If you’re not an Africa-watcher, you might not have seen the news that Guinean military dictator Moussa “Dadis” Camara was wounded yesterday when rogue elements of his presidential guard opened fire on him. Now – if you bear with me – I will get around to why Guinea is particularly relevant to the world scene right now. But first I want to give you a primer on the situation and why I think the military government is lying through it’s teeth when they say that “Dadis” is doing just fine.

Camara seized power in a July 2008 coup, following the death of long-time dictator Lansana Conté. His regime again made international news in September, when his thugs massacred pro-democracy protesters gathered in a soccer stadium. The death toll is unclear, but human rights groups heve estimated it at 157. Apparently, the handling of the fallout of that atrocity caused a rift between Dadis and the head of his presidential guard – who decided yesterday that the best way to handle wht situation was to whack his boss. This is where it gets interesting.

According to the military junta, Camara sustained only minor wounds and is doing well. That was their position yesterday, and they held to that position today despite announcing that Camara had been flown to Morocco for medical treatment (and refusing to discuss the nature of the wounds). Meanwhile, leaks out of the military are indicating that Camara was hit in the head and is in serious condition. In all honesty, I’m not sure I buy either side’s story but I’m more inclined to go with the head wound than the minor flesh wound. Here’s why:

First, Camara is notoriously (and rightly) paranoid about leaving the country – fearful of a counter-coup while he is away. He has even planned trips on several occasions, only to leave the jets idling on the runway at the last minute. So, we are now expected to believe that this same man left the country for a minor wound treatment – at a time when there really is a counter-coup attempt in the works? He wouldn’t have gone if he didn’t have a severe enough wound that it could not be treated in Guinea – and as poor as the country is, I’m sure his presidential team would be able to treat a minor bullet wound. Second, I don’t watch Guinea terribly often, but in my experience, Camara is a pretty outspoken guy and is not camera-shy. If he was as up-and-about as his minions claim – the why didn’t he go on TV and tell the nation everything was fine?

I think we can establish that something smells like fish – the only question is how bad the situation really is.

So, why am I bringing this up here  - other than my fetish for international news? Well, that particular region of West Africa if becoming one of the most important hubs in the international cocaine trade. Latin American drug cartels are asserting more and more influence, as they use these largely lawless nations as a stopover between production operations in South America and the fast-growing European cocaine market (which is more lucrative than the U.S.). They have alreadytrasformed Guinea’s smaller and poorer neighbor, Guinea-Bissau, into ”Africa’s first narco-state” and who knows what they could do if a larger nation like Guinea descends into chaos. It is the drug cartels, not local thugs, who would benefit most from instability. So, this event may be more internationally important than most African coup-attempts.

I’m not saying that I want Camara to stay in power, he is a thug and a pathetic excuse for a human being. I will say, however, that the international community needs to take notice of of the new African narco-states as a potential security risk – especially considering that jihadi terrorist groups are also pushing closer to that part of Africa. Guinea-Bissau has largely already fallen, and it would be a big mistake to sit idly by if Guinea-proper starts spiraling downward as well.    

Oh – and if you’re wondering whether I will ever get back to domestic issues – the answer is yes. In fact, I will be updating you tomorrow after I attend the Sarah Palin book signing in Fairfax, VA.