PPP (D) Alaska Political Survey
Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Sarah Palin?
- Favorable 47%
- Unfavorable 45%
Among Independents
- Favorable 36%
- Unfavorable 55%
Among Republicans
- Favorable 78%
- Unfavorable 15%
Among Democrats
- Favorable 24%
- Unfavorable 74%
Among Men
- Favorable 50%
- Unfavorable 42%
Among Women
- Favorable 44%
- Unfavorable 49%
Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Sean Parnell’s job performance?
- Approve 58%
- Disapprove 19%
Among Independents
- Approve 55%
- Disapprove 20%
Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Mark Begich’s job performance?
- Approve 35%
- Disapprove 51%
Among Independents
- Approve 37%
- Disapprove 48%
Do you approve or disapprove of Barack Obama’s job performance?
- Approve 37%
- Disapprove 56%
Among Independents
- Approve 43%
- Disapprove 49%
Survey of 710 Alaska voters was conducted January 27-28, 2010. The margin of error is +/- 3.7 percentage points. Party ID breakdown: 50% Independent; 32% Republican; 18% Democrat.
January 30th, 2010 at 7:35 pm
Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Sean Parnell’s job performance?
Approve 58%
Disapprove 19%
-Great job, Sean!!! It free-ups Sarah to run!!!
January 30th, 2010 at 7:39 pm
Aron, do we have the fav/unfavs for Huckabee among Arkansas folks?
I’m curious of how they feel about his 10 1/2 years as their Governor and how much they love him even today.
January 30th, 2010 at 8:19 pm
Look how low Begich is!
Palin would destroy him If she ran for his seat in 2014.
January 30th, 2010 at 8:21 pm
Aron,
This poll was already posted yesterday
January 30th, 2010 at 8:23 pm
Not on this site it wasn’t.
January 30th, 2010 at 8:24 pm
Palin has a pretty high approval rating with democrats in Alaska (24%) because she took on the GOP esablishment.
January 30th, 2010 at 8:26 pm
this poll is pretty much an outlier, because men make up 53.1% of the state population, and they only polled 48% men.
January 30th, 2010 at 8:30 pm
Alaskan pollsters have her at 55% Favorable 41% unfavorable, so this poll is def an outlier.
January 30th, 2010 at 8:35 pm
I wouldn’t be so quick to make such an assertion. First of all, favorability numbers generally trend higher than approval ratings. And, among Independents, who comprise half of Alaska’s electorate, 55 percent have an unfavorable opinion of Palin, while 48% disapprove of Begich’s job performance.
AK, are you of the belief that Palin is leaning toward a senate run instead of pursuing the presidency in 2012; perhaps waiting patiently for 2016?
January 30th, 2010 at 8:42 pm
AK,
Population breakdown is irrelevant. What matters is who turns out to vote. Based on the exit polls in the 2008 presidential election, 53 percent of the Alaskan electorate was female; 47% was male.
January 30th, 2010 at 8:43 pm
Begich is at 35/51 not 35/48
If he is doing that bad in a poll I think is an outlier, then Palin would Crush him.
January 30th, 2010 at 8:48 pm
Palin is much higher in other Alaskan polls so I take this one with a grain of salt.
http://community.adn.com/node/146678
January 30th, 2010 at 8:50 pm
Aron,
Actually, PPP(D) is a pollster that doens’t see a distinction between approval and favorable numbers as Jensen has made the comparison without noting the distinction.
Second, my favorite pollster Hays Research Group finds her at 55/41.
Third, PPP(D) is effectively finding that there are more Republicans nationwide than Republicans in Alaska. Exit polls show the percentage of the Alaska electorate that was Republican at 39 and 41 in 2008 and 2004, respectively. The poll seems to go against what they are finding nationwide in terms of an increase in the percentage of the electorate that considers itself Republican.
Begich is probably hoping she or another Republican wins the presidency in 2012 because he probably keeps his seat in 2014 as Alaskans will probably see him as a check against the Republican.
January 30th, 2010 at 8:54 pm
AK,
You’re testing my patience. Please read carefully. Begich is at 37/48 among Independents.
BTW, the Hays Research poll to which you’re referring didn’t ask respondents if they have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Sarah Palin, but posed the question: “Would you say you feel positive or negative about Sarah Palin?”
Also, the Hays sample was comprised of just 400 adults, whereas PPP used a more accurate sample of 710 registered voters.
January 30th, 2010 at 9:00 pm
Actually PPP (D) has a tendency of editorializing against the results of it’s own polls, re the advantage for Fox in the media poll. Most people know now, that Begich owes his seat to a false
indictment, had he leaned more to the center, he would be in better shape, but he has chosen to be the frost bitten version of Franken
January 30th, 2010 at 9:05 pm
So the poll should read she is polling 10 points higher than Obama, and has an eqiivalently lower dissaproval than same. But you wouldn’t want to advertise that point
January 30th, 2010 at 9:10 pm
Aron,
So you seem to be arguing that an “adults” sample would be more favorable to Palin than a “registered voters” sample (if we are assuming no inconsistency between the polls).
You also seem to be arguing that a “positive/negative” feeling poll would be better for Palin than a “favorable/unfavorable” poll. It seems to me that you’d get lower numbers for the former than the latter considering that the former question appears to be asking for a stronger response than the latter one.
January 30th, 2010 at 9:22 pm
TB,
I wasn’t arguing anything; simply noting the differences between the two surveys. Incidentally, I agree with you on both points — that a registered voter sample generally yields a more conservative result than just adults, and ‘negative’ implies, well, a more negative connotation than merely ‘unfavorable.’
narciso,
Actually, Palin’s favorability rating being only 10 points higher than Obama’s job approval is nothing to brag about, especially when you consider that McCain/Palin beat Obama/Biden in ’08 by a 60-38% margin in Alaska.
January 30th, 2010 at 9:28 pm
#16 Likewise, “positive” implies a stronger “connotation” than merely “favorable.”
Look, I don’t think the two polls can be reconciled. I suppose one could argue that it’s possible that Palin has slipped in AK since mid-November but it’s unlikely considering her numbers haven’t changed from the mid-November/early December polling nationally. In any event, looking at these numbers (with the caveat in mind that PPP(D) finds no distinction between approval and favorability), I’m not sensing much difficulty for her considering that the 24% of Democrats who like her would likely vote for her in a general election while the 15% of Republicans who have an unfavorable of her would probably vote for her anyway (considering that Obama is at 4% approval in the state and generally has been getting barely above his Republican approval number against her in his national polling matchups with Obama).
January 30th, 2010 at 9:30 pm
Aron,
By the way, PPP(D) is going to show Murkowski likely under 50% as well on Monday. No other Alaska poll has shown this.
It appears that she’s not doing well with indies. My guess is that PPP(D) found a left-leaning group of independents.
January 30th, 2010 at 9:41 pm
The narrower the screen, the more informed a sample you get. Now the Hays poll was overdone both at the top, their poll was off by 20 last time, and at the bottom. But considering the non stop garbage spewed by the netroots, the A D News, the Alaska Dispatch, etc, etc, in this sample. The point of the
effort of the last year and a half was to sabotage her reform effort, and that of her successor.
January 30th, 2010 at 11:41 pm
Mark Begich will be a one term Senator…..period. There is so much anger and frustration with the city union contracts and how he lied out right to the citizens. YOu know have the possibility of an investigation into begich and other city handlers on this problem. The citizens of Anchorage let alone Alaska will not vote this dolt back into office. Just the other day when i was driving home from Anchorage i happend to catch a liberal show on the radio out of Homer, i believe the only program in this state for the liberals, anyway Begich was on after Obamas state of the Union and here is what he said about Obama. He is not leftist enough from Begich’s point of view. Can you believe that, let any other Republican run against his corruption and his socialist mindset and it wont even be a race.
January 31st, 2010 at 12:07 am
In any macro political environment that is not strongly anti-GOP…Mark Begich will lose reelection.
January 31st, 2010 at 12:33 pm
madfarmer is right! Begich lied to us to get elected. There is an incredible amount of anger against him. He will be a one senator, maybe less as I believe there is an investigation that is picking up steam.
January 31st, 2010 at 4:32 pm
Why would Palin run for the Senate? She has enough oxygen to run for President, and I can’t imagine her enjoying the intracacies of the Senate process.
The key question should be whether Parnell wants the Senate seat. If he wins outright in 2010, then he could run in 2014 having had 6 years as Governor. That should be a cakewalk, if he wants it.
January 31st, 2010 at 6:03 pm
Wow, Palin’s numbers in AK are almost as bad as Romney’s in MA!
January 31st, 2010 at 6:10 pm
Palin won’t be senator she doesn’t want live in DC
January 31st, 2010 at 6:55 pm
Newt Gingrich’s 527 hauls in $6.4 million
Newt Gingrich’s political group raised nearly $6.4 million in the second half of 2009, easily outpacing the fundraising efforts of potential rivals for the 2012 Republican presidential nomination Sarah Palin, Mitt Romney and Tim Pawlenty.
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0110/32260.html#ixzz0eEmCAtjk
January 31st, 2010 at 6:58 pm
Palin to appear on Fox News Sunday; first Sunday show sit-down
http://www.politico.com/blogs/michaelcalderone/0110/Palin_to_appear_on_Fox_News_Sunday_first_Sunday_show_sitdown.html
January 31st, 2010 at 9:38 pm
Huckabee Legitimizes Tea Party Movement, Sounds Like A Candidate
by Joe Coscarelli
Former presidential candidate Mike Huckabee joined Greta Van Susteren on Fox News yesterday to discuss what will become of the Tea Party Movement, lending legitimacy to a group that has been met with derision and mockery.
The conversation allowed Huckabee to adopt populist language in support of an organization that, according to him, has been sick of conservatives, too. “I’m hoping the Tea Party people will be absorbed into a solid and principled Republican party, instead of the Republican party that many of them have been fed up with,” said Huckabee, sounding like he was certainly running for office.
“If the Democrats are smart, they would hope that the tea party movement would turn into a bonafide political organization to the point of nominating candidates,” said Huckabee, presenting a worst-case-scenario for the right. He cited spending and government intervention as reasons the Tea Partiers are angry, even at Republicans.
The talk seemed to forgo any debate about whether the Tea Partiers are already a faction of the Republican Party, painting them instead as a possible repeat of Ross Perot’s grassroots support in the 1992 presidential election. This comparison has surely been made, and yet, with the Tea Party media narrative more concretely defined as a viable alternative, Huckabee seems to be positioning himself to grab those votes as if he were already a full blown candidate.
http://www.mediaite.com/tv/huckabee-leg … candidate/
February 1st, 2010 at 12:57 am
Palin’s shadow hangs over Alaska ethics debate
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/01/31/AR2010013101090_pf.html
Tea Party convention raises questions about movement’s future
http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/2010-01-31-tea-part-future_N.htm
Tea Party Nation head lashes out
http://dyn.politico.com/printstory.cfm?uuid=8156A97A-18FE-70B2-A87320AC6728AB25
Tea Party moves from margins to mainstream in US politics
With banners, flags and T-shirts denouncing Barack Obama’s fiscal stimulus and health reforms, Tea Party movement protestors are turning out against him everywhere he goes.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/northamerica/usa/barackobama/7111332/Tea-Party-moves-from-margins-to-mainstream-in-US-politics.html