Rasmussen Florida GOP Senatorial Primary
- Marco Rubio 49% {43%} [35%] (31%)
- Charlie Crist 37% {43%} [49%] (53%)
- Some other candidate 3% {5%} [4%] (5%)
- Not sure 11% {9%} [12%] (11%)
Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}
- Marco Rubio 67% {64%} [55%] (53%) / 14% {15%} [22%] (19%) {+53%}
- Charlie Crist 62% {61%} [67%] (75%) / 37% {38%} [32%] (23%) {+25%}
How would you rate the job Charlie Crist has been doing as Governor?
- Strongly approve 11% {11%} [14%]
- Somewhat approve 45% {45%} [43%]
- Somewhat disapprove 27% {28%} [26%]
- Strongly disapprove 16% {15%} [16%]
Survey of 449 Likely Republican Primary Voters was conducted January 27, 2010. The margin of error is +/- 5 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted December 14, 2009 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted October 20, 2009 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted August 17, 2009 are in parentheses.
February 1st, 2010 at 12:57 pm
The question is no longer ‘can Rubio win’ but instead ‘will Crist drop out and endorse’. A Jeb endorsement would put the final nail in the Crist coffin.
February 1st, 2010 at 1:00 pm
Crist pulls out in 3, 2…
February 1st, 2010 at 1:03 pm
Only 56 percent approve among Republicans? That’s really bad for Crist.
February 1st, 2010 at 1:03 pm
But the state party chairman has already endorsed Bill McCollum and McCollums campaign is in full gear, so would Crist win in a primary against McCullum or will McCullum drop out? Who knows?
February 1st, 2010 at 1:10 pm
What a strange, strange, year.
Adam, compare those approvals to what he was getting in the early part of this campaign, and before “The Hug.”
February 1st, 2010 at 1:11 pm
Alex,
I don’t think Crist will drop out right away. The primary is what, 6 months off or something. But if things don’t turn around, I’m sure he’ll save himself the embarrassment. Right now, I suspect he’ll make a last ditch effort to save his legacy.
February 1st, 2010 at 1:14 pm
BTW, that Rubio lead is outside the margin of error.
Assuming there is no picture of Rubio hugging Castro that is waiting to surface, the only question left is how low Crist can sink.
February 1st, 2010 at 1:21 pm
I wouldn’t be shocked if Crist switched parties. He has no really strong ties to any plank of the GOP. He’s not going to win the GOP primary. Meek is too urban and liberal to win statewide office and the Dems know it. Even Kos is making overtures to Crist. The Kos lemmings will follow along and won’t make any trouble for Crist if he switches.
Crist could switch to the D team and at least get to the general election contest. He’ll still probably lose to Rubio because such a maneuver would alienate black voters and Rubio will have the Cuban vote locked up. Whites aren’t voting Democrat in large numbers in FL this year.
February 1st, 2010 at 1:23 pm
Adam,
Maybe in a normal year. The trouble is, not only would the move look shamelessly opportunistic (esp. for a politician who struggles with that reputation already), but there is obviously a Red Tide rising, and Florida has been trending red again since 2000.
February 1st, 2010 at 1:24 pm
Crist could cut a deal, pull out endorse rubio and hope to get the field cleared for a 2012 race against bill nelson
February 1st, 2010 at 1:24 pm
Adam,
“such a maneuver would alienate black voters”
There is that problem too.
February 1st, 2010 at 1:26 pm
blue,
That would probably make more sense, except Crist doesn’t exactly have a strong hand right now.
February 1st, 2010 at 1:27 pm
#9,
No doubt. I don’t think we disagree. My only point is that a politician’s first instinct is survival. If Crist bolts to the Democrats at least he survives to fight to the general election. I don’t see how he gets that far as a Republican.
February 1st, 2010 at 1:30 pm
#13,
To clarify – I don’t disagree on the red tide and the trends in FL in the 2000′s.
February 1st, 2010 at 1:32 pm
Adam,
There is fighting against desperate odds for survival, and there is shooting oneself in the head. If Crist were to switch party now, it would be more the later than the former, I’m afraid.
February 1st, 2010 at 1:33 pm
2010 is pretty much out for Crist.
But we seem to be forgetting that there is another race in 2012. Nelson’s never been a strong candidate. He was vulnerable in 2006, but our top candidates Crist and Gallagher both ran for governor and left the Senate race to Katherine Harris to run into the ground (effectively ending both Harris and Gallagher’s careers and almost costing us a safe House seat).
Crist would be a solid candidate to take on Nelson in 2012. And, since it’s a pickup opportunity and not an open seat he would have to face such strong conservative opposition.
February 1st, 2010 at 1:33 pm
#15,
I don’t expect it to happen. I just wouldn’t be shocked if it did – and I would be able to see why he would do it.
February 1st, 2010 at 1:52 pm
Crist is in bad shape, but he’s run for office many times and has a reputation has a tough politician. I wouldn’t count him out just yet, he has a ton of money to spend on ads.
February 1st, 2010 at 2:14 pm
Never thought I’d see this.
The seat looks safe no matter what, so I like seeing competitive primaries produce the people’s voice.
I’m not on board with sinking moderates who can win, but if the conservative can win, too, I’m okay with that, obviously.
February 1st, 2010 at 2:15 pm
I disagree — he has a few aces to play. His withdrawal would benefit Rubio by saving cash and allowing him to position himself for the general and begin concentrating his fire now on Meek.
Rubio might see agreeing to endorse him in ’12 as a reasonable price to pay for those benefits.
February 1st, 2010 at 2:16 pm
#16:
Rumor has it that George LeMieux, our interm Senator, might try and take on Nelson. Bill Nelson is tough to beat because he acts like a moderate while in Florida, yet votes the liberal line back in Washington so he doesn’t displease the state or the national Democrats.
As for Crist switching back to run for Governor, it won’t happen. The entire state party establishment, both conservative and moderate, have united behind Bill McCollum. The general election is going to be McCollum vs. Alex Sink and Marco Rubio vs. Kendrick Meek. Charlie Crist will be nothing but a lame-duck Governor.
February 1st, 2010 at 2:37 pm
Adam,
“…a politician’s first instinct is survival.”
Just like a rat.
February 1st, 2010 at 2:40 pm
Bob,
“Rubio might see agreeing to endorse him in ‘12 as a reasonable price to pay for those benefits.”
That move makes sense for Rubio, but it doesn’t make sense for the national and state parties to try to clear the field for Crist in ’12. I think that’s a promise they shouldn’t and don’t need to make.
February 1st, 2010 at 2:45 pm
Erickson is reporting that Crist had breakfast with Biden the other day.
February 1st, 2010 at 2:58 pm
Hey Tommy,
Obama went to the Republican Retreat a couple of days ago. Does that mean Obama is getting ready to switch parties? Or does it mean that all of the Republican House members are getting ready to jump?
February 1st, 2010 at 3:00 pm
Well that’s that. Prepping Florida for 2012 …
Get my man Marco elected – check ?
February 1st, 2010 at 3:01 pm
Hey, and Harry Reid met with Scott Brown around the time he won the election. Is he preparing to switch parties?
February 1st, 2010 at 3:01 pm
http://miamiherald.typepad.com/files/2-10-fl-sw—crists-quandary.pdf
GOP Primary
Rubio: 44%
Crist: 30%
General Election
Rubio(R): 42%
Meek(D): 30%
Crist(R): 47%
Meek(D): 29%
Rubio(R): 31%
Crist(I): 26%
Meek(D): 24%
February 1st, 2010 at 3:01 pm
marK,
Good point, except Crist is a govenor and a Republican, and Biden is the VP and a Democrat. What would they be discussing over tea?
February 1st, 2010 at 3:02 pm
…..maybe they both breed Cocker Spaniels or something…..
February 1st, 2010 at 3:04 pm
MWS: They really have no power to clear a field in any case — as Rubio has proven. But Rubio’s endorsement would create a real problem for a challenge to Crist from the right.
February 1st, 2010 at 3:05 pm
MWS.#29,
Well, Crist heads the executive in Florida, and Biden is the #2 man in the Executive branch at the federal level. I am sure they could find something to talk about.
February 1st, 2010 at 3:08 pm
marK,
Their mutual love for passenger rail systems that waste billions in taxpayer money?
February 1st, 2010 at 3:09 pm
“breakfast with Biden’
Gotta give credit where it’s due — Crist is a stronger man than me. I couldn’t do that so early in the morning. Lunch or dinner would be bad enough.
February 1st, 2010 at 3:11 pm
#29:
They might be trying to coordinate some state and federal issue, like dealing with Haitian refugees or something like that. Don’t get me wrong, Crist would change parties in a second if he thought it would advance his political career. Crist is only loyal to the GOP because it is easier for a Republican to get elected in Florida than it is for a Democrat.
February 1st, 2010 at 3:11 pm
MWS.#33,
That would do it.
February 1st, 2010 at 3:23 pm
I find a pigeon’s opinion of me is very much influenced by whether or not I have bread.
February 1st, 2010 at 3:36 pm
Rasmussen Republican senate primary
Charlie Crist (R) 37 (43)
Marco Rubio (R) 49 (43)
February 1st, 2010 at 3:36 pm
Crist is not going to win the GOP primary.
February 1st, 2010 at 3:48 pm
With Drudge & Rasmussen reporting flash poll, Rubio 49, Crist 37 — Sean Hannity now predicting Crist will withdraw from the FL Senate Primary race.
The Palin/Rubio ‘12 Ticket is looking surer and surer
February 1st, 2010 at 3:51 pm
Pull out of Senate race. Work a deal with McCollum. Make him Lt Gov. Resign and run against Nelson in 2012.
McCollum becomes gov in 2010.
February 1st, 2010 at 3:56 pm
even if Crist tries again in 2012 there is a very real ris of him getting primaried again
February 1st, 2010 at 3:56 pm
very real chance*
February 1st, 2010 at 4:07 pm
Jose,
Given the weakness that he’s shown this campaign, I’m sure he will get primaried, particularly if Nelson looks beatable. Remember Crist started this campaign as a relatively popular governor. This was supposed to be his seat for the asking. He won’t start 2012 nearly so strong.
February 1st, 2010 at 4:08 pm
Tenn,
Why would McCullum do that? He is cruising to victory on his own.
February 1st, 2010 at 4:16 pm
Jonathan:
Aside from George LeMieux being an utterly unimpressive political figure, he’s also a Crist crony. He won’t be standing in the way of Crist.
February 1st, 2010 at 4:19 pm
I think Charlie Crist and Ben Nelson are in pretty much the same boat. They both assumed that “politics as usual” was a safe bet. They both lost their bets. Now they are faced with some very unpleasant choices no matter what they do.
At least Ben Nelson has a couple of years before he has to face the music. He might be able to turn it around, but his choice to accept the Cornhusker bribe is going to continue to haunt him.
I am reminded of the PATCO strike of 1981. The Air Traffic Controllers went out on strike in violation of federal law. Ronald Reagan ordered them back to work and gave them three days to return or face forfeiting their jobs.
I remember well the TV news images of various strikers tearing up, spitting on, and/or stomping on their notices and loudly proclaiming their defiance of the order. After three days, President Reagan pulled the trigger and fired every single one of them.
Several months later I remember reading a letter in a national publication from a fired worker who was bemoaning his fate. He had lost his +$60K (worth more than double that in today’s money) because of a single mistake. It just wasn’t fair. He had suffered enough and wished to return.
The replies were brutal. There was no sympathy whatsoever. They pointed out that he had put people’s lives at risk with his actions and had broken the law. It was also not a spur-of-the-moment thing. He had had three whole days to carefully think about and make his decision. He chose wrong, and now he was asking for a mulligan. The public was having none of it.
Does the same fate awaits Ben Nelson? I suspect it might.
February 1st, 2010 at 4:31 pm
marK,
I think “former air traffic controller” is the only profession Mondale won in ’84.
Seriously though, that was a watershed moment in the history of unions. If you look at the number of strikes per year before and after that event, they fell off a cliff. Even the unions admit it had a chilling effect.
February 1st, 2010 at 4:33 pm
Crist running for this seat was an assinine political decision from day 1. Remember, Rubio was already preparing to announce when Charlie jumped in. Had he not done this, Crist could have had a real shot to be the McCainesque candidate of 2012 for president. Now, he’ll be lucky if e can hack it against Nelson. I think he needs to drop out, and soon, and humbly, endorse Rubio and start preparing to run in 2012. And by “start preparing”, I mean start wooing back conservatives. There are some low-cost ways to do this; donating his fund-raising skills to the NRSC and helping us take back the house and senate would be a terrific start. Crist is a heck of a fund-raiser, and raising a couple mil for the cash-strapped NRCC, and conservative congressional candidates across the country, would help mend fences without alienating moderates.
February 1st, 2010 at 4:37 pm
AJ,
I don’t think he’ll be any more successful on the national stage than in Florida. One of the themes right now is that voters are demanding authenticity (backlash against Obama?), and “The Hug” has forever doomed Crist, I think.
February 1st, 2010 at 4:50 pm
MWS,
As long as Obama’s numbers are in the tank, that “Hug” is poison to Crist. He chose “politics as usual”. He lost.
February 1st, 2010 at 5:08 pm
It makes sense for Crist to pull out now. Nobody outside of the right-wing blogosphere is talking about this race right now and its more for a love of Rubio than dislike of Crist. He can save face while the contest is this far off. As the election nears, however, it’ll be obvious he’s conceding defeat if he withdraws.
February 1st, 2010 at 5:40 pm
Nate,
That is certainly one argument. However, the only constant in life is change. The primary isn’t until the end of August. That is seven months from now. That is an eternity in politics.
I predict that Crist will continue to run a minimalist campaign until May, maybe even June. At that point he has to fish or cut bait. Is he still able to raise funds well? What do the poll numbers look like? Does he have any meaningful support from the GOP establishment? How about his loyal base, are they still with him?
All these things will factor into any decision he will make. There is no hurry to make a firm commitment one way or the other for another four months.
February 1st, 2010 at 6:24 pm
marK,
“However, the only constant in life is change”
Ah, but the only certainty is death.
February 1st, 2010 at 6:26 pm
What about taxes?
February 1st, 2010 at 6:38 pm
marK,
I thought of that. But Caesar sometimes fails to collect.
God never does.
February 1st, 2010 at 6:50 pm
MWS,
Besides, is not death a change?
Be that as it may, thank-you for your sanity over on the Limbaugh thread. I find it amusing how Limbaugh’s credibility rises and falls dependent upon which horse he is betting on.