Fox News/Opinion Dynamics Survey on Barack Obama’s Presidency

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing as president?

• Approve 50% {49%} (50%) [54%] {53%}
• Disapprove 41% {45%} (42%) [39%] {40%}

How satisfied are you with what Barack Obama has accomplished so far as president?

• Very satisfied 19%
• Somewhat satisfied 37%
• Not very satisfied 16%
• Not at all satisfied 27%

As of now, do you think Barack Obama is meeting, exceeding or falling below expectations?

• Exceeding expectations 8%
• Meeting expectations 40%
• Falling below expectations 47%

Do you think Barack Obama is governing more as a liberal, a moderate or as a conservative?

• Liberal 47%
• Moderate 29%
• Conservative 8%

Thinking about the promises Barack Obama made during the campaign, all in all, do you think he is keeping more promises than he is breaking or breaking more promises than he is keeping?

• Keeping more promises 44%
• Breaking more promises 39%

So far, do you think the Obama administration has started to bring real change to Washington or is it more of the same partisan politics?

• Real change 39% <51%>
• More of the same 56% <40%>

How prepared do you think President Obama is to handle a crisis call to the White House at three in the morning?

• Very prepared 38%
• Somewhat prepared 27%
• Not very prepared 12%
• Not at all prepared 19%

Who do you think is more determined to win the war in Afghanistan — President Obama or the leadership of the Taliban and Al Qaeda?

• President Obama 34%
• Taliban and Al Qaeda 47%

Among Independents

• President Obama 23%
• Taliban and Al Qaeda 61%

Who do you think is more responsible for the current state of the economy — President Barack Obama or former President George W. Bush?

• President Obama 18%
• Former President Bush 58%

How effective do you think the economic stimulus and spending plan that was passed in February has been — very effective, somewhat effective, not very effective or not at all effective?

• Very effective 8%
• Somewhat effective 40%
• Not very effective 26%
• Not at all effective 24%

Do you approve or disapprove of the government limiting the salaries of the highest paid executives at companies that received government bailout money last year?

• Approve 73%
• Disapprove 23%

Some people say government involvement in setting executive salaries at companies that received bailout money may lead to the government trying to set executive salaries for other non-bailout businesses. Do you think that would be a good idea or a bad idea?

• Good idea 25%
• Bad idea 67%

In the United States these days, how important do you think it is for the media to be able to report the news without government involvement and control?

• Extremely important 53%
• Very important 38%
• Not very important 5%
• Not at all important 3%

Recently, the Obama administration has tried to exclude reporters from at least one organization from interviewing administration officials. Some people say it’s not fair for the administration to single out organizations and prevent them from gathering news because that threatens freedom of the press. Others say the administration has every right to control access to its officials, and this doesn’t threaten freedom of the press since other news outlets can interview these officials. Which of these positions is closer to your own?

• Not fair for the administration to deny access because it threatens freedom of the press 61%
• The administration has the right to control access and doing so does not threaten freedom of press 26%

Have you heard about the Obama administration’s criticism of FOX News Channel? If so, who do you think is right in this debate?

• FOX News Channel 56%
• The Obama administration 29%

Survey of 900 registered voters was conducted October 27-28. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points. Party ID breakdown: 40% Democrat; 37% Republican; 17% Independent. Results from the poll conducted September 29-30 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted October 13-14 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted September 15-16 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted August 11-12 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted April 22-23 are in angle brackets.

More indications keep appearing that Sarah Palin is not interested in the 2012 Presidential race. One more sign has just lit up.

It is a simple rule-of-thumb that politicians interested in running for President speak in Iowa for free. Politicians not interested in the Presidency charge speaking fees. The word is Sarah Palin is charging speaking fees to appear in Iowa.

If they haven’t already done so, Palin fans should start to seriously think about a Plan B for 2012.

*Update* As several people have pointed out in the comments, the article actually doesn’t SAY Palin is asking for speaking fees. Only that an overeager Conservative group wants to offer it to try to lure her to the state. The article is primarily about the reaction to that.

My bad. And my thanks to Right for suggesting the update.

Research 2000/Daily Kos NY-23 Special Election Survey

If the election for Congress were held today, would you vote for Bill Owens, the Democrat, Dede Scozzafava, the Republican, or Doug Hoffman, the Conservative Party candidate?

• Bill Owens 33% (35%)
• Doug Hoffman 32% (23%)
• Dede Scozzafava 21% (30%)
• Undecided 14% (12%)

Among Republicans

• Doug Hoffman 41% (27%)
• Dede Scozzafava 34% (46%)
• Bill Owens 13% (18%)
• Undecided 12% (9%)

Among Independents

• Doug Hoffman 47% (35%)
• Bill Owens 28% (32%)
• Dede Scozzafava 11% (22%)
• Undecided 14% (11%)

Among Men

• Doug Hoffman 41% (28%)
• Bill Owens 29% (31%)
• Dede Scozzafava 19% (28%)
• Undecided 11% (13%)

Among Women

• Bill Owens 37% (39%)
• Dede Scozzafava 23% (32%)
• Doug Hoffman 23% (18%)
• Undecided 17% (11%)

(Asked of Hoffman supporters) If the election for Congress were held today, which candidate would be your second choice, Bill Owens, the Democrat, or Dede Scozzafava, the Republican?

• Dede Scozzafava 6% (9%)
• Bill Owens 5% (3%)
• Won’t vote 28% (26%)
• Undecided 61% (62%)

Among Republicans

• Dede Scozzafava 9% (13%)
• Bill Owens 4% (1%)
• Won’t vote 22% (21%)
• Undecided 65% (65%)

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Barack Obama 50% (53%) / 42% (39%) {+8%}
• Doug Hoffman 38% (27%) / 23% (19%) {+15%}
• Bill Owens 36% (33%) / 26% (24%) {+10%}
• Dede Scozzafava 32% (38%) / 46% (35%) {-14%}

Do you favor or oppose creating a government-administered health insurance option that anyone can purchase to compete with private insurance plans?

• Favor 51% (52%)
• Oppose 44% (42%)

Survey of 600 likely voters in the New York’s 23rd Congressional District was conducted October 26-28. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points. Party ID breakdown: 42% Republican; 32% Democrat; 26% Independent. Results from the poll conducted October 19-21 are in parentheses.

Europe is rediscovering the truth of that old adage. In an editorial entitled “We’re waiting, Mr. President”, Der Spiegel decries the lack of leadership from Obama. Some choice quotes:

Afghanistan and Pakistan are being shaken by attacks, and the Taliban is dictating the course of the war. US President Obama has been silent about the situation for far too long and European countries like Germany and France are correct to demand better American leadership on the issue of Afghanistan.

The world has been waiting for clear words from the White House for months. Obama has had government and military analysts studying the military and political situation in the embattled Hindu Kush region since early January. He appointed Richard Holbrooke, probably the US’s most effective diplomat in crisis situations, to be his special envoy to the “AfPak” region, he has replaced generals and he has deployed more troops. The answers Obama asked his experts to provide after taking office have been sitting on his desk for a long time. But the conclusions vary. Obama will have to make his own decision, one that will shape his political fate.

It is to Obama’s credit that he has boldly called for an assessment of the situation in Afghanistan after a seven-year US presence there. Nevertheless, as Clausewitz wrote, “courage is not simply a counterweight to danger, to be used for neutralizing its effects: It is a quality on its own,” and Obama’s administration currently creates the impression that it has been abandoned by courage.

Obama’s silence stands in contrast with the impassioned rhetoric that carried him into the White House. … But why should countries like Germany and France believe the verbose promises of a president who is not even sending a clear message at home, even though he has a majority in both houses of Congress?

There is no doubt that hardly a day passes in Europe without criticism of US policy. This has become a trans-Atlantic ritual. But despite this ritual, Europeans are still looking for one thing from the White House: leadership.

Aren’t these the same guys who have been applauding Obama for his bold apology tours? Why, he even won the Nobel Peace Prize for promising to decrease America’s influence in the world.

Well, they got what they wished for. How’s it working out for ya?

Virginia Commonwealth University 2009 Virginia Governor Poll

Likely Voters:

• Bob McDonnell 51%
• Creigh Deeds 33%

Registered Voters:

• Bob McDonnell 45%
• Creigh Deeds 28%

Job Rating:

• Gov. Kaine: 38% Excellent/Good, 52% Fair/Poor (chart)
• President Obama: 50%/48%

Survey conducted between 10/21-25/09 of 1,007 adults with 3.9% margin of error; 871 registered voters, 4.2% margin of error; & 625 likely voters, 4.9% margin of error.

University of Cincinnati Ohio 2010 Gubernatorial Survey

• Ted Strickland 48%
• John Kasich 47%

Survey of 645 registered voters was conducted October 14-20. The margin of error is +/- 3.7 percentage points. Party ID breakdown: 48% Republican; 43% Democrat; 8% Independent.

Note: In the 2008 presidential election, the breakdown by party was 39% Democrat; 31% Republican; 30% Independent.

From The Lobbyist:

American taxpayers, who have already bailed out GMAC (a consumer finance company partially owned by General Motors) twice, may be hocking over more money very soon. The company is in talks with the government to get the money without letting the government have too much control of the company. According to The Wall Street Journal, at least $2.8 billion is likely to be injected. GMAC is formerly the financial holdings arm of General Motors, and is currently a bank holding company.

As a libertarian-leaning conservative, I’m all for government not having control of much. However, this stance by GMAC is going too far. If they wants another bailout, the executives will have to eat some humble pie and stop pretending they have a leg to stand on with negotiations. Despite what Michigan Democratic Senator Debbie Stabenow said last year, the $25 billion that slipped under the radar during the TARP debate wasn’t small, nor was the bailout GMAC received last December from the Bush adminstration. GMAC should have two choices: government control or bankruptcy.

I say this for two reasons; first, the board members and executive leaders of the company would be in serious danger of losing their jobs if the government took over. Thus, they would be hesitant to let the government step in. Additionally, since the government has (hopefully) learned its lesson about specifying payments in contracts with companies being bailed out, after the AIG bonus debacle this past spring, their pay cuts and bonus cuts would be absolutely substantial IF they were allowed to stay on. As George Will said in a speech I saw last year, executives should sign a contract stating they make no more money than the President of The United States during the time they are using American taxpayer money.

The second reason only two choices should be offered is that if the executives and board members cannot push their egos down enough to accept full government takeover and readjustment, bankruptcy would allow specialization of resources to kick in. At that point, Toyota, Honda, Ford and the other auto companies (and their respective loan organizations) that have actually done a market-satisfactory job of making vehicles would immediately receive the market share opened by a GMAC bankruptcy, given the influence the company has on the automobile industry. This would decrease the amount of resources- including taxpayer money- used to make cars in this country substantially, and allow greater economic growth to take place as the unused resources are used elsewhere. In what is being called “The Great Recession,” this could be a great boon to hard-working Americans as well as Americans who want to be hard-working but can’t due to the recessionary times.

Personally, I prefer bankruptcy for businesses that can’t succeed. Let’s put the pressure on our legislators to do the same.

So says The Heritage Foundation blog.

This little bit just in from NY-23. A debate was held tonight. Hoffman, the Conservative candidate refused to participate. The reason? He didn’t like the local media that was carrying the debate because it was too liberal.

Quote his spokesman:

“North Country Public Radio is the perfect venue to decide who is the most liberal candidate in the race,”

Now I’ve said about four times now that I have no dog in this fight, but is that a lame excuse or what? What is the difference between that and Obama picking a fight with Fox News?

Maybe the local GOP leaders had good valid reasons not to nominate this guy after all.

Who would defend ACORN?

Who would want to overlook the voter registration fraud, the past management embezzlement of funds and subsequent hush-up,and the employees all over the country that were cool with facilitating child sex trafficking and exploitation?

Well pro-Democrat activist group “BraveNewFilms” stepped up to the plate in their latest campaign to restore taxpayer of funding of ACORN:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T2a4MEAoxko[/youtube]

They also are going after FoxNews (by launching http://defoxamerica.com/) for showing these videos which is what news stations are supposed to do when significant national stories like this break.

I can’t think that a campaign like this is going to help as it just brings ACORN’s scandals back into the forefront. So thanks BraveNewFilms for the honesty and proving my suspicion that many left-wing groups think things like facilitating child sex trafficking really aren’t that big of a deal as long as there is a little good mixed in (like giving sub-prime loans to people who can’t afford them).

The Democrats won’t quit:

House Democrats reached agreement Wednesday on key elements of a health care bill that would vastly alter America’s medical landscape, requiring virtually universal sign-ups and establishing a new government-run insurance option for millions.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi planned a formal announcement Thursday morning, but details were still being finalized, lawmakers and aides said. Officials said the legislation could be up for a vote on the House floor next week.

…The final product in the House, reflecting many of President Barack Obama’s priorities, includes new requirements for employers to offer insurance to their workers or face penalties, fines on Americans who don’t purchase coverage and subsidies to help lower-income people do so. Insurance companies would face new prohibitions against charging much more to older people or denying coverage to people with health conditions.

The price tag, topping $1 trillion over 10 years, would be paid for by taxing high-income people and cutting some $500 billion in payments to Medicare providers. The legislation would extend health coverage to around 95 percent of Americans.

…Bills passed by the House and Senate would have to be merged before a final product could be sent to Obama, and there are a number of differences between the two chambers that would have to be reconciled. Among them are the different approaches to the public plan. The House does not include the opt-out provision for states, and it has more stringent requirements for employers. The Senate would use a tax on high-value insurance plans to pay for the bill, an approach that the House version doesn’t have.

In the end, Pelosi, D-Calif., and other House leaders were unable to round up the necessary votes for their preferred version of the government insurance plan – one that would base payment rates to providers on rates paid by Medicare. Instead, the Health and Human Services secretary would negotiate rates with providers, the approach preferred by moderates and the one that will be featured in the Senate’s version.

…The legislation would set up a new purchasing exchange where small businesses and individuals without affordable health care options could shop for and compare insurance plans. The new public plan would be one offered in the exchange, and it would be optional; an analysis by the Congressional Budget Office of early versions of the bill said that the public plan would be expected to cover 9 million to 10 million people by 2019.

The House plan also envisions a significant expansion of Medicaid, the federal-state health care program for low income people.

Democratic leaders still faced disputes over prohibiting taxpayer money for abortions and health care for illegal immigrants, issues they hoped to resolve after the bill’s unveiling.

As many people here and elsewhere have remarked, Conservatives must NOT let up on health care, as Democrats remain committed to capitalizing on their overwhelming control of the White House and Congress.

One particular snippet (“…an analysis by the Congressional Budget Office of early versions of the bill said that the public plan would be expected to cover 9 million to 10 million people by 2019″) of the cited AP article caught my eye. Using round numbers for ease of calculation, I fail to comprehend how a public option would result in health insurance coverage for 95 percent of Americans, as the article claims.

• 40 million uninsured Americans (according to Liberals) – 10 million additional Americans covered by the public option (as per the AP article) = 30 million uninsured Americans

• 30 million uninsured Americans / 300 million total American population = 10 percent of the population uninsured

So, unless I have missed something, the public option would result in approximately 90, not 95, percent of Americans insured, and this doesn’t include individuals who could end up losing coverage due to the public option. The public option rightly scares the living daylights out of us Conservatives, and we must remain on the offensive against it.

In the controversal NY-23 race, Mitt Romney has not endorsed anyone. That has left people wondering where he stood. Today in Virginia while stumping for McDonnell, he clarified his position

“I have chosen not to endorse the Republican candidate in New York’s 23rd District, “Romney said, “and that should speak a certain amount of volume. I can’t endorse our candidate in that race.

Another report has Romney’s spokesman expounding upon his statement:

Romney spokesman Eric Fehrnstrom provided a few more details regarding Romney’s thinking: “Mitt Romney is a Republican and he tends to support the Republican candidate in races and when he can’t because there are too many differences on the issues, he stays out of the race altogether and that’s the course he’s following in the New York special election. He doesn’t plan to make any endorsement at all.”

So there you have it. Mitt expects his non-endorsements to speak with “a certain amount of volume”. We should then not consider it an accident that Mitt has steadfastly refused to endorse the “establishment” candidate (Crist) in Florida.

By tomorrow, Kansas Congressman and Senate candidate Todd Tiahrt will announce the endorsement of Indiana Congressman and House Republican Conference Chairman Mike Pence (right).

Current Senator Sam Brownback is not running for re-election in 2010 and instead running for Kansas Governor.

With former Governor Sebelius in Washington, the winner of the primary election between Tiahrt and fellow Kansas Congressman Jerry Moran is virtually assured a general election victory.

Click here to read more.

Update: I’m now being told the actual endorsement announcement may not occur until next week.  So if it doesn’t occur tomorrow, don’t assume it’s not happening.

______________________________________________________________

Benjamin Hodge publishes the Web site KansasProgress.com, based in Johnson County, KS, in the Greater Kansas City area.  Hodge is a delegate to the Kansas GOP, a former state representative, and a former trustee at Johnson County Community College. You can join Hodge’s efforts on Facebook, through his personal Web site, on Twitter, and through his PAC.

Yesterday, I posted about President Obama’s abortion sleight-of-hand on this site, and one commenter wanted to know who the Democrats were that challenged the president and Speaker Pelosi in a letter about abortion funding in any health care reform bills. Check out my longer post at The Lobbyist for the list.

Franklin & Marshall Pennsylvania 2010 Political Survey

Democratic Senatorial Primary

• Arlen Specter 30% [37%] (33%)
• Joe Sestak 18% [11%] (13%)
• Some other candidate 5% [6%] (6%)
• Don’t know 47% [46%] (48%)

Senatorial Election

• Arlen Specter 33% [37%]
• Pat Toomey 31% [29%]
• Some other candidate 6% [9%]
• Don’t know 30% [25%]

• Pat Toomey 28% [26%]
• Joe Sestak 20% [22%]
• Some other candidate 4% [6%]
• Don’t know 48% [46%]

Republican Gubernatorial Primary

• Tom Corbett 30% [15%]
• Jim Gerlach 8% [6%]
• Some other candidate 5% [6%]
• Don’t know 57% [73%]

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Bob Casey 32% [41%] (32%) / 21% [18%] (17%) {+11%}
• Barack Obama 45% [55%] (57%) / 39% [37%] (27%) {+6%}
• Joe Sestak 11% [13%] / 5% [4%] {+6%}
• Pat Toomey 16% [18%] / 10% [10%] {+6%}
• Ed Rendell 37% [32%] (42%) / 47% [53%] (40%) {-10%}
• Arlen Specter 28% [35%] (31%) / 46% [42%] (37%) {-18%}

How would you rate the way that Arlen Specter is handling his job as U.S. Senator?

• Excellent job 4% [8%] (10%)
• Good job 25% [27%] (24%)
• Only a fair job 36% [35%] (37%)
• Poor job 28% [22%] (18%)

Do you believe that Arlen Specter has done a good enough job as senator to deserve re-election, or do you believe it is time for a change?

• Deserves re-election 23% [34%] (28%)
• Time for a change 66% [54%] (57%)

How would you rate the way that Ed Rendell is handling his job as governor?

• Excellent job 4% [6%] (10%)
• Good job 28% [23%] (28%)
• Only a fair job 30% [35%] (34%)
• Poor job 35% [33%] (25%)

How would you rate the way that Barack Obama is handling his job as President?

• Excellent job 17% [14%] (20%)
• Good job 23% [33%] (35%)
• Only a fair job 31% [29%] (25%)
• Poor job 28% [24%] (19%)

If the 2010 elections for the United States House of Representatives were being held today, would you vote for the Republican Party’s candidate or the Democratic Party’s candidate for the House in your district?

• Democratic Party’s candidate 37%
• Republican Party’s candidate 34%
• Don’t know 27%

Do you think that abortion should be…

• Legal under any circumstances 20% [21%] (18%)
• Legal under certain circumstances 54% [54%] (58%)
• Illegal in all circumstances 23% [23%] (22%)

Which of these statements comes closest to describing your feelings about the Bible?

• The Bible is the inspired word of God but not everything in it should be taken literally, word for word. 49% [48%] (56%)
• The Bible is the actual word of God and is to be taken literally, word for word. 33% [32%] (25%)
• The Bible is an ancient book of fables, legends, history, and moral precepts recorded by men. 15% [17%] (17%)

Survey of 529 registered voters (including subsamples of 250 Democrats and 202 Republicans) was conducted October 20-25. The margin of error is +/- 4.3 percentage points. Party registration breakdown: 49% [48%] (52%) Democrat; 39% [39%] (36%) Republican; 10% [10%] (8%) Independent. Party ID breakdown: 36% [34%] (37%) Democrat; 27% [28%] (23%) Republican; 33% [34%] (35%) Independent. Political views: 39% [43%] (37%) Conservative; 36% [36%] (34%) Moderate; 16% [16%] (19%) Liberal. Results from the poll conducted August 25-31 are in brackets. Results from the poll conducted June 16-21 are in parentheses.

Rasmussen Virginia Gubernatorial Survey

• Bob McDonnell 54% {50%} (51%) [48%] {51%} (49%)
• Creigh Deeds 41% {43%} (42%) [46%] {42%} (41%)

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Bob McDonnell 62% {59%} (44%) [54%] {55%} (53%) / 30% {34%} (37%) [32%] {28%} (30%) {+32%}
• Creigh Deeds 47% {47%} (46%) [50%] {48%} (48%) / 50% {47%} (45%) [42%] {42%} (39%) {-3%}

Which gubernatorial candidate do you trust more on taxes?

• Bob McDonnell 56% {52%} (51%) [50%] {50%} (48%)
• Creigh Deeds 34% {35%} (36%) [36%] {35%} (30%)

Which candidate do you trust more to cut government spending?

• Bob McDonnell 53% {52%} (46%) [49%] {51%} (46%)
• Creigh Deeds 26% {27%} (30%) [31%] {29%} (24%)

Which candidate is more likely to confront Virginia’s transportation problems?

• Bob McDonnell 45% {43%} (45%) [38%] {36%} (36%)
• Creigh Deeds 35% {37%} (32%) [36%] {35%} (33%)

In terms of how you will vote this November, how important is the content of McDonnell’s thesis?

• Very important 24% {29%} (32%) [30%] {17%}
• Somewhat important 17% {26%} (19%) [22%] {19%}
• Not very important 23% {21%} (21%) [17%] {25%}
• Not at all important 28% {18%} (19%) [21%] {24%}

How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President?

• Strongly approve 37% {37%} (40%) [41%] {32%} (39%)
• Somewhat approve 12% {16%} (12%) [8%] {18%} (9%)
• Somewhat disapprove 11% {9%} (9%) [9%] {7%} (10%)
• Strongly disapprove 40% {38%} (39%) [41%] {42%} (41%)

How would you rate the job Tim Kaine has been doing as Governor?

• Strongly approve 26% {23%} (31%) [27%] {20%} (25%)
• Somewhat approve 27% {31%} (28%) [25%] {31%} (31%)
• Somewhat disapprove 20% {19%} (22%) [21%] {25%} (22%)
• Strongly disapprove 25% {24%} (18%) [25%] {21%} (21%)

Does President Obama’s visit to Virginia to campaign for Creigh Deeds make you more likely or less likely to vote for Deeds?

• More likely 24% {23%}
• Less likely 39% {43%}
• It would have no impact 36% {32%}

Survey of 1,000 likely voters was conducted October 27. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points. Results from the poll conducted October 12 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted September 29 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted September 16 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted September 1 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted August 10 are in parentheses.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rsVUEM2wKp0[/youtube]

_____________________________________________

Kristofer Lorelli can be contacted at lorville@rogers.com, on Facebook and Twitter/Kris_Lorelli

Quinnipiac New Jersey Gubernatorial Survey

• Jon Corzine 43% (40%) {39%} [37%] (40%)
• Chris Christie 38% (41%) {43%} [47%] (46%)
• Chris Daggett 13% (14%) {12%} [9%] (7%)

Among Independents

• Chris Christie 45% (41%) {45%} [46%] (55%)
• Jon Corzine 30% (32%) {32%} [30%] (25%)
• Chris Daggett 20% (20%) {16%} [16%] (13%)

Among Men

• Chris Christie 46% (43%) {50%} [51%] (53%)
• Jon Corzine 34% (36%) {34%} [36%] (34%)
• Chris Daggett 15% (17%) {12%} [9%] (7%)

Among Women

• Jon Corzine 51% (44%) {43%} [39%] (46%)
• Chris Christie 31% (39%) {37%} [43%] (40%)
• Chris Daggett 12% (11%) {13%} [10%] (8%)

Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?

Among Christie Supporters

• Mind made up 88% (80%)
• Might change 12% (20%)

Among Corzine Supporters

• Mind made up 80% (75%)
• Might change 19% (24%)

Among Daggett Supporters

• Mind made up 60% (39%)
• Might change 38% (59%)

Among ‘Certain’ Voters

• Jon Corzine 34.4% (30%)
• Chris Christie 33.4% (33%)
• Chris Daggett 7.8% (5%)

(Among Daggett supporters) Who is your second choice for governor?

• Chris Christie 43% (40%)
• Jon Corzine 27% (33%)
• No one/wouldn’t vote 18% (13%)

Some people say that Chris Daggett has no chance of winning the election for governor because he is a third-party candidate. Do you agree or disagree?

• Agree 68% (77%)
• Disagree 27% (19%)

Among Independents

• Agree 71% (75%)
• Disagree 28% (21%)

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Chris Daggett 21% (19%) {11%} [8%] (4%) / 16% (7%) {3%} [4%] (3%) {+5%}
• Chris Christie 37% (38%) {38%} [41%] (42%) / 42% (40%) {38%} [30%] (20%) {-5%}
• Jon Corzine 41% (40%) {34%} [34%] (37%) / 52% (53%) {56%} [57%] (54%) {-11%}

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Jon Corzine is handling his job as Governor?

• Approve 39% (39%) {36%} [34%] (36%)
• Disapprove 54% (56%) {58%} [60%] (58%)

Among Independents

• Approve 29% (34%) {31%} [28%] (26%)
• Disapprove 68% (62%) {63%} [65%] (70%)

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?

• Approve 55% (55%) {56%} [51%]
• Disapprove 39% (40%) {39%} [43%]

Among Independents

• Approve 46% (52%) {50%} [49%]
• Disapprove 46% (43%) {44%} [44%]

Would you say that Chris Christie is honest and trustworthy or not?

• Yes 37% (42%) {37%} [44%]
• No 39% (40%) {36%} [31%]

Would you say that Jon Corzine is honest and trustworthy or not?

• Yes 46% (45%) {44%} [40%]
• No 44% (48%) {45%} [51%]

Would you say that Chris Daggett is honest and trustworthy or not?

• Yes 29% (29%)
• No 14% (8%)

If Jon Corzine is reelected governor, do you think property taxes will go up, go down, or stay about the same?

• Go up 60% (62%) {61%}
• Go down 2% (5%) {3%}
• Stay about the same 34% (30%) {32%}

If Chris Christie is elected governor, do you think property taxes will go up, go down, or stay about the same?

• Go up 37% (35%) {34%}
• Go down 12% (16%) {9%}
• Stay about the same 44% (40%) {46%}

If Chris Daggett is elected governor, do you think property taxes will go up, go down, or stay about the same?

• Go up 39% (22%)
• Go down 6% (11%)
• Stay about the same 32% (32%)

(more…)

There is a rift in the Black Hollywood director community, but the real rift is the same as in the liberal-conservative, redstate-bluestate, Southern/anti-southern divides.

Tyler Perry (pictured courtesy of The Minority Report) of  House of Payne and movie character Madea fame appeared on 60 Minutes this week to respond to criticism from Spike Lee:

“We’ve had this discussion back and forth. When John Singleton [made Boyz in the Hood], people came out to see it. But when he did ‘Rosewood,’ nobody showed up. So a lot of this is on us! You vote with your pocketbook, your wallet. You vote with your time sitting in front of the idiot box, and [Tyler Perry] has a huge audience. We shouldn’t think that Tyler Perry is going to make the same film that I am going to make, or that John Singleton or my cousin Malcolm Lee [would make]. As African-Americans, we’re not one monolithic group, so there is room for all of that. But at the same time, for me, the imaging is troubling and it hearkens back to ‘Amos n’ Andy.’”

I only vaguely remember “Amos and Andy” as a child. Many people I know and respect that were never racist loved the show. I have never seen a whole episode of House of Payne, but I have seen Tyler Perry portray “Madea” in a video of the play “Madea Goes to Jail”, staged in here in Atlanta, and was blown away by how real it was and how conservative were the values it transmitted.

So, it was with great anticipation that I watched Perry’s response on CBS this past Sunday:

“I would love to read that [criticism] to my fan base. All these characters of mine are bait, bait to get people talking about God, love, family, and faith.  You know, that pisses me off.  It really does. Because it’s so insulting. It’s attitudes like that that make Hollywood think that these people do not exist and that’s why there’s no material speaking to them, speaking to us.”

“All these characters are bait, disarming, charming, make-you-laugh bait, so I can slap them into situations where they can talk about God, love, faith, forgiveness, family, any of those things,” says Perry.

And it is in the resentment of Lee and others concerning the “characters” that really reveals what underlies the spite. It reminds me of liberal criticism of some supposed caricatures of black folks that the critics lambasted as racist due to the big lips and other features of the drawings.

Turns out the drawings were accurate depictions of the black subjects, and it made me suppose that maybe many liberal blacks and whites harbour personal disgust (racism?) with respect to certain blacks. And this Lee/Perry episode makes me think that much of the spite directed at Perry’s characters is based on anti-Southern bigotry.

As Perry essentially says in his interview (see it all here), these folks exist, whether NY, Boston or Hollywood likes it or not. Most are in the South, but many are up north and out west as well.

And for conservatives, they are ripe for the picking to turn blue states red, much as my earlier column on Jason Whitlock’s apology to Rush Limbaugh shows as well.

Madea totes a gun to protect herself, her home and and her loved ones. Even in a perfect world the police usually arrive after the innocent are victims. Perry’s Atlanta while too busy too hate, ain’t a perfect world. But many in Atlanta and elsewhere are about building a more perfect union from the same Judeo-Christian principles that the Founders relied upon.

Spike Lee resents that fact almost as much as he resents non-politically correct un-reconstructed Southerners and Blacks.

Mike DeVine’s Charlotte Observer and Minority Report columns

“One man with courage makes a majority.” – Andrew Jackson

CNN/Opinion Research 2012 GOP Nomination

• Mike Huckabee 32% [22%] (26%)
• Sarah Palin 25% [21%] (29%)
• Mitt Romney 21% [21%] (21%)
• Tim Pawlenty 5% [N/A] (N/A)
• Someone Else 10% [10%] (10%)

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Mike Huckabee 43% [45%] / 26% [25%] {+17%}
• Mitt Romney 36% [42%] / 26% [29%] {+10%}
• Tim Pawlenty 15% / 13% {+2%}
• Sarah Palin 42% [46%] / 51% [43%] {-9%}

Thinking about the following characteristics and qualities, please say whether you think each one applies or doesn’t apply to Sarah Palin.

Qualified to be president

• Applies 29%
• Does not apply 71%

Among Republicans

• Applies 52%
• Does not apply 47%

Is a strong and decisive leader

• Applies 47%
• Does not apply 51%

Generally agrees with you on issues you care about

• Applies 48%
• Does not apply 50%

Shares your values

• Applies 49%
• Does not apply 49%

Is honest and trustworthy

• Applies 55%
• Does not apply 43%

Care about the needs of people like you

• Applies 56%
• Does not apply 43%

A good role model for women

• Applies 64%
• Does not apply 35%

Not a typical politician

• Applies 65%
• Does not apply 34%

Survey of 1,038 adults, including a subsample of 462 Republicans was conducted October 16-18. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points; +/- 4.5 percentage points among Republicans. Favorability results and the questions about Sarah Palin are comprised of all adults surveyed. Results from the poll conducted May 14-17 are in brackets. Results from the poll conducted February 18-19 are in parentheses.

Inside the numbers:

“Sarah Palin has one advantage that many past Republican candidates have not shared – Americans think she cares about people like them,” says CNN Polling Director Keating Holland. “But her biggest Achilles heel is the number who think she is not qualified to be President. Those numbers are similar to what Dan Quayle got in 1993, when only 23 percent thought he was ready for the White House.”

“Huckabee appears to have more support among Republicans than Palin and her unfavorable rating among all Americans is twice as high as Huckabee’s,” Holland says. “Palin may attract a lot of attention but the GOP may be looking elsewhere for their frontrunner.”

The CNN poll also shows Palin has lost support among independent voters over the last year, drawing approval from 41 percent of them now, 10 points lower than that group’s approval last year. She fares even worse with self-identified moderate voters, drawing only a 34 percent approval rating.

But does any of that matter? It’s usually die-hard conservatives who vote in Republican presidential primaries, and Palin’s support among this group remains strong, 62 percent, according to the CNN poll.

Jason Whitlock has long been one of this Rush Dittohead’s favorite sports and social commentators, so it was with much chagrin when he wrote a column during the recent Rush-NFL Rams-bid controversy repeating false racist statements to Limbaugh and his Excellence in Broadcasting “network”.

But I am not surprised that the Kansas City Star reporter has redeemed himself:

Let me first apologize to Rush Limbaugh.

Last week in explaining why NFL commissioner Roger Goodell needed to put an end to Limbaugh’s latest publicity stunt, I attributed racially insensitive quotes to Limbaugh that I read in two Missouri newspapers, saw on CNN and confirmed through a Google search. Prior to posting the article, I never found a denial of these quotes by Limbaugh, and had no reason to believe those statements were not true.

It was unfair to Limbaugh. And I regret that. I’ve commented on some of his earlier controversies. I’ve long been an admirer of his broadcasting skills.

It’s nice to read a real apology without the “in case anyone was offended” caveat, isn’t it.

I regret to say that Whitlock still doesn’t totally “get” what Rush is all about given later comments in the mea culpa that equate some of Rush’s commentary to the “divisive” antics of Jesse Jackson and Al Sharpton, but when one considers that much of Rush’s shtick is almost an inside joke for regulars, he can be forgiven. Moreover, when one reads the following from Whitlock, one realizes that he truly is of a conservative bent and open minded:

For the most part, I’ve never taken his political commentary all that seriously. There are virtually no modern-day political figures that I take seriously. Politics and politicians are too dishonest and too controlled by financial influences for my taste. I’ve never participated in American politics. I’ve never voted.

I am not right wing or left wing, Democrat or Republican, liberal or conservative. I’m not beholden to any political agenda. An examination of my work at FOX Sports.com, the Kansas City Star and/or any of the places I’ve worked previously would reveal a free-thinking, hardcore independent.

I dislike and distrust everybody equally.

For the most part, doesn’t that attitude warm a conservative’s heart? it does mine, although given his overall philosophy, I wish he would vote because I think he would usually get it right!

My experiences with Whitlock have been almost totally positive over the years. He, like Limbaugh, was driven from many mainstream media sports talk shows due to his refusal to give race hustlers and thugs a pass. He also went to Jena, LA during that “noose” controversy:

The proof is in my work. As sports columnist, I went down to Jena, Louisiana on my own dime because I wanted to understand the Jena Six controversy. The way the “mainstream” media and Al Sharpton told the story made little sense to me. My suspicions were confirmed after visiting Jena. I wrote a long column for the Kansas City Star explaining how a little-known white minister — Alan Bean — crafted the Jena Six narrative, spoon-fed it to specific, liberal-leaning media members/outlets and watched from the sidelines as his totally one-sided, inaccurate narrative became accepted as fact by virtually all major media organizations.

I pay a price for my independence. I know what it feels like to be unfairly called a racist. It happens to me almost every week after one of my columns. Depending on the topic or the conclusion I reach, black and white people take turns arguing that I hate black or white people.

My point is some days I’m sympathetic to Limbaugh’s plight. He’s a push-the-envelope entertainer. His parody song “Barack The Magic Negro” is one of the funniest things I’ve ever heard on radio. It’s not racist. It’s genius.

Whitlock goes on to express some misguided views of much of Rush’s work, but I am not holding him responsible for fully understanding Rush. Whitlock is not a perfect man, and for that matter neither is Rush nor this crowing rooster, but Jason is about the same business as Rush: truth. Whitlock finds it more often than not, and has the Rush-like courage we need in this culture.

Whitlock joins other courageous black commentators like Juan Williams, Steve Smith and many black NFL players defending Rush. Had Rush’s white business partners had 48 hours more patience, I’ll bet the Rams would have been theirs.

Mike DeVine’s Charlotte Observer, Examiner.com and Minority Report columns and Race 4 2012 website.

“One man with courage makes a majority.” – Andrew Jackson

Originally published @ Examiner.com, where all verification links may be accessed.

Sarah Palin’s focal appeal has always been her cultural roots: from day one, she was packaged as the sharp-shootin’ Alaska Hockey Mom with an NRA membership; the now-proverbial pitbull in lipstick. The Sarah you see is the Sarah you get. And hey — if you’re in politics to piss off liberals, there’s no one better. Despite her incredibly poor unfavorability ratings amongst the electorate at large — or, perhaps, I should say, because of them — she remains an incredible force amongst the grassroots, from the 9/12 Marchers to disgruntled ex-Ron Paul aide Eric Dondero to self-appointed GOP Sheriff Erick Erickson. As my colleague Matthew E. Miller has been relentless in pointing out, Erickson in particular is rather angry at certain Republicans who, unlike Palin, have not yet endorsed Doug Hoffman in the NY-23 Congressional race. And he and the rest of the RINO Police ready to throw Newt Gingrich overboard.

Have we gone completely insane? Who, if not Newt Gingrich, has not established his Republican bona fides? And yet — and yet — toss the bastard overboard if he’s unwilling to cater to the grassroots. (Perhaps of note: I actually support Hoffman in this race.)

But why can’t Gingrich get away with this? There were no calls for Sarah Palin’s head when she bragged about some of the same things Dede Scozzafava’s head is being served to the wolves on a platter for.

The Palin Test, then, is a cultural one: if you’re “one of us,” if you’re not one of the “good old boys,” if you’re not one of the “Washington Elite,” then your actual policy prescriptions are conveniently forgotten. This is why Tim Pawlenty’s lukewarm support for capping carbon emissions has been attacked, while Sarah Palin’s subcabinet agency to combat global warming has been forgotten. It’s why Mitt Romney’s so-called fifty-dollar abortions have been (falsely) held up as an example of his secret disdain for pro-life causes, while Sarah Palin’s appointment of a former Planned Parenthood official to the Alaska Supreme Court has been erased from the historical record. Sarah Palin vetoed a bill that would have barred same-sex couples from state benefits, but it doesn’t matter, even though Mitt Romney is relentlessly pursued by Evangelicals due to his inability to block the implementation of a Massachusetts Supreme Court decision. And let’s not forget the bailout she supported, the outrageous populist baiting of Exxon and Conoco-Philips, or the McCain-Kennedy bill that she was warm toward.

Call me a cynic, but I fail to see how not aborting your baby earns you a free pass on these things.

The viciousness that Palin evokes on the left is another feasible explanation for this unconditional love. If Palin feels the Mama Grizzly instinct when bloggers go after her kids, Erick Erickson wants to be a Mama Grizzly to Sarah Palin. If she spoke out in favor of a massive tax increase tomorrow in order to fund a single-payer health care system, I don’t think that Erickson could leave her side. She’s his forever, for better or for worse; a perplexingly-blank slate that far too many conservatives continue to project their own wants onto. And so long as things remain like this, no matter what she says, Erick Erickson and his ilk will follow her, whether through the valley of death — or straight off of a cliff. The alternative is: hold her to the same standards as everyone else. I don’t see anything so outrageous about that.

Talk to Alex Knepper at apkkib@aol.com

(PS – I’m sure a lot of you will be saying “Alex, I thought you liked her now!” — which only proves my point. You’re allowed to have a favorable opinion toward someone without calling their s**t gold.)

NBC/Wall Street Journal Political Survey

In general, do you approve or disapprove of the job that Barack Obama is doing as president?

• Approve 51% [51%] {51%} (53%)
• Disapprove 42% [41%] {40%} (40%)

Which ONE of the following statements best describes your feelings toward Barack Obama?

• Like personally and approve most policies 44% [46%]
• Like personally but disapprove of many policies 30% [31%]
• Don’t like personally, approve of most policies 3% [2%]
• Don’t like personally, disapprove many policies 19% [18%]

Do you generally approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing in handling the issue of health care reform?

• Approve 43% [45%] {41%} (41%)
• Disapprove 48% [46%] {47%} (46%)

From what you have heard about Barack Obama’s health care plan, do you think his plan is a good idea or a bad idea?

• Good idea 38% [39%] {36%} (36%) [33%]
• Bad idea 42% [41%] {42%} (42%) [32%]

And from what you have heard about Barack Obama’s health care plan, do you believe it will result in the quality of your health care getting better, worse, or staying about the same as now?

• Quality will get better 21% [19%] {24%} (21%)
• Quality will get worse 40% [36%] {40%} (39%)
• Quality will stay the same 27% [34%] {27%} (29%)

And from what you have heard about Barack Obama’s health care plan, do you believe it will result in the cost of your health care going up, down, or staying about the same as now?

• Cost will go up 47%
• Cost will go down 13%
• Cost will stay the same 25%

Do you think it would be better to pass Barack Obama’s health care plan and make its changes to the health care system or to not pass this plan and keep the current health care system?

• Better to pass this plan, make these changes 45% [45%]
• Better to not pass this plan, keep current system 39% [39%]

Do you generally approve or disapprove of the job that Barack Obama is doing in handling the economy?

• Approve 47% [50%] (49%)
• Disapprove 46% [42%] (44%)

Do you generally approve or disapprove of the job that Barack Obama is doing in handling foreign policy?

• Approve 51% [50%] (57%)
• Disapprove 39% [36%] (33%)

In general, do you approve or disapprove of the job that Congress is doing?

• Approve 24% [22%] (24%)
• Disapprove 65% [66%] (63%)

Do you generally approve or disapprove of the way that Republicans in Congress are handling the issue of health care reform?

• Approve 23% [21%] {21%}
• Disapprove 64% [65%] {62%}

When it comes to the partisanship going on in Washington, do you feel this is mainly due to an unwillingness of the Republicans to compromise and find a middle ground to work with the Democrats, or that this is due to an unwillingness of the Democrats to compromise and find a middle ground to work with the Republicans, or do you feel that it is equally the fault of both parties?

• Due to unwillingness of Republicans 24% [22%] (20%)
• Due to unwillingness of Democrats 17% [15%] (18%)
• Equally the fault of both parties 57% [61%] (59%)

Would you strongly support, somewhat support, somewhat oppose, or strongly oppose increasing troop levels in Afghanistan?

• Strongly support 28% [19%]
• Somewhat support 19% [25%]
• Somewhat oppose 15% [20%]
• Strongly oppose 28% [31%]

I’m going to read you possibilities for next steps in Afghanistan. For each one please tell me whether this would be acceptable to you or not acceptable to you.

Sending an additional ten thousand U.S. troops and focusing on fighting insurgents in some areas and putting additional emphasis on training for Afghanistan’s army and police.

• Acceptable 55%
• Not acceptable 36%

Sending an additional forty thousand U.S. troops and focusing on fighting insurgents across the country and protecting the Afghan people.

• Acceptable 43%
• Not acceptable 49%

When it comes to making major decisions on overall military strategy and the number of troops needed, such as in Afghanistan, who do you have more confidence in to make the right decisions––the president and secretary of defense OR the generals running operations in the country?

• The generals running operations in the country 62%
• The president and secretary of defense 25%

Thinking about Iran, if Iran continues with its nuclear research and is close to developing a nuclear weapon, do you believe that the United States should or should not initiate military action to destroy Iran’s ability to make nuclear weapons? Do you feel strongly about that, or not?

• Feel strongly the U.S. should initiate military action 45%
• Feel the U.S. should initiate military action 7%
• Feel the U.S. should not initiate military action 10%
• Feel strongly the U.S. should not initiate military action 27%

Positive / Negative {Net}

• Stanley McChrystal 34% / 6% {+28%}
• Barack Obama 56% [56%] (55%) / 33% [33%] (34%) {+23%}
• Democratic Party 42% [41%] (42%) / 36% [39%] (37%) {+6%}
• Olympia Snowe 17% / 18% {-1%}
• Mitch McConnell 9% / 14% {-5%}
• John Boehner 9% / 15% {-6%}
• Harry Reid 14% / 26% {-12%}
• Nancy Pelosi 26% [27%] (25%) / 42% [44%] (44%) {-16%}
• Sarah Palin 27% (32%) / 46% (43%) {-19%}
• Republican Party 25% [28%] (28%) / 46% [43%] (41%) {-21%}

(more…)

Another masterful statement on health care:
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FmoTtw9794A[/youtube]

This man deserves more responsibility and influence. Along with Gov. Pawlenty, he could help bring back the Upper Midwest for the GOP and provide the optimistic, positive and inclusive message the party needs.

“The middle” among American voters:

1. Want balanced budgets.
2. Oppose card-check.
3. Oppose taxpayer-funded abortion-on-demand.
4. Are, at best, uncomfortable with any form of abortion being used as a form of birth control.
5. Oppose bailouts of “favored” private companies by the elected majority.
6. Want elected officials to be able and willing to confidently defend their views and voting records.

In New York’s 23rd Congressional District, the candidate who is the closest to “the American middle” is Conservative Party nominee Doug Hoffman.   With any of the above themes, the Republican candidate Dede Scozzafava disagrees with mainstream American voters.  On the last point above, rather than defend her record, the Scozzafavas acted in a cowardly, bullying manner by filing a false police report and lying about a reporter’s actions; by all indications, this violated New York state law.

Recent NY-23 news:

• Arguably, the endorsement of Doug Hoffman that has caused the the biggest “thud” yet came from former Oklahoma Congressman Tom Cole, who led the NRCC from 2006-2008.
• Jim DeMint endorsed Doug Hoffman.
• Fred Thompson stars in a 30-second TV ad for Doug Hoffman.
• Former US Senator Al D’Amato (R-NY) indicates that he will soon be endorsing Doug Hoffman.
• John Boehner:  ”Well, there’s no question that New York-23 is a bit of a mess.”
• NPR: “NY 23: Can Doug Hoffman Pull A ‘Buckley?’”
• “Club Launches New TV Ad in NY-23″.

Meanwhile, Obama is leaving no doubt that he’s endorsing the agenda of the far-left base of the Democratic party.  From Tom Bevan at RCP:

“First of all, I don’t think people quite understand, Nancy Pelosi is not simply the first woman Speaker of the House — I think she’s going to go down as one of the greatest Speakers of all time. (Applause.) And she’s very nice and she’s very friendly, but, boy, she is tough. (Laughter.) And that’s what you need when you’re putting up with all the criticism and the carping and the griping — and that’s from the Democrats. (Laughter.) I mean, you should see what she has to put up with — from the Republicans. So I could not have a better partner in trying to move the country than Nancy Pelosi.” – President Obama at a Democratic fundraiser in Miami last night.

Click here to visit Doug Hoffman for Congress.

______________________________________________________________

Benjamin Hodge publishes the Web site KansasProgress.com, based in Johnson County, KS, in the Greater Kansas City area.  Hodge is a delegate to the Kansas GOP, a former state representative, and a former trustee at Johnson County Community College. You can join Hodge’s efforts on Facebook, through his personal Web site, on Twitter, and through his PAC.

Last Friday, I put a post on TheLobbyist.net entitled: Democrats Lied, Kids May Die. I regret that I must update it- according to CNSNews.com, Representative Bart Stupak (D-Michigan) was told by President Obama in a recent phone conversation that when the president said in his September 9 address to a joint session of Congress that abortions would not be funded in health care reform, what the president meant was under HIS plan, not necessarily under any Congressional plans, abortions would not be funded. According to Stupak, regarding his phone conversation with the president: “…And I said: ‘With all due respect, sir, you do not have a plan. The only plan we have out is the House plan.’ So, I don’t know if it is a game of semantics or what.” Stupak has led the charge by approximately 30 pro-life Democrats to explicitly guarantee abortions would not be covered under the final health care reform bill.

Stupak is to be commended for sticking to his pro-life principles- after all, despite what Democrats like Patrick Kennedy may say, abortion is all about health care reform. (Respecting the vulnerable in society, prolonging life, etc.) Here’s hoping- and praying- that more people find out that President Obama lied, “may have misled some people,” whatever you want to call it, and make their voices heard in support of Stupak.

Barry Casselman, who has identified several national figures as future players long before most other pundits had even heard of them (Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton, among them), thinks so:

Governor Tim Pawlenty is becoming more and more public with his plans for 2012. Fundraising events in Washington, DC in recent days indicate there is some national interest in his potential candidacy for the presidency. Reportedly there was a bigger-than- expected crowd at the low-dollar component of the fundraiser. The positive signs are that the Minnesota governor has the attention of many in the national media, most of whom are reporting about him favorably. Governor Pawlenty is an exceptionally skilled political communicator.

Mr. Casselman concludes the article advising us that, “This could be history in the making.”

Be sure to read the whole piece here.

SurveyUSA Virginia Gubernatorial Survey

• Bob McDonnell 58% (59%) [54%] {55%} (54%) [55%]
• Creigh Deeds 41% (40%) [43%] {41%} (42%) [40%]

Among Democrats

• Creigh Deeds 85% (87%) [88%] {85%} (80%) [86%]
• Bob McDonnell 14% (12%) [11%] {13%} (19%) [11%]

Among Moderates

• Bob McDonnell 50% (44%) [41%] {41%} (42%) [44%]
• Creigh Deeds 49% (55%) [56%] {55%} (51%) [52%]

Among Independents

• Bob McDonnell 60% (71%) [54%] {59%} (52%) [60%]
• Creigh Deeds 38% (27%) [39%] {35%} (41%) [35%]

Among Republicans

• Bob McDonnell 92% (92%) [89%] {89%} (88%) [88%]
• Creigh Deeds 7% (7%) [9%] {10%} (7%) [7%]

Among Men

• Bob McDonnell 61% (64%) [62%] {57%} (56%) [61%]
• Creigh Deeds 38% (35%) [36%] {40%} (39%) [36%]

Among Women

• Bob McDonnell 55% (53%) [47%] {53%} (52%) [49%]
• Creigh Deeds 44% (45%) [49%] {43%} (45%) [44%]

Survey of 502 likely voters was conducted October 25-26. The margin of error is +/- 4.4 percentage points. Party ID breakdown: 37% (33%) [37%] {37%} (36%) [38%] Republican; 32% (32%) [32%] {32%} (33%) [32%] Democrat; 30% (33%) [30%] {29%} (29%) [29%] Independent. Results from the poll conducted October 2-4 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted October 17-19 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted September 26-28 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted September 4 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted July 27-28 are in square brackets.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_6rNDBXl0nY&feature=player_embedded#[/youtube]

PPP (D) New Jersey Gubernatorial Survey

• Chris Christie 42% [40%] {44%}
• Jon Corzine 38% [39%] {35%}
• Chris Daggett 13% [13%] {13%}
• Undecided 6% [8%] {7%}

Among Independents

• Chris Christie 44% [42%] {48%}
• Jon Corzine 25% [28%] {29%}
• Chris Daggett 24% [19%] {16%}
• Undecided 7% [11%] {6%}

(Asked only of Daggett voters) Is your second choice for governor Chris Christie or Jon Corzine?

• Chris Christie 44% [48%] {48%}
• Jon Corzine 32% [34%] {32%}
• Don’t know 25% [18%] {20%}

Do you think it is possible for Chris Daggett to win the race for Governor?

• Yes 14%
• No 72%

If you thought it was possible for Chris Daggett to win, would you vote for him?

• Yes 20%
• No 60%
• Not sure 20%

Regardless of who you think has a chance to win, which candidate do you think would make the best Governor?

• Chris Christie 41%
• Jon Corzine 34%
• Chris Daggett 18%

Among Independents

• Chris Christie 45%
• Chris Daggett 25%
• Jon Corzine 23%

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Chris Christie 45% [42%] {45%} (42%) [43%] / 44% [44%] {41%} (32%) [33%] {+1%}
• Chris Daggett 31% [30%] {21%} / 36% [24%] {16%} {-5%}
• Jon Corzine 33% [37%] {32%} (33%) [36%] / 60% [55%] {60%} (56%) [56%] {-27%}

Among Independents

• Chris Christie 51% [46%] {49%} (47%) [46%] / 40% [36%] {32%} (26%) [28%] {+11%}
• Chris Daggett 37% [33%] {30%} / 32% [18%] {13%} {+5%}
• Jon Corzine 24% [28%] {22%} (29%) [24%] / 70% [64%] {74%} (61%) [70%] {-46%}

Do you approve or disapprove of President Barack Obama’s job performance?

• Approve 47% {45%} (53%)
• Disapprove 45% {48%} (39%)

Among Independents

• Approve 40% {36%} (48%)
• Disapprove 50% {56%} (42%)

Survey of 630 likely voters was conducted October 23-26. The margin of error is +/- 3.9 percentage points. Party ID breakdown: 43% [40%] {39%} Democrat; 30% [31%] {33%} Republican; 27% [30%] {28%} Independent. Political views: 50% [51%] {52%} Moderate; 30% [28%] {29%} Conservative; 20% [21%] {19%} Liberal. Results from the poll conducted October 9-12 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted September 11-14 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted July 24-27 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted June 27-29 are in square brackets.

Inside the numbers:

There are several indications within the numbers that Christie is in a better position than Corzine one week out from the election. 95% of his supporters say they will definitely vote for him, compared to 79% of Corzine’s. Daggett’s support continues to be pretty malleable, with only 57% of his voters saying they are strongly committed to him. 42% of Christie’s voters are very excited about voting this fall to 29% of Corzine’s who express that sentiment.

Chris Daggett’s candidacy appears to be having a major impact on this race. His support is steady at 13% from two weeks ago but whereas before he appeared to be drawing voters away from Christie he now seems to be hurting Corzine. 44% of Daggett voters say that the incumbent is their second choice to 32% for Christie. The previous poll showed those second choice votes going to Christie by a 48-34 margin. 43% of Daggett voters are Democrats to just 9% who are Republicans. They report having supported Barack Obama by a 62-31 margin last fall and that they went 62-18 for Corzine against Doug Forrester.

A couple notes on Daggett’s support: in addition to the fact that 43% of his supporters say they might vote for someone else 59% of them say they are ‘not very excited’ about voting this fall compared to 28% of Christie’s and 30% of Corzine’s. Additionally just 46% of those who say they’re voting for him think it’s possible to win.