While going through the details of the recent Gallup Poll mentioned below, I came across this little gem:
Whereas conservative (15%) and moderate or liberal (14%) Republicans are about equally likely to mention Romney as their preferred nominee, Palin is much more likely to be mentioned by conservatives (14%) than by moderates and liberals (3%). Conservatives generally outnumber moderates and liberals by about 2 to 1 within the Republican Party.
If I am reading that information correctly, it translates to this:
| Conservatives | Non-Conservatives | |
| Romney | 15% | 14% |
| Palin | 14% | 3% |
While Mitt Romney and Sarah Palin are virtually tied with conservative Republicans, Mitt is just as popular with moderate and liberal Republicans as he is with conservatives. Sarah, on the other hand, barely registers with anyone other than conservative Republicans. This has to be an advantage for Mitt in both the primaries and the general election. If Gallup is right about Mitt being just as popular with the conservative Republicans as Palin but blowing her away with everyone else (a big “if”), and if that disparity holds through 2012 (an even bigger “if”), that has to place Palin at a distinct disadvantage against Mitt Romney if both should choose to run for the Presidency in 2012.
February 11th, 2010 at 2:05 pm
Well MarK, in short, I admit that your tent is a little bigger than mine and I am OK with that for two reasons. first the moderates in our are more tolerant of main stream Conservatism and secondly, since my camp is more Conservative on balance, we have a slightly better chance of appealing to the ultra-Conservatives. BTW, I am glad that you do have Conservatives in your camp just in case you do win.
February 11th, 2010 at 2:10 pm
Yes, Romney’s tent is bigger. He has positions on social issues which provide him with solid appeal to Conservatives, yet he has a wealth of expeirence and a background which make moderates more inclined to support him. That could be key this cycle, with the lack of an actual race on the Democratic side.
February 11th, 2010 at 2:25 pm
No one really knows Romney’s ceiling in a general election. Against a democrat, the GOP base easily rallies around Romney, but what is more interesting, is how many independents and moderates he’ll attract. History (governer of Mass) and polls like this indicate he will do quite well. Palin, on the otherhand, has a pretty hard ceiling, which is made all the more apparent every time a new poll comes out.
In short, we know pretty much where Palin in a general election comes up. With Romney, the sky’s the limit.
February 11th, 2010 at 2:26 pm
just wait till Palin zings him a few times with her charismatic, death-blow sarcasm. (abortion flip-flop and romneycare). his support with conservatives will fall pretty fast.
Palin sucks all the air out of the building. by the 2012 debates it will be hard for romney win. Palin has time on her side, and I bet Romney wishes the nomination was held today.
February 11th, 2010 at 2:30 pm
Romney’s expeirence and knowledge on economic matters, and a family history that is actually much cleaner than Palin’s should allow him to run circles around her.
On a stage by herself, Palin doesn’t look bad at all. On a stage with more experienced politicos, she looks like the small town mayor running in the majors that she is. “You betcha” is not a particularly strong response to Romney railing off his economic accomplishments in the private sector, or his fix of the MASS budget.
February 11th, 2010 at 2:33 pm
lol hey there baghdad Bob er I mean AK.
February 11th, 2010 at 2:33 pm
WSU
Have you seen her 2006 debates?
February 11th, 2010 at 2:36 pm
2006? or 2008?
February 11th, 2010 at 2:38 pm
marK, I appreciate your post and I understand how you would come to that conclusion. Unfortunately, you sabotaged your own hypothesis, that Romney is as popular with Conservatives as Palin is by including, in parenthesis, “(a big “if”.)”
The fact is that this is a descent poll for both Romney and Palin but given the extenuating circumstances, the inclusion of both McCain and Brown not to mention McDonnell, Thompson and Jindal…the latter of whose support would most likely go to Palin. And then Huckabee polling so low, points to this poll being a bit…wrong.
Since Huckabee and Palin are already sharing the same voting block…I am lead to believe that Romney is actually holding some of Huckabee’s actual support. Just a theory but one I think is highly possible.
February 11th, 2010 at 2:40 pm
5 – a family history of priviledge vs. everyday American? In 2012…everyday American will win every time.
February 11th, 2010 at 2:41 pm
MarK,
Here’s where’s it’s not clear. I think conservative “Republicans” really means conservative Republican and conservative Republican-leaning indies.
Republicans in Gallup’s mind means Republicans and Republican-leaning indies.
This distinction makes a difference because Republican-leaning indies comprise close to 40% of Gallup’s Republican respondents.
Independents, whether conservative or moderate or liberal, will more than likely not comprise any more than 25% of the primary electorate in any state other than New Hampshire.
February 11th, 2010 at 2:42 pm
lol hey there baghdad Bob er I mean AK.
you know I am right. Palin wins the nomination if she is the only women runing. She steals the spotlight, and can give a pretty good knock out punch in debates.
2006
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122281636354892281.html
“you know Alaskans deserve a better discourse then this.”
February 11th, 2010 at 2:44 pm
Sarah Palin can’t debate.
February 11th, 2010 at 2:45 pm
Palin has no chance at being president. She has been damaged so greatly by the ‘stupid’ lable that it would be impossible for her to get the independents and other she would need to win. the average person thinks she is stupid.
She is not competent enough to be president. She definitely has her place in our party but I sure wouldn’t want her in charge of our military or dealing with the leaders of other nations. No way.
February 11th, 2010 at 2:46 pm
Agreed. 100 percent.
February 11th, 2010 at 2:56 pm
jersey , you mention where you see the support of the last three going, where do you see the support of Mccain and Brown going?
February 11th, 2010 at 2:58 pm
14 – I agree, somewhat, with your first paragraph. She has endured a very damaging PR campaign against her.
Your second paragraph I cannot agree with. She does have the chance at turning public opinion around…with the average voter. Since her resignation, which was supposed to be the final nail in her coffin…she made few mistakes and zero major ones.
If she continues on this path and continues with the media spotlight she could turn it around but she definitely has the biggest uphill climb than any possible candidate.
February 11th, 2010 at 3:05 pm
16 – good question, I meant to mention that but I forgot. Probably the bulk of the support from Brown and McCain would be divided between Romney, Pawlenty and Palin…maybe even Gingrich…if he even runs, which history tells otherwise. Probably the majority of it going to Romney.
The 10% going to “other” makes me believe that their suppor lies with Barbour, Johnson and Daniels but the real big number is the none/no opinion…those people will decide the primary and those people are the ones who aren’t paying attention right now. Basically with that 42%, every candidate has a clean slate.
February 11th, 2010 at 3:06 pm
“The fact is that this is a descent poll for both Romney and Palin but given the extenuating circumstances, the inclusion of both McCain and Brown not to mention McDonnell, Thompson and Jindal…the latter of whose support would most likely go to Palin”
I totally disagree with that. I am sure that Mitt gets the majority of all those, with the possible exception of Thompson voters. As a matter of fact I don’t think Palin will get many voters at all from the group you listed.
February 11th, 2010 at 3:06 pm
10. Now there’s an interesting aspect. People have all sorts of reasons for voting for whom they vote, many not all that rational. I wonder to what extent the families, upbringing, perception of privilege, out of touch with real life, etc. could play a role in people’s minds as they begin to decide whom to vote for.
February 11th, 2010 at 3:07 pm
AKReport,#4:“just wait till Palin zings him a few times with her charismatic, death-blow sarcasm. …”
Boy does that sound familiar. All during 2007 and into early 2008 MetroRepublican (now MetroIndependent) kept saying on this very board that as soon as Rudy “really” started to campaign, all his opposition would be demolished. Giuliani had it in the bag.
It didn’t exactly turn out that way, did it? So why should 2012 be any different?
February 11th, 2010 at 3:08 pm
John Galt, Adam
1. what happens when obama finds himself in an energy crisis like jimmy carter? don’t you think Palin would do well when gas skyrockets to 5$ a gal?
2. by Underestimating Palin or calling her “stupid” you only lower expectations, and that gives her an edge come debate time to “wow the crowd” with a solid debate preformance. given her charismatic status among conservative men, any attack that seems out of line or to harsh will backfire on romney/huckabee 10 times as much then it would against a male politico.
my best advice for Romney is to be as nice as possible to sarah palin in the debates, or ignore her as much as possible.
February 11th, 2010 at 3:09 pm
jersey,
Don’t fall into the Pauline Kael trap who famously said after Nixon won re-election in 1972, “How could he have won? I don’t know anybody who voted for him.”
February 11th, 2010 at 3:15 pm
It seems to me that Romney’s appeal to moderates and non-conservatives may come from the lack of a moderate alternative. In 2008 we had Rudy and McCain as viable moderate to compete with Romney. As of now, there just aren’t any other moderate candidates to draw those votes away from Romney.
February 11th, 2010 at 3:15 pm
23 – with all due respect…and I do respect you, I think that’s why I question you so much in your posts, but which comment of mine did I, supposedly, fall into that trap?
February 11th, 2010 at 3:16 pm
“what happens when obama finds himself in an energy crisis like jimmy carter? don’t you think Palin would do well when gas skyrockets to 5$ a gal?”
Do you mean the Palin that claimed Alaska supplies 20% of the USA’s energy requirements, when it is actually 2-3%? And this is the topic she knows most about!!
February 11th, 2010 at 3:17 pm
I really have no idea why some people are so adamantly opposed to Romney. Likewise, the way some people praise Sarah Palin reminds me of the power the brought Obama to power.
Really, how can the Republicans match Palin against Obama. Seriously, she doesn’t have that much more executive experience than he. On top of that, he’ll have four years as President. What will Palin have. Some people need to take off the rosy glasses and seriously look at Palin. A powerful spokesperson and advocate, yes. A U.S. president in the short term, no.
February 11th, 2010 at 3:17 pm
22,
Sarah Palin bragged about “sticking it to the oil companies”. IF gas goes to $5 a gallon then Trig would be able to outdebate Obama on the subject.
Palin isn’t going to be able to wow the crowd in a debate with Romney or even Huckabee. She is very light on substance. She couldn’t debate Biden and refused to answer questions. The only reason that some people rallied to her defense is because they were spouting the party line. She won’t get that kind of help when she is up against other Republicans. She’s actually going to have to perform. She hasn’t been able to do it in the 1 1/4 years she’s been on the national scene. Why should we think she can do it now?
February 11th, 2010 at 3:18 pm
19 – you raise an interesting point but I think at this time, that kind of support from those candidates is regional and not ideological…but even if it is ideological then it would have to be a split with Palin barely ahead.
February 11th, 2010 at 3:19 pm
And anyway there isn’t going to be an energy crisis as long as the economy remains in the dumps.
February 11th, 2010 at 3:20 pm
Jersey,
That would be #9 where you are assuming that most of the conservatives not aligned with Palin and Romney now will go Palin as the others drop out.
February 11th, 2010 at 3:20 pm
#30:
The economy stunk in the late 70′s and we ended up having an energy crisis along with it.
February 11th, 2010 at 3:23 pm
#29 – Romney campaigned tirelessly for McDonnell, and without Mitt, we wouldn’t know who Brown even is. Those guys haven’t forgotten that, and they will endorse Mitt. MANY of their constituents will go with the endorsement. They know their candidate asked Palin to stay at arms length.
February 11th, 2010 at 3:23 pm
32,
Touche. But unemployment wasn’t then what it is now. I just don’t see it. I could be wrong.
February 11th, 2010 at 3:23 pm
“Do you mean the Palin that claimed Alaska supplies 20% of the USA’s energy requirements, when it is actually 2-3%? And this is the topic she knows most about!!”
the was talking about if we open up ANWR. She was talking about the potential 20%.
February 11th, 2010 at 3:24 pm
She*
February 11th, 2010 at 3:27 pm
31 – it wasn’t about the others dropping out…it’s about them never running. McCain will not run. Brown will not run Thompson will not run. McDonnell will not run. Jindal will not run. So when you take them out of the mix you have to look at who would be supporting them at this time. Mostly regional voters from their respective states and/or Law and Order fans. That’s why I said this poll is wrong because there are way too many candidates that will not be running, IMO, and a few that weren’t mentioned that probably will…Barbour, Johnson and Daniels…again in my opinion. But like I said earlier the biggest, most important number is the “none/no opinion” one. Either these are uninformed voters…average voters or they don’t like anyone…if that’s the case then I would suspect a 2nd tier candidate to come in and possibly take the whole thing.
February 11th, 2010 at 3:30 pm
SARAH PALIN IS NOT PRESIDENTIAL MATERIAL
Sarah Palin Is Not Vice-Presidential Material
Sarah Palin Is Not Senatorial Material
Sarah Palin Is Not Political Material
February 11th, 2010 at 3:30 pm
“IF gas goes to $5 a gallon then Trig would be able to outdebate Obama on the subject.”
1. Palin could highlight her qualifications that Romney/Huckabee clearly lacks when it comes to Energy policy.
a. She would become the overwhelming front runner if Gas hit 4-5$.
2.leave trig alone, punk.
February 11th, 2010 at 3:31 pm
33 – if voters are actually backing Brown, McDonnell or even Thompson then they aren’t paying too much attention to politics so who supported who or who will endorse who is kind of menaingless…IMO.
February 11th, 2010 at 3:33 pm
39 – I don’t think he was, necessarily, knocking Trig…I think he was saying, in that scenario, it wouldn’t matter because Obama would lose to anyone.
February 11th, 2010 at 3:33 pm
I agree that the none/no opinion block of voters is the most important, but I don’t see Palin picking up many that are not already with her. Except for those on race4, her supporters are even seeing the light and moving elsewhere. It seems that once you have argued so vehemently for so long on here, it makes it hard to drop support. Others not so time invested are choosing other candidates.
February 11th, 2010 at 3:34 pm
#37:
As you said, there are candidates who won’t be running, but also more who will throw their hats in the ring. At this point, the GOP field is so fractured that practically anyone could take the nomination.
February 11th, 2010 at 3:35 pm
I see you are playing the Class Warfare card again, but for the record. If you look at Romney’s history,
he made it his own way. Gradute at the Top at his Class at BYU, the Graduated top at his Class at Harvard.
Started on the Bottom, and worked his way up. How is Palin making her Millions? Selling Books based on the fact that McCain tapped her as his VP.
Frankly, I relate a lot more to Romney than I would ever to Palin. I find Romney is the hard worker, the more intelligent, the more successful. In short, Romney is living the American Dream. He didn’t inherit his money, he got it the old fashion way, he earned it through hard work and success. For one thing he never quit, but worked to turn around just about every bad situation he ran into.
February 11th, 2010 at 3:37 pm
I’m not sure I agree with you that there is no place in politics or the Senate for Sarah Palin. It’s true she doesn’t know much yet, but lots of rookie Senators are not yet that knowledgeable. She would be amongst those least informed, yes, but I think she could represent her state ok. The realize she is not nearly as popular as the other lady in her state (who is never mentioned for President btw), but of course, the other lady isn’t nearly as pretty either.
February 11th, 2010 at 3:37 pm
41,
Yeah. People get touchy about that. I actually forgot that Trig was the handicapped one (I thought it was Track) but it only further makes my point.
February 11th, 2010 at 3:38 pm
35 – even if she wasn’t talking about ANWR, which I am not so sure she was. She was taking the 14+ percent of oil supply and then adding on the 2-3% of natural gas to equal about 17%. She was playing with the numbers. Illinois just likes to find one fact check he can nail down people’s throats but he never mention Romney’s fact checks.
February 11th, 2010 at 3:40 pm
Not my job jersey
February 11th, 2010 at 3:42 pm
Actually, I think the smartest thing I think Sarah could do is go back and run for the Senate for Stevens old seat. Get some experience, then later try her hand at Presidential politics. She needs to show that she can actually fulfill her term at something, instead of quitting in less than half of her term.
February 11th, 2010 at 3:42 pm
I would prefer to think she didn’t know the numbers, rather than think she was lying about them.
February 11th, 2010 at 3:42 pm
Many of you are acting like all this very early exposure will help her, when she was already on a General Election ticket and still has a huge problem looking competent and act like the lower exposure Romney has chosen is bad for him. I would disagree, we are light years away from the primaries and over exposure is not something I would want, especially if I was Palin and bound to keep looking not smart, which will eventually hurt her more with conservatives, especially in the serious context of a Presidential campaign, when peoples feelings tend to be more careful and make the right choice.
Being the front runner means not a lot and if Romney pops up a few times as clearly the front runner I would say the same thing and tell him to lay low a little.
I would also beg to differ on someone saying Palin has made no mistakes since she quit Governor. Shes making all kinds of mistakes and starting to look more like an insider than anything, who just wants to strke her ego and be President.
February 11th, 2010 at 3:43 pm
Thunder, Iam not playing class warfare. I don’t care who you or anybody else wants to vote for or support. I support Palin. I am not under any impression that my posts on this site will influence anyone to vote or not vote for any specific candidate.
I never said that Romney wasn’[t a hard worker but he obviously benefitted from his family’s connections and/or money. He did well with what he was given…so did Palin.
I was merely referring to public perception.
February 11th, 2010 at 3:44 pm
48 – then don’t get mad when others mention Romney’s fact checks…it’s a two-way street you know.
February 11th, 2010 at 3:45 pm
50 – in either scenario you will attempt to make her look bad…so what’s the difference?
February 11th, 2010 at 3:46 pm
That’s not the way it came across, and you can support your candidate without taking unfair swipes at other candidates. And I don’t think the public perception is what you think it is. Maybe for some, but not most. Most see a person who has taken on hard jobs and has been successful.
February 11th, 2010 at 3:47 pm
22. I have to agree with AKReport on this one. I was wondering why a few weeks ago Romney volunteered Palin’s name when asked about Republicans he thought were doing a good job. Whether or not you like Palin, you have to admit that she has a following and that her followers would jump right off a cliff if she asked them to. What happens if there is a tough primary battle between Palin and Romney and Romney wins? What will the Palin supporters do then? They are going to be as angry as hell that an “outsider” did not win. They are going to claim that the Republican establishment rigged the election and a lot of them will sit out. Am I right or wrong Palin fans?
I think it would be in Romney’s interest not to attack Palin too much. Her followers are needed to win a general election.
February 11th, 2010 at 3:47 pm
My thought is that Palin is unserious. Even if she managed to be elected President, she would command almost no respect, much like Obama doesn’t. And do know why? Because they BOTH have this terrible habit of getting involved in petty little fights with their detractors (which is why bloggers love them!). Obama and Palin seem to be incapable of remaining above the fray and just IGNORING their critics or just staying quiet for 5 minutes. Obama and Palin provide endless fodder for both sides becasue they just can’t help it! Palin has the unprecedented attention of every media outlet on the planet and how does she choose to use it? By whining about the use of the world “retarded” and slamming Levi for his upcoming nude photo shoot. The world is watching and that’s what she wants us to hear? Being elected is only half the battle which Obama is learning now. Getting to the WhiteHouse by painting your opposition as idiotic/evil/elite/ and wooing the voters with catchy zingers will make you a lame duck in your FIRST term. Just ask Obama. I bet he’d do anything to have the freedom Palin has to spend her days sticking it to Democrats with the encouragement of thousands of adoring fans. And why wouldn’t he? That’s the same route he took to become President. And where did that get us?
February 11th, 2010 at 3:48 pm
So which sample were they using there, adults or registered voters, so you start there, and you malapportion the votes. One thing I would like is an open ended poll what do they really know about
her. I’d be willing to bet there’s a lot of Fey and Couric’s interview, in that backwash.
February 11th, 2010 at 3:48 pm
55 – I barely ever take unfair swipes at Romney and when I do it IS based on marketing and perception…which makes them fair, or just a tit-for-tat with the Romney supporters.
February 11th, 2010 at 3:50 pm
56 – All I can say about that post is that I WILL NOT JUMP OFF A CLIFF IF PALIN ASKS ME TOO!!! But maybe that scenario should be addressed to the supporters from other camps as well? Why are the Palin supporters always the “crazy cultists?”
February 11th, 2010 at 3:52 pm
60 Did you watch the Tea Party convention?
February 11th, 2010 at 3:52 pm
You may think that, but this is not the first time I have responded to one of your unfair comments. And frankly, what Market and Perception? That is in your own mind. I certainly don’t think that. I know Huckabee tried to paint Romney as an elitist, but that didn’t work. In fact, it back fired on him. So, if you don’t want someone pointing out how you are acting like a liberal Democrat would, don’t do it. A tit-for-tat, just gets a tit-for-tat response. I have thought of a lot of things Palin reminds me of but have refrained from saying it, because it wouldn’t be right.
I for one think Palin is an okay Conservative, just not experienced enough to run for President at this time.
February 11th, 2010 at 3:53 pm
60 Don’t miss my original point. If Romney barely beats Palin in a primary, will Palin voters sit out the election because an “insider” won.
February 11th, 2010 at 4:01 pm
62 – you just imagine stuff…I never called Romney an elitist. I never actually attacked him. I said they come from different backgrounds and in 2012, Palin’s background may be more beneficial.
February 11th, 2010 at 4:03 pm
63 – I cannot take your original point seriously because you begin and end your comment with words like followers. I am a Palin supporter…just as you are a Romney supporter.
February 11th, 2010 at 4:05 pm
Sarah Palin led in 2 polls (Newsmax/Zogby and Daily Kos/Research 2000) and Mitt now is leading in the Gallup poll. What this shows me is that they are 1-2 and imho will flip-flop that position in the polls and Intrade as 2010 moves along. Argue about Palin all you want. She is here to stay.
However the 3 most revealing results of the Gallup poll were:
1) Obama is vulnerable. However much we on our side want to beat our chest and proclaim how good how candidate is or our ideas are, it does matter one iota if Obama is a surefire bet to be re-elected. That he is only polling 44-42 against a generic GOP candidate does portend well for 2010 and 2012.
2)How many are still undecided: 42%. This simply means that we are still early in the first quarter and anything can happen but again Romney and Palin look entrenched in either first or second spot.
3) This is now the 3rd straight poll that has shown Huckabee a “bottom feeder”. In addition Huck has sunk further on Intrade. I think we have to start to take seriously the narrative that the “clemency issue” may have hurt him. And imho he has to take his low poll numbers by his own party into account when deciding to run or not.
February 11th, 2010 at 4:08 pm
I am actually starting to get tired of coming on this site. It started as a conversation about marK’s post and an evaluation of the Gallup Poll, then certain people have to turn everything personal. It’s not personal…I don’t know Romney and I don’t know Palin. I support Palin, some of you support Romney. Am I not allowed to have an opinion if it goes against Romney or favors Palin? I am the first to admit Palin’s flaws and where, I think, she needs to strengthen yet I get attacked for giving an opinion about a post…this is getting boring guys! It’s only a blog…we’re not changing the political landscape.
February 11th, 2010 at 4:10 pm
Jersey:“Why are the Palin supporters always the “crazy cultists?””
Try being a Rombot for a while.
Seriously, to attempt to answer your question, take a closer look at comment #4. It is little different from those “Palin is exciting, Romney is boring” comments we get here all the time.
It might also have something to do with the Palin camp seeming to attract more than their fair share of the conspiracy kooks. If you believed half of what is written on C4P, you would be convinced that Mitt Romney is behind everything bad that has ever happened to Sarah Palin. If some Palin critic once spoke to the friend of a cousin to the man who empties the garbage of Ann Romney’s hairstylist, that is proof positive that Mitt is up to his old dirty tricks.
February 11th, 2010 at 4:10 pm
My 67 comment has nothing to do with specifically with the site, or the people who run it, or the FPPs. I thought I should give that disclaimer.
February 11th, 2010 at 4:14 pm
bob.#66,
Very good analysis. I agree practically 100%. Huckabee IS sinking.
Of course, there is still nearly two years before the first primaries and caucuses. Plenty of time to turn things around.
February 11th, 2010 at 4:14 pm
Obama has had the most positive press of anybody since FDR, even when they had to make it up most of the time. He has pursued manifestly disastrous policies in every sphere, and he is pushing for more.
Palin has gotten press that Slobodan Milosevic doesn’t get,since Aug 29th almost entirely distorted, the ethics compliants, there was nothing to them, the Fey garbage, the Couric marathon of attacks,
made possible by a campaign that chose to give up the fight, and these same people Schmidt and Wallace, provided self serving and ludicrous accounts, mostly anonymously, and later to fill up the pile of trash called Game Change. They gave up much like Romney gave up the fight, six months earlier. He had the money, he had the support of the right, You pile on her, fine, do you think anyone will save when the media turns their attention to Romney, we saw a little of that in the end days of the Scott Brown race
February 11th, 2010 at 4:15 pm
68 – the difference with this site and c4p is that c4p is a site designed to speak about Palin. This site is about the Presidential race and politics in general. I don’t belong to c4p because I don’t really see a need to talk to people about how great Palin is…I already like her. I, do, however learn a lot from this site. By both the FPP’s and the Commenters.
February 11th, 2010 at 4:16 pm
#67:
I think the word you are searching for is perspective. To completely discount someone like Palin who is either 1 or 2 in the polls, and on Fox News Sunday declared she would seriously consider running for the presidency is absurd.
Why there is not more focus on Huck’s plunge to the bottom in 3 separate polls is beyond me. This is the main theme running through these polls. What we should be now asking is whether Huck will rebound, or if he does not will he still run for POTUS and if he does not, where will his support go? Those are valid questions.
But to devote needless time to disdain Palin or hold her in contempt or claim she is an moron or a political lightweight based on the current evidence is simply wishful thinking or delusional outbursts worthy of Obamatots or drones and not for the intelligent and rational folks who support our side.
February 11th, 2010 at 4:19 pm
Palin will need to do a 5 things to improve qualification numbers.
1.Traval To places like isreal,Iraq,GB,France (etc)
2.2nd book on policy.
3.Use her Fox gig to promote conservative ideas.
4. Rematch interview with Katie Cougar
5.Do well in the 2012 debates.<– Most important.
February 11th, 2010 at 4:21 pm
Jersey:“I, do, however learn a lot from this site. By both the FPP’s and the Commenters.”
I fully agree, which is why I keep coming back here. Yes, we upon occasion get a little personal, but it is nothing like the other general sites I’ve visited. RedState and HotAir are two of the biggest. We are the picture of decorum compared to those sites.
February 11th, 2010 at 4:22 pm
68 – btw, I do see your point…I don’t entirely agree with it because Palin supporters are considered both crazy and stupid and definitely receive the majority of the criticisms on this site. Which is fine, I’m a big boy…but some people should learn how to take what they give!
February 11th, 2010 at 4:23 pm
#74.AKReport,
One more thing:
#6 Stop playing the victim card so much.
February 11th, 2010 at 4:24 pm
#76,
Hmmmm. I would disagree with you and say that Romney supporters get the most grief here.
Funny how that works out.
February 11th, 2010 at 4:25 pm
#76:
I am a Palin supporter and neither am I crazy or stupid.
February 11th, 2010 at 4:29 pm
73 – I see your point about Huck, but to discredit him now is to discredit PPP, which has been the only consistent poll we have to follow. Which is the outlier? I think there are too many factors in this Gallup poll that make it questionable. Don’t get me wrong I’d be more than happy to bleed some of Huckabee’s support but I think it’s a little premature.
I’m actually not sure why there isn’t a poll that only includes the most likely candidates…at this point: Romney, Huckabee, Palin and Pawlenty…then also an, other, category and a, no opinion.
February 11th, 2010 at 4:31 pm
78 – there goes Bob’s point about perspective. Romney supporters might get “grief” but from my perspective you don’t get called both crazy and stupid in the same sentence…maybe misguided but not crazy or stupid.
February 11th, 2010 at 4:36 pm
This poll definitely suggests that Romney is the guy with upward potential. Mitt will put states into contention that haven’t gone Republican in decades. With the Democrats weak and the backlash against deficits and waste building, who better than a candidate who really understands the economy and what is wrong with it?
BTW, there isn’t anything wrong with Sarah aside from the fact that she isn’t presidential. Romney would crush her in a debate, and I really would rather that she focus on the Senate or running the Tea Party Movement, simply because I like her. I really wouldn’t want to see her feelings get hurt.
February 11th, 2010 at 4:38 pm
62 – to add…a major portion of Obama’s support, from my stand point, in 2008 was due to an amazing marketing campaign and the perception, average, voters had of either Obama or the Republicans.
This is the biggest obstacle Palin will have in the general…if she gets the nomination. A MSM that’s against her and overcoming perceptions that she’s stupid.
Now, in the primaries perception can be in her favor but it doesn’t neccesarily mean that she will win the nomination…just saying that they could help her.
February 11th, 2010 at 4:38 pm
“I am a Palin supporter and neither am I crazy or stupid.”
you’re probably not, but how would you know if you were?
February 11th, 2010 at 4:40 pm
82 – I appreciate your opinion but there really is no evidence that Romney will “crush” her in the debates. Only time will tell.
February 11th, 2010 at 4:40 pm
Because that is not the purpose of the poll, to gauge the truth, or else they would use a proper sample. Romney people get the most grief, right, tell me another one. Rasmussen is possibly the most reliable pollster over time, Gallup and PPP generally follow, then MSNBC, CBS, Fox, over all
February 11th, 2010 at 4:43 pm
62. Thunder Says:
“I know Huckabee tried to paint Romney as an elitist, but that didn’t work. In fact, it back fired on him.”
In what way did it backfire on him?
February 11th, 2010 at 4:49 pm
First of all Hamaca, nobody really wanted to vote for Huck after Romney dropped out. He lost big time and I think his stunning obsession with Mitt Romney and trying to destroy Mitt, when many saw Romney as the one to be Pres, did hurt Huck, AT LEAST AT THAT TIME!!!!
I was wondering what some thoughts are on the Tea Party possibly helping Dems in the 2010 races and if they did in some as they did in the special election in New York, would they wake up and realize they will guarantee Obama in 2012 and help Dems???
February 11th, 2010 at 5:03 pm
Chris Cillizza of the WAPO is currently onducting a 2012 presidential poll:
http://voices.washingtonpost.com/thefix/fix-poll/who-will-be-the-2012-republica.html
February 11th, 2010 at 5:04 pm
Max Twain is going to have a tough decision to make this week with his rankings. It’s probably the closest one he’s had to make yet.
February 11th, 2010 at 5:06 pm
The Sarah Palin Surge (and why it’s overblown)
by Chris Cillizza
http://voices.washingtonpost.com/thefix/eye-on-2012/the-palin-boomlet-and-why-its.html
February 11th, 2010 at 5:10 pm
First, I think the MSM has an interest in boosting Palin, and keeping her as the face of the party.
Second, if Palin runs, I think she will get the most attention at the debates. Remember when Huck would say a funny line or 2 in the debates? He got more attention than his answers really deserved. Romney and Rudy were by far the best in all the debates, but often the headline would be about Huck.
Palin will be able to do the same thing because she is more likely to say something unconventional and “rogue”. Whatever else you may say about her, she’s an expert at getting attention.
February 11th, 2010 at 5:12 pm
Romney will win the liberal Republican vote, which is about 10-15% of the vote in a Republican primary.
But conservatives are smart enough to stay away.
February 11th, 2010 at 5:15 pm
Biden says he doesn’t fear Palin — ‘I like her’
http://voices.washingtonpost.com/44/2010/02/biden-says-he-doesnt-fear-pali.html
February 11th, 2010 at 5:16 pm
Why will nobody take the bait on Huckabee?
February 11th, 2010 at 5:17 pm
Jersey,
It’s true that Sarah and Mitt have never debated head to head, but if you’ve ever seen either debating ANYbody else, it’s prettty easy to extrapolate the result. Mitt has the twin advantages over Sarah of being more rational and having a superior knowledge base. Sarah has star power, but like most celebrities, she’s relatively shallow—she’s not in Romney’s class.
February 11th, 2010 at 5:20 pm
I think what we are witnessing here is Governor Palin focusing on her base which is text book campaigning. You secure and anchor down your base first as the Governor did with her Tea Party speech and then you branch out and begin appealing to the middle. Governor Palin knows that her first task is to secure Primary wins (specifically in IA and SC to begin with) then she will taylor her message to the various constituencies. Reagan was a master of this strategy and Governor Palin seems to be following in his footsteps with this tried and true approach while at the same time innovating her communications operation to adapt to new technologies, 24 hour media cycle, the inter web and social networking.
February 11th, 2010 at 5:20 pm
Happy 46th, Sarah! May you have another 46 happy, healthy and prosperous years — up in Wasilla.
February 11th, 2010 at 5:21 pm
Was that before or after he disputed the likelihood of an AQ attack in the near future. See this is the the thing he is taken seriously despite his plagiarism, his involvement in the subprime market,
his terrible track record on foreign policy, the partition of Iraq being just one, that hallucination
about Hezbollah in the debate, his proposing the FISA law, which handcuffed US intelligence for a generation, the VAWA law that was struck down by the Supreme Court. This is who they give credit to,
February 11th, 2010 at 5:22 pm
Dave:“Mitt has the … advantage over Sarah of being more rational…”
Hokey Smokes, Bullwinkle!
I hope your asbestos underwear is in good repair, Dave. You’re going to need it.
February 11th, 2010 at 5:27 pm
bob.#95,
I was wondering the same thing. Is Huckabee slowly but surely sinking into the west? His PAC, after all, had truly anemic numbers compared to everyone else — even Pawlenty’s. The last few National polls show him trailing Palin and Romney rather badly.
True, he had good numbers in that recent Alabama (or was it Georgia?) poll, but that was only a localized story. When was the last time Huckabee had some decent national news?
February 11th, 2010 at 5:28 pm
Current standing in the WAPO poll:
Sarah Palin 41%
Mitt Romney 25%
None of the abov 14%
John Thune 10%
Tim Pawlenty 7%
Mike Huckabee 2%
Newt Gingrich 1%
1010 votes
February 11th, 2010 at 5:28 pm
Hey Martha!! Great to see you gal!
February 11th, 2010 at 5:31 pm
Is that THE Martha??
February 11th, 2010 at 5:39 pm
I sure hope so! She was one of the best commenters ever on here imho. Strong Romney, but fair, and truthful.
February 11th, 2010 at 5:41 pm
marK,
What I suggested is pretty close to the consensus opinion. According to the just-released Washington Post Poll, 71% of the American people don’t believe Sarah is qualified to be President, and only 45% of Conservatives do. Note that I didn’t say she’s irrational—she actually has pretty good political instincts—but Mitt is the candidate of reason FOR a reason. He would demolish her in a head-to-head debate.
February 11th, 2010 at 5:43 pm
Barring some unforeseen circumstance, clearly Palin is on track for the GOP nomination. Case closed.
February 11th, 2010 at 5:45 pm
As we talk about substance by respective candidates, is it significant that Romney will use his book launch tour to give hour(s) long policy speeches (no note yet whether these will be open to the press and whether there will be press avails before or after) and Palin used her book launch tour to sign books, largely locking the press out or ignoring them?
February 11th, 2010 at 5:47 pm
Dave, what you say vis a vis Mitt and the higher belief of the American public in his qualification is largely irrelevent. Palin, not Romney, will drive those GOP primary voters in places like Iowa and SC. Thus, she, not Romney, secures the GOP nomination.
February 11th, 2010 at 5:49 pm
Romney will be the candidate for moderates in 2012 now McCain has left the scene. Huckabee is too southern for them and Palin too much of a zealot. Romney is very much a GOP contendor in the style of Gerald Ford or George Herbert Walker Bush, more of a Northerner than a Southerner and acceptable to the establishment with his private school and Ivy League education and background in Wall Street. He may be wooing conservatives now, but at heart he is really a centrist in style, remember his Ted Kennedy debate where he said he was an independent during the Reagan years?
February 11th, 2010 at 5:51 pm
Ban gay marriages, Republican gov hopeful says
The same-sex marriage prohibition would prohibit gay marriages and civil unions.
http://www.suntimes.com/news/elections/2042403,CST-NWS-brady11.article
You read it here first: `Bill Brady, too extreme for Illinois’
http://blogs.chicagotribune.com/news_columnists_ezorn/2010/02/extreme.html
February 11th, 2010 at 5:53 pm
15% is pitiful for a “frontrunner”.
February 11th, 2010 at 5:53 pm
And, albeit anecdotal, Palin polls higher than Romney on New Hampshire’s backyard local conservative talk radio biggie, Howie Carr on WRKO (out of Boston) et al — a power behind the Scott Brown victory.
Howie and his callers speak very very highly of Palin, sensing that Romney is “yesterday’s news” — and even Howie Carr a fairly close crony of Romney (Mitt frequently appeared on Howie’s show) — clearly expresses favor of Palin over Romney.
February 11th, 2010 at 5:54 pm
#110:
You may find it hard to believe but I agree with you about Mitt and the McCain moderates. Unfortunately moderates only make up at most 1/3 of the GOP and conservatives about 2/3. In a two horse contest Palin prevails. Romney imho must hope that at least one conservative stalking horse or Huckabee bleeds votes from Palin’s evangelicals or conservative base or in a head-to-head contest he will not win, especially in the South.
February 11th, 2010 at 5:56 pm
Jack, how old are you may I ask? I’ve been around the block a few times, 64 years old, and I have no idea what makes you think she is in the driver’s seat for the nomination. The polling makes it look as if it is a huge hill to climb for her.
February 11th, 2010 at 5:58 pm
bob, which precisely is why watch for the MSM promoting Huckabee (a loser) in an endeavor to thwart Palin by carving away at her base.
February 11th, 2010 at 5:58 pm
#112, 11% and 3% is even more pitiful for the two who many think should be the frontrunner.
February 11th, 2010 at 6:01 pm
Illinoisguy, I’m nearly your age. The GOP primaries are key. THAT’s the “hill” (not the general election) which is not that huge at all(compared to the rest).
February 11th, 2010 at 6:02 pm
what I mean to say is that the primary is the next hill, NOT the general.
February 11th, 2010 at 6:03 pm
…and with a Palin/Rubio ticket, the GOP lock will be for the next generation.
February 11th, 2010 at 6:08 pm
116.120 I love these black and white, dogmatic predictions three years before the elections. Jack, I am glad to see you are confident.
February 11th, 2010 at 6:10 pm
#116:
That is what PPP polling has been attempting to do since April 2009 by claiming for 10 consecutive months that Huck has been the GOP frontrunner.
And if this so why is he still mired in single digits in Intrade and why in 3 consecutive polls recently has he been near the bottom.
PPP may keep trying to create that narrative but the smart people aren’t buying it, at least not yet and maybe never.
February 11th, 2010 at 6:11 pm
Pablo, as a political junkie I’ve been closely following Palin since very early 2008 — all along, since then, things have been pointing to Palin, a real rarity in American politics.
Watch her operation, skills etc. — she’s going all the way.
February 11th, 2010 at 6:14 pm
MarK
Huckabee had some decent national news in January when he beat Obama in the PPP poll.
February 11th, 2010 at 6:15 pm
Jack, as a political junkie I’ve been closely following Palin since very early 2008 and I don’t seen it. Sorry.
February 11th, 2010 at 6:16 pm
#123:
I think so too, but it will not be easy, especially when almost the entire GOP establishment is against you.
Do not discount Mitt Romney. He ran in 2008. He will be a better candidate in 2012. Money is no object. He will be the darling of the MSM; his surrogates will be all over the place promoting his candidacy. He will be formidable, I don’t doubt that for a second.
February 11th, 2010 at 6:17 pm
Pablo, exactly what are you saying you don’t see?
February 11th, 2010 at 6:20 pm
bob, Romney WILL NOT be the darling of the MSM: NO WAY NO HOW! They will fear him just like they did last time; That’s why they pushed Huckabee so hard, because they saw him as not electable.
February 11th, 2010 at 6:21 pm
If Palin wins the nomination, it will be for the EXACT same reasons the Democrats nominated Obama. Just reverse the ideologies and their appeal is the same. Young, fresh, minority with a way with words. Both with less than 2 years in national elected office, huge passionate followings and supporters who believe they actually transcend politics as usual. Obama was the new JFK and Pal;in is the new Reagan. I just think it’s a foolish game of copycat.
February 11th, 2010 at 6:21 pm
bob, bottom line, in the GOP primaries, Romney will make the base stay home; Palin will more than drive em to the polls!
The conservative base simply does not like/want Romney (anyway not enough).
February 11th, 2010 at 6:22 pm
Jack (116) you may have predicted it, there. I will watch for that.
But think about this. This was no ordinary poll. The pollee had to suggest the nominee by name. The poll did not present a multiple choice such as here is a list of potential nominees, who of all these would you pick. No. They had to volunteer a name. Perhaps the first person they could think of would be mentioned. That is why so many were undecided/no opinion. I think this is a better measure of the passion of their supporters or sheer familiarity. Who knows?
February 11th, 2010 at 6:24 pm
127. I think that Palin is appeals to a certain kind of Republican voter. She is folksy, and she is able to make a cultural connection with some people. I have no doubt that when some people listen to her that love her. I am just saying, to me, she is very difficult to listen to. I don’t think that she is very clear sometimes, her voice is grating, and I could care less about her folksy one-liners. I see very little substance to her speeches and her populism annoys me.
I know that you love her, and that is fine. But there are a LOT of people that she doesn’t connect with.
February 11th, 2010 at 6:25 pm
Taylor, foolish or not, things are heading Palin (and fortunately Palin’s ideologoes are more compatible for a successful USA).
February 11th, 2010 at 6:28 pm
Pablo, go back and listen to the specifics of Palin’s Tea Party speech last week.
No substance, you say!!!???!!!
No clarity, you say!!!???!!!
She covers the map, clearly and concisely.
February 11th, 2010 at 6:28 pm
I disagree with you Jack however on 130. The conservative base rallied round Romney at the end of his primary candidacy. He had momentum after Super Tuesday but it was too late to put him over the top and he knew it. The trusted voices of conservatism were all coming round to him. I am a conservative and I really trust Romney to keep a strong military, limited government, fiscal restraint, and strong family values. He kept every campaign promise and governed as a conservative. If conservatives don’t like him its because they prefer someone else or the zealot Romney-haters are religiously motivated from what I have seen. That’s a shame.
February 11th, 2010 at 6:29 pm
Oh yeah, would like to tell a specific policy proposal that Palin offered?
February 11th, 2010 at 6:32 pm
Lori, you are absoultely correct FOR 2008, which is NOT the same whatsoever for 2012.
Romney WAS the fave of the base (compared to McCain) but Huck sabotaged Romney and Crist handed the nomination to McCain!
February 11th, 2010 at 6:34 pm
Jack, the problem is Palin isn’t very deep on the issues she’s been talking about. She has some good lines and that’s about it. We haven’t seen much substance coming from her yet.
February 11th, 2010 at 6:35 pm
Lori, and here’s an interesting observation from the election eve party for Scott Brown at Boston’s Park Plaza Hotel ballroom: Scott Brown towered over Romney (both were there).
If one were to look at Romney, they’d go for Scott Brown, the real deal.
February 11th, 2010 at 6:37 pm
139. Yes, because Brown won that night. Is that surprising to you?
February 11th, 2010 at 6:37 pm
139. Did you expect everyone to honor Romney on Brown’s victory night?
February 11th, 2010 at 6:38 pm
#132:
My friend, there are a hell of a lot of those kind of Republican voters, as evidenced by the Tea Party movement.
And as loving her, actually here is a confession. I hate Obama more than I love Palin. I support Palin because I want that Marxist taken down and I am passionate about that, and as I see it Palin has Obama’s number. It’s like a matchup between two football teams. Sometimes one team always beats the other. Palin is Obama’s #1 nemesis. She started wounding Obama with her speech at the Republican convention in 2008 and has already wounded him several times since and will continue draw more blood in the future. And because she is relentless she will neve give up pounding away at him and his agenda. If she is the GOP nominee in 2012 and she does not win I can promise you she will go the full 15 rounds with Obama. She will never indulge in namby-pamby white guilt and back off, that I will promise you. With Palin, it is a CAUSE and not just a campaign.
February 11th, 2010 at 6:39 pm
Martha, with all due respect, you are really off base here. Just read today’s NY Sun piece:
http://www.nysun.com/editorials/palinism-ii/86905/
February 11th, 2010 at 6:40 pm
Jack,
What kind of jerk hogs the limelight at someone else’s election eve party?
February 11th, 2010 at 6:41 pm
142. And as evidence by the recent polls, there are even more Republicans who don’t think that she is qualified. Is she really the best option of taking on Obama?
February 11th, 2010 at 6:43 pm
“They pushed Huckabee because they saw Romney as not electable”. That’s insane!!!!, when you say MSN.I hope your not talking about the media. they only push for candidates they think they can beat and they pushed for Huck to knock Romney out.
Huckabee never appeared electable to most people and after Romney dropped out John McCain literally SMOKED HUCKABEE!! What in the world are you talking about. I don’t know everything, but what do you guys mean by MSN?
February 11th, 2010 at 6:44 pm
mark, you miss my point, Romney was very humble and respectful of Brown — they are friends and the crowd was Romney friendly — but the two standing next to each other said it all.
February 11th, 2010 at 6:46 pm
147. No, actually it didn’t say anything. You have no point.
February 11th, 2010 at 6:50 pm
Pablo, well let me put it this way, if the contest was between Scott Brown and Mitt Romney, who do you think would win a GOP primary?
OK, case closed.
February 11th, 2010 at 6:51 pm
Mitt Romney overwhelmingly as evidence by the poll that just came out. Cased closed. Are you joking?
February 11th, 2010 at 6:51 pm
Bob,
One reason why Huckabee may not be polling as well in some of these opened ended polls, is that Huckabee stated that he is less likely to run. He also has stated he likes his Foxnews gig. So maybe some of his supporters, gave a different candidate answer, thinking that Huckabee will not be running.
And as a Huckabee supporter, I think he has erred in how he answered this question. If he was really planning on running, he should not have said he was thinking of not running. It makes the supporters start looking elsewhere.
February 11th, 2010 at 6:52 pm
#145:
According to the Daily Kos/Research 2000 poll last week 53% of Republicans felt that Palin was MORE QUALIFIED than Obama to be POTUS and only 14%, yes 14% refuted that statement.
Who really gives a rip what 85% of the Democrats think regarding Palin’s qualifications? They aren’t going to vote for her anyway whether they feel she is qualified or not. And the most important race for Palin or Romney is the 2012 election campaign against Obama, but the 2012 GOP primaries where in most contests Democrats can’t cross over and vote.
February 11th, 2010 at 6:52 pm
Romney was not the driving force in the Brown race, it was the tea party element that manned the phones, knocked on doors, raised the cash, And it was following many of the themes that Palin outlined at the TPC, regarding detainee rights, supporting out troops in Afghanistan
February 11th, 2010 at 6:54 pm
#151:
TC:
Thanks for alerting me to this. I did not know that Huckabee had said that, and it could be the flip side of the argument with Palin where she declared “it would be absurd not to consider the possibility”.
February 11th, 2010 at 6:54 pm
If it is Romney against Palin come 2012, Palin may carry much of the south, but Romney will definitely carry the Northeast, West Coast, be formidable in the Midwest, Florida and Mountain states. The point of this is that these states carry a higher number of delegates than the southern states overall. This would be a path to victory for Romney.
February 11th, 2010 at 6:55 pm
152, Are you kidding me?
How about the Washington Post poll that just came out:
Among Republicans
Is qualified 46% (61%)
Is not qualified 52% (36%)
Most Republicans don’t even think she is qualified.
February 11th, 2010 at 6:56 pm
No one seemed to see this before, so I’ll reiterate:
No one really knows Romney’s ceiling in a general election. Against a democrat, the GOP base easily rallies around Romney, but what is more interesting, is how many independents and moderates he’ll attract. History (governer of Mass) and polls like this indicate he will do quite well. Palin, on the otherhand, has a pretty hard ceiling, which is made all the more apparent every time a new poll comes out.
In short, we know pretty much where Palin in a general election comes up. With Romney, the sky’s the limit.
February 11th, 2010 at 6:57 pm
jack, brown towered over Romney??? Are you really serious??? So Brown drives a truck. I would like to see him do what Romney has done and he is the real deal and Romney is not.
Let me guess, it’s because he is average, like Obama, whos parents also divorced and whos Dad also was abusive, who also has two children, who also rised from humble beginnings, like PALIN, HUCK AND OBAMA. THE REAL DEAL HUH????
Thanks to Romney who encouraged him to run, gave him the office space, helped him with the money and early endorsement and sent much of his PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN TO BROWN, BROWN WON, thanks SOME TO ROMNEY AND YOU FIND PEOPLE FIND A WAY TO SPIN THIS BAD?
Wow, desperate! Romney had a huge role in one of the greatest political earthquakes of out time and helped greatly in it. This attack on Mitt is truly driven by hate and dishonesty. At least he is not getting hit like the man who is so obsessed with him has, HUCK.
Wow, you people will do anything and say anything. Romney was a close part of Brown winning and he was the former Governor of Mass.
I mean you people make me sick. You think Romney being on stage is worse than Palin already trying to take credit for Browns win in her Tea Party speach, who is not very wanted up North? Ya, she tried to set her self up as the biggest influence in that movement and then dishonestly claimed it was because of the tea Party Brown won. THE POLLS SHOW OTHERWISE!!!!!
Let Romney get some attention. at least he does not have to go on TV and have his own show in a desperate search for sensation and attention, like Huck or Palin.
February 11th, 2010 at 6:57 pm
153. Yeah, that is why Brown pretended he had never heard of the Tea Party when he was asked about it before the elections. That is why the Democrats tried to label Brown a Tea Party member. The Tea Party had nothing to do with the elections in MA.
February 11th, 2010 at 7:00 pm
Texas,
I think Huck was just being honest. He likes his Fox gig and he really doesn’t want to leave it. Oh sure, he dallies with the thought of running for President. But I really think he has found himself a very nice niche at Fox, and I don’t see him having a burning desire to leave it.
February 11th, 2010 at 7:02 pm
narciso, are you serious?/ I mean seriously I am stunned!!!!!!!!!!!! You try to link Palins anme to Browns win, as she her self did, when most of these guys dont want much to do with her.
I am stunned. Romney encouraged Brown to run and gave him all the forces he would need to make history. My friend that is absolutly pathetic you cannot give Mitt a little credit.
As far as palin she deserves no credit in this.
February 11th, 2010 at 7:05 pm
161. I wish I could have seen Brown’s face when Palin tried to link him in with the Tea Party during her speech the other night. The only contribution that the Tea Party made to Brown was NOT showing up in MA to campaign for him
February 11th, 2010 at 7:06 pm
It will be interesting to see what happens if neither Palin nor Huckabee run.
February 11th, 2010 at 7:07 pm
BWett.#157,
Yes, I saw it before. You make a definite point. Sarah Palin seems to have a hard ceiling. Mitt’s appeal appears to be more broad-based.
February 11th, 2010 at 7:08 pm
159. And why Brown didn’t even ‘remember’ talking to Palin on election night.
February 11th, 2010 at 7:10 pm
I read about this poll on another website. First of all, there were no Republican candidate names spoken as to who the voter would want; therefore, this poll only shows who these people have heard of most, not who they would vote for if they had a list of all the candidates running. Therefore, the 14% % 13% numbers are very deceiving and not worth discussing. This is real test for the Republican candidates because they might not know enough about all the other choices. So, Palin & Romney supporters can chill because this poll means nothing.
February 11th, 2010 at 7:11 pm
166. Then why did Huck do so poorly?
February 11th, 2010 at 7:14 pm
#155:
Here is what I would dispute in your argument:
1) According to David Bernstein in an article about Romney today the 11 Dixie states and Kentucky and Okalahoma will yield 40% of the total delegates.
http://thephoenix.com/Boston/news/96976-new-and-improved-romney/?page=4#TOPCONTENT
2)Palin will be formidable in the Mid-west, industrial states and the Rocky mountain States and competitive in the South-west. And especially in Iowa.
February 11th, 2010 at 7:18 pm
#163:
Dream on about Palin not running. You must have missed Palin’s interview on Fox News Sunday when she all but declared she was running and that she was receiving daily briefing from advisors in Washington. She sure didn’t sound like someone who was resigned to being on the sidelines in 2011 and 2012.
February 11th, 2010 at 7:26 pm
bob,
Is that the Bernstein article where he claims Romney has written off the South? This is what Matthew Continetti of the Weekly Standard had to say about that:
February 11th, 2010 at 7:30 pm
Bob,
Berstein of the Boston Phoenix is not exactly the most — uh, um, er, ah — unbiased Romney observer around. Take what he has to say about Mitt with several grains of salt.
February 11th, 2010 at 7:30 pm
aaron, calm down, politics is a tough game (and not always fair) and don’t be so defensive about Romney. It’s simply a poltical fact, Romney is sooooo yesterday — albeit we are all appreciative of his years of political contribution. Anyway, he has no chance with Romneycare behind him.
And, can you imagine who would fill any stadium in the country with standing room only, Romney or Palin?
need i say more
February 11th, 2010 at 7:30 pm
Bob,
Many – Nate Silver for one – put Wyoming, Idaho, and Montana in the Palin column, but Romney is very strong in those states. I don’t see her knocking him out. Especially when you factor in organization.
February 11th, 2010 at 7:34 pm
Jack,
Whom do you want for President? A guy who can fill a stadium with standing room only, or a guy who can do the job?
February 11th, 2010 at 7:35 pm
Jack, you’re right about Palin’s popularity and ability to attract a crowd. But you are underestimating the foundation Romney has been building since he dropped out. You point out the years of political contributions – well they aren’t chopped liver, you know. He’s doing it for a reason, and so far, the word is that the people who supported him in 08 are still loyal – all over the country. I think he lost a couple of people to Pawlenty.
February 11th, 2010 at 7:37 pm
Martha –
Palin, with her FOX News coup (a studio even built for her in Wasilla home) and her nationwide driven organization has an unprecedented operation.
And, she has become the face of the Tea Party. She is already in the campaign. She is the ying yang of Obama. She is, in some respects, the virtual president right now in terms of media access and power. (and Gibbs’ actions the other day proves it)
February 11th, 2010 at 7:37 pm
Palin’s base is the South. If he beats her there he will be the nominee. I don’t think he can do it, besides Florida or Virginia or maybe through unusual 3 way or 4 way splits.
The Mid-west and Iowa are also heavily Christian and evangelical; again if Mitt can beat Palin in Missouri, Nebraska, Kansas, the Dakotas etc more power to him. I don’t think he can do it.
As for the Rocky mountain states and the SW, yes I believe it will be a battleground, but Palin will not lose them all.
February 11th, 2010 at 7:40 pm
and Sarah (“death panels”) Palin has already beaten Team Obama!
February 11th, 2010 at 7:43 pm
171. Agreed. We comment that the MSM has a liberal slant. I believe that the Boston papers and media tilt even more left than the average in the rest of the country. They don’t like Mitt, didn’t like that he won, wouldn’t want him to be POTUS and will factor in that bias in the articles they write and coverage they give. It would be the same for most any Republican governor there, before, during and after their term.
Therefore, for a Republican to quote a not-so-positive article in a Boston paper regarding Mitt in support of their own candidate is usually (maybe not always) going to be a silly exercise.
February 11th, 2010 at 7:45 pm
hamaca, as I said before in the GOP conservative more-than-friendly Boston area talk radio market, they are more pro-Palin than Romney.
February 11th, 2010 at 7:48 pm
not to be too crass but am i the only one who would love to see how good looking the kids of sarah palin and mitt romney would be?
February 11th, 2010 at 7:53 pm
Elections are fought and won in the trenches. What the 2012 trenches will prove to be will be interesting. All candidates will need to do the traditional campaigning, debates, talk show circuit, MTP, etc.
However, Palin seems to be alone in the extent of her use of the newer online social networking. Her headstart here could really help her campaign.
At the same time, my take is that she’s getting a lot of mileage out of the paths of least resistance. Whether she’s prepared for the hand-to-hand combat of a national campaign remains to be seen.
February 11th, 2010 at 7:56 pm
176. Jack, the MSM are making Palin ‘it’ right now. Why do you think they highlight her non-stop?
If they were afraid of her, or if they thought she had a shot to be POTUS, I think they would not give her so much constant press. They love the fact that Palin is out front. Don’t you ever wonder about that?
They can read the polls, you know.
February 11th, 2010 at 8:00 pm
2012 will come down to this- electability in the general. One thing the GOP people dont want is to ahve 4 more years of Obama.
so if thats the criteria then really it becomes a Huck/Romney race because both poll well and attract idependents more than Palin.
i know there are alot of people who disagree but Palin simply cannot win in a general election and if that is what is motivating people the day they vote in the GOP primary, and all indications are that it will be- then she doesnt win as many states as those on here are saying.
this nation is a right of center nation that has tilted hard left, its having buyers remorse and its not about to tilt hard the other way. Palin represents a hard the other way tilt and its not going to happen.
so start deciding between Romney or Huck cause no one else has a shot a beating Obama
February 11th, 2010 at 8:02 pm
#182:
I can guarantee it what observing Sarah Palin in public on a daily basis for the last 18 months and studying her career in politics, she is fully prepared for the hand-to-hand combat of any campaign; she will not take any prisoners and Obama will wish he was not born in Hawaii before she gets through with him. But first the 2010 midterms and then the 2012 primaries to attend to. Regardless Sarah will be formidable.
When you think Sarah Palin, think Jimmy Stewart. Stewart like Sarah was known as folksy but watch many of his movies: he was fierce and determined when he had to be. And so will Sarah.
February 11th, 2010 at 8:03 pm
corep,
Personally, I think Ann Romney looks better than Sarah.
http://i266.photobucket.com/albums/ii251/UnPkg/mittwithann.jpg
February 11th, 2010 at 8:07 pm
Martha:–
With all due respect, YOU HAVE IT EXACTLY BACKWARD. Palin IS THE ONE the MSM fears, NOT Romney!!!
(just because everything they try against Palin backfires and makes here MORE popular and formidable — doesn’t mean they INTENDED TO MAKE HER more popular and formidable)
what twisted logic (albeit creative) you manifest in endeavor to minimize Palin
February 11th, 2010 at 8:09 pm
bob et al –
as far as “hand to hand” combat, Sarah is not known as the “baracuda” for nothing!
(she earned that moniker)
That’s exactly what she is
February 11th, 2010 at 8:10 pm
Martha, welcome back. It has been lonely here without you.
February 11th, 2010 at 8:14 pm
this whole who does the msm fear is just stupid. In case you havent notice the power of the “MSM” is waning. traditional media is a dying vine. not enough people pay attention anymore.
jack i think Palin has a future in the national level, i just dont think it is right now. she would have the effect of energizing a coalition that quite frankly is beaten down right now.
the lesson to take from recent GOP victories in DEM areas is that in order to win you have to count on a portion of that base which but Obama in to stay home. Palin may energize the right wing side of the party, but she also energizes the center left of DEMs and its that group that we need to decide that they need to sit this one out
and marK- Ann is a hottie too!
February 11th, 2010 at 8:19 pm
one more thing- Jerseyrep is a pretty astute commenter. for as long as I have been around here, going on 3+ years now, he has shown a particular knack for understanding the nuances of campaigns.
February 11th, 2010 at 8:36 pm
#168:
40% of delegates in not a majority. You mention the “dixie” former seceding states. This includes Florida where a large percentage of that 40% comes from. Florida is more likely to go to Romney. In addition, states such as Virginia and North Carolina are much more in tune with Romney. They are more moderate and more educated which polling shows will favor Romney. Not to mention these are some of the most populous Southern states.
These combined with the aforementioned Northern and West Coast states I see put Romney ahead
February 11th, 2010 at 8:36 pm
I know precisely one person that is ga ga over Palin which I don’t entirely understand. He’s a thrity something married professional, a 2008 Romney supporter, but seriously blushes at the mere mention of her name. it’s nauseating actually. So one day I just had to ask him what the deal was espeically since he was such a stauch Romney supporter last year. When I asked why the swicth in allegience he was suprised by my question and then said, “I haven’t switched my loyalty” Romney is still my guy for President! Well then what about Palin? He laughed and said there’s no way he’d want Plain for President; he just loved how she tweeks the media and nails Obama time and time again. He couldn’t get over how absurd my observation was. He understands Romney can’t be an attack dog and be Presidential at the same time, whereas Palin hasn’t figured that out yet.
February 11th, 2010 at 8:37 pm
Sarah has a lot going for her right now–more than what traditional candidates get this early on. If she chooses to run, I have no doubt that she’ll jump in with all the fire and passion she’s exhibited thus far. Her stance on the issues is great for many.
There’s been plenty of discussion of what is probably her major weakness, i.e. perception. It’s what keeps more people from supporting her. I’ll be curious to see how she addresses that, assuming she recognizes it. If she doesn’t for whatever reason, it may be that she has another strategy in mind.
Reagan was not considered by many to be the smartest or most intellectual, but he surrounded himself with advisors that knew their stuff and he knew how to work with them and make decisions. Fair enough.
I don’t know that that idea will work today to get someone elected. The very technology she’s using so well to communicate with her base can be used to highlight the weakness (e.g. Youtube) in ways that Reagan would not have had to face during the campaign.
February 11th, 2010 at 9:01 pm
Romney needs a big tent — its required to include all of his different positions on the issues.
February 11th, 2010 at 9:16 pm
187. Jack, I did not say the MSM wa afraid of Romney.
DanL – Thanks! I’m not really supposed to be here, though.
February 11th, 2010 at 9:26 pm
Man, you are dense, I said the tea party to Brown, he rode their themes to Washington, on spending,
on a strong posture on Afghanistan, the detention of enemy combatants, and being the 41st vote against Obamacare. At the outset, the NRSC only chipped in 50K to the effort, but the moneybomb
came from outside. Look she will run if she decides it is necessary to run, just as she did in Alaska, when they needed a fresh voice.
February 11th, 2010 at 9:27 pm
Regarding Huck, I’m not so sure that the majority of non-political junkies are even aware of the so-called clemency issue. To say that it has had little effect on his popularity when citing polls that show him doing well may not be all that accurate.
February 11th, 2010 at 10:00 pm
Jack, you need to calm down and try to patronize me with your condescending tone. They said the same thing about Reagan and who knew Brown would ever have a chance. I think like Palin said Brown is a sign of good things to come, just not for her. She is a celebrity and she is going to get smoked.
Please do not be so naive, to PROCLAIM IT IS A POLITICAL FACT ROMNEY IS DONE. That is your argument? Done by who> Palin, Pawlenty, Gingrich, soft Thune, Pence, Huckabee, haaaaaaaaaaa it’s just straight hillarious. It is complete foolishness and who do you think you are God?????????????/
McCain was consider done and look what happened. Romney has never looked better and one more thing, I guarantee Palin and Huck will run and make it even easier for Romney.
No one is looking more stronger than Romney and I submit Palin overshadowing him is helping in ways some of you people would never understand.
February 11th, 2010 at 10:01 pm
hamaca.#194:“Reagan was not considered by many to be the smartest or most intellectual, but he surrounded himself with advisors that knew their stuff and he knew how to work with them and make decisions.”
To paraphrase Lloyd Bentson. I attended rallies for Reagan. I watched Reagan. I’ve studied Reagan. I voted twice for Reagan. Reagan was a hero of mine.
Palin is no Reagan.
When she first burst upon the scene when McCain tapped her for the VP slot, I was thrilled. I absolutely reveled in her acceptance speech at the convention. I was so excited that I told everyone and sundry (including a number of liberal Democrats) that the election was over. McCain had won.
Then I began watching her closely. Slowly but surely, little by little my opinion of her went from being fiery hot to burning to smoldering to warm to tepid to cool. It has nothing to do with her being a supposed rival of Mitt Romney. It has everything to do with her mediocrity of her intellect, curiosity, leadership skills, seriousness, dignity, and stick-to-it-tive-ness.
I am seldom impressed with charisma, or at least its effects wear off fairly quickly with me. I could care less if a candidate can fill a stadium to overflowing with standing room only. We are not hiring a President to increase the attendance at sporting venues. We are hiring him to do a specific job, the hardest and most demanding executive job in the world. Charisma has little to do with it. Obama has charisma, or so I’m told. I’ve never seen it, but millions of others did. And how has the worked out for us?
Reagan did surround himself with wonderful advisers, but don’t be fooled. The buck still stopped at his desk. His will and his intellect was the dominating force that drove US policy for 8 years. Obama has also surrounded himself with advisers. How has that worked out?
Before I will vote for someone to sit in the Oval Office, I have to know if they can handle the job. I am not convinced Sarah Palin can. And some of her ardent advocates sounding like groupies do not help her cause with me one iota.
February 11th, 2010 at 10:08 pm
197. Since when are those Tea Party themes? Sounds like Republican themes. And I am pretty sure the Republican Party was talking about these issues before there ever was a Tea Party.
February 11th, 2010 at 10:16 pm
Nicely said Mark!!
February 11th, 2010 at 10:16 pm
Taylor.#193,
Great anecdote. I, too, love how she tweaks Obama time and time again. I thrill at the way the liberal media goes into apoplexic seizures everytime she opens her mouth. She is doing the conservative cause a world of good.
But she just isn’t Presidential material at the moment. Sorry.
February 11th, 2010 at 10:21 pm
I agree with you Mark! She is doing her part and playing her role, but PRESIDENT? HELL NOOOOOOOOOOO!
February 11th, 2010 at 10:39 pm
200. After all, we’re not electing a committee.
Aaron–easy on the hyperventilating, not good for one’s health.
February 11th, 2010 at 10:59 pm
Actually they should be, but more often then not, they are not applied. I have seen more than commenter here, suggest we abandon our military in Afghanistan or elsewhere ,because of cost, or
neocons or some such garbage. More than a few have suggested that we give Geneva convention rights
to those who deliberately flout the stipulations of them. As for the text book definition of socialism or social democracy, do I need to go further. Clearly McCain had little understanding of this, Romney’s conversion of the subject of Gitmo seemed forced and Huckabee, is like Jimmy Carter
redux in the GOP
February 11th, 2010 at 11:09 pm
Anyone pay attention to Nate Silver’s analysis of Palin’s potential paths to victory at 538.com?
One thing that strikes me is the role the party establishment could play in determining the outcome of the ’12 primary. Depending on how they order the gold, green and purple states, they can make the primary more favorable to Romney or Palin and Huckabee.
My money would be on the party setting the order to favor Romney. My perception is that the establishment (which are not folksy populist types) was embarassed by Palin’s lack of understanding of basic history and the issues during the ’08 campaign and it’s unlikely they’ll devise a primary system that would favor her in 2012.
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/02/first-look-at-palins-primary-math.html
February 11th, 2010 at 11:59 pm
Ci2Eye:“Anyone pay attention to Nate Silver’s analysis of Palin’s potential paths to victory at 538.com? “
Not really. I pay attention to his facts, but I’ve learned to take his analysis with a huge grain of salt. He tends to use some really sloppy math far too often to trust him.
February 12th, 2010 at 12:00 am
#207
Republican party establishment is collection of spineless,worthless “moderates”,some people call them RINOs,
I don’t of course.
These “characters” gave us George Sr,Bob Dole,George W and Johnny McCain.
How did they work out for you?
Not this time!
Sarah BARRAVUDA will teach them a lesson or to.She did it in Alaska,with Republican slobs and crooks.
February 12th, 2010 at 12:06 am
Great comments .
Sarah splits Huck vote and Mitt takes Iowa. Mitt takes New Hampshire . Sarah splits Huck and Mitt takes South Carolina . Sarah drops out and endorses Mitt . Tea Party movement endorses Mitt . Carter gave us Reagan and Obama will give us Romney .
February 12th, 2010 at 12:30 am
marK,
Perhaps his math is sloppy and his perspicacity over-rated but his recent analysis does point out that the order in which states will conduct primaries could help to determine the outcome. That was my real point.
The first and second group of states are set but the third group, fourth group, and fifth group, according to Silver, remain undetermined. Whichever group goes third could prove critical to the outcome.
February 12th, 2010 at 1:01 am
Palin should cut the hypocrisy
http://www.cnn.com/2010/OPINION/02/11/roland.martin.palin/
Why the mainstream media loves Sarah Palin
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0210/32885.html
Palin and Obama: Who’s Fooling Whom?
http://www.frumforum.com/who-is-really-playing-chance
Chris Wallace Denies Rolling His Eyes At Palin, Gushes Over Her Style And Brushes Away Her Dismal Poll Numbers
http://www.newshounds.us/2010/02/12/chris_wallace_denies_rolling_his_eyes_at_palin_gushes_over_her_style_and_brushes_away_her_dismal_poll_numbers.php
Underestimating Sarah
by Taylor Marsh
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/taylor-marsh/underestimating-sarah_b_459516.html
Palin’s Approval Ratings Slipping
By Eugene Robinson
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/printpage/?url=http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2010/02/12/palins_approval_ratings_slipping.html
February 12th, 2010 at 9:44 am
[...] appeal is in it’s breadth. As noted in statistics like these presented by Race42012. Romney polls well among Christian Conservatives. Not as well as Christian identity [...]
February 12th, 2010 at 10:14 am
191 – thanks corep…I appreciate that.
I think we have to look at these races in terms of the average voter…especially Presidential elections. Many voters only vote in Presidential election years. They do not pay attention to the inner workings of policy and issues. A lot of times they believe the slant they hear on the evening news or from the monologues on Late Night Talk Shows.
Those people, those very important average, American voters will sometimes vote for who they like. Will that be Palin? Will that be Romney? Will that be Huckabee? Will that be Pawlenty? Or, will it be someone else entirely? Who knows?
I actually think the majority of average voters don’t even take polls…they hang up the phone because The Simpsons are on and they want to enjoy their meatloaf in peace.
So, basically it’s still too early to tell but the trend is becoming interesting and more important with every passing poll.
February 13th, 2010 at 5:06 pm
One should not narrow the field to just Palin and Romney. Somany things can happen from now to 2012. Scott Brown
is the newest star in the Republican party . Like Romney he will be able to attract the moderates, hence attracting
a bigger tent and unlike Palin , who has a a smaller tent of conservatives, will be more electable , nationally.
Again he has more charisma than Romney does, and the better deal.
February 14th, 2010 at 8:46 am
Addendum to Post # 215 Also, Scott Brown did the unthinkable and surprise turn
to Camelot’s end. he now has to show if he is presidential material as a lot
are asking, to topple Obama in 2012. So far there is no heavyweight Republican,
asyet. Nay to Romney,Palin, Huckabee, Pawlenty, Gingrich etc. etc. etc.
February 15th, 2010 at 12:22 am
Well, to you Scott Brown fans, he will not run for president. He is needed in the Senate and the people of Massachusetts are counting on him. No one here has any idea if he would even make a good president, has the ability to lead, and a comprehensive vision for America. He won because of anti-incumbent fever and desire for common sense in congress. His victory was for all who wanted to stop the democrat madness and spending binge. He is popular because he won when no one expected he would. But lets let him become a good Senator before elevating the man to president. Not sure I want a another guy who wants to BE president, before he has a chance to show he would be a good one like the guy we have now.