Alex has a good post on the Rubio/Crist race. I think that number 2 is an illusion, but number 1 is a reasonable answer. Still, I’d take even money that, by next August, Rubio is polling within 2-3 points of Crist in general election match-ups. Crist does not have a “reasonably strong approval rating”. His approval rating is, at best, unclear. The latest poll, the St. Petersburg Times poll, pegs Crist at a 42% approval rating. It’s hard to know exactly how accurate this pollster is, but they were in line with everyone else in their Florida primary polling (both D and R) so I have to assume they’re not wildly off. Crist’s popularity isn’t cratering, by the way, because he’s a terrible Governor; he’s too savvy a politician to see his popularity drop just because he’s doing a terrible job.
No, Charlie Crist is suffering from A.) The anti-incumbent mood and B.) The “this fella ought to be doing his job instead of campaigning” mood. By next August these will have reached a crescendo and it’s increasingly hard to imagine Crist maintaining much above modestly high (+5 to +8) approval ratings through the election. Rubio, on the other hand, doesn’t have to govern in this environment, he isn’t accountable for any of the tough choices, and he gets to define himself in opposition to someone who does and is. If Crist wins the seat by 20 points, it’s because generic Republican is winning it by 15.
So that leaves us with number 1. Is it worth electing Crist because he’s a moderate face in an increasingly ideological GOP? Well, that depends on what that moderate face will look like by next November. Will it be the one with the sunny smile and the unflappable tongue? Or will it look a little haggard; a little less sure of its power? And, of course, this leaves out the fact that the GOP needs more than moderate members if it wants to experience a revival; it needs diverse members. What good is a big tent if everyone looks the same?
Perhaps I’m biased, but I’m more inclined to think I simply have an inside view. And I’ll tell you, it is increasingly hard for minorities to line up behind the Republican colors. My party affiliation is not something I advertise to most people in my acquaintance. I am, to use a metaphor, an in the closet Republican. Are there in the closet moderates? I think not so many. We cannot, simply cannot, continue as a party of old, white men. It is untenable. It will fail and before the next decade is out.
These facts may discomfit Republicans, but a party that has such a failed history of reaching out to minority voters needs to be discomfited. It needs to be woken up with pots and pans, in the middle of its dreamy sleep. If Rubio- a son of Cuban refugees- can just set an alarm we’ll have gotten somewhere. This consideration would be enough, alone, to cancel out the “we need to promote Crist for ideological diversity” argument. And, all else being equal, it’d be enough to push Rubio over the top.
But, all else isn’t equal. Rubio is simply the better candidate. He’s more conservative, though not perfectly conservative and thank God; his politics is more principled, though not rigid, a governer not a shouter; and he is, by some kind of wonder, more charismatic, more polished. If these strengths don’t eliminate Crist from consideration they at least eliminate our need to worry about his fate. When Crist loses, Florida will have lost nothing of consequence and both Florida and the nation will have gained a new public servant from a new generation of Americans- tested by the fire of this century’s conflicts, having escaped from the rubble of the last’s major ideology, and ready to help lead our country in a time of great travail.
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Matthew E. Miller can be contacted at Obilisk18@yahoo.com and at his Pawlentyesque blog
November 10th, 2009 at 8:54 am
I would rather have Rubio but Crist is still popular in Florida and will not lose to Rubio. Heck the older Republicans who carry the day here dont even know who Rubio is. Because of Crist’s actions on the insurance industry here and keeping taxes down he is a shoe in imo. True conservatives may win elsewhere but not this Senate seat. Crist beats him by 7% minimum imo in the primary and thats after Rubio gets his message out there.
November 10th, 2009 at 9:08 am
Matthew,
“And I’ll tell you, it is increasingly hard for minorities to line up behind the Republican colors.”
You mean, “color,” not “colors.”
Great post, Matthew.
November 10th, 2009 at 9:16 am
This is a real dilemma that inhibits GOP outreach to minorities. I’ve heard others remark on the uniformity of skin color on display at major Republican events such as party conventions an candidate rallies.
I have no idea how to overcome this, in part because of the instant judgment many make against anything a speaker says who is a member of the white majority. Some people look at the complexion of the speaker and are unwilling to listen. (And I use the vague term “some people” not in order to be PC and avoid racial/ethnic categories, but because I also hear whites who turn a deaf ear to conservative ideas on the basis of the presenters’ skin color.)
But what do you do? If you’re blessed/cursed with the white, ethnically Anglo appearance and hold conservative beliefs, you can’t change your appearance in order to get someone to listen to your ideas who is viscerally unwilling.
And I figure the problem is even harder to overcome if you’re black and hold conservative, decidedly Republican views. Then it seems you get vehemently dismissed as a traitor to your race, as shown in the debate-killing remarks about “house negro” or “Uncle Tom” frequently hurled at prominent black conservatives like Clarence Thomas, Thomas Sowell, etc. One extreme instance recently was the leftist black radio talker excoriating the liberal black journalist Juan Williams as a racial traitor because Williams works for Fox News.
The only thing I can come up with here is the glib observation that if you’re in the white majority, you’re not expected by your racial peers to hold a set of political inclinations. If you’re a black American, you’re expected by your peers to maintain very specific political views — and to vote Democrat. If you’re black and don’t conform, you’re dismissed outright as a traitor and unworthy of being heard out.
November 10th, 2009 at 9:54 am
You will never get many more black Americans voting for Conservative Republicans. Most are taught from childhood that they are to vote Democrat and that Republicans are not their party. Its bad to say that but its true. And the few that do vote against the Democrats are branded uncle toms etc. in their community and by the mainstream media. I dont see how this will be changed anytime soon. The republicans could do an all out blitz trying to change perception and the numbers would hardly even move.
November 10th, 2009 at 10:04 am
Mike,
It’s not about blacks. Their share of the population is rather stable. It ould be nice if we could get a chunk of their support but it is not pivotal. On the other hand we need to get te majority of the support of hispanics. We need to get stronger among Chinese Americans, a group that is growing.
November 10th, 2009 at 10:47 am
And what about the Hungarians?
November 10th, 2009 at 10:56 am
“And what about the Hungarians?” Haha, I know it is a delicate subject, but from a tactical point of view, Hispanics and Asians are a lot more important to the GOP than African Americans, even the clowns who run the party in my state recognize this and we have a lot more African Americans in Ohio than we do other minorities. It may be a sad commentary, but it is the reality of the current political landscape.
November 10th, 2009 at 10:57 am
Off topic:
Hilarious!
Also, Reason Mag has been seeking interns — Matthew Miller and/or Alex Knepper should apply, I think. Check the Reason Hit-and-Run blog for details.
November 10th, 2009 at 11:05 am
MarkG, I loved that video. Especially as they were making fun of UPS crappy tv ads in the process.
November 10th, 2009 at 11:31 am
I have a sad but certain feeling that this race will have nothing to do with Florida or the issues we Floridians want our next Senator to address. In the end, this is just going to be a proxy battle between all sorts of different factions within the national GOP who feel the need to channel their energies into one race.
November 10th, 2009 at 11:49 am
Jonathan,
You’re probably right about that. Hopefully Rubio will resist the temptation to run as a national candidate.
What sorts of local issues are on Floridians’ minds, btw, besides sinking home values?
November 10th, 2009 at 12:00 pm
I hope Rubio runs as a Florida candidate instead of a national candidate. I also hope that Limbaugh and Beck stay the hell out. Let Rubio make his case to the FLORIDA electorate. If he is more conservative and better able to sell his vision then he will win. He’s got enough money now – he doesn’t need to match Crist dollar for dollar because the grass roots activists will pull him over the line.
I’ve got to say though, that the Club for Growth has gotten involved gives me a little bit of heartburn. Locals don’t like when national special interest groups weigh in. They sure didn’t like it in the district next door to where I live…NY-23.
If Rubio runs as a reasonable, problem-solving conservative but not Purist Conservative Republican – he will win and that can only be good for the GOP. If this becomes another Palin/Limbaugh/Beck moderate versus True Believer Clusterf*ck then that is going to be really bad for us.
Hopefully this time cooler heads prevail.
November 10th, 2009 at 12:12 pm
Adam,
You do recognize that those grassroots activists that you cite as the people who will put Rubio over the top do see this as a “battle for the soul of the party?” Why do you think Rubio is getting features from National Review, Weekly Standard, Erick Erickson, Jon Henke, and etc.?
Rubio himself compared what happened in NY-23 with his race. It helps him dramatically to nationalize the primary and then go back to national/local issues for the general.
November 10th, 2009 at 12:12 pm
What if Crist drops his beard and become full-fledged manlover? You’re pitting a gay against a Latino! I can’t choose mah mahnoritehs! I guess I have to go for the latter. They have more people and they reproduce.
November 10th, 2009 at 12:21 pm
Rubio wins. Florida wins. The GOP wins.
November 10th, 2009 at 12:27 pm
“I hope Rubio runs as a Florida candidate instead of a national candidate.” Marco Rubio is running for a federal office, not a local office. So they will be debating national issues.
November 10th, 2009 at 12:41 pm
Tommy,
That’s fine that they get their ideological disputes out of the way. But let the campaign be about Rubio’s time as Speaker of the House and let it be about how Crist performed as governor. The NY-23 race, by the end, had ZERO to do with NY-23 – and it was a turnoff. Let’s just hope that both Republicans don’t lose sight of the fact that local issues important to Florida residents are in the end what will matter to Floridians. It may well be that Meek is too weak to win and that in this particular case it won’t matter. But everyone on either side of the conservative/moderate divide will be watching this. It’s pretty clear that NY-23 was a lesson for future Republican contests on how NOT to handle ideological disputes. Let’s hope that FL is example of the right way to do it.
November 10th, 2009 at 12:43 pm
““I hope Rubio runs as a Florida candidate instead of a national candidate.” Marco Rubio is running for a federal office, not a local office. So they will be debating national issues.” BINGO!, yes, he needs to talk about local issues and about Florida. However, I just love how people are pretend as if he is running for school board or even for a spot on the county commission. Anybody who thinks that national issues play no role does not understand modern politics. Does anybody believe that the health care vote the other day was only about local issues?
November 10th, 2009 at 12:46 pm
Adam,
“It’s pretty clear that NY-23 was a lesson for future Republican contests on how NOT to handle ideological disputes. ”
I absolutely agree there, though we were each supporting different
candidateslessers of two evils.This race cannot devolve into another proxy war. This cannot be Rush/Sarah/Glen verses the specter of Specter.
This race needs to be about principles and ideas, yes, but regarding HOW THEY RELATE TO THE CONCERNS OF FLORIDIANS, not Thomas Paine, or John Locke, or Thomas Jefferson.
November 10th, 2009 at 12:47 pm
“The NY-23 race, by the end, had ZERO to do with NY-23″ That is what happens when a jar of worms is open and the worms crawl out. It is not so easy to put them back in the jar. Perhaps the big boys will know well enough to leave cans of worms alone because many of us are not going to help put the worms back in if this non-sense happens yet again.
November 10th, 2009 at 12:49 pm
“Thomas Paine, or John Locke, or Thomas Jefferson” That is fine to leave these gentlemen out because with respect, I do not recall any of them being political gangsters.
November 10th, 2009 at 12:50 pm
Ohio,
“I just love how people are pretend as if he is running for school board or even for a spot on the county commission.”
Not at all. Of course they will be discussing national issues, but (hopefully) not exclusively.
Look at it this way. If Rubio’s campaign is delivering a boiler plate message that could be delivered anywhere, he will lose. He can’t just sound like a talk show host. Most voters live in the real world of mortgages, jobs, schools, and neighborhoods, not in the philosophical realm about “originalism” or “liberty vs. tyranny.”
The winning formula (as McDonnell showed) is APPLYING conservative principles to mortgages, jobs, schools, and neighborhoods. That’s the point.
November 10th, 2009 at 12:52 pm
Ohio Joe,
Did some apparition come to you in your sleep a few weeks ago and tell you that should be combative and annoying from this day forward?
No one thinks the health care vote was about local issues. Are you suggesting someone said that was the case, or what? But if the your dream candidate in NY-23 cared a whit about LOCAL ISSUES then Owens wouldn’t be in the House voting with Pelosi.
There will be plenty of time to line up all of our members against the Democrats. What NY-23 taught us, in case you didn’t get it, is that the moderate and conservative factions need to come together in the end if we want to beat the Democrats.
November 10th, 2009 at 12:54 pm
MWS,
Yes and no. A Senate race is completely different from a governor’s race.
If it is a battle between Crist the governor and Marco Rubio the House Speaker, it isn’t completely clear who conservative Republicans should support as Kris has demonstrated to much criticism.
If it is a battle for “soul of the party” or whatever and is seen in the same lens as Miller has written here, then Rubio becomes the pretty clear choice for conservative Republicans.
For the purposes of the Republican primary, Rubio probably wants the race to be more “liberty v. tyranny” than on their past records because he’s not miles ahead of Crist in the latter aspect.
November 10th, 2009 at 1:10 pm
“No one thinks the health care vote was about local issues. Are you suggesting someone said that was the case, or what? But if the your dream candidate in NY-23 cared a whit about LOCAL ISSUES then Owens wouldn’t be in the House voting with Pelosi.” With respect, I am glad to hear that nobody thinks that health care is a local issue. The whole point is that Congressmen (and Congresswomen) make law for the whole country. It may not be right, but the reality of the situation is that special interest groups read Congressmen the RIOT Act on Saturday. One of these special interest group sent me (and I assume thousands of my fellow countrymen) an e-mail justifying the stands that they took and left a phone number to discuss the issue. While NY-23 is only one of 435 districts, the gloves came off in that district and from this day forward, the face of politics in the country is (at least) slightly changed and there is a new reality to deal with. If one thinks these types of races are too nationalized, they have not seen anything yet. The train has just moved on to the next station.
November 10th, 2009 at 1:12 pm
Well over at Red State they’re saying Crist put up a phony website and Hitler video accusing Rubio of being behind it, as if we needed any more corrupt duplicity in politics. No thanks to Crist if the allegations are true.
November 10th, 2009 at 1:35 pm
Rubio states that he and Palin agree on issues:
http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/67147-rubio-on-palin-i-cant-think-of-anything-her-and-i-disagree-with
November 10th, 2009 at 2:05 pm
Actually there *are* in the closet *moderate* Republicans. Probably more than you would imagine. Especially in my business (entertainment industry). Simply because we have to remain in the closet around both the liberal world and the far right world.
Agreed, the Republican Party needs to reach out to minorities and become more inclusive if it wants to survive. Or perhaps we should have a 3 party system, Democratic, Republican and Far Right Conservative.
And contrary to popular belief (read- Rush Limbaugh) *none* of my ‘moderate/conservative’ friends voted for Obama.
November 10th, 2009 at 3:09 pm
If Marc ties himself with Palin I will be firmly back in the Crist fold.
November 10th, 2009 at 4:15 pm
Heath,
If Palin endorses Romney in 2012, will you vote for Huckabee?
November 10th, 2009 at 6:27 pm
Generic Congressional Ballot
Republicans Jump to Six-Point Lead on Generic Ballot
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/mood_of_america/generic_congressional_ballot
November 10th, 2009 at 6:44 pm
“If Palin endorses Romney in 2012, will you vote for Huckabee?” I would not be totally shocked if some Romneyites did back Mr. Huckabee were Mrs. Palin to endorse Mr. Romney. Frankly, at this point I hope she backs neither one of them.
November 10th, 2009 at 6:51 pm
A Battle for Senate – And the GOP’s Soul
In Florida, Opponents Charlie Crist and Marco Rubio Offer Two Very Different Visions for the Future of the Republican Party
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2009/11/09/politics/main5591771.shtml
November 10th, 2009 at 6:54 pm
No longer conservative about his religion
It says much about the transformation of the Republican Party that even Newt Gingrich is now carrying the cross.
By Dana Milbank
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/11/09/AR2009110903302_pf.html
November 10th, 2009 at 7:03 pm
‘Scozzafava’ turns into epithet
It’s a Grand Old Purging as moderate’s ouster spotlights Republican dysfunction
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/11/09/AR2009110903690_pf.html
November 10th, 2009 at 8:06 pm
Palin remains a GOP player
http://www.cnn.com/2009/POLITICS/11/10/gop.palin/index.html
November 10th, 2009 at 8:07 pm
‘Regular guy’ Thune is hot commodity in GOP circles
http://edition.cnn.com/2009/POLITICS/11/10/john.thune/
November 11th, 2009 at 7:35 am
“Scozzafava, who was stripped of her Republican leadership position in the New York State Assembly on Monday,” Well at least the GOP did something right.