Think the January 19th special election for Teddy Kennedy’s seat is a lost cause? Well, think again. GOP nominee Scott Brown is mounting a strong late charge, and putting himself in position to bump off Democrat Martha Coakley with a surprise attack at the last minute.
Now, don’t get me wrong, Massachusetts is the bluest of blue states, and Coakley should be a shoo-in. However, special elections can be tricky due to low turnout, and weird things can happen if the opposition party floods the polls (and the incumbents get complacent). This is how we got Joseph Cao elected last year in deep-blue New Orleans, and Scott Brown has put together a brilliant strategy aimed at producing a similar phenomenon in Massachusetts.
Leveraging social media, Brown is not only securing donations from the GOP’s national grassroots, but using them for phone banking. I have to monitor Twitter at work, and I can tell you that the Brown campaign’s “phone bank from home” initiative has gone totally viral. It is EVERYWHERE on Twitter, and if one assumes that everyone who retweets Brown makes only one call per tweet – then Brown is currently averaging somewhere around two calls PER MINUTE. Furthermore – he’s actually benefitting from the race’s low profile and the perception that he’s being ignored. For instance, HotAir’s Ed Morissey gave Brown a shot in the arm today with a post asking if he had been abandoned by the RNC. This is 100% red meat for insurgent conservatives who feel that the party is picking the wrong battles. Granted, Brown tweeted today to assure supporters that the RNC and NRSC have given him everything he has asked for so far – but the perception (fed by the lack of fervor over this race compared to NY-20 and NY-23) has already created a mass outpourng of support.
The internet could also translate into some serious campaign cash if Brown can keep up the excitement – as he is planning a Ron Paul-style moneybomb for January 11th.
While it would be hard for him to stay out considering this is a Massachusetts race, Mitt Romney appears ready to go all-in here as well. He issued fundraising letter today, declaring that “Scott’s election would shock the country”. Granted, I would probably advise Mitt to get out on the trail with Brown and make himself visible – as he will probably want to stay ahead of the tsunami that will hit if Gov. Palin issues an endorsement (which seems likely to me).
Now – for those of you who still think this effort is too futile to support, consider this: As I mentioned earlier, we won a similar campaign last year with Joseph Cao in Louisiana’s Second Congressional District. The runoff election was on a strange date, the Democratic electorate got lazy, and the GOP flooded the polls. Yes, that race also included an indicted incumbent in William Jefferson, and the electorate was ten times smaller by population. However, LA-2 has a Cook Partisan Voting Index score of D +25. The statewide Cook PVI for Massachusetts, by comparison, is only D +12. That’s still a pretty intimidating score, but in perspective that should show you just how achievable this is…especially considering the possibility of freezing weather on election day.
If I were in the RNC’s shoes right now, I would shift this race immediately to top priority. I would also hope that Scott Brown is being lined up as a guest by Sean Hannity and the rest of the talk radio crew (Limbaugh doesn’t do guests but hopefully he will at least give Brown a plug). No, it’s not going to be easy – and yes, Martha Coakley is rolling in cash. However, the Democrats aren’t watching their backs in this race, the “win one for Teddy” fervor was wasted on the effort to install interim Senator Paul Kirk, and Scott Brown clearly has momentum. Furthermore, even if we don’t win, a stronger-than-expected second place would seriously spook the Democrats in this particular election.
The only thing standing between us and this Senate seat right now is our own self-doubt – but if we can “have a Cao” in New Orleans, then we have every reason to expect a “Brownout” in Massachusetts. This thing is ours for the taking – so let’s get to work.
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QAmguPWesq0[/youtube]
And while I’m sure the Brown campaign would prefer this not be made an issue, reality TV fans should remember his daughter Ayla as a semi-finalist on American Idol season 5. Normally, I wouldn’t bring this up – but I figured I’d drop it in here simply because I actually do remember Ayla. I was voting for her that season and was really ticked when she didn’t make the top 12. So, that was my ”six degrees of Kevin Bacon” moment for the day (Oh, and I found out that Ayla does have some new tunes out for those of us who were fans.)
December 29th, 2009 at 8:38 pm
Brown won’t win because he won’t make his opponent’s incompetence and ambition an issue. Ann Coulter wrote a fantastic piece on Martha Coakley recently, and Brown won’t make this an issue. He deserves to lose if he doesn’t: http://www.humanevents.com/article.php?id=34772
December 29th, 2009 at 8:51 pm
It’s a very good point but it makes Brown look bad if he dirties himslef with it too much (granted, Coakley hasn’t exactly shown him any respect with her negative campaign against him.)
Under most circumstances, I would say that might be a good subject for a 3rd party 527 advertising campaign (where are our friends at the Club for Growth when you need them?)
December 29th, 2009 at 9:16 pm
#1 Coulter’s criticisms are just as applicable to the Governor at the time.
December 29th, 2009 at 9:25 pm
3 – Indeed.
December 29th, 2009 at 9:54 pm
Ruh roh…..
Anyway, this is not a race I feel we should nationalize. It makes sense to make the Arkansas Senate race and the Michigan gubernatorial race about Obama.
However, in a state where Obamacare probably polls over 50% even in a Rasmussen poll? Doesn’t sound like a good idea to me.
December 29th, 2009 at 10:04 pm
#5:
We don’t need to necessarily nationalize this election, the ingredients for at least giving the Democrats a real scare are all in place. Even if Scott Brown doesn’t win, if he gets it close (say less than double-digits) in Massachusetts, it will terrify the Democrats, especially the Blue Dogs. Winning this election would be the biggest upset since Hillary Clinton won in NH.
December 29th, 2009 at 10:32 pm
If Brown wins….does that mean we have a chance of filing actually filibustering the insurance health care bill? When can the special elected senator be sworn in and start serving…is on the 19th or later?
December 29th, 2009 at 10:34 pm
5 – Not a race to nationalize in the sense of making it a refuerendum on Obama (although Brown is now marketing himslef heavily as the 41st vote against ObamaCare). But I do think it’s a race to nationalize in the sense the we get a huge grassroots funding dump into the Brown campaign at the last minute to fund a GOTV push.
December 29th, 2009 at 10:38 pm
Rob –
Brown would in theory enable a filibuster assuming we hold onto Olympia Snowe’s vote. I think the new senator will probably be sworn in wthin days (if not within 24 hours) of the election.
Another reason to support Brown would be just to see the look on John Kerry’s face when he has to perform his duty of escorting his state’s new Senator into the chamber and making remarks introducing him…and then watching the look on Joe Biden’s face as he swears in the guy who’s going to kill the Obama healthcare package.
December 29th, 2009 at 10:43 pm
It would be priceless …kinda of like this MasterCard Commercial.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WFNXwor69-U
I wouldn’t be surprise if the Democrats try really hard to get the bill passed by the 19th or earlier.
December 29th, 2009 at 10:49 pm
Do you think an endorsement from Palin or Rommeny would have different effects on the vote or not so much?
December 29th, 2009 at 10:54 pm
You know I think I am glad that Howard Dean is the charimen of the DNC and doesn’t like the health care bill. Maybe, he won’t pour any money into this election in hopes of making the bill fail.
December 29th, 2009 at 10:56 pm
11 – Romney gets street cred in MA. Palin generates lots of national funding and volunteers for the at-home phone banks.
Dean is on his own now. Tim Kaine succeeded him as DNC Chair when Obama came in.
December 30th, 2009 at 1:16 am
Senate is adjourned til Jan. 19th. It would take at least a few days to bring cloture on Obamacare to a vote. Brown would be sworn in by then.
December 30th, 2009 at 1:50 am
Where do you get the idea that Palin generates lots of national funding? Her PAC runs about 1/3 of Romney’s. That’s the only national funding I know of right now.
December 30th, 2009 at 2:12 am
The 19th can’t come fast enough…perhaps the start of Republican takeover in 2010…one may hope.
December 30th, 2009 at 6:36 am
Well at least Mrs. Palin’s PAC is doing much better than the PAC of you guy. Oh that’s right, you are not even a Huckabeeite, you just call yourself HuckabeeAllTheWay.
December 30th, 2009 at 7:49 am
15 – I wasn’t referring to PAC money – PAC money is only a small part of the Palin machine anyway and is legally limited in terms of how much one PAC can give (If SarahPAC and Free&StrongAmerica PAC both max out – what does it matter that one PAC is tecnically bigger than the other as a whole?). It’s the legions of Facebook fans who will mmake small donations to whoever Sarah tells them to. It was a big jolt for Hoffman and it will be for Brown as well if it happens. Palin’s social media pull is also doubly importnnant as it will feed lots of volunteers into Browns phone-bank-from-hime initiative.
December 30th, 2009 at 9:19 am
Mitt Romney Central is rallying the troops for Scott Brown as well: http://mittromneycentral.com/2009/12/30/scott-brown-could-be-our-41st-vote-in-the-senate/
December 30th, 2009 at 11:02 am
Obviously I’m a hard-core Palinistat when it comes to 2012 – but I’ll definitely give Mitt credit fore getting out in front of Scott Brown. He’s obviously the best positioned to lead the charge, as this particular race is on his home turf, and I hope he takes it a step farther by doing some media and campaign appearances.
December 30th, 2009 at 11:02 am
Palinistat – should have read “Palinista”
December 30th, 2009 at 3:24 pm
I was at a Scott Brown Event last night in Ashland, Mass. Ashland is the home town of our district’s State Senator, State Rep and Martha Coakley’s Sister. Talk about going into the Belly of the Beast. There were twice as many supporters there than anticipated. In fact, some supporters came in from another event in the next town (Framingham). He’s gaining a lot of traction here and his underground support is unbelievable. He can pull this off. The Republicans in Massachusetts understand what this race means to the rest of the country and we are doing everything we can to pull this off.
December 30th, 2009 at 6:28 pm
Thanks for the on-the-ground report John! Keep us posted. Can you give us a snapshot of how many yard signs and bumper stickers you are seeing for each candidate?
December 30th, 2009 at 8:39 pm
Conservative Americans need to get behind Brown. The GOP and NRSC are nowhere to be seen. They have forgotten that their job #1 is to get Republicans elected and not to worry about policy. Is that so freaking difficult to remember? Randy Bumps at the NRSC is a stiff as is Sen. John Cornyn. They need to get fired up, creative and put a little juice behind this race NOW. Losing is not a choice.
December 31st, 2009 at 12:16 am
I haven’t seen any signs for either candidate. Well, except for the ones in front of my house. And you can guess who that is for.
As a side note, I’m 44 and I’ve never registered to vote before. I registered monday and picked up signs and bumperstickers on tuesday. So there is a lot of anger here. I’m not sure how many of the democrats are going to switch to brown, but I think there will be a small percentage. I know of 2. Also, 50% of MA are unenroled (independents) if the national trend holds brown should get about 2/3s of those.
So, all that is needed now is a good snow storm to keep democrats away from the poll and for everyone else to show up and vote.
For anyone out of state you can help by signing up to make calls (not sure how it works but I guess you log into their system and make the calls from your home). You could also donate money. So even if you can’t vote in MA you can still help Scott Brown win in this very tough race.
January 1st, 2010 at 9:07 pm
we should make a sincere push for this seat, just think; win teddy’s seat, win obama’s seat, win biden’s seat, win clinton’s seat, win reid’s seat, it would be a total repudiation of epic proportions.
January 4th, 2010 at 3:27 am
We are discussing the Scott Brown campaign and pushing for donations (and volunteers) at the “Conservative Talk Forum” website. The address for the discussion thread is:
http://nanosecondinv.proboards.com/index.cgi?action=display&board=genpoltical&thread=9786&page=1
Please feel free to stop in and solicit our forum members for help.
trap
February 3rd, 2010 at 1:38 am
[...] takes a candidate that is far superior to his opponent and a little bit of good fortune. As seen at Scott Brown Goes Viral, we may have a perfect storm on our hands to win this election and really send a message to [...]