-R4’12 is pleased to publish an Op-ed from one of our second page contributors, Jon Keeling, AKA “DJ Tablesauce”-KL

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Six months ago, there was a buzz around Ohio about the massive fundraising edge Gov. Ted Strickland had over John Kasich.

The Columbus Dispatch characterized Strickland’s 8-1 cash-on-hand advantage this way:

At this rate, you are bound to see Gov. Ted Strickland in 30-second TV spots next year far more than you’ll see his Republican rival, John Kasich.

But after Kasich reported raising 63% more than Strickland over the last six months of 2009, $4.55M to $2.8M, the newspapers have changed their tune.

The success by Kasich in the all-important money chase portends a competitive race through Election Day. Both candidates apparently will have the resources to saturate the airwaves and field huge grassroots operations.

Back in July, with Kasich only able to report a little over one month of fundraising totals, I reported on my blog, Third Base Politics, that the easiest way to gauge fundraising success in incumbent vs. challenger races as they begin is to determine how much each candidate pulled in per month.

At the last reporting period, Strickland was raising $416,000 per month.

And now? Strickland is up to a mere $466,000 a month. An improvement of only 12%.

For comparison, Kasich raised $467,000 last June, his first full month in the race. In other words, Kasich was raising more per month in his first month in the race than Strickland has averaged the entire 2nd half of 2009.

And now, Kasich is up to a whopping $758,333 a month – an improvement of 63%.

Now, if there is any “bad news” for Kasich supporters in this race, it’s that Strickland still has a $2.1 million cash-on-hand advantage.

However, if Kasich continues to outraise Strickland at a rate of nearly 3:2, at the end of the day Strickland may very well be the low man on the fundraising totem poll.

That’s almost too amazing to even consider possible. An incumbent Governor has every advantage in the world. A challenger coming in and absolutely obliterating an incumbent over the course six months nearly a year out from the election simply should not happen.

And yet, it did.

A few more random thoughts:

• Strickland’s campaign announced their numbers on Friday afternoon. And as we all know, if you want your coverage minimalized, you release it on a Friday afternoon. Interestingly enough, this is the second major campaign announcement in a row that was hidden in the news cycle; the first being the Governor’s campaign kickoff/Lieutenant Governor announcement occurring the same day as the Massachusetts Miracle that brought Scott Brown into the Senate. It says a lot that the first two major news stories of the Strickland campaign need to be strategically hidden from major media coverage.

• It’s common knowledge that the Ohio Democratic Party has essentially been carrying a large chunk of Strickland’s campaign expenses, thereby enabling his campaign to inflate their cash-on-hand number. Meanwhile, the Kasich campaign has been using their own funds to pay for campaign operations. How much longer can the ODP float their incumbent Governor?

• There isn’t a more significant datapoint that signifies how a race is trending than fundraising. If contributors are giving, they think you’re going to win. If they aren’t giving as much, things aren’t looking that good. The budget fiasco and polling numbers have severely damaged the Governor’s ability to fundraise. Meanwhile, Kasich has received glowing coverage and has become a symbol of the 2010 Republican Revolution.

With polls showing Kasich with a solid 8 point lead over Strickland and fundraising clearly favoring the GOP candidate, it’s clear that momentum has quickly swung to favor John Kasich.

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-Jon Keeling is the Editor of Third Base Politics, which was named one of Ohio’s best political blogs by the Washington Post, and can be followed on Twitter and Facebook.