According to Gateway Pundit, Illinois gubernatorial candidate Adam Andrzejewski announced at a rally today that an internal poll, conducted by a DC-based conservative group, showed him surging to within two percentage points of the lead (inside the margin of error).
Now – the standard disclaimer here is that this is and INTERNAL poll and that the results have not actually been released (expecting that tomorrow). However, I would guess that this is probably an accurate picture considering all of the dynamics that I’ve seen in this race.
For one, the last two polls showed Andrzejewski at 11% – which is itself a significant up-tick from polls the preceding weeks showing him in single digits. So, we know he was going up.
Second, Andrzejewski has been running rings around the other candidates in the national conservative online media – appearing on Andrew Napolitano’s web TV show and drawing glowing hagiographies at The American Spectator, BigGovernment, RedState, and other prominent blogs. In a GOP primary in the dead of winter – we expect a more informed and active electorate.
Third, all recent polling has showed a huge chunk of undecided voters (17% according to PPP). Andrzejewski has the most late momentum and should pick up late deciders. Furthermore, most of the undecideds I’ve seen on the blogs are either Tea Partiers trying to decide between tea-friendly candidates Andrzejewski and Dan Proft – or downstate conservatives trying to decide between Andrzejewski and Bill Brady. Proft has languished in last place in all polls AND almost the entire Illinois Tea Party apparatus has endorsed Andrzejewski. Therefore I expect tea-drinking wafflers to pick Andrzejewski. Brady has shown strength recently, but that was before Andrzejewski’s online surge. So, I’m expecting Brady’s support to tick down (Brady people like Adam a lot but just didn’t think he was competitive) and Brady-Andrzejewski wafflers to settle on Adam.
Fourth – the wheels are coming off the Jim Ryan campaign according to the last numbers, which showed Ryan sinking like a rock. A lot of Ryan’s people may have bled to McKenna or Dillard – but Ryan is really attacking McKenna, so further bleeding may not be in that direction, and Dillard is taking a LOT of hits for his appearance in an Obama campaign ad. So – not expecting much momentum from either Dillard, Ryan, or McKenna. All of these three are having issues, and McKenna will be ther only one with any potential upward movement (moving up slowly and only by virtue of his ability to buy LOTS of TV ads)
Fifth - according to RedState, the last debate turned into a five-on-one attack session against Andrzejewski. If Andrzejewski were not gaining quickly in THE OTHER CAMPAIGNS’ internals, then they would have trained more fire on Brady and McKenna. Since they ALL treined fire on Andrzejewski, that would be a sign that he’s an emerging threat.
So – I’m expecting to see Moneybags McKenna hold a slim lead when Andrzejewski releases his numbers, with Brady falling into a competitive third behind Andrzejewski and Proft and Ryan both collapsing. I’m also expecting the numbers to continue rolling Adam’s way as we head into a big upset on Tuesday.
January 31st, 2010 at 8:14 pm
January 31st, 2010 at 8:22 pm
The scenarios you outline are plausible, and I really hope you’re right. I hope we see at least one more ‘real’ poll tomorrow — I had expected either the Trib or the S-T to have something today.
Seems a bit incestuous for R4’12 to have a link to a Gateway article that links to R4’12.
Semi-OT: Best wishes to the Dillard family on the death of his father.
January 31st, 2010 at 8:36 pm
Adam does not have pretty sound bytes like his opponents, but only Adam has real Policy to help the people of Illinois
January 31st, 2010 at 8:50 pm
Illinois Governor Race Focuses on Ailing Finances
Blagojevich Takes Back Seat as Candidates Say Fixing Crumbling State’s Economy Will Require Drastic Action
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704343104575033690991748972.html?mod=googlenews_wsj#printMode
January 31st, 2010 at 8:58 pm
Andrzejewski has the potential to be the American Lech Walesa.
January 31st, 2010 at 8:59 pm
[...] Race 4 2008 has a great take on Andrzejewski’s surge. Comments [...]
January 31st, 2010 at 11:29 pm
I hope all of this isn’t too little too late. Why weren’t more national conservative big shots hyping Andrzejewski sooner?
January 31st, 2010 at 11:56 pm
Report: McKenna Didn’t Tell Party He Was in Poll
http://www.nbcchicago.com/news/politics/Full-Andy-McKenna-Ethics-Report-Released-83204262.html
http://illinoisreview.typepad.com/files/full-mckenna-ethics-report-1.pdf
January 31st, 2010 at 11:59 pm
Google Trends doesn’t really tell anything as far as who will win in the primary but I think a safe bet is McKenna or Andrezejwski. I’m pulling for Andrezejwski…still has momentum and there are a lot of undecided voters out there.
February 1st, 2010 at 12:14 am
The Scorecard is reporting Dillard is suspending his campaign due to his father’s death. Is he out, or just on hiatus? Does this shake up the race, if so, how?
February 1st, 2010 at 12:17 am
If this polling is correct (which I’m skeptical of), then the Republicans have a problem on their hands. If Andrzejewski’s the nominee, the Republicans will lose any chance at taking the Illinois governorship especially if Hynes is the Democratic nominee.
We need McKenna or Dillard.
February 1st, 2010 at 12:19 am
10– Just on hiatus. It could shake up the race, depending on how Illinois GOP voters view that. I doubt it will affect the race much, if at all.
February 1st, 2010 at 12:20 am
7 – National conservative blogs needed to be convinced that the race was important (thanks to Kirk Dillard for that) and that they had good reason to select Andrzejewski as opposed to Brady, Proft, or McKenna (all of whom made arguments that they were the real conservative in the race). Took longer than we wanted but also caused us to be the only candidate peaking on election day (Brady, McKenna, Dillard all peaked earlier this month, Ryan peaked in December). Also have the advantage of catching the other campaigns with their pants down – and after the last attack mailers (ignoring Andrzejewski) went out. So there’s nothing standing in Adam’s way down the home stretch. It’s exactly what Brown did to Coakley – just caught fire a little later in the game – but luckily Andrzejewski is not as far off the lead as Brown was .
February 1st, 2010 at 12:21 am
New media help conservatives get their anti-Obama message out
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/01/31/AR2010013102860_pf.html
February 1st, 2010 at 12:26 am
I hope you’re right Adam!
February 1st, 2010 at 12:44 am
Jimmie, I think the current national political climate favors outsiders over insiders. As a matter of fact that is probably going to be the case for the next four years…till the outsiders become insiders.
Not to state the obvious but 70% of Americans have unfavorable view of both parties.
February 1st, 2010 at 1:38 am
11 – You’re missing it entirely by assuming that moderation on a left-right spectrum is what is needed in this election. McKenna, Dillard, et al do badly against Hynes/Quinn becasue they are part of the establishment and hance part of the problem (especially McKenna).
This election is coming down not on left-right spectrum but based on the relatively non-partisan issue of tackling corruption in Illinois. The Andrzejewski paltform is the most workable in terms of cutting corruption, and it’s based on non-ideological good government practices. Half of his platform stems from Jindal and Palin (state checkbooks online), but the other half (forensic audit) was actually taken from Kathleen Sebelius’ playbook in Kansas.
Andrzejewski is a solid conservative but he is running a non-ideological, tough-on-corruption campaign. The excitement that platform will create will go above and beyond any calculations about where one sits on the left-right scale. I for one think Andrzejewski will poll better than either Dillard or McKenna.
February 1st, 2010 at 1:42 am
10 – First off – condolences to Mr. Dillard shold be top priority over political considertations.
He is putting the campaign on hiatus but not dropping out. Now, this might hurt a little bit politically in that he is likely to miss the last few days of campaigning. However, this event could also put his name in the news and potentially draw sympathy votes. So from a purely political perspective the issue of the campaign hiatus is probably a wash in that any negatives from not campaigning will be offset by positive publicity.
February 1st, 2010 at 1:56 am
Pruce,
“Andrzejewski has the potential to be the American Lech Walesa.”
WTH does that even mean? He could lead a series of strikes that topples our system of government?
February 1st, 2010 at 3:59 am
Adam Andrzejewski spoke today in O’Fallon, Illinois. During his stop here in Western Illinois Andrzejewski spoke about the challenges that faced Lech Walesa in defeating the communist government in Poland. He told the standing room only crowd today that, like Lech Walesa and his Solidarity movement, he will help bring principles and values back to Illinois government.
Here’s a good article that might help clarify: http://gatewaypundit.firstthings.com/2010/01/adam-andrzejewski-like-lech-walesa-in-poland-we-will-bring-principles-values-back-to-illinois-government-video/
Check out this video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XouV7o-ZPUQ&feature=player_embedded
February 1st, 2010 at 4:23 am
ugh I’m just really pissed that some of his opponents are now making robo-calls claiming that he dropped from the race!!
February 1st, 2010 at 5:01 am
“WTH does that even mean? He could lead a series of strikes that topples our system of government?” Shhhhh, how ironic.
February 1st, 2010 at 9:00 am
[...] a video clip from Jim’s exclusive interview with Andrzejewski:Both Jim at Gateway Pundit and Adam Brickley at Race 4 2012 report that Andrzejewski’s internal poll shows him surging — which I don’t doubt, [...]
February 1st, 2010 at 9:07 am
Big thanks to Adam Brickley for this thread. We are Andrzejewski backers and pray that he takes home the prize tomorrow.
Peoria Journal Star has an article this morning that mentions some Dems plan to sit out tomorrow as they are so unhappy with both Hynes and Quinn.
IL is forecasting snow tomorrow but not enough to call out the salt trucks.
Never a fan of Dillard due to the Obama connection, but it is sad about Dillard’s father.
February 1st, 2010 at 10:40 am
This is a battle against a machine which has also corrupted our mainstream media outlets.
The fact that Adam Andrzejewski is where he’s at today is a direct result of people spreading the word, and this is what the Tea Party movement is all about. I am also impressed with Adam’s discipline on keeping this campaign about the people and not accepting McKennalike donations – this one’s all about the IL voter!
Andrzejewski has come a long way, but there’s still more we can do. Get out your signs, send the donations, and keep getting the word out. Lets make sure to follow through so IL’s cycle of political corruption can finally stop this Groundhog’s day
GO ADAM!
PS
https://adamforillinois.com/Donate/ – every little bit helps.
February 1st, 2010 at 11:28 am
Why do you allow an anti-tea party ad on your site?
February 1st, 2010 at 11:30 am
27 For the money.
February 1st, 2010 at 12:34 pm
26 – the google ads are automatic. We have no coontrol over their content.
February 1st, 2010 at 1:34 pm
26 – We had a post several days ago pointing out that SEIU is behind these ads.
February 1st, 2010 at 2:12 pm
I watched the ABC debate, and Andrzejewski performed poorly, some of his adds have also been in poor taste. I certainly hope we aren’t pinning our hopes on this guy.
February 1st, 2010 at 2:23 pm
aft – I hear you on the debates. In addition, why are we being told about a leaked internal poll of which the actual results are some sort of secret. Show me the numbers.
February 2nd, 2010 at 5:46 pm
Leaving the office.
Voting for A.A.
m00tpoint