Fairleigh Dickinson/PublicMind 2009 New Jersey Governor Poll

In November there will be an election for governor. I know it’s early but if the election were held today who would you vote for … Jon Corzine, the Democrat or Chris Christie, the Republican?

• Jon Corzine 44% {44%} [42%] (39%)
• Chris Christie 43% {43%} [47%] (45%)
• Chris Daggett (vol.) 6% {4%}
• Neither/other (vol.) 2% {4%}
• Don’t know (vol.) 4% {5%}

Among Independents

• Chris Christie 45% {52%} [52%] (45%)
• Jon Corzine 27% {30%} [25%] (21%)
• Chris Daggett (vol.) 15% {7%}
• Neither/other (vol.) 4% {6%}
• Don’t know (vol.) 9% {4%}

Now let me ask that question in a slightly different way… if the election were held today, who would you vote for in a race between Jon Corzine, the Democrat, Chris Christie, the Republican, and Chris Daggett, the independent?

• Chris Christie 41% {37%}
• Jon Corzine 39% {38%}
• Chris Daggett 14% {17%}
• Neither/other (vol.) 3% {2%}
• Don’t know (vol.) 3% {6%}

Among Independents

• Chris Christie 37% {45%}
• Chris Daggett 27% {23%}
• Jon Corzine 22% {24%}
• Neither/other (vol.) 0% {2%}
• Don’t know (vol.) 14% {6%}

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

• Chris Daggett 28% {16%} / 23% {7%} {+5%}
• Chris Christie 41% {35%} [38%] (34%) / 44% {42%} [35%] (25%) {-3%}
• Jon Corzine 39% {37%} [37%] (31%) / 54% {54%} [54%] (54%) {-15%}

Among Independents

• Chris Daggett 37% {23%} / 21% {6%} {+16%}
• Chris Christie 38% {40%} [34%] (38%) / 36% {40%} [28%] (17%) {+2%}
• Jon Corzine 25% {33%} [23%] (17%) / 68% {59%} [64%] (64%) {-43%}

Which candidate for New Jersey governor is better described by…?

Honest, trustworthy

• Jon Corzine 33% {31%} [31%] (24%)
• Chris Christie 32% {28%} [32%] (33%)

Understands the concerns of the average person

• Chris Christie 42% {36%} [43%] (40%)
• Jon Corzine 35% {34%} [30%] (28%)

Has the background and experience to be a good governor

• Jon Corzine 48% {45%} [45%] (42%)
• Chris Christie 33% {29%} [32%] (29%)

Regardless of which candidate you want to win, if you had to guess, who would you say is going to win the election for governor in November?

• Jon Corzine 55% {49%} [45%] (46%)
• Chris Christie 30% {37%} [41%] (38%)

Among Independents

• Chris Christie 39% {38%} [45%] (45%)
• Jon Corzine 38% {40%} [36%] (34%)

How would you rate the job Jon Corzine is doing as governor?

• Excellent 5% {3%} [3%] (2%)
• Good 25% {26%} [22%] (24%)
• Fair 33% {35%} [40%] (39%)
• Poor 36% {34%} [33%] (31%)

Among Independents

• Excellent 2% {4%} [2%] (2%)
• Good 18% {15%} [13%] (10%)
• Fair 31% {31%} [41%] (46%)
• Poor 48% {51%} [43%] (37%)

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Jon Corzine is doing as governor?

• Approve 37% {38%} [37%] (36%)
• Disapprove 52% {50%} [52%] (49%)

Among Independents

• Approve 25% {33%} [23%] (19%)
• Disapprove 66% {60%} [64%] (58%)

In general, do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?

• Approve 52% {52%}
• Disapprove 37% {35%}

Among Independents

• Approve 43% {37%}
• Disapprove 42% {42%}

Among Corzine Supporters

• Approve 84%
• Disapprove 9%

Among Christie Supporters

• Approve 19%
• Disapprove 69%

Among Daggett Supporters

• Approve 58%
• Disapprove 34%

The Fairleigh Dickinson University poll of 694 likely voters statewide was conducted by telephone from Oct. 22, 2009, through Oct. 28, 2009, and has a margin of error of +/- 4 percentage points.

Inside the numbers:

Chris Daggett, an independent candidate, increased his name recognition to 82% but wins few hearts or minds. Just 18% say they haven’t heard of him now, compared to 50% who a month ago said they did not know him. But even now 31% say they have no opinion of him, and 28% have a favorable view of him, while 23% have an unfavorable view.

When Daggett’s name is read in an interview along with Jon Corzine’s and Chris Christie’s names, he gets 14% of the vote, drawing slightly more Democrats than Republicans, while Christie edges Corzine in a statistical tie, 41%-39%. But when the name of another independent candidate is read—the obscure Gary Steele—Steele gets 3% of the vote, draws off slightly more Republicans than Democrats, and Corzine beats Christie 46%- 41%.