Siena New York 23rd Congressional District Survey
If the special election were held today, who would you vote for?
- Bill Owens 36% (33%) [28%]
- Doug Hoffman 35% (23%) [16%]
- Dede Scozzafava 20% (29%) [35%]
Among Democrats
- Bill Owens 66% (55%) [48%]
- Doug Hoffman 14% (10%) [6%]
- Dede Scozzafava 11% (17%) [26%]
Among Republicans
- Doug Hoffman 50% (27%) [22%]
- Dede Scozzafava 29% (40%) [47%]
- Bill Owens 13% (19%) [16%]
Among Independents
- Doug Hoffman 40% (31%) [20%]
- Bill Owens 35% (28%) [23%]
- Dede Scozzafava 15% (24%) [26%]
Clinton/Essex/Franklin/Fulton/Hamilton
- Bill Owens 46% (45%) [32%]
- Doug Hoffman 33% (21%) [18%]
- Dede Scozzafava 13% (20%) [31%]
Jefferson/Lewis/St. Lawrence
- Dede Scozzafava 34% (44%) [53%]
- Bill Owens 30% (25%) [23%]
- Doug Hoffman 28% (13%) [10%]
Madison/Oneida/Oswego
- Doug Hoffman 44% (34%) [20%]
- Bill Owens 33% (31%) [30%]
- Dede Scozzafava 12% (21%) [20%]
Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}
- Barack Obama 59% (56%) [55%] / 37% (40%) [38%] {+22%}
- Doug Hoffman 41% (23%) [16%] / 37% (15%) [13%] {+4%}
- Bill Owens 40% (32%) [23%] / 36% (22%) [12%] {+4%}
- Dede Scozzafava 29% (37%) [33%] / 51% (32%) [20%] {-22%}
Which candidate do you think has been waging the most positive campaign?
- Bill Owens 30%
- Doug Hoffman 27%
- Dede Scozzafava 16%
Which candidate do you think has been waging the most negative campaign?
- Dede Scozzafava 27%
- Doug Hoffman 23%
- Bill Owens 20%
Regardless of which candidate you plan to vote for, who do you think will win the special election?
- Bill Owens 37%
- Doug Hoffman 22%
- Dede Scozzafava 20%
Survey of 704 likely voters was conducted October 27-29. The margin of error is +/- 3.7 percentage points. Click here for crosstabs. Results from the poll conducted October 11-13 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted September 27-29 are in brackets.
Scozzafava Halts Campaign
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yNv4UOB5YV0&feature=player_embedded[/youtube]
October 31st, 2009 at 11:29 am
SCOZZAFAVA SUSPENDS CAMPAIGN
http://www.watertowndailytimes.com/article/20091031/NEWS09/910319997
This was a very classy move. Unlike, say, congratulating and well wishing a candidate – and then opting to run against said candidate the next day.
I’ll say this for all of you True Believers – your nerdling had BETTER win this now.
October 31st, 2009 at 11:30 am
Hoffman is now a 65% favorite on Intrade:
http://www.intrade.com/?request_operation=main&request_type=action&checkHomePage=true
October 31st, 2009 at 11:32 am
Adam,
How can you be so sure that Dede was going to win to begin with? Do you really think the rank and file would be out beating the buses for a tax-raising, free-spending, abortion-loving, card-checking liberal?
October 31st, 2009 at 11:32 am
I said all along that I would rather have had Hoffman, but I didn’t like the third party implications. Hoffman will win this now, but the third party situation could jump up and bite us in the future.
October 31st, 2009 at 11:33 am
PPP(D) says it was a blowout prior to Dede’s decision to suspend her campaign:
http://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/5314747062
This one is over folks. Updated prediction:
Hoffman 52%
Owens 37%
Scozzafava 10%
October 31st, 2009 at 11:36 am
#5
You are the man, Tommy. Whatever you say.
October 31st, 2009 at 11:39 am
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2009/10/31/republican-scozzafava-suspends-new-york-congressional-campaign/
October 31st, 2009 at 11:41 am
MWS,
It doesn’t matter. The Democrats were no more enthused about the pro-lifer Owens. And we saw the polling. Before Bad Teeth Screetch and his loverboys Beck and Limbaugh poisoned the well – Scozzafava was up 7 in a 42R-31D district and had all the name recognition in Watertown.
October 31st, 2009 at 11:42 am
I hope Hoffman loses. That will teach Limbaugh, Beck and Palin a lesson.
October 31st, 2009 at 11:45 am
Newt Gingrich just endorsed Hoffman.
October 31st, 2009 at 11:46 am
Jason, Martha, IL Guy, whoever else supports Romney:
Mark my words. Today is the day that I am now confident that Romney will never be president. Everything that just happened to the Republican nominee in NY-23 will happen to Romney in a primary election. This is our “Waterloo”. Just watch. The inmates have taken over the asylum.
The Purists have too much power. The party is being purged of everyone not in complete ideological lockstep. It’s worse than that. Even those that now ARE ideologically pure – but have a history of being less than that are not welcome.
The party is just contracting more and more. There is no way a blue state governor can become our nominee because they will dig up all kinds of dirt to demonstrate how the Caribou Queen is more of a “True Conservative” – and it WILL work. Because she is from freakin’ Alaska.
Same thing will happen to Pawlenty if his national numbers pose a threat to whichever puppet the hard right wants to install as our nominee.
October 31st, 2009 at 11:48 am
1, 8. Absolutely right.
October 31st, 2009 at 12:00 pm
#11, unfortunately, you’re correct. And the Democrats will move farther left.
The polarization of this country is becoming quite a problem, and it will likely be nigh-paralyzing to our government in the near future. (particiularly if the Republicans take over Congress)
October 31st, 2009 at 12:04 pm
#11:
I agree with your sentiment. As I asked in the other thread, who is next? John McCain? Rudy Giuliani? Newt Gingrich? Who else isn’t pure enough for the Redstate Politburo? Are those of us who weren’t 100% on board the Hoffman bandwagon going to get thrown out too?
October 31st, 2009 at 12:20 pm
Gee, now all Palin has to do is endorse Rubio to get RINO Crist to drop out!!!
(and also so we’ll be able to later see Palin/Rubio ’12)
October 31st, 2009 at 12:24 pm
11. Maybe so. Thats why I wouldn’t be too upset if Hoffman loses.
October 31st, 2009 at 12:24 pm
11. Let’s face it, it’s not just ideology, it’s religion as well.
October 31st, 2009 at 12:36 pm
You guys put too much emphasis in what happens in the NY 23 race sets in stone the outcome of 2012. Too early to know what REALLY happens. I want Hoffman to win and we should be happy if he wins. The Final 4 will be Romney, Pawlenty, Huckabee, and Palin (that’s about 99% sure it will be one of these four but not sure who).
October 31st, 2009 at 12:41 pm
Daggett Should Follow the Scozzafava Lead
by Rick Santorum
http://corner.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MTExNmI2NDkzMTEzYWRkOWQ1OTU1MjA2ZjUzYzNiMmE=
October 31st, 2009 at 12:41 pm
NY-23: Scozzafava Drops Out, Saving Face for Petrified National Republicans
http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2009/10/31/799108/-NY-23:-Scozzafava-Drops-Out,-Saving-Face-for-Petrified-National-Republicans
October 31st, 2009 at 12:42 pm
Steven S:–
Wrong, it means that (barring some unforseen circumstance) Palin has the GOP Nomination in 2012!!! Don’t kid yourself, this NY 23 is BIG BIG BIG because it means Palin has garnered control and/or leadership of the GOP!
October 31st, 2009 at 12:44 pm
#15 Don’t count that happening Jack. Crist and Palin are very good friends and she would never do that to him.
Mitt Romney will never be president because Palin will be endorsing Tim Pawlenty in the primaries.
October 31st, 2009 at 12:44 pm
I really think that Marco Rubio will end up defeating Charlie Crist.
As to the question of whether or not Mike Huckabee can win the nomination, it all depends on the calendar and Sara Palin.
It is hard to imagine Huckabee winning if the 2012 calendar is the same as it was in 2008 with Florida and all of the Northern and Northeastern states following IA, NH, NV, & SC.
If Palin gets in, it easy to imagine that her and Huck split the vote and Romney wins.
October 31st, 2009 at 12:48 pm
Tim:–
Pawlenty???!!!???
zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
It’s gonna be Palin!
October 31st, 2009 at 12:50 pm
Kavon:–
No one has the STAR POWER of PALIN, not Huckabee (the Dems and MSM favorite choice for obvious reasons), clearly not Pawlenty, not Romney (base doesn’t trust), not anyone.
October 31st, 2009 at 12:58 pm
She isn’t interested in electoral politics right now, I think she is happy being a movement leader for now.
October 31st, 2009 at 12:59 pm
Tim,
Come on Tim, is the Pope Catholic?
October 31st, 2009 at 1:04 pm
http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2009/10/ny-23-polling-odyssey.html
October 31st, 2009 at 1:10 pm
Erick from the Red State blog wrote an article that the Democratic might win NY District 23 Tuesday night since Dede has drop out of the race today. The Republican Party need to clean up their leadership and get rid of these Rino’s. Huckabee and Romney won’t get the nominee in 2012. They are the Rino’s and not a true conservative. They are done!
October 31st, 2009 at 1:12 pm
Palin doesnt have the nomination. This race doesn’t give it to her. She does gain from supporting Hoffman if he wins, but it doesn’t guarantee her 2012.
October 31st, 2009 at 1:14 pm
GOP responds to Scozzafava dropping out of race
http://voices.washingtonpost.com/thefix/house/gop-leadership-statement-on-ny.html?wprss=thefix
RNC Chairman Michael Steele released the following:
October 31st, 2009 at 1:15 pm
In NY’s 23rd, conservatives bag a GOP heretic in Scozzafava
http://blogs.ajc.com/jay-bookman-blog/2009/10/31/in-nys-23rd-conservatives-bag-a-gop-heretic-in-scozzafava/?cxntfid=blogs_jay_bookman_blog
October 31st, 2009 at 1:16 pm
Newt tweets:
October 31st, 2009 at 1:17 pm
Steven S, well, yes, Palin has to, and will, do things, to win the nomination.
What’s your point, that there’s no guarantee in life? OK
October 31st, 2009 at 1:19 pm
Aron, the GOP WAS getting small (by ignoring its base).
Reagan GREW the party by representing the base!
October 31st, 2009 at 1:19 pm
Scozzafava Neutral By Design, RNC Backs Hoffman
http://www.nydailynews.com/blogs/dailypolitics/2009/10/scozzafava-neutral-by-design-r.html
October 31st, 2009 at 1:31 pm
#5- Are you serious? You are taking a partially completed poll of 200 people (who knows which counties they had polled so far) and treating it as if it’s a relevant piece of data. In the fully completed Siena poll, the debate-ducking coward/carpetbagger Hoffman is LOSING, yet you say the race is over and that he’ll win by 15 points.
October 31st, 2009 at 2:18 pm
To all calling this an “ideologcal purge,” and the only reason Scozzafava wasn’t supported was because she wasn’t “100% pure,” get a grip. Most REPUBLICANS in NY-23 didn’t want her, as demonstrated by her plummeting numbers. She was a bad candidate, pushed on the GOP by a few people, and when people started to think she wasn’t the only one that could win, they turned on her. Despite promises to the contrary, most people didn’t believe she’d moderate her fairly liberal views. To the extent that conservatives don’t want Karl Marx in the party, this was a purge. Despite what you might think (and mostly shy away from bringing up), this wasn’t about social views, but overall views.
October 31st, 2009 at 2:26 pm
Ariel,
There’s a lot of money for you to make on Intrade if you think Owens is going to win.
October 31st, 2009 at 2:35 pm
Rudy, Indie in Turnpike Tussle
http://www.nypost.com/f/print/news/local/rudy_indie_in_pike_tussle_nzRsNo5ILeugdKUM3C9R5N
October 31st, 2009 at 3:31 pm
Richard,
That’s not the worry. Grant for the sake of argument that Dede is a “dirty rotten liberal” – ok? Where does it stop? How often do we hear from the like of Limbaugh and Beck that McCain isn’t sufficiently conservative – or Graham or Voinovich?
If the candidate wasn’t Scozzafava but a McCain clone – and Palin decided to jump ship and support a third party candidate – and all of the national hard right poisoned the well and painted McCain clone candidate as a communist – would the Republicans follow right along? Maybe they would. Maybe these opinion leaders rule the roost. That’s the fear.
October 31st, 2009 at 4:27 pm
#11 Adam:
I think you could be right, our choice has been made for us.
October 31st, 2009 at 4:31 pm
Adam:
Will McCain and Rudy still be allowed as the Republican party is purged?
October 31st, 2009 at 4:52 pm
“To all calling this an “ideologcal purge,” and the only reason Scozzafava wasn’t supported was because she wasn’t “100% pure,” get a grip. Most REPUBLICANS in NY-23 didn’t want her, as demonstrated by her plummeting numbers. She was a bad candidate, pushed on the GOP by a few people, and when people started to think she wasn’t the only one that could win, they turned on her. Despite promises to the contrary, most people didn’t believe she’d moderate her fairly liberal views. To the extent that conservatives don’t want Karl Marx in the party, this was a purge. Despite what you might think (and mostly shy away from bringing up), this wasn’t about social views, but overall views.”
BINGO, a big tent is one thing, but we have our limits. There are more Conservative than liberals in the party, so if the liberals want to split the party in two. Bring it on! You guys can’t make a bigger mess than you have.
October 31st, 2009 at 4:53 pm
Adam: I share this concern — there is always a possibility that any idea will be taken to extremes. But aren’t you backing the extreme position in the opposite direction — that we are obligated to ALWAYS back the Republican candidate, with no exceptions, regardless of how liberal s/he is?
I worry about the consequences of either extreme.
There are consequences to allowing party leaders to believe they can shove anyone they want down our throats.
I oppose RINO-bashing, and I do worry that some will take this example and go crazy with it. I’m perfectly prepared to support moderate Republicans in most cases. But Scozzafava was not moderate.
I hope this case will send a wake-up message to Beltway Republicans.
October 31st, 2009 at 5:17 pm
PPP tweets:
October 31st, 2009 at 5:20 pm
Someone’s numbers are way off…
Siena New York 23rd Congressional District Survey
Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}
Barack Obama 59% / 37% {+22%}
Meanwhile PPP’s Tom Jensen tweets:
October 31st, 2009 at 5:42 pm
Aron,
Not necessarily. You can admire someone and still disapprove of their performance.
Just look at Palin’s CNN numbers.
October 31st, 2009 at 5:53 pm
Owens will now win in a cakewalk. That is MY prediction.
October 31st, 2009 at 5:55 pm
Adam, I am afraid you are right. Pity too. With these nutters running (or ruining) the show, we are all but guarenteed of an 8 yr Obama run.
Hey, one tries to think in this party, and we get shut down!
October 31st, 2009 at 5:55 pm
#49 Intrade awaits your bet. You can make a ton of money if your prediction becomes accurate.
October 31st, 2009 at 5:57 pm
11. Wait till they find out that Trip is adopted, and not birthed by Queen Ester, as she claims…. Wild ride from TX with special needs kid about to pop? Naaaaaaaa. Square pillow in tummy.
October 31st, 2009 at 6:01 pm
Is OhMy a Knickers sock puppet? Sounds nutty enough.
October 31st, 2009 at 6:04 pm
Bobm. LOL.
Stand by. Owens will pull it off! And sock puppet! yea, that’s so much better than being the Murdock butt gal, eh?
October 31st, 2009 at 7:38 pm
#50 Knickers:
Rush, Levine, Hannity, FOX, and Beck have been talking about the Party of Reagan, and a Conservative Movement since the 2008′ primaries.
At least a lot of things have been answered as to why Rush, Levine, Hannity, Beck, FOX, Kristoland others have elevated Palin’s stature into the stratosphere. After the election, they went to work building her up and building a support base they knew they would need for her to lead their Conservative Movement.
These were the major players in Palin’s popularity… There was never any logic as to why these guys were hanging onto her every word as they elevated her into something she wasn’t, even if they had to bring Romney down a few notches as he is considered one of the major Leaders of the Republican party because of the work he does trying to unite the GOP. \
Watch to see if they begin to rehabilitate Romney a bit if they see this thing go to far, and a Palin or Huckabee nomination is more than they can handle.
October 31st, 2009 at 9:09 pm
“11. Maybe so. Thats why I wouldn’t be too upset if Hoffman loses.” Martha, You are now on record as joining the liberal wacko wing of the party. When I mention the other day about your camp having a wacko liberal wing. I was not at the time thinking that you were quite part of that wing, but today you and a few others around here have shown that you are part of that wing. Even Mr. Gingrich has now backed Mr. Hoffman, but you guys backing the Dem are even further to the left than him. Mr. Romney has got more problems than I thought. If he moves to the right, it means he throws you under the bus.
October 31st, 2009 at 9:11 pm
“Watch to see if they begin to rehabilitate Romney a bit if they see this thing go to far, and a Palin or Huckabee nomination is more than they can handle.” Well apparently, your TARP Queen in NY was more than they could handle.
October 31st, 2009 at 9:27 pm
“11. Wait till they find out that Trip is adopted, and not birthed by Queen Ester, as she claims…. Wild ride from TX with special needs kid about to pop? Naaaaaaaa. Square pillow in tummy.” Another Romneyite is let loose from the insane asylum!
October 31st, 2009 at 9:40 pm
OHIO JOE: #57
I think there are very few people who are behind this movement want Palin to be President, that is just my opinion, I know a lot of people here don’t think that.
October 31st, 2009 at 9:55 pm
“I think there are very few people who are behind this movement want Palin to be President” That is all fine and dandy that you and others do not support Mrs. Palin; it is that fact that you guys support Dede that disgusts me. Look, a Romneyite friend of mine popped by this morning and he is just as Pro-Hoffman (anti-Dede) as I am. So you Romneyites have fun keeping your Pro & Anti Dede factions together.
October 31st, 2009 at 10:03 pm
Christie fires up Hunterdon base on campaign stop with Lonegan
http://www.politickernj.com/max/34677/christie-fires-hunterdon-base-campaign-stop-lonegan
October 31st, 2009 at 10:22 pm
#61 More evidence that Corzine will win in my opinion. Christie is still trying to woo the base at this late stage in the game.
October 31st, 2009 at 11:18 pm
Now that Dede has withdrawn, perhaps Sarah Palin will reconsider her endorsement. Dede went rogue and pulled a Palin, even outdoing her by quitting before the election.
It’s a really odd event in the 23rd. You have a conservative candidate who lives outside the district, being endorsed and supported by conservatives , who live outside the district, and claim that they, from outside the 23rd, represent the voters of the 23rd.
So now for the first time since the 1870′s the Democrats have a chance to win the North Country seat. If we get Owens in, it will leave Peter King as the only GOP congressman in the Empire State.
November 1st, 2009 at 6:37 am
” Now that Dede has withdrawn, perhaps Sarah Palin will reconsider her endorsement. Dede went rogue and pulled a Palin, even outdoing her by quitting before the election.
It’s a really odd event in the 23rd. You have a conservative candidate who lives outside the district, being endorsed and supported by conservatives , who live outside the district, and claim that they, from outside the 23rd, represent the voters of the 23rd.”
Haha, very funny, if Ms. Scozzafava is so in touch with this district how come she “went rogue” (your words) and withdrew in disgrace? I’ll have to remain you again that Mr. Gingrich does not live in NY-23 either, but that did not stop him from sticking his nose there and backing the wrong candidate until he saw the light.
November 2nd, 2009 at 4:13 pm
This is a very good and interesting twist for this race and the GOP.
There is a “liberal party”, it is the Dems. If one wishes an anti-Constitutional, over bearing government, then get all the Dems in you can…..like now.
However, the Republican party needs to step up as a Constitutional party, one who upholds the oath these rascals take to get into office. If not, they will suffer at the hands of the third parties until they wither and die as a party.
It would be best for all concerned if the GOP becomes a true American party, not the special interest party that the Dems are. The course taken by the GOP for 2008 demonstrates exactly what will happen if they continue on the “just as liberal but better” route they took with RINO McClueless. They will be shoved aside.
Those Constitution loving Americans will either take over the GOP, as they should, or start their own party. The former is the quickest and best way to right this nation. The latter will be the course if need be, with the GOP dying a slow painful death, the Dems running this country into the take and a Third party emerging with both Conservative republicans and democrats coming on board.
Hoffman will represent the people of the 23rd as a Republican and will be re-elected as a Republican in the next election. The rest of the liberal RINOs will be looking to “Specter” out of the party which is just fine.
February 13th, 2010 at 7:18 pm
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