas divides it rather evenly. So, winning California is more important than winning Texas.
February 11th, 2010 at 1:52 pm
Yes the West combined with the Northeast has more delegates than the South, but just barely.
February 11th, 2010 at 1:59 pm
True Thunder, and as such it is difficult to estimate delegates in the first place, many states like my own and CA give 3 points to the winner of each CD and the rest go to the state winner. In Texas, if nobody gets 50%, the delegates are split proportionatelt both at the state and CD level. I did my best to allow for this, For example, the winner will not take all delegates in GA, MD, WI, MI and IN among others, but will in Utah, NY, VA and CO.
February 11th, 2010 at 2:00 pm
[...] going through the details of the recent Gallup Poll mentioned below, I came across this little gem: Whereas conservative (15%) and moderate or liberal (14%) [...]
February 11th, 2010 at 2:02 pm
Romney doesn’t need to win the south, him simply needs to place well (see your 71 above). He already showed he could do well in Georgia. I think he can do well in Texas as long its a multiple person race. Also, don’t forget NJ, is a winner take all now, thanks to Rudy.
February 11th, 2010 at 2:03 pm
OJ – for a rough read of general strength, what you’ve said is as defendable as any other scenario. That said, two things will impact even this reading: timing/momentum of when each of those primaries are held and who is still standing at that time, and the winner take all primaries of the northeast. If you think that we probably have only 2 or 3 strong candidates (operationally and financially) after by the end of the first 5 contests, and a few more candidates hoping for a miracle, those 2 factors become very powerful in determining the eventual winner.
February 11th, 2010 at 2:07 pm
However, if Romney can pull out a win in Iowa, its over (which is do able). As he will then take NH.
February 11th, 2010 at 2:12 pm
Yes Thunder, Mr. Romney can afford to lose the South by a 2 to 1 margin, but losing it by a 6 to 1 margin would be a different story. Yes, I am aware that Mr. Romney will probably win NJ, but I still think that Mrs. Palin has a shot a some WTA state and (or) she could do quite well delegate wise in states that are not WTA (in part because of at large delegates for many of such states. BTW, I have admited that Mr. Romney could win Georgia.
And yes, AZ, we do not know how many 2 tier candidates there will be and momentum will change things, but as of now, we have what we have.
February 11th, 2010 at 2:15 pm
‘Obama is a socialist. Nationalized health care is a socialist program…’
Nope, he’s not. His biggest problem right now is not governing as he campaigned – center left.
And Medicare is socialized medicine. Do you advocate getting rid of Medicare? You think that’s going to fly with the majority of Americans? Thought not.
February 11th, 2010 at 2:15 pm
Yes that is doable Thunder, but a lot of other senarios are also doable.
February 11th, 2010 at 3:11 pm
at this point we don’t really know who the candidates are. In fact, I have my doubts if either Huckabee or Palin will run. In 2011, we may be talking about Romney vs Pawlenty, but its all guess work at this time.
February 11th, 2010 at 3:15 pm
Haha we may even be talking Daniels versus Johnson.
February 11th, 2010 at 4:17 pm
I just know the man with the best credentials is Mitt Romney…Is he perfect?? Who is????? He is by far more capable, well spoken, leader, smart, and a great American….Make sure you do your homework, not pass gossip and half truths…. this election cycle…We have more than ever at stake this next election….Watch the walk, what has the person accomplished????…Has he been a good role model, and the company he keeps…..many were gullible last election…You got hope and change alright…My pockets are jingling, bout yours? Romney has humility and is a humble man…Not a gloating person…a worker, and a serious doer…Mitt would be a great President…. the best….Personally, I share with you…meet this man….You Must…
February 11th, 2010 at 7:26 pm
This is not a big national poll that means anything because it is ALL based on name recognition, not which Republican candidate is the top one. Look at McCain and Brown…we all know they won’t be running. People have heard more about Romney and Palin, but that doesn’t mean that if they had a choice of all the Republican candidates, they would be the ones leading this poll.
No, the last three polls have been just like this one, skewed by name recognition, not who would be the top candidate. I guarantee you Huckabee would be at the top or very close to it if all the names had been given. So for you Huck haters, you will just have to wait for REAL national polls that list all the candidates before we can declare Huckabee to have dropped so much. He is much more popular than just in Alabama and Arkansas…wishful thinking on your part. Let’s wait and see, shall we?
February 13th, 2010 at 11:21 am
Nominate Ron Paul or I and millions more will vote third party again.