PPP (D) Illinois Political Survey
GOP Gubernatorial Primary
- Kirk Dillard 19%
- Andy McKenna 17%
- Bill Brady 16%
- Jim Ryan 13%
- Adam Andrzejewski 11%
- Dan Proft 7%
- Undecided 17%
GOP Senatorial Primary
- Mark Kirk 42%
- Patrick Hughes 9%
- Don Lowery 4%
- Andy Martin 3%
- Kathleen Thomas 2%
- John Arrington 2%
- Undecided 39%
Survey of 573 likely Republican primary voters was conducted January 22-25, 2010. The margin of error is +/- 4.1 percentage points.
January 26th, 2010 at 11:49 am
Is Kirk Dillard leading because a few voters are confusing him with Mark Kirk?
January 26th, 2010 at 11:56 am
Former Governor Edgar has endorsed Dillard, and lots of Republicans liked Edgar pretty well. At least he didn’t go to prision.
January 26th, 2010 at 12:00 pm
Metro,
Probably. The endless succession of sundry “Ryans” also confuses the crap out of people.
But Dillard has run a (relatively) high profile campaign. He is running as the long lost son of Jim Edgar. I think he even sued for a paternity test……
January 26th, 2010 at 12:02 pm
BTW, the fact that 17% are undecided in the governor’s race, and 39% undecided in the Senate race should be evidence enough that this primary is too damn early. Can you imagine the down ballot races? People will be picking the same way I used to on my multiple choice math tests; “I haven’t marked ‘C’ for a while…..”
The Machine wants it this way, though, so they are more in control of who gets nominated in both parties.
January 26th, 2010 at 12:04 pm
Although Mark Kirk is supposed to be anathema to conservatives, the Tribune poll from yesterday indicates otherwise. He beat Hughes 47-8 overall; among people who self-identify with the tea party movement, he won 48-10. No difference.
http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/elections/ct-met-senate-poll-20100124,0,6657184.story
January 26th, 2010 at 12:05 pm
MWS — totally agree re the primary date. It’s absurd to have it this early.
January 26th, 2010 at 12:05 pm
Bob,
Well, he’s anathema to me, and short of the Democrats nominating Satan himself, I’ll probably cast a protest vote on that line this Fall.
January 26th, 2010 at 12:10 pm
With 17% undecided, this really is just about anyone’s game. And I agree – a primary in February (that’s not for POTUS) is rather absurd.
January 26th, 2010 at 12:12 pm
Bob,
It used to be in March, as you recall, but they bumped it up to get in on Super Tuesday to help Barry in ’08. I think in off year elections (when all the statewide races are up) they should hold a July or August primary.
January 26th, 2010 at 12:16 pm
ScozzaDillard is in front becasue he’s run a decent campaign and racked up endorsements.But it looks like he’s stalling at this level of support. McKenna also seems incapable of breaking thorugh and Ryan is tanking. Only upward movment is with Brady and Andrzejewski and I have lots of reasons to beleive Andrzejewski is moving quicker. He’s gone totally viral in the blogosphere in the last 24 hours with the Walesa endorsement and the iPhone “there’s a the for that” ad. Moneybomb planned for tomorrow, Tea Partiees mobilizing for him, national support coming in – and I’ve heard rumblings that a lot more is coming in the next week.
Mark my words – Andrzejewski is not only competitive, he can win. In fact – based on some of the things I’ve seen recently, I think he may be the bast bet to win – as no one is watching him in the rearview mirrror and he’s closing FAST.
January 26th, 2010 at 12:18 pm
8 – there’s more than 17 percent undecided in my mind. The numbers are fluctuating wildly from polls to poll – the bottom is falling out of the Ryan campaign, and everybody else’s support is extremely soft. This is probably the most volatile race I’ve seen this late in the game.
January 26th, 2010 at 12:29 pm
Adam — I think you may be right that much of Ryan’s support should perhaps be counted as ‘undecided’ — he was the default candidate, but once he loses that status, there’s no reason to vote for him.
January 26th, 2010 at 12:31 pm
I agree our primary is too early and that it was changed to help Obama. But, this ppp poll looks like Andrzejewski could possibly be getting a little more steam in the few days since the tribune poll results that were posted here a few days ago. I just sent text messages to several of my friends and family about Andrzejewski receiving an A+ grade from the Rockford tea party and reminding them of the primary next week. We have a new pastor that moved here from WI that wasn’t even aware that we have to pre-register in IL. 2 conservative votes lost
January 26th, 2010 at 12:32 pm
Wow. I honestly wasn’t expecting Dillard to pull this off, but I definitely believe he can win. he is the only Republican gubernatorial candidate who can win the general election against Hynes or Quinn.
January 26th, 2010 at 12:39 pm
http://illinoisreview.typepad.com/illinoisreview/
IMO that sounds more like a Democrat move than a a Republican. Why would a Republican want to shut up rural Illinois?
January 26th, 2010 at 12:45 pm
Adam,
The numbers are fluctuating so wildly because some of the polls are commissioned by campaigns (and likely biased) but also because at least half the people who will vote next Tues. aren’t even paying attention.
Non-Presidential Feb. primaries are just totally stupid. I bet that at least half the primary voters (and these are your hard core folks) will be voting totally blind for the down ballot races.
January 26th, 2010 at 12:46 pm
Dillard endorsed by the NEA? Check him off my list.
I’m guessing he’s made a deal with them to waste a ton more money on “education.”
January 26th, 2010 at 4:08 pm
I don’t know what the big deal is this former Polish president. It’s not that big of an endorsement…who cares? An endorsement from someone like Peter Fitzgerald or Jim Edgar would be much more important and note-worthy. Who cares about this endorsement for Andrzejewski? Do Illinoisans really think it matters that a Polish president endorsed a candidate versus a former popular governor endorsing a candidate?
January 26th, 2010 at 6:15 pm
Lech Walesa is rather more than a “former Polish president” — do you not know who he is?
He is one of the transformative figures of the late 20th century. He won (and deserved) a Nobel Peace Prize for helping to bring down the Soviet empire.
January 26th, 2010 at 8:53 pm
Jimmie,
Your youth is showing…..
January 31st, 2010 at 7:33 pm
[...] one, the last two polls showed Andrejewski at 11% – which is itself a significant up-tick from polls the preceding weeks showing him in single [...]