Kavon will soon be posting this year’s New Year’s Predictions. However, I would propose that we carefully consider the previous year’s predictions and award points accordingly. Thus, I announce the Pat Robertson Award.
Pat Robertson is famous for prescient New Year’s predictions. Okay, so he’s right about half the time, but we need somebody to name the award after.
The Pat Robertson Award goes to that prognosticator that made the highest percent of correct predictions in the last year.
First, some definitions:
Right: A prediction was made that has completely come to pass.
Partially Right (0.5): Part of Prediction worked out, part didn’t.
Right, So Far: (.75): A prediction was made that requires future knowledge and so far its worked out but the rest requires fulfillment at some future date.
Wrong(0): No soup for you.
Let’s take a look based on my count of last year’s predictions what percentage of predictions were correct, though I’m sure someone will correct me:
Alex Knepper:
4 Right, 4 partial, 3 wrong, 1 Right So Far. 54.16% right.
Adam Graham:
11 Right, 8 wrong, 1 partial, 57.5% right
Mike “Gamecock” Gamecock Devine:
11 Wrong, 3 Right, 2 Partial, 25% right
Michael Steubel:
5 Right, 6 wrong, 1 partial, 45.83%
Matt Coulter:
4 Right, 3 wrong, 1 Right So Far, 1 Partial, 45.83%
Kristopher Lorelli:
0 Right, 3 wrong, 0% right, 0%
Aron Goldman:
3 partials, 7 wrong, 15% right
(to be fair, he wasn’t trying)
Kavon:
1 Right, 11 Wrong, 4 partials: 18.75% right
It looks like I came out on top in making predictions. My percentage would be even better if I didn’t make Sports Predictions. (I was 0-for-3 in Sports predictions.)
My best Prediction:
The Obama White House will blunder with Health Care reform, trying to move too quickly and too fast to get something through, but will instead force the bill into the congressional meat grinder. By the end of the year, health care reform will still be in Congress and will be three times the length of whatever legislation Obama originally submitted.
I had to actually give myself a partial on this because what I couldn’t imagine last year is that Obama wouldn’t submit a bill but let Congress write the whole thing.
My worst prediction:
Every prediction in this paragraph is absolutely wrong and its embarassing, or it would be even if this weren’t just for fun. I’ll let other writers share what they thought were their best and worst predictions if they so choose.
Anyway, I’m off to order a Bronze Statue of Pat Robertson in my honor. It’ll make an interesting conversation piece. Then again, I just might not have anyone over to the house this year.
December 29th, 2009 at 9:56 pm
Gosh, I was just about to make a thread like this! I’m going to make more serious predictions for this year.
December 29th, 2009 at 10:05 pm
Alex,
I think this was your best prediction:
…except Obama’s response centers more around health care reform than government works. True, he’s hired tons of bureaucrats and the bureaucrats are getting fat raises while Rome burns, but so far the Stimulus has been mostly a bailout for state governments and payoffs to political allies. But I guess that qualifies as “government works” in the official dictionary of the Chicago Machine.
Here is your worst prediction:
and here is my favorite prediction:
December 29th, 2009 at 10:15 pm
Here’s a good one from Kavon:
December 29th, 2009 at 10:28 pm
You guys did good – but I’m going to win the “Robbie” award net year! Mwahahahaha!
Though, in all honesty – no kidding – I checked the news out of Israel and one of my slightly more far-out predictions looks like it’s going to happen sooner than I thought.
December 29th, 2009 at 10:39 pm
Adam B,
Where were your predictions?
December 29th, 2009 at 10:42 pm
I wasn’t here last year – I sent my predictions to the editor earlier today for the obligatory end-of-year thread that will be posted on New Years Eve. So – they haven’t been published yet.
December 29th, 2009 at 10:43 pm
2 – Even I could not anticipate the incredible breadth of Obambi’s incompetence.
December 29th, 2009 at 10:47 pm
Just submitted the 2010 predictions to the boss.
December 29th, 2009 at 10:51 pm
6
Ohhhh… you were referring to this year’s predictions, not last year’s. Gotcha. Let me guess – did your prediction have anything to do with Gilad Shalit?
December 29th, 2009 at 11:34 pm
No – Shaul Mofaz
December 30th, 2009 at 8:50 am
I’m actually quite pleased with my prognostications from last year. I only really made one real blunder- I predicted a Ken Blackwell victory for RNC chair but I am very pleased with the actual result of Chairman Steele as our leader. All in all I give myself 5.5 out of 7 – I suggested that Fred Thompson would produce a popular and influential documentary film but I had the medium wrong – Fred has gone on to produce a popular and influential radio program instead.
My most prescient prediction from last year: “I predict that Mike Huckabee will have some minor scandal that will leave some of his Evangelical supporters upset or disenchanted.”
Currently putting together my list for this year – it has some surprises.
December 30th, 2009 at 5:09 pm
Your prediction on Mike Huckabee losing support due to “some minor scandal” doesn’t appear to be happening. The polls are showing that despite the latest “scandal” Huckabee is still leading the pack for 2012 polls and his TV program is more popular than ever.
December 30th, 2009 at 8:42 pm
Congrats, Adam Graham!
December 31st, 2009 at 4:19 am
So it’s true Gamecock has left us for good??
My one great hope for 2009 has transpired!!!!!