1. Mitt Romney – Gov. Romney remains in the best position to win the GOP nomination, however the fallout from Gov. Mike Huckabee’s clemency of a cop killer may hurt Romney as well. If the clemency problems force Huckabee out of the race, then Gov. Sarah Palin could consolidate social conservative support in the early states and pose a serious threat to Romney’s chances.  On the other hand, Romney has held steady throughout the year, experiencing none of the problems that have plagued his potential rivals.  That doesn’t mean that trouble isn’t rearing it’s head around the corner.  Gov. Romney’s healthcare plan will likely loom large throughout the next year, with the New Hampshire Union Leader firing the first major shot across the bow in a recent article that also showed signs of support for another Romney rival, Gov. Tim Pawlenty. Although this is a major hurdle, Romney’s rivals also have major obstacles, from Gov. Palin’s resignation, Gov. Pawlenty’s cap-and-trade problems, to Gov. Huckabee’s clemencies.  Whomever handles these problems the best will likely be the front-runner come 2012. For now, Gov. Romney is in the best position to do that.
2. Tim Pawlenty – Minnesota’s governor has made some significant moves in his pursuit of the 2012 nomination.  He has created a PAC, Freedom First, and announced several major hires from previous campaigns.  He has also taken direct aim at both Barack Obama’s and Mitt Romney’s healthcare plan, likely to be a favorite line of attack as Pawlenty sets out to overtake 2012 frontrunner. He is quickly becoming an establishment alternative to Romney, and attracting early insider support.  His efforts have earned him some early praise from key players in 2012, namely an early indication of support by the influential New Hampshire Union Leader. With Palin and Huckabee potentially leaving politics behind in pursuit of success on television and other areas, Pawlenty now appears to be Romney’s top rival. However, any indication that Palin and/or Huckabee may break their Fox News contract and return public life would instantly make the campaign more difficult for the Minnesota governor.
3. John Thune – Senator Thune continues to quietly build for a 2012 run. While having no announced opponent yet for his 2010 reelection bid, Sen. Thune still has amassed an impressive war chest, retained a top-level campaign manager, started a PAC, and fundraised for candidates in Iowa.  Slowly but surely the media is beginning to catch on, with new profiles about the junior senator from South Dakota appearing on CNN, The New York Times and The Washington Post. Thune’s social conservative credentials could also allow him to join the chorus of candidates likely to benefit from Huckabee’s problems. Thune brings both the social conservative credentials needed to win over the early states like Iowa, as well as significant establishment support that is needed for overall success in the primaries. With other conservative candidates seemly leaving politics for careers in media, Thune is rising quickly to potentially fill the void, with both his intangibles, his giant-killer reputation, and his conservative credentials leading the way.
4. Sarah Palin – After taking hits early on, Palin has stormed back with her wildly successful book, Going Rogue, and has seen a marginal increase in her numbers among republicans and independents.  But the success of her book is not the most important factor in her return to contention, but rather the damaging clemency revelations that could mortally wound Gov. Huckabee’s political career. Palin can now galvanize the social conservative movement behind her, making the former Alaska governor the overwhelming front-runner in the all important Iowa Caucuses. This  potential, as well as a natural base of support in South Carolina, could help the governor build an unstoppable momentum towards the nomination. However, her decision to sign a multi-year contract with Fox News seems to indicate that Palin could very well leave political office behind, instead choosing to remain in the private sector writing books and becoming a TV star.  Due to these tempting private sector opportunities, Palin as well as Mike Huckabee may forgo political office all together, deciding to stay active politically more as pundits and celebrity conservatives.  These opportunities are why I feel Palin is now less likely to run, and therefore why she is being dropped in the rankings.
5. Newt Gingrich – The former Speaker may have lost some face with the conservative base in endorsing Dede Scozzafava in the NY-23 election, but he may have gained support from the crucial GOP establishment.  Despite the Speaker’s impressive resume and historic electoral successes, his bombastic past still leaves many in the establishment wary. But being a team player in NY-23 may get the establishment on board the Gingrich train, granting the former Speaker a chance to make history and complete a legendary comeback.  Nixon accomplished it, and Newt may be next.  With Palin and Huckabee potentially staying out of the 2012 field, Gingrich could potentially rally the base and become an alternative to the more moderate Romney and Pawlenty. He has recently mentioned himself as a potential 2012 contender and also plans to release a new Contract with America, which could be the policy foundation for his presidential bid.
6. Mike Huckabee – The former Arkansas governor has run into serious trouble with the revelation that he granted clemency to notorious cop-killer Maurice Clemmons. The sheer amount of clemencies and pardons is jarring, with the governor having granted more clemencies and pardons then several surrounding states’ governors combined.  The volume alone would lead you to believe that Clemmons will not be the last we hear of the people released or commuted by Governor Huckabee.  While Huckabee’s die-hard supporters will likely stick by their man allowing his poll numbers to hold steady, this will certainly come back to haunt him, as rivals hammer the former governor with his poor judgment in these cases.  A GOP establishment already wary of Huckabee now has the last reason they will ever need to abandon him completely, and will work to force him from the 2012 race. If Huckabee was reluctant to leave his TV show before this news broke, I imagine his Fox News deal will grow only more enticing as the primaries get closer.  The promise of a lucrative private sector career on TV and radio may prove too much to surrender for another run for office, a temptation now shared by Huckabee’s new Fox News colleague, Sarah Palin.
7. Haley Barbour – Governor Barbour is perhaps the greatest strategist in the party.  He showed off that talent earlier this month, helping to lead two GOP candidates to victory in Virginia and NJ, a great start for the head of the RGA.  With his sights set on major races all over the country in 2010, from California, Ohio, Pennsylvania, New York, Michigan, Florida, and Texas, Gov. Barbour could not only continue to help revive the party but could also collect enough chits along the way to make himself a strong contender in 2012.  With Speaker Gingrich’s mishap in NY-23, it could be Gov. Barbour who emerges as the 1994′er to lead a new generation of Republicans back to power, and himself to the White House.
8. Rick Perry – The long serving Texas Governor has bounced back from poor early polls to take a solid lead in the GOP primary against Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison.  A successful primary followed by likely reelection will help raise Gov. Perry’s profile further in the national party.  He is already winning populist support for his anti-Washington screed, and won the endorsement of Gov. Palin.  But it’s his state’s strong economy that just might push the Texas Governor into contention. As blue states like California and New Jersey head into spiraling fiscal crisis, Texas stands as a strong example of successful conservative economics in the face of a President pushing tax-and-spend liberalism.  This factor, combined with a long, experienced career can put Perry in a very strong position. The uniting of the Tea Party base and his large, deep-pocketed Texas donors would give him a strong chance in the early states.
9. Mike Pence - The conservative Indiana congressman is a rising star in the GOP, and now more then ever he seems to be gearing up for a potential 2012 presidential bid.  Rep. Pence’s intentions have been tough to read due to the multiple opportunities for higher office currently within his reach.  In 2012, both the governorship and Richard Luger’s senate seat could be open, and due to the unpopular Obama agenda even Sen. Evan Bayh could be vulnerable in a 2010 race.  Despite these potential opportunities, it appears Pence has a bigger office in mind.  The recent additions to his campaign team, notably Phil Gramm, Ed Meese, and Tony Perkins as advisors and Kellyanne Conway as a campaign strategist, seem to indicate Pence will aim for the 2012 presidential nomination. With his conservative credentials, his Tea Party connections, and his strong communication skills, Pence could be a real dark horse, especially if Palin or Huckabee pass on the race.
10. Jeb Bush – The former Florida governor has been more active of late, stumping recently in Ohio for GOP candidate John Kasich, and fundraising for other candidates around the country.  As Obama’s numbers get worse and the Bush brand slowly rebuilds, talk of Jeb returning to public life is growing.  He still commands the vast Bush network, and is increasingly gathering chits by fundraising in key races around the country.  The biggest potential chit, however, remains his potential endorsement of Marco Rubio in the Florida senate primary, an endorsement that could put Rubio over the top while also endearing the more moderate Bush brother to the conservative grassroots.  Such a high profile, high reward endorsement could push Jeb right back into the 2012 spotlight.

Honorable Mention: Rudy Giuliani, Mitch Daniels, Eric Cantor, George Pataki, Dick Cheney, Bobby Jindal, Gary Johnson, Ron Paul, Rick Santorum

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With just hours to go before Tuesday’s special Senate election in Massachusetts to fill the unexpired term of the late Edward M. Kennedy, Sen. Harry Reid said that Democratic candidate Martha Coakley would be “much more than just my 60th yes-man.”

“Sure, she’d be a rookie senator, who’s never functioned in a legislature, with no power, eager to please, inheriting the onus of the longest liberal dynasty in history,” said Reid, “but that doesn’t mean she’d be just a rubber stamp, or some kind of inert mass of protoplasm that responds predictably to the stimuli of her partisan overlords … no, not at all.”

Coakley, the attorney general of the commonwealth, immediately released a statement endorsing Reid’s remarks, and noting: “I will not be just a rubber stamp, or some kind of inert mass of protoplasm that responds predictably to the stimuli of my partisan overlords … no, not at all.”

Scott Ott’s Examiner Scrappleface: Reid: Martha Coakley ‘more than just my 60th Yes-Man

There’s more just a click away. Enjoy.

For the New York Review of Books, Jonathan Raban has penned a review of Going Rogue. It is dripping with contempt for anyone who refuses to blindly follow experts — liberal experts, not conservative ones — over a cliff:

In our present neo-Keynesian moment, economics has never seemed more bewildering and arcane, or more the exclusive preserve of hated “experts” from the “East Coast elites.” Most people I know, myself included, can’t readily follow the algebraic equations that explain the “Keynesian multiplier,” which, in its turn, is needed to explain TARP and the stimulus package. Belonging to a tribe different from Palin’s, I simply take it on trust as a matter of faith that Paul Krugman, in his columns for TheNew York Times, is more likely to be right about such things than, say, Lou Dobbs or Senator John Thune, but I share in the general apprehensive fogginess about what’s happening.

For Palin, it’s simple. The national economy is a straightforward macrocosm of the domestic economy of the average god-fearing family of four. What’s good for the family is good for the nation, and vice versa; and the idea that the family should spend its way out of recession is an affront to common sense, conservative or otherwise. On December 3, she tweeted: “Baffling/nonsensical: Obama’s talk of yet another debt-ridden ‘stimulus’ pkg. Fight this 1, America, bc after last 1 unemployment rose, debt grew.” Five days later, while Obama was speaking at the Brookings Institution about the economy, Palin wrote, “Quik msg b4 book event: Prez pls pay down massive, obscene U.S debt &/or give ‘stimulus’ $ back to Americans b4 propose spending more of our $.”

Palin’s general economic theory, so snugly adapted to Twitter’s 140- character limit, carries great weight. At a time when everyone should be clipping coupons, tightening belts, and buying generic peanut butter, Obama (Columbia and Harvard), Larry Summers (MIT and Harvard), Tim Geithner (Dartmouth and Johns Hopkins), and Peter Orszag (Princeton and London School of Economics) are out on a spending spree that is “baffling,” “nonsensical,” and “obscene.” But then what did we expect of the East Coast elites?

First of all: cute rhetorical juxtaposition. Quote Palin’s netspeak Twitter postings rather than her op-eds for major newspapers. Cite The Brookings Institution, Harvard, MIT, Princeton, and London School of Economics — and you’ve won! Wow — doesn’t that list look impressive? — But there’s a little problem.

Why does he trust Paul Krugman “on faith”? Why not someone like Thomas Sowell? Would he have trusted Friedrich Hayek “on faith”?

The problem with citing “experts” is that you can always find a countervailing opinion from someone with just as many credentials. And then you simply have a clash of credentials — which only leads to a debate about results, which is exactly what the wicked expert-haters are trumpeting.

Citing experts is intellectual chicanry. “Look at this important person who agrees with me!” is not an argument. Argue your case or get off the stage. The issues are too important to be left to people who only care about feeling important.

BECK: [Sarah Palin] is the most guarded woman I have ever seen in my life. She’s the most – I’ve never…I don’t know if you’ve had this feeling. I’ve never met anybody with shields up more than Sarah Palin. She is someone I think that gets – people have the wrong impression of her, I think, because she knows she’s swimming in a tank full of sharks. When she walked onto my set, she was Googling. She was actually getting her hair and makeup done, and she was Googling, and talking to people, and I said: ‘So, what’s up?’ And she said ‘Oh, I’m just doing last-minute homework.’ And I said ‘Why?’ And she said ‘’Cause you’re going to ask me about the 25 windows.’ I said ‘What 25 windows?’ She said ‘Statue of Liberty…25 windows…There are 25 windows. They each represent different minerals.’

BECK: She’s suspicious of everything.

BECK: Here’s the thing with Sarah Palin, you have to understand. One – she has shields up like you couldn’t believe. And until you get those shields down on her, I don’t think you’re really going to see Sarah Palin be able to answer enough questions about her. The second thing is – I’ve decided that Sarah Palin cannot be President of the United States until I see her able to eviscerate somebody like [Bill O’Reilly]. She needs to be – she’s playing defense right now where she needs to play offense. I’m not convinced that she wants to be President.

American Research Group Massachusetts Senatorial Survey

• Scott Brown (R) 48%
• Martha Coakley (D) 45%
• Joseph Kennedy (I) 2%
• Undecided 5%

Survey of 600 likely voters was conducted January 12-14, 2010. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points. Party ID breakdown: 44% Democrat; 20% Republican; 36% Independent.

Inside the numbers:

Brown leads Coakley 94% to 1% among registered Republicans and he leads 58% to 37% among unenrolled voters. Coakley leads Brown 71% to 20% among registered Democrats. A total of 8% of Democrats and 5% of Republicans remain undecided.

Brown leads 54% to 39% among men while Coakley leads 50% to 44% among women.

Brown leads 52% to 42% among likely voters age 18 to 49 and Coakley leads 47% to 46% among voters 50 and older.

A total of 9% of likely voters say they have already voted by absentee ballot, with Brown leading Coakley 58% to 42%.

Here is her latest gaffe…

Here we hear Martha Coakley stating emphatically that Curt Schilling is a Yankee fan! For those of you not up on the Red Sox, barely five years ago Curt Schilling was the ace pitcher that helped the Sox win the 2004 World Series and free them of 86 years of frustration.

Quite seriously, if this lady was trying to lose, she would be very hard pressed to do it any better.

The other night I watched 1965′s The Great Race starring Tony Curtis, Jack Lemmon, and Natalie Wood. In it is a quote that seems apropos somehow:

Leslie: It’s been my experience, General, that there is little advantage to winning if one wins too easily.
General: An admirable point of view, for anyone but a soldier. In my profession, to win is imperative. To win easily is a blessing.

Is there any wonder why Obama now feels free to campaign for her? If she wins, he will be hailed by his party as a hero. If she loses — as seems increasingly likely — the fault will be laid entirely at her feet. “Even Obama himself couldn’t save her”, will be the refrain. There is literally no downside for him in this.

***Update***
Curt Schilling replies:

I’ve been called a LOT of things… But never, and I mean never, could anyone ever make the mistake of calling me a Yankee fan. Well, check that, if you didn’t know what the hell is going on in your own state maybe you could….

It seems that Scott Brown, whom we all are hoping will win next Tuesday in Massachusetts’ special election, is a more liberal Republican than Dede Scozzafava, who was reviled by the majority of the people who are now enthusiastically rooting for State Senator Brown.

The bottom line is while Brown is more liberal when compared to Dede, he is more conservative when compared to the rest of Massachusetts. So, as Mr Shor states in his concluding paragraph:

What this shows, however, is that the conservative base in the United States, far from dragging their party moblike into an unelectable extreme, has made the decentralized decision to support the realistically best candidate they can relative to the context in which he’s being elected. The 23rd special district election can also be seen in this light; throwing Scozzafava overboard made far more sense in the context of that electorate.

An excellent analysis. I highly recommend reading all of it.

Is Boxer next?

According to Rasmussen, Barbara Boxer’s Senate seat is starting to look shaky. Here are the results of their latest polling:

• Barbara Boxer 46% (46%) {49%} [45%]
• Carly Fiorina 43% (37%) {39%} [41%]
• Other 3% (5%) {4%} [7%]
• Not sure 8% (12%) {8%} [7%]

• Barbara Boxer 46%
• Tom Campbell 42%
• Other 3%
• Not sure 9%

• Barbara Boxer 46% (46%) {46%}
• Chuck DeVore 40% (36%) {37%}
• Other 4% (5%) {7%}
• Not sure 10% (13%) {10%}

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Tom Campbell 49% (40%) {42%} / 23% (20%) {32%} {+26%}
• Barbara Boxer 51% (51%) {51%} [50%] / 46% (41%) {42%} [47%] {+5%}
• Carly Fiorina 38% (40%) {32%} [30%] / 34% (29%) {35%} [35%] {+4%}
• Chuck DeVore 33% (31%) {31%} / 29% (25%) {37%} {+4%}

Generally speaking, do you strongly favor, somewhat favor, somewhat oppose or strongly oppose the health care reform plan proposed by President Obama and the congressional Democrats?

• Strongly favor 25% (29%) {35%}
• Somewhat favor 24% (22%) {20%}
• Somewhat oppose 9% (8%) {6%}
• Strongly oppose 39% (37%) {35%}

Should the December attempt to blow up an airliner as it was landing in Detroit be investigated by military authorities as a terrorist act or by civilian authorities as a criminal act?

• By the military as a terrorist act 63%
• By civilian authorities as a criminal act 21%

How do you rate the way that the government responded to the attempted bombing of a U.S. airliner on Christmas Day?

• Excellent 17%
• Good 24%
• Fair 20%
• Poor 37%

Survey of 500 likely voters was conducted January 14, 2010. The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted November 17, 2009 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted September 23, 2009 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted July 22, 2009 are in square brackets.

Inside the numbers:

Men favor any of the Republicans by double digits over Boxer, while women prefer the incumbent by similar margins. Voters not affiliated with either party like the Republican candidates by anywhere from nine to 14 points.

The worst Republican (DeVore) is now within six points after trailing ten point two months ago. The best (Fiorina) is within three points after trailing nine points two months ago. This is within the margin of error. Remember, Boxer is a three term incumbent Democrat from a deep blue state.

Every Republican gained on her, with Fiorina gaining six points and DeVore gaining four. Newcomer Campbell is already within 4 points of her.

Note Boxer’s curiously consistent 46%. This is indicative of a race being more about Senator Boxer than her opponent.

An email message sent today by Team Huck Iowa states (emphasis added):

I am excited to let you in on some news. Plans are underway by Team Vander Plaats for a February 24th visit by Governor Mike Huckabee to Cedar Rapids, Iowa. Governor Huckabee will be hitting the campaign trail with Bob Vander Plaats.

The plans are in the beginning stages but I wanted you to be the first to know. There will be a private luncheon with Governor Huckabee and Bob Vander Plaats and in the evening we will be having a grassroots campaign rally (no charge). This will be an exciting day!

Team Vander Plaats is starting to take requests from interested parties. If you are interested in attending the private luncheon with Governor Huckabee and Bob Vander Plaats please contact Tim Dusenbery @ tim.dusenbery@teamvp2010.com more details will follow regarding the rally.

Part of a statement released today by U.S. Representative Vic Snyder (AR-02) reads:

I have concluded that these election-year forces are no match for the persuasive and powerful attraction of our three one-year old boys under the leadership of their three-year old brother, and I have decided not to run for re-election.

The Tolbert Report comments:

This comes on the same day that a poll showed him trailing Republican Tim Griffin by 17 points…

—————————————————————————————

David Schmidt is the Director of HucksArmy. You can reach him at david.schmidt@evercor.com.  Facebook | Twitter

I know I’ve been a little late in commenting on this but life has been busy. Obviously, Sarah Palin’s debut as a Fox News contributor has been big news lately. She’s been on O’Reilly, she’s been on Beck, she’s been on Hannity, and she seems to be making it clear that we’re going to be seeing a whole lot more of her.

 So, how do I think she’s doing and where do I think she’s headed? Personally, I think she’s done wonderfully in her first round of appearances – answering all of the obligatory questions that we’ve been asking for months and setting a rather aggressive tone for her future appearances. Most importantly – she has poo-pooed the absurd talk that she will bolt the Republican Party to run for president atop a Tea Party ticket (and done so to Glenn Beck’s face). Furthermore, she has clearly left the door open when it comes to running in 2012 as a Republican.

Personally, I think this is her way of gearing up for a presidential run more than it is a way of stepping back. For one, she’s made clear that she’s not in it for the money as many people have said – noting that all speaking fees from her upcoming Tea Party Convention speech are going to SarahPac and will be used to fund conservative candidates. She clearly wants to be a power player on the campaign trail in 2010, and she’s willing to spend a lot of cash on these midterms – that is NOT what you do if your plan is to rest on your laurels and rake in the dough. However, it IS what you do if your plan is to seek national office in the near future.

Furthermore, I really like the idea of Gov. Palin hosting specials on Fox News. I said in my new year’s predictions that Palin was likely to start work on a second book after the elections (and I stand by that) – but let us remember that the governor is a broadcast journalist by profession. She knows full well that a good documentary film or TV news special is every bit as effective as a bestselling book (if not more so). If you doubt that, consider how Al Gore was able to raise the profile of his environmental doomsday prophecy by making “An Inconvenient Truth”.

 I now fully believe that Sarah’s plan is to use film – rather than the printed word – to spread her message. It’s a far more accessible medium than books, and it requires less of a time investment on the part of viewers – so it’s a very good move.

Lastly, while a lot of people think that future presidential candidates need to lay low and not rock the boat – I do not think this is the case with Palin. First off, Palin’s strategy is to position herself as the de-facto leader of the opposition against Barack Obama. The best way to do this is to make sure she gets double the camera time compared to Romney, Huckabee, Pawlenty, etc. Second, Palin’s biggest weakness is her perceived lack of intelligence and issue knowledge, and laying low would only play into those perceptions. In her particular case, she needs to saturate the airwaves with smart commentary and make sure that everybody and their brother knows that Sarah is on top of things.

Not rocking the boat may indeed be a viable strategy for people like Mitt Romney and Tim Pawlenty, but I don’t think it would cut the mustard when it comes to Sarah Palin. Hence, I am very happy about the way things are working out.

Kudos to Gov. Palin for both a successful TV debut and a brilliant strategy move. It was unorthodox, but ultimately I think it will be very effective. As for those who think this means she’s axed any 2012 aspirations…well…I look forward to your reactions when she announces her candidacy.

Joe Biden has sent an e-mail out through the Organizing for America list. (When did I sign up for this, anyway? Was it when I asked for that Joe Biden text message that didn’t come until 3 A.M.?) In it, he pretends that he and Obama are the enemies, rather than the handmaidens, of the banking industry.

Yesterday, President Obama announced our proposed Financial Crisis Responsibility Fee on the country’s largest banks…

The fee would recover every penny loaned to Wall Street during the financial crisis and stop the reckless abuses and excesses that nearly caused the collapse of our financial system in the first place.

But the banking industry — among the most powerful lobbies in Washington — is already launching attacks to stop Congress from enacting the proposal.

Barack and I aren’t backing down. But to win, we’ll need the American people to add their voice right away.

Yeah, okay, then. There’s this weird game that goes on in Washington where big business and big government wink at each other, pretend to be at each other’s throats, and keep each other from failing at the end of the day. This is a particularly egregious example of it. I

David Frum lays out the broader implications of this non-idea:

Wasn’t the whole point and purpose of the administration’s actions in 2009 (and the Bush administration’s actions in 2008) to restore profitability to the banks by any means necessary? Didn’t the administration consciously and knowingly reject policies such as direct investment in the banks that would have enabled the government to share in the proceeds if profitability were restored? In other words – they got the result they wanted. Why complain?

…

Which committee of Congress will have jurisdiction over this new idea for holding bankers to account? Would it be … Ways and Means, chaired by Charlie Rangel? Why yes I believe it would. It will be interesting to hear Chairman Rangel discuss the importance of honest disclosure and full responsibility for one’s obligations.

Is 2010 to be the year of the Obama tax increase? As I count them, in addition to this proposed new tax on banks, there are 1) the jump in tax rates as the Bush cuts expire; 2) the increase in the Medicare payroll tax proposed to fund health care reform; 3) the excise tax on high-value health plans; 4) the implicit tax increases in cap-and-trade; 5) the implicit tax of the health insurance mandate.

Massachusetts: ‘Bottom has fallen out’ of Coakley’s polls; Dems prepare to explain defeat, protect Obama

So proclaims an article by Byron York in the Washington Examiner. Some key paragraphs:

Here in Massachusetts, as well as in Washington, a growing sense of gloom is setting in among Democrats about the fortunes of Democratic Senate candidate Martha Coakley. “I have heard that in the last two days the bottom has fallen out of her poll numbers,” says one well-connected Democratic strategist. In her own polling, Coakley is said to be around five points behind Republican Scott Brown. “If she’s not six or eight ahead going into the election, all the intensity is on the other side in terms of turnout,” the Democrat says. “So right now, she is destined to lose.”

Given those numbers, some Democrats, eager to distance Obama from any electoral failure, are beginning to compare Coakley to Creigh Deeds, the losing Democratic candidate in the Virginia governor’s race last year. Deeds ran such a lackluster campaign, Democrats say, that his defeat could be solely attributed to his own shortcomings, and should not be seen as a referendum on President Obama’s policies or those of the national Democratic party.

The same sort of thinking is emerging in Massachusetts. “This is a Creigh Deeds situation,” the Democrat says. “I don’t think it says that the Obama agenda is a problem. I think it says, 1) that she’s a terrible candidate, 2) that she ran a terrible campaign, 3) that the climate is difficult but she should have been able to overcome it, and 4) that Democrats beware — you better run good campaigns, or you’re going to lose.”

With the election still four days away, Democrats are still hoping that “something could happen” to change the dynamics of the race. But until that thing happens, the situation as it exists today explains Barack Obama’s decision not to travel to Massachusetts to campaign for Coakley. “If the White House thinks she can win, Obama will be there,” the Democrat says. “If they don’t think she can win, he won’t be there.” For national Democrats, the task is now to insulate Obama against any suggestion that a Coakley defeat would be a judgment on the president’s agenda and performance in office.

In other words, it’s all about “The One”. So they must therefore insist that it has nothing to with “The One”.

It would appear that the Democrats are starting to cut their loses. This cannot be good news for Coakley. These sorts of things tend to become self-fulfilling prophesies.

The only way Coakley can win now is to get a high-turnout from the yellow-dog Democrats, and they seem to becoming more demoralized by the hour. It’s going to be a long, long four days for Ms. Coakley.

***Update***
As commented below (thanks Jake), Obama is now scheduled to campaign in Massachusetts this Sunday according to Politico.

Rasmussen Colorado Senatorial Survey

• Jane Norton (R) 49% {46%} [45%]
• Michael Bennet (D) 37% {37%} [36%]

• Jane Norton (R) 47% {45%} [42%]
• Andrew Romanoff (D) 35% {34%} [34%]

• Tom Wiens (R) 44% {42%}
• Michael Bennet (D) 38% {41%}

• Tom Wiens (R) 44% {41%}
• Andrew Romanoff (D) 39% {40%}

• Ken Buck (R) 43% {42%}
• Michael Bennet (D) 38% {38%}

• Ken Buck (R) 40% {41%}
• Andrew Romanoff (D) 39% {39%}

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Jane Norton 51% {49%} [47%] / 26% {32%} [30%] {+25%}
• Ken Buck 38% {36%} / 20% {26%} {+18%}
• Tom Wiens 36% {37%} / 24% {30%} {+12%}
• Andrew Romanoff 40% {44%} [37%] / 36% {35%} [41%] {+4%}
• Michael Bennet 42% {39%} [36%] (41%) / 40% {46%} [49%] (34%) {+2%}

How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President?

• Strongly approve 32% <32%> {31%} [35%] (35%)
• Somewhat approve 15% <13%> {19%} [13%] (16%)
• Somewhat disapprove 9% <7%> {6%} [8%] (7%)
• Strongly disapprove 43% <47%> {43%} [43%] (41%)

How would you rate the job Bill Ritter has been doing as Governor?

• Strongly approve 16% <14%> {18%} [11%] (15%)
• Somewhat approve 29% <30%> {29%} [29%] (34%)
• Somewhat disapprove 27% <15%> {20%} [25%] (20%)
• Strongly disapprove 28% <37%> {31%} [32%] (29%)

Generally speaking, do you strongly favor, somewhat favor, somewhat oppose or strongly oppose the health care reform plan proposed by President Obama and the congressional Democrats?

• Strongly favor 19% {25%}
• Somewhat favor 22% {20%}
• Somewhat oppose 6% {9%}
• Strongly oppose 47% {46%}

Should the December attempt to blow up an airliner as it was landing in Detroit be investigated by military authorities as a terrorist act or by civilian authorities as a criminal act?

• By the military as a terrorist act 64%
• By civilian authorities as a criminal act 21%

How do you rate the way that the government responded to the attempted bombing of a U.S. airliner on Christmas Day?

• Excellent 10%
• Good 27%
• Fair 21%
• Poor 37%

Survey of 500 likely voters was conducted January 13, 2010. The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted January 6, 2010 are in angle brackets. Results from the poll conducted December 8, 2009 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted September 15, 2009 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted September 9, 2009 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers:

Norton captures nearly 90% of the vote of the larger group that is strongly opposed to the health care plan. Bennet and Romanoff get similar support from the group that is strongly in favor of it.

All four of the Republican candidates lead their Democratic rivals among male voters, but Norton is the lone GOP hopeful who also has a double-digit lead among women voters and among those not affiliated with either of the major political parties.

Giuliani leads feisty Brown rally in North End

A feisty crowd of several hundred shouted “Rudy, Rudy” and “Go, Scott, Go” this morning in the North End as former New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani campaigned for surging Republican Scott Brown in his bid for US Senate.

-

Another chant from the throng declared, “The liberals are going! The liberals are going!” and a sign read, “It’s our turn for a change.” Giuliani fired up the crowd by recalling his stump work on the victorious Republican campaigns of former governors William Weld, Paul Cellucci, and Mitt Romney.

Brown Reportedly Raising $1 Million Per Day in Senate Race

Republican candidate Scott Brown has raised money at a rate of $1 million a day this past week in his bid for U.S. Senate in Massachusetts, according to one report.

The Daily Caller, a new online publication launched by conservative Tucker Carlson, reported Friday that the GOP state senator has raked in most of that money through online donations, as his campaign sees a last-minute surge before the special election set for Tuesday.

Is the [Boston] Globe getting off Coakley’s bus?

The Globe has been in the tank for Coakley. It not only endorsed her, it also covered for her when Coakley media consultant Michael Meehan roughed up the Weekly Standard’s John McCormack following Coakley’s closed-door Washington fund-raising trip this week. The Globe ran the AP story on McCormack’s close encounter with Meehan under the heading “Reporter takes stumble chasing Mass. candidate.”

McGrory’s column today is “Race is in a spinout.” It is written from the perspective of a liberal Democrat who is distraught over Coakley’s campaign. From Scott Brown’s perspective, of course, the race is not in a spinout. The race is on track. Brown, however, is upsetting the Globe’s natural order.

Dorothy Rabinowitz on Martha Coakley and the Fells Acres Sex Abuse Cases

Attorney General Martha Coakley—who had proven so dedicated a representative of the system that had brought the Amirault family to ruin, and who had fought so relentlessly to preserve their case—has recently expressed her view of this episode. Questioned about the Amiraults in the course of her current race for the U.S. Senate, she told reporters of her firm belief that the evidence against the Amiraults was “formidable” and that she was entirely convinced “those children were abused at day care center by the three defendants.”

Shocking Surge (for Brown)

Update: the DSCC is now pulling their attack ad after using an image of the World Trade Center — which was apparently mistakenly included in their haste to stop the Coakley freefall…..

“Using the image of a site where over 2,700 Americans died in a terrorist attack to distort Scott Brown’s position on regulating Wall Street is both distasteful and disrespectful. Martha Coakley should immediately renounce this ad and call for it to be removed from the airwaves,” he said.

A spokesman for the DSCC, Eric Schultz, said the image should not have appeared in the ad, and that it was being pulled and aired with a different image.

_____________________________________________

Kristofer Lorelli is the Senior Editor of Race42012 and can be contacted at lorville@rogers.com, on Facebook and Twitter/Kris_Lorelli

Scott Brown surges to a double-digit lead?

Pajamas Media/Cross Target 2010 Massachusetts U.S. Senate Poll

Thinking about next Tuesday’s special election for US Senate. The candidates are Republican Scott Brown and Democrat Martha Coakley. If the election were today, who would you vote for?

• Scott Brown 53.9%
• Martha Coakley 38.5%
• Undecided 7.6%

And do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Scott Brown?

• Favorable 60.5%
• Unfavorable 27.5%
• Unsure 12.1%

And what about Martha Coakley. Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Martha Coakley?

• Favorable 38.5%
• Unfavorable 50.5%
• Undecided 11%

Only a small percentage of all voters will cast a ballot in this Tuesdays special election for US Senate. How likely is it that you will actually vote in this election on January 19th?

• Definitely will vote 71.9%
• Might or might not vote 21.4%
• Probably won’t vote 6.8%

Are you a male or female?

• Male 43.3%
• Female 56.7%

Do you consider yourself a Republican, a Democrat or something else.

• Republican 20.3%
• Democrat 36.6%
• Something else 43.1%

A new poll taken Thursday evening for Pajamas Media by CrossTarget – an Alexandria VA survey research firm – shows Scott Brown, a Republican, leading Martha Coakley, a Democrat, by 15.4% in Tuesday’s special election for the open Massachusetts US Senate seat. The poll of 946 likely voters was conducted by telephone using interactive voice technology (IVR) and has a margin of error of +/- 3.19%.

… according to The Telegraph.

Continued from yesterday (the number following the name is their 2007 ranking).

Don’t shoot the messenger.

1. Dick Cheney (6)

2. Rush Limbaugh (5)

3. Matt Drudge (3)

4. Sarah Palin (-)

5. Robert Gates (7)

6. Glenn Beck (18)

7.Roger Ailes (23)

8. David Petraeus (2)

9. Paul Ryan (-)

10.Tim Pawlenty (-)

11. Mitt Romney (10)

12. George W. Bush (21)

13. John Roberts (8)

14. Haley Barbour (16)

15. Eric Cantor (-)

16. John McCain (9)

17. Mike Pence (19)

18. Bob McDonnell (-)

19. Newt Gingrich (4)

20. Mike Huckabee (11)

Update: Sorry — left out the link. Click it to see the Top 100 Conservatives and Liberals with a write-up on each.

Tim Pawlenty has kicked off his presidential campaign with a bold message: he’s pro-freedom!

Future campaign themes are expected to include:  justice, hope, American values, life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness.

Is this some kind of joke? John McCain passed up putting Pawlenty on his ticket because he was seen as being too white-bread, too conventional. He has boldly refuted this narrative by coming out strongly for freedom. He has even endorsed Scott Brown for Massachusetts senator: sounding more like a grade-school civics textbook than the next leader of the free world, Pawlenty declares that Brown will “bring freedom to Massachusetts.” Does anyone even know what that means?

We just elected a man who rose to prominence based on tiresome platitudes. If Tim Pawlenty wants to differentiate himself from Sarah Palin or Mitt Romney, he ought to come up with a better theme than “freedom.”

Suffolk University/7News Massachusetts Senatorial Survey

• Scott Brown (R) 50%
• Martha Coakley (D) 46%
• Joseph Kennedy (I) 3%

In your opinion, who won the debates?

• Scott Brown 41%
• Martha Coakley 25%
• Joseph Kennedy 2%

As you may know, Senator Ted Kennedy’s widow Vicki and his nephew Joe Kennedy have endorsed Martha Coakley for U.S. Senate. Does that endorsement make you more likely or less likely to vote for Martha Coakley?

• More likely 20%
• Less likely 27%

Have you seen the Scott Brown political ad comparing himself to John F. Kennedy? If so, how effective was this ad?

• Very effective 13%
• Somewhat effective 23%
• Somewhat ineffective 19%
• Very ineffective 42%

Is Scott Brown more like John F. Kennedy or George W. Bush, or Neither?

• John F. Kennedy 13%
• George W. Bush 28%
• Neither 35%

As a U.S. Senator, do you think Martha Coakley will be an independent voice or toe the Democratic party line?

• Independent voice 24%
• Toe the Democratic party line 64%

Do you support the Massachusetts near universal healthcare law?

• Yes 54%
• No 36%

Can Massachusetts afford its healthcare system?

• Yes 27%
• No 62%

Generally speaking, do you strongly favor, somewhat favor, somewhat oppose, or strongly oppose the healthcare reform plan proposed by President Obama and the Congressional Democrats?

• Strongly favor 20%
• Somewhat favor 27%
• Somewhat oppose 11%
• Strongly oppose 37%

Do you support the proposed national near-universal healthcare law?

• Yes 36%
• No 51%

Can the federal government afford the proposed national healthcare plan?

• Yes 32%
• No 61%

Compared to other states, do you think Massachusetts is out of the political mainstream?

• Yes 41%
• No 52%

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Scott Brown 57% / 19% {+38%}
• Bill Clinton 59% / 34% {+25%}
• Barack Obama 55% / 35% {+20%}
• Tim Cahill 32% / 17% {+15%}
• Martha Coakley 49% / 41% {+8%}
• Mitt Romney 49% / 43% {+6%}
• Joseph Kennedy 19% / 25% {-6%}
• Deval Patrick 41% / 50% {-9%}
• Sarah Palin 25% / 60% {-35%}

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing as President?

• Approve 48%
• Disapprove 43%

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Deval Patrick is doing as Governor?

• Approve 35%
• Disapprove 56%

Regardless of who you personally support for U.S. Senate, who do you think will be our next U.S. Senator?

• Martha Coakley 64%
• Scott Brown 26%
• Joseph Kennedy 2%

Survey of 500 likely voters was conducted January 11-13, 2010. The margin of error is +/- 4.38 percentage points. Party ID breakdown: 39% Democrat; 15% Republican; 45% Independent.

Danny Glover tries to sound even stupider than Pat Robertson, and may have succeeded. Decide for yourself: “When we see what we did at the climate summit in Copenhagen, this is the response, this is what happens, you know what I’m sayin’?”

Yep, I know what you’re sayin’, Danny. You’re saying Haiti is being punished because the world has disrespected Gaia. Or something like that.

Danny starts yapping at about 0:55, and gets progressively (pun intended) dumber as he goes along, hitting a crescendo just after the two minute mark.

Catch Martha Coakley telling a radio host that “The law says that people are allowed to have that. And so then you can have religious freedom, but [devout Catholics] probably shouldn’t work in the emergency room.”

This is Massachusetts, after all. One of the most Catholic states in the union.

I cannot help it. This lady reminds me so strongly of Dede Scozzofara, it’s scary. You remember Dede? The hapless Republican candidate from last November’s special election in NY-23? They both were picked to run as the candidate of the overwhelming party. They both expected to glide into office with little or no effort on their part. Just mail in their campaigns. That’s all they were expecting to do. They both were challenged late in the campaign. They both turned out to be less than ideal candidates – bumbling and stumbling along almost in a daze, making unforced error after unforced error. They both cost their respective party huge sums of money they didn’t expect to spend.

Dede lost her campaign as I recall… .

No predictions from me, but still. This lady is self-destructing before our eyes.

Scott Brown: 50%
Martha Coakley: 46%
Suffolk University/7News | The poll was conducted Monday through Wednesday and surveyed 500 registered likely voters.

From the Boston Herald:

The poll shows Brown, a state senator from Wrentham, besting Coakley, the state’s attorney general, by 50 percent to 46 percent, the first major survey to show Brown in the lead. Unenrolled long-shot Joseph L. Kennedy, an information technology executive with no relation to the famous family, gets 3 percent of the vote. Only 1 percent of voters were undecided.

Paleologos said bellweather models show high numbers of independent voters turning out on election day, which benefits Brown, who has 65 percent of that bloc compared to Coakley’s 30 percent. Kennedy earns just 3 percent of the independent vote, and 1 percent are undecided.

Scott Brown has also released a new ad hitting Coakley for her strong lobbiest connections:

Internet data also paints a grim picture for Coakley.
From: New Social Media Polling Data Suggests Republican Scott Brown Will Defeat Democrat Martha Coakley

–  A 10:1 advantage over Coakley in terms of video content viewership on
YouTube
–  A 4:1 edge in terms of number of fans on Facebook
–  More followers, more list appearances and far more buzz overall on
Twitter

—————————————————————————————

David Schmidt is the Director of HucksArmy and reachable at david.schmidt@evercor.com, or on Facebook and Twitter

…and she did this while criticizing Sarah Palin. Oh my.

“Me, Linc-, Lincoln, but okay.”

H/T: Breitbart.tv

—————————————————————————————

David Schmidt is the Director of HucksArmy and reachable at david.schmidt@evercor.com, or on Facebook and Twitter

Former U.S. Senator Norman Coleman, only months from a controversial recount of his 2008 senate re-election race, a recount in which his opponent “magically” gained enough votes from questionable sources to defeat him, is back in the center of conversation of Minnesota politics. This time he is a putative candidate for governor in a race that is wide open, and notably lacking in favorites in either party.

Recent polls show Coleman leading any of the other Republican hopefuls for the top state executive job, but trailing another former U.S. senator, Democrat (DFLer) Mark Dayton should they win their party’s nomination and face each other in November.

A little history is in order here. Coleman lost the race for governor in 1998 to Jesse Ventura, a celebrity amateur politician, who ran on the Independence Party ticket that year. (He outpolled his former boss, DFL Attorney General Skip Humphrey in that race.) Coleman, originally a DFLer, switched parties in 1997. For two full terms, he was the very successful mayor of the state’s capital city St. Paul. In 2002, he announced again for governor, but Vice President Dick Cheney, speaking for the White House, called to persuade him to switch to the senate race against then-incumbent DFLer Paul Wellstone. A few days before the election that year, with the race too close to call, Wellstone was tragically killed in a campaign plane accident, and even though the DFL substituted former Vice President Walter Mondale for Wellstone, Coleman won.

A natural executive with no previous legislative experience, Coleman performed well in the senate, associating himself often with the moderate wing of the party. A long-time prolifer, Coleman did not arouse anger among social conservatives, but as a vote against drilling in Alaska, for the bank bailouts, and for stimulus legislation, the economically conservative wing of the GOP became increasingly unhappy with him. In 2008, facing a grassroots surge for the Obama candidacy in the state, and a third-party candidate who got 16% of the vote, Coleman was only about 700 votes ahead the day after the election. Correcting for errors, this

was reduced to about 300 votes before an official recount began. Combining inept legal counsel and strategy of his own, aggressive and smart tactics by his opponent, an embarrassingly unfair recount led to his eventual defeat.

It was then thought by most political observers (including this one) that Coleman’s electoral career in politics was over. He had been the target of many bitter attacks by his opponent in 2008 (many of them unfair, including attacks on his family), and after 30 years of public service, being over 60 years old, and having limited financial resources, it seemed to make sense for him to take a lucrative job in the private sector.

Two matters have intervened. First, a truly ideal job has so far eluded Coleman (not surprising in this weak economy), and his friend Governor Tim Pawlenty decided to retire, presumably to run for president in 2012. With the possibility that Minnesota might lose a congressional seat, and the certainly that state will be redistricted in 2012, holding the governorship has become critical to the state GOP for survival. Nevertheless, being shut out of the governor’s residence for 20 years (with all the patronage and influence that accompanies it), had made the DFL the odds-on favorite to win the race in 2010.

A third factor has now intervened. The DFL field has 3-5 major candidates, but no overwhelming favorite. Even if one DFLer gets party endorsement, there will be a bitter and expensive primary only seven weeks before election day. Finally, national momentum has shifted sharply so far this year against the liberal Democrats, and in races all across the country, Republicans are now favored to win.

The GOP gubernatorial field, objectively speaking, is on its surface weak at best. One of the major candidates, the only woman in the race, has already pulled out, anticipating Coleman’s entry. The two remaining major candidates are state legislator Tom Emmer and state house minority leader Marty Siefert. Each are talented, each have serious political vulnerabilities, and neither are well-known. The fact that Coleman leads each of them by 5 to 1 margins in polls with only months to go before election day makes this assertion indisputable.

What is disputable, however, is how strong Coleman is with his party’s grassroots, and with the GOP political class in the state that will be necessary to fund and staff his campaign. Conservatives are visibly angry with Coleman, and could run a candidate of their own in November.

Coleman’s dilemma, then, is how to enter the race in a positive and credible way, and to have a plan for his party’s nomination without, if possible, a primary, or, if not possible, not creating the kind of intraparty conflicts which the DFL now seems heading for in September.

Considering the passions, ideological pronouncements and the impact of national politics this year, it seems a very daunting, if impossible, political dilemma for this well-known Minnesota political figure. But time is running out for a decision, perhaps only a few days or a week or two at the most. His entry into the race, while now seemingly likely, is not inevitable.

In a 30-year career of public service, marked by controversy and triumph, accomplishment and defeat, this will be the greatest test of his durability and his political survival.

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

-Please visit Mr. Casselman’s personal site, the Prairie Editor Blog.

Rasmussen New Jersey Gubernatorial Survey

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of Chris Christie?

• Favorable 57% (49%) [48%] <49%> {47%} (46%)
• Unfavorable 35% (47%) [50%] <49%> {47%} (51%)

What is the biggest problem facing Chris Christie as he takes over as governor of New Jersey….taxes, government spending, unemployment, education, crime or corruption?

• Taxes 33%
• Government spending 28%
• Unemployment 22%
• Corruption 8%
• Education 5%
• Crime 1%

What issue should Chris Christie tackle first as Governor?

• Government spending 34%
• Taxes 29%
• Unemployment 24%
• Corruption 6%
• Education 2%
• Crime 2%

How likely is it that Chris Christie will be able to improve the economy in New Jersey?

• Very likely 9%
• Somewhat likely 41%
• Not very likely 34%
• Not at all likely 6%

How likely is it that Chris Christie will be able to cut property taxes in New Jersey?

• Very likely 9%
• Somewhat likely 30%
• Not very likely 44%
• Not at all likely 9%

How difficult will it be for Christie to work with the Democratic-controlled Legislature?

• Very difficult 41%
• Somewhat difficult 46%
• Not very difficult 9%
• Not at all difficult 1%

How would you rate the job Jon Corzine has been doing as Governor?

• Strongly approve 9% (17%) [20%] <14%> {11%} (15%)
• Somewhat approve 27% (20%) [21%] <25%> {30%} (25%)
• Somewhat disapprove 21% (15%) [14%] <15%> {16%} (18%)
• Strongly disapprove 41% (46%) [44%] <44%> {42%} (41%)

How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President?

• Strongly approve 31% [38%] <35%> {34%} (38%)
• Somewhat approve 22% [17%] <18%> {19%} (19%)
• Somewhat disapprove 10% [10%] <11%> {11%} (10%)
• Strongly disapprove 37% [34%] <35%> {35%} (33%)

Survey of 500 likely voters was conducted January 13, 2010. The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted November 9, 2009 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted October 29 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted October 26 are in angle brackets. Results from the poll conducted October 19 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted October 14 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers:

Democrats think that tackling unemployment should be the incoming Governor’s top priority. For Republicans and unaffiliated voters, cutting government spending is atop the list.

Rasmussen Minnesota Political Survey

How would you rate the job Tim Pawlenty has been doing as Governor?

• Strongly approve 25% [28%] (26%)
• Somewhat approve 28% [24%] (30%)
• Somewhat disapprove 16% [22%] (13%)
• Strongly disapprove 28% [25%] (30%)

Suppose Governor Tim Pawlenty runs for President in 2012 and wins the Republican nomination. If Pawlenty was the Republican presidential candidate, would you vote for him?

• Yes 37% [42%]
• No 46% [46%]

Has Governor Pawlenty’s potential run for President had a positive impact or negative impact on the job he’s been doing as Governor?

• Positive 22%
• Negative 43%

How would you rate the job Al Franken has been doing as Senator?

• Strongly approve 25% [24%]
• Somewhat approve 25% [26%]
• Somewhat disapprove 11% [16%]
• Strongly disapprove 36% [29%]

How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President?

• Strongly approve 36%
• Somewhat approve 16%
• Somewhat disapprove 9%
• Strongly disapprove 39%

Generally speaking, do you strongly favor, somewhat favor, somewhat oppose or strongly oppose the health care reform plan proposed by President Obama and the congressional Democrats?

• Strongly favor 20% (29%)
• Somewhat favor 26% (20%)
• Somewhat oppose 8% (12%)
• Strongly oppose 43% (36%)

Overall, how would you rate President Obama’s handling of the situation in Afghanistan?

• Excellent 15%
• Good 31%
• Fair 27%
• Poor 25%

Survey of 1,000 likely voters was conducted January 11, 2010. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted November 10, 2009 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted September 15, 2009 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers:

Minnesota voters with health insurance are evenly divided over Franken’s job performance: 48% approve, and 48% disapprove. While 24% in this group strongly approve, however, 38% strongly disapprove.

Among those who don’t have health insurance in Minnesota though, 74% approve of Franken’s performance, with 42% who strongly approve. Just 27% disapprove, including only seven percent (7%) who strognly disapprove.

Only 13% of Minnesota Republicans and 39% of voters not affiliated with either major party approve of the hrealth care plan, compared to 82% of Democrats.

Eighty-eight percent (88%) of Democratic voters in the state approve of Franken’s job performance, a view shared by 46% of unaffiliateds and just 13% of Republicans.

Rasmussen Ohio Gubernatorial Survey

• John Kasich 47% [48%] (46%)
• Ted Strickland 40% [39%] (45%)
• Other 4% [3%] (3%)
• Not sure 8% [11%] (7%)

How would you rate the job Ted Strickland has been doing as Governor?

• Strongly approve 15% [11%] (15%)
• Somewhat approve 28% [37%] (32%)
• Somewhat disapprove 28% [26%] (24%)
• Strongly disapprove 26% [24%] (26%)

Survey of 500 likely voters was conducted January 12, 2010. The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted December 7 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted September 23 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers:

Male voters prefer Kasich by 19 points over Strickland. Women favor the incumbent by four. Both candidates carry nearly 80% of the voters in their own party, but voters not affiliated with either party like Kasich 53% to 23%.