October 28, 2009

Hoffman ducks a debate

This little bit just in from NY-23. A debate was held tonight. Hoffman, the Conservative candidate refused to participate. The reason? He didn’t like the local media that was carrying the debate because it was too liberal.

Quote his spokesman:

“North Country Public Radio is the perfect venue to decide who is the most liberal candidate in the race,”

Now I’ve said about four times now that I have no dog in this fight, but is that a lame excuse or what? What is the difference between that and Obama picking a fight with Fox News?

Maybe the local GOP leaders had good valid reasons not to nominate this guy after all.

by @ 9:38 pm. Filed under 2009 Elections
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91 Responses to “Hoffman ducks a debate”

  1. MPC Says:

    Blah, this is why we don’t go for candidates like this. A mess all around. There’s a reason Scozzafava edged him out in that whole process.

  2. Adam Says:

    P*ssy.

  3. Adam Says:

    And this is the great principled conservative here. Afraid of a public radio station. When the going gets tough Hoffman cuts and runs.

    HEY NOW….

    *MAYBE* there is more to the Palin endorsement than I originally thought. It’s like they are soul mates. Or something.

  4. Chip Says:

    Folks, that’s because his opponent’s wife is in charge of moderating the debate. That sounds like a pretty good reason. He’ll participate in tomorrow’s.

    http://dumpdede.wordpress.com/2009/10/28/the-real-reason-hoffman-is-ducking-tomorrows-debate/

  5. MWS Says:

    First off, I loathe candidates ducking debates. I think it cheats voters of what they deserve (even though debates have generally devolved into a string of soundbites and scripted “gotcha’s”). That said, candidates who refuse them obviously duck them because they think they have more to lose than gain. Maybe they think they have a big lead. Maybe they think they have the momentum. Maybe they know they’ll get their arse handed to them. It varies.

    Bottom line, Hoffman did the wrong thing, but hopefully he did it for the right reason……

  6. MWS Says:

    “Folks, that’s because his opponent’s wife is in charge of moderating the debate. ”

    WTH??????

  7. Adam Says:

    So she’s on the board? So what?

    Is she even a moderator? And if she is, is she one of, what, three people?

  8. MWS Says:

    Adam,

    Okay, if the wife of a candidate was one of “only” three moderators that would still be a reason to duck a debate. Seriously, do you think it would be no big shakes if Michelle Obama got to ask 1/3 of the questions last year?

  9. Adam Says:

    Wait a minute now?

    OWENS WIFE *CONNECTED* TO MODERATOR?

    http://73wire.com/trail/2009/10/owens-wife-connected-to-debate-moderator/

    That’s it?

    She’s not even moderating the debate?

    W E A K.

  10. marK Says:

    The more I think about it, the stupider this becomes. Dede’s biggest stumble was her ducking those questions from that conservative reporter and the badly played dustup that followed.

    So what does Hoffman do? He ducks questions from a source he doesn’t want to answer.

    Well, I hope NY-23 likes to be represented by a Democrat.

  11. Adam Says:

    She’s not asking questions. She just happens to work for the PBS station.

    George Bush dealt with questions from Gwen Ifill.

  12. Richard Murray Says:

    There were several reasons Doug Hoffman wasn’t chosen. Not living in that district and not knowing the local issues are two biggies. Name recognition in the area is another. Yes, that’s a weenie thing to do, weasling out of a debate like that. I’m glad this seat is only good for one year.

    The biggest boon Doug Hoffman got in this race is being blessed with a horrendously bad GOP candidate. Were it not for that, he probably wouldn’t have pulled 40% in a 2-way race. As it sits, I think he wins this by 2%.

  13. Martha Says:

    The guy isn’t the sharpest tool in the shed.

    This just gets nuttier. And then the left gets to talk about how the Republicans are exploding.

  14. Adam Says:

    And anyway if Hoffman is so worried about Owens’ wife then why is Scozzafava (who already has been tagged as, shall we say, ‘easily spooked’) not afraid?

  15. Dave Says:

    This isn’t the first debate Hoffman has ducked, and the reason, of course, is that he doesn’t understand the local issues well enough to avoid making a fool of himself.

  16. MWS Says:

    Adam,

    Or perhaps Hoffman is just spooked by liberals, whereas Dede is spooked by conservatives…….

  17. Adam Says:

    Any man that easily spooked by liberals is no conservative ;-)

  18. Knickers in a twist. Says:

    I guess he’s also taking campaign advise from Palin.

    Sending The Dede some cash…

  19. MWS Says:

    Adam,

    Touché.

  20. Chip Says:

    Hoffman just needs to keep going of Hannity, Rush, Levin, Fox, and he’ll be fine.

  21. MWS Says:

    Chip,

    Probably so, but this does look a bit weak-kneed. And as Richard noted, this isn’t the first debate he ducked. I hope he wins, but this reflects poorly.

    Does anyone know when the debate was scheduled, if he ever accepted the invite, and if so, when he decided to duck?

  22. Martha Says:

    It’s starting to look like Palin and Pawlenty may have acted in haste. Chalk it up to Rookie mistakes.

  23. MWS Says:

    Martha,

    Better a conservative buffoon than a liberal one.

  24. MPC Says:

    Adam,

    “*MAYBE* there is more to the Palin endorsement than I originally thought. It’s like they are soul mates. Or something.”

    Heh, you know, I thought exactly the same thing ;)

    These conservative purist types sure have a persecution complex. I hope guys like Rubio can actually make the case for good principles playing a role in, not against, the Republican Party.

  25. Adam Says:

    I think Martha’s right.

    It may have been foolish for Palin and Co. to put their reputation on the line for THIS GUY.

    He looks like a weenie.

  26. MWS Says:

    Adam,

    What are you saying, that we could never vote for Steve Forbes or Pierre S. du Pont IV?

    Anyway, nobody put their reputation on the line for this guy. As we agreed in the other thread, two weeks from now, nobody cares. But I would still like to see the conservative win, even if he looks like a dweeb with bad teeth.

  27. ConservativeRepublican Says:

    I see some commonality: Palin doesn’t answer questions in a debate whenever she doesn’t like it. Hoffman doesn’t even agree to a debate whenever he doesn’t like the forum.
    What a pansy!! Some conservtive! And they say he knows nothing of the local issues….why was it that he was supposed to have been chosen again?

    does live there
    doesn’t know anything about the issues
    pansy butt!

  28. MWS Says:

    Adam,

    BTW, did you read this in your link?

    “But a Republican should adhere to certain minimum GOP principles. Scozzafava is just too far to the left too often.

    And not only on social matters, like same-sex marriage and abortion. In Albany, Scozzafava has been such a profligate tax-and-spender, she can almost make Speaker Sheldon Silver blush.

    With the backing of the ACORN-allied Working Families Party, she supports Big Labor’s favorite organizing bill — card-check — as well as the federal stimulus, opposed by every House Republican.”

  29. ConservativeRepublican Says:

    does not*

  30. Ariel Says:

    Wow, what a loser. Go Dede!

  31. MWS Says:

    Ariel,

    Good to “see” you. I’ve been meaning to ask…… the other day you had high hopes for Deed’s ad featuring Obama’s rhetoric.

    How did that work out?

  32. Gary Johnson 2012 Says:

    Stupid move.

  33. Tommy Boy Says:

    Hoffman and NY 23
    By Jonah Goldberg
    http://corner.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ZTA0MjQ3NmExNmMyOWJhNmJlNjk0M2NmYjFjNjQ3MzU=

    I haven’t said anything on the subject yet because I hadn’t really engaged in the whole thing. But it seems to me that for conservatives this is something of a no-brainer. I’ve said a million times that I’m a Republican by default because the GOP is the more conservative of the two major parties. If a sensible conservative can beat a liberal Republican than I see no reason to support the Republican out of some team mentality.

    William F. Buckley’s policy was always that he was for the most conservative candidate electable. This has always struck me as the most pithy and most sensible statement on these kinds of questions. Protest votes on ideal candidates are ultimately ill-advised and self-indulgent. Though it can be hard to accept the truth of it (take it from a Andre Marrou in ’92 man). I agree entirely that the GOP needs more moderates. It needs more everybody. But in NY 23 Hoffman can win. That means he’s not a protest vote, he’s a vote for the most conservative candidate electable.

    Vote for Doug Hoffman.

  34. Aron Goldman Says:

    Hoffman visits the Times
    http://www.watertowndailytimes.com/article/20091022/BLOGS09/910229992/BLOGS09

    John B. Johnson Jr. was clear in this morning’s editorial in our paper: The issues germane to the 23rd Congressional District are not being talked about because that discourse is getting drowned out by the cacophony from special interest groups outside the district.

    Mr. Hoffman, it appeared, had not taken the time to read the local opinion page before visiting.

    When asked about the rooftop highway that could connect Watertown to Plattsburgh, Mr. Hoffman said he was “open to reviewing and studying it.”

    When asked about winter navigation on the St. Lawrence Seaway, he took no position. When asked about widening and deeping the Seaway, he again said nothing.

    The atmosphere was tense, at times.

    Mr. Hoffman said at one point that if we were going to question him, that he needed to know in advance what we were going to ask him about.

    That’s not the way it works. Mr. Hoffman would likely find that out if he kept his commitment to the Clifton-Fine Development Corp.’s “meet-the-candidates” night tonight in Wanakena, instead of ditching them for an appearance on Glenn Beck’s television show.

    UPDATE: WWNY-TV is reporting that Mr. Hoffman’s appearance with Mr. Beck is off, but that he will “not attend the Wanakena event anyway because he would be doing national press interviews.”

    http://www.watertowndailytimes.com/article/20091022/BLOGS09/910229992/BLOGS09

  35. Tommy Boy Says:

    Probably not a smart move by the DNC considering the percentage of American adults, let alone registered voters, that consider Palin honest and trustworthy.

    DNC attacks Palin ‘lies’
    http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/1009/DNC_attacks_Palin_lies.html?showall

  36. Aron Goldman Says:

    in NY 23 Hoffman can win. That means he’s not a protest vote

    The only problem with that assertion is that there are no non-partisan polls that exist that show the Conservative Party candidate can win. If Siena’s poll, which is expected to be released over the weekend, shows Hoffman to continue trailing a distant third and thus unelectable, will Goldberg then derisively dismiss Hoffman’s self-indulgent presence in the race as an ill-advised protest, and come out in support of a much-needed moderate like Scozzafava?

  37. MWS Says:

    Aron,

    The NYP says that Dede supports card check, the stimulus, gay marriage, and abortion. They also called her a “profligate tax-and-spender.”

    How is that “moderate”?

  38. alaska jake Says:

    MWS. . . I campaigned for du Pont. That guy was way ahead of his time. du Pont, John Connally, Paul Tsongas (yes, a Dem), and Mitt Romney are the four campaigns I’m proudest to have been a part of.

  39. JayPe Says:

    “there are no non-partisan polls that exist that show the Conservative Party candidate can win”

    On that logic, in 2008 you wouldn’t vote for McCain because the polls showed he was going to lose to Obama – as in fact he did.

  40. MWS Says:

    alaska,

    Did you now? As I recall, Pierre was ringing the bell about Social Security 21 years ago.

    Maybe we should have elected him back then. Then again, does that mean we would have Pierre W du Pont V in 2000?

  41. MWS Says:

    alaska,

    I assume you’re familiar with this?

    http://www.opinionjournal.com/columnists/pdupont/archive/

  42. alaska jake Says:

    haha Pierre W.

    He knew what he was talking about w/r/t soc sec – privatizing and all that. He also proposed work-fare instead of welfare and fought to end government subsidies. I wish we did elect him.

  43. lkv Says:

    If anybody saw his interview it’s no surprise…Gingrich did say Hoffman didn’t know the issues of NY-23.

    Before endorsing Hoffman, didn’t Palin, Thompson, or Pawlenty even meet this guy? Or did they see an opening to move in with their 3rd party Movement without doing the necessary work…… Don’t people who endorse candidates usually interview the person. There must be some logical explanation to this.

    Maybe this is why Palin is down 6.1 on Intrade tonight.

  44. Aron Goldman Says:

    The NYP says that Dede supports card check, the stimulus, gay marriage, and abortion. How is that “moderate”?

    Matt,

    I was deliberately using Jonah Goldberg’s characterizations throughout #36.

    That said, I suspect a majority of self-described moderates agree with Scozzafava’s alleged stances on each of the aforementioned issues.

    BTW, FWIW, Scozzafava says she no longer supports the stimulus and has been critical of it as ineffective and a missed opportunity. Her spokesman also stated that she does not support the card check provision of the EFCA.

  45. alaska jake Says:

    I used to get the Wall Street Journal till I moved to AK. . .loved his column. I think he stopped writing around the time I left PA. . .hmmmmm, wonder if there’s a connection?

  46. MWS Says:

    Alaska,

    “I wish we did elect him.”

    The country would probably be in a lot better fiscal shape if he had. On the other hand, is there any reason to think that the massive Democrat majorities of 89-93 would have been at all cooperative? Anyway, he was something of a prophet.

  47. Aron Goldman Says:

    JayPe,

    The only reason Jonah Goldberg supports Hoffman, and not Scozzafava at this point, is because he asserts that Hoffman can win, when there isn’t a single non-partisan poll to substantiate that claim. The whole premise of his current lack of support for Scozzafava is predicated not in opposition to her more liberal positions, but in Hoffman’s alleged electability.

    Should Siena’s poll show Hoffman out of contention, it stands to reason that Goldberg would then adhere to Buckley’s policy and back Scozzafava over Owens.

  48. Tommy Boy Says:

    Aron,

    Nearly every source that has been quoted about this race in the past three days suggests a two-way race between Hoffman and Owens. The Siena pollster was only skeptical about Dede falling to 14% in the Shaftan poll, not the idea that Hoffman was leading.

    Of the three polls that we know are going to release polls of NY-23 in the next five days, I’d bet that PPP(D) is the one most likely to show Hoffman in the lead since they are the only non-online pollster to show Christie with a 4-point lead right now.

  49. alaska jake Says:

    MWS. . . One of the things that I liked about du Pont, and maybe it was just a Delaware thing, was that he worked extremely well with Dem-controlled legislatures in Newark. He managed to cut taxes and spending while working to create a very pro-business environment, specifically within the financial industry, all with a state house controlled by the other guys. Could that have translated to the national stage – who knows? But du Pont had at least as good a chance, and probably better, as Bush or anyone else running back then to accomplish some pretty good things, economically speaking anyway. I had very similar thoughts about Tsongas and his economic platform in ’92. I lived in Boston in ’92, and started early that campaign season. No one was more surprised than I was that I was an active volunteer on a Democratic campaign, but he was a great guy to meet personally and that was the most fun I ever had campaigning. When he dropped out I flirted with the Libertarian Party and even Perot, but eventually campaigned for Bush’s losing race.

    (Sorry to hijack a thread with fond campaign memories.)

  50. Right Says:

    Obama is full of sh!t. Here’s Associated Press today:
    Stimulus jobs overstated by thousands

    WASHINGTON – A Colorado company said it created 4,231 jobs with the help of President Barack Obama’s economic recovery plan. The real number: fewer than 1,000.
    A child care center in Florida said it saved 129 jobs with the help of stimulus money. Instead, it gave pay raises to its existing employees.
    Elsewhere in the U.S., some jobs credited to the stimulus program were counted two, three, four or even more times.
    The government has overstated by thousands the number of jobs it has created or saved with federal contracts under the president’s $787 billion recovery program, according to an Associated Press review of data released in the program’s first progress report.
    The discrepancy raises questions about the reliability of a key benchmark the administration uses to gauge the success of the stimulus. The errors could be magnified Friday when a much larger round of reports is released. It is expected to show hundreds of thousands of jobs repairing public housing, building schools, repaving highways and keeping teachers on local payrolls.

    http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20091029/ap_on_bi_ge/us_stimulus_jobs;_ylt=Atrahp9UrN1bJHwXVV7TN9Ls.6F4;_ylu=X3oDMTJqbGpzcTVtBGFzc2V0A2FwLzIwMDkxMDI5L3VzX3N0aW11bHVzX2pvYnMEY3BvcwM0BHBvcwM0BHNlYwN5bl90b3Bfc3RvcmllcwRzbGsDYXBpbXBhY3RzdGlt

  51. Right Says:

    If Owens win, he gets no more than 40% of the vote. The GOP can wipe hands clean off that lost no matter where Dede finishes. They can argue that the 60%+ plus vote against the Democrat is in-line with the anti-Democrat nature of the district. They can blame Hoffman and the Tea Party folks for splitting the party and causing a lost to the Dems. They can blame Dede and local GOP for picking her and her for sucking @ss in general. They might absorb some arrows, but at the end, the other races in the country (which I think we’ll clean up) will determine whether the circular firing squad starts the shooting. Biggest loser? Splitters. Lefties found out that the future isn’t with the Green Party. They infected the Democrats and we’re suffering from it. I support Hoffman, but I will COMPROMISE and support a numerically strong opposition to destroy Obama and the Democrats.

  52. Tommy Boy Says:

    Interesting poll from Kellyanne Conway about women:

    http://www.iwf.org/files/8811f929032d3a1395d34efc6af5b701.pdf

  53. Heath Says:

    I’m a proud conservative but gee we know how to pick em!

  54. Aron Goldman Says:

    NJ PRE-ELECTION TEA PARTY RALLY
    Sunday, November 1, 2009, 11:30 AM to 2:00 PM
    Ford Mansion (George Washington’s winter HQ Dec 1779 – May 1780)
    30 Washington Place Morristown, NJ
    Bring your family, your friends, your signs!
    Help defeat tax-and-spend Corzine and save NJ from economic ruin.
    Keynote Speakers: Joe Wilson, Steve Lonegan, Kevin McCullough and Michael Johns
    http://njteaparty.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=61&Itemid=1&Itemid=7

  55. Aron Goldman Says:

    Hmmm: Hoffman ducks debate with Scozzafava and Owens
    by Allahpundit
    http://hotair.com/archives/2009/10/28/hmmm-hoffman-ducks-debate-with-scozzafava-and-owens/

    Really? He was wary of taking questions from an adversarial outlet? That sounds like Obama’s argument against Fox News. Or … was he worried that he’d be asked more questions about local issues that he couldn’t answer, so he decided to minimize the risk by skipping tonight’s debate and focusing on tomorrow’s instead? I’d still vote for him over Scozzafava but I’m starting to see why party bosses might have felt uncomfortable nominating him instead of her.

  56. Doug Forrester Says:

    #49 As a former resident of Delaware I’ll just point out the legislature is in Dover not Newark.

    Delaware used to have a pretty strong good government ethic built around the use of casinos for revenue, being the preferred corporate venue and no income/sales taxes.

    Much of the good government ethic has been lost as the state has filled with Democrats from Pennsylvania, NJ and the Western Shore of Maryland.

  57. Aron Goldman Says:

    NY-23 Congressional Candidates Debate in Plattsburgh (complete audio)
    This evening, two of the three candidates for New York’s 23rd congressional district House seat took part in a public forum in Plattsburgh, hosted by SUNY Plattsburgh’s Chapter of United University Professions and its Student Association, and by the League of Women Voters of the Plattsburgh Area. The Democratic and Republican candidates, Bill Owens and Dede Scozzafava, participated. Conservative candidate Doug Hoffman declined. NCPR’s Brian Mann and Lindsey Lyons, president of the Student Association were co-moderators.
    http://www.northcountrypublicradio.org/news/audio/news091028g.m3u

  58. Aron Goldman Says:

    Scozzafava Media Release
    http://www.newzjunky.com/news/1028scozzafava_debate.htm

    PLATTSBURGH, N.Y., October 28, 2009 — Today, Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava handily defeated Democratic trial lawyer Bill Owens during a debate for 23rd Congressional District candidates at the Giltz Auditorium at SUNY Plattsburgh. Owens demonstrated that he’s completely out of touch with the issues important to voters in North Country, reinforcing why he’s wrong on the economy, wrong on healthcare, and wrong on the War in Afghanistan. Scozzafava’s third-party rival Doug Hoffman refused to even show up to the debate as questions continue to mount over whether he will heed calls by top GOP leaders to withdraw from the race and endorse Dede Scozzafava.

    “Watching Bill Owens on stage tonight made it abundantly clear why he’s been dodging debates for the past few months, and why Governor Paterson is supporting his campaign,” said Matt Burns, spokesman for Dede for Congress. “Owens is wrong on the economy, wrong on healthcare, wrong on Afghanistan, and he’s clueless about issues important to residents of Upstate New York – but what do you expect from a $750,000 a year lawyer? Owens also failed to account for the 2,000 jobs which he claimed to create for this area. Above all, Owens demonstrated that he’s unfit to serve this community in our nation’s capitol. It’s a disservice to voters that tonight’s debate – only six days before the election – is the first of just two occasions where Owens will directly address questions by the people of Upstate New York.”

    “It’s deeply troubling that Doug Hoffman failed to show up to tonight’s debate, especially since he was only minutes away from the SUNY Plattsburgh campus” said Assemblywoman Janet Duprey. “With only six days left until the election, voters know absolutely nothing about Doug Hoffman other than what we’ve seen on 30-second television ads produced by special interest groups in Washington, DC. It’s high time that Doug Hoffman comes out of hiding and starts answering questions about issues that matter most to voters of the 23rd Congressional District. Would Doug Hoffman cut funding for Fort Drum? Will Hoffman explain his flip-flopping on earmarks? Will Doug Hoffman heed the calls of GOP leaders to withdraw from the race and endorse Republican nominee Dede Scozzafava?”

  59. Anonymous Says:

    Romney not get the nominee in NY-23. Palin and Pawlenty endorse Hoffman. Hoffman get nominee in 2012. He true conservative. Romney, Palin, and Pawlenty are done.

  60. MWS Says:

    Anonymous,

    You’re predicting that Hoffman will be our Presidential nominee in 2012 because Palin and Pawlenty (who are “done”) endorsed him?

    BTW, I agree Romney has no chance of getting the nomination in NY-23.

  61. Knickers in a twist. Says:

    Anon. Based on what? LOL. You always tickle my funnybone!

  62. Knickers in a twist. Says:

    MWS. I agree with you on that as well! Romney will NOT be the GOP Nominee in upstate NY for NY-23!

  63. MarkG Says:

    #59: So NY-23 holds the keys to the White House? Who knew?

  64. marK Says:

    Let me chime my “Me-too” in here and completely agree that Romney will not get the nominee in NY-23.

  65. zebra Says:

    I cannot believe how quickly the people on this site accept the “planted axiom” that skipping a debate is some evidence of a character flaw or bad strategy. What difference does it make? The people who are so brain dead that they are even thinking of picking one of the two leftists have already decided. No debate is going to change anyone’s mind. I think the debates are little more than “bread and circuses” for political junkies. How many of you can honestly say that a poor performance by Reagan in 1984 (and he turned in a lousy one) assisted Mondale. In saner times, when these ridiculous debates had not yet become so much a part of “pop culture” (as opposed to serious evaluation of the issues),Nixon and Johnson both eschewed debates in 1964 and 1972 en route to landslide victories. Reagan might well have done the same in 1984.

  66. marK Says:

    zebra,

    If this debate was held six months ago when hardly anyone was paying attention, I would be inclined to agree with you. But instead of six months before the election, this debate was six days before the election. The people giving serious thought to voting are now paying close attention. The national attention this election has generated has only served to heighten interest. You better believe ducking a debate under these circumstances has an effect upon the outcome.

  67. OHIO JOE Says:

    “Let me chime my “Me-too” in here and completely agree that Romney will not get the nominee in NY-23.
    ” Haha, well, I admire you MarK (and company) for being able to keep a sense of humor through this whole awful mess.

    Back to the issue at hand (sort of,) rightly or wrongly skipping debates are nothing new and under the circumstances, the Dedeites are making a mountain out of a mo-hill. Front-runners generally do not want debates and the fact that Queen Dede is so desperate to debate all of a sudden suggests that her internal polling is not all the different from the public polling.

  68. marK Says:

    OHIO,

    There are a bazillion ways to duck a debate. The excuse he gave was lame. Which, in turn, allowed the Dedeites to make a mountain out of a molehill. That was bad strategy. You don’t give your opponent an opening like that a scant six days before an election.

  69. marK Says:

    As I alluded to in #10, I am fearful that this Hoffman stumble will only serve to split the Republican vote more evenly and assure Owens a victory.

    Dede is no great shucks, but Hoffman isn’t exactly lighting my fire either, especially after this last stunt.

    Oh well, we can take consolation in the fact that (a)they will only hold the office for a year, and (b)one more Democrat in the House isn’t going to make a great deal of difference.

  70. MWS Says:

    zebra,

    While I think debates have devolved into mostly 60 second soundbites and canned “gotcha” moments, occasionally something of substance is said, and sometimes, candidates reveal something of their quality (intentionally or not). I think candidates OWE the voters a debate, no matter how much they leading.

    BTW, I saw some of Rick Warren’s debate/interview with McCain and Obama. Now THAT guy knows how to do it. He asked questions that generally couldn’t be rehearsed ahead of time, and so we got (I think) a better feel for the candidates’ actual thinking.

    This was the one where Obama infamously snarked that when human rights begin in a person’s life is “above his pay grade.”

  71. MWS Says:

    marK,

    Yeah, I’ve got to think that refusing to show on the debate (and giving such a lame and self-serving excuse) probably cost Hoffman some votes.

  72. Aron Goldman Says:

    Economy Expands 3.5 Percent in Third Quarter, Biggest Growth in 2 Years
    The much-awaited turnaround ended the streak of four straight quarters of contracting economic activity, the first time that’s happened on records dating to 1947.
    http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2009/10/29/economy-grew-percent-quarter/

  73. Aron Goldman Says:

    The Audacity to Win: How They Did It
    By David Plouffe
    http://www.time.com/time/printout/0,8816,1932963,00.html

    Hurricane Sarah

    We always knew this day was going to be a pain in the ass. Coming right off the exhaustion and exhilaration of our convention week and VP pick, we would have to jump right in and deal with theirs. But [Sarah] Palin was a bolt of lightning, a true surprise. She was such a long shot, I didn’t even have her research file on my computer, as I did for the likely McCain picks. I started Googling her, refreshing my memory while I waited for our research to be sent.

    Her story was original: small-town mayor takes on the Establishment and wins a governor’s race; she was an avid hunter, sportswoman and athlete, and her husband was a champion snowmobiler; she had just given birth to a child with Down syndrome. A profile out of a novel, I thought.

    But here she was, joining our real-life drama. And given her life story, coupled with the surprise nature of her selection, her entrance to the race would be nothing short of a phenomenon. But I also thought it was a downright bizarre, ill-considered and deeply puzzling choice. The one thing every voter knew about John McCain’s campaign at this point was that it had been shouting from the rooftops that Barack Obama lacked the experience to be President.

    With the Palin pick, he had completely undermined his core argument against us. Worse yet for McCain, he would look inherently political in doing so. His strength — and the threat he posed to us — was rooted in the fact that many independent voters believed in his maverick reputation and believed he did not make his decisions by prioritizing politics over what was right. I guessed people would view this choice more as a political stunt than a sound, reasoned call.

    On our 6:00 a.m. conference call, [campaign adviser] Anita Dunn, who had worked against Palin in Alaska in the 2006 governor’s race, warned us that she was a formidable political talent — clearly not up to this moment, she assured us, but bound to be a compelling player and a real headliner in the weeks ahead. (Read about where Sarah Palin is going next.)

    “All of you on this call should watch video of her debates and speeches,” Dunn counseled. “The substance is thin, but she’s a very able performer. And her story is out of Hollywood. She’ll be a phenomenon for a while.”

    Our strategy with the other potential picks would’ve been to start by saying that choice X subscribed to the same failed George Bush policies as John McCain; all they were doing was doubling down on the same out-of-touch economic policies that had hurt American families. We should have gone the same way with Palin. But McCain had been haranguing us for months about experience, and we were incredulous that he had picked someone with zero foreign policy experience who had been a governor for less time than Obama had been a Senator. Galled by the hypocrisy, we moved in a more aggressive direction.

    We decided to call McCain on the experience card directly. The value was in making him look political — essentially, calling him full of shit — and we sent out a release making that clear. “Today, John McCain put the former mayor of a town of 9,000 with zero foreign policy experience a heartbeat away from the presidency,” it read. “Governor Palin shares John McCain’s commitment to overturning Roe v. Wade, the agenda of Big Oil and continuing George Bush’s failed economic policies — that’s not the change we need; it’s just more of the same.”

    Our statement immediately received an enormous amount of attention because it went right at her experience. The press clearly sensed heat and was eager to help drive the fight. Seeing the reaction, I began to think perhaps we had misfired. Obama clearly thought so. He called me from the air. “Listen, I just told this to Axelrod and [communications director Robert] Gibbs,” he began. “I understand the argument you guys were trying to make. And maybe we should make it someday. But not today. We shouldn’t have put out the first part of that statement. I want to put out another statement that simply welcomes her to the race, and I’ll call her and congratulate her when I land.” (Read a two-minute bio of Robert Gibbs.)

    I didn’t disagree but thought backtracking would only add to the sense in the press that perhaps Palin was a brilliant game-changing pick that had scrambled the race. Even the famously disciplined Obama campaign can’t get its story straight — this would be the blowback. “Look,” I told him, “simply say that you’re adding your own personal voice, one principal to another.” He acknowledged that he understood and would watch his words. “We’ll send out a personal statement from you and Biden,” I said, “but it’s important you not suggest we misfired on the original statement. Don’t throw the campaign under the bus.”

    But when he took a few questions from the press later that day, he proceeded to drive the bus right over us. “I think that, you know, campaigns start getting these hair triggers, and the statement that Joe and I put out reflects our sentiments,” he said. Great, I thought, already imagining the heat we’d take on this. But all in all, I felt solid about our instincts. Despite our clumsiness, I still thought we had nailed, in the predawn hours, what this pick would mean over time.

    Obama and I had a long talk late that afternoon to evaluate Palin. “I just don’t understand how this ends up working out for McCain,” he said. “In the long term, I mean. The short term will be good for them. But when voters step back and analyze how he made this decision, I think he’s going to be in big trouble. You just can’t wing something like this — it’s too important.”

    “I think we just need to sit back and play our game,” said Obama. “It actually won’t be bad to be off-Broadway for a few days. We should just leave her out of the equation. This is a race between John McCain and me. To the extent we talk about Palin, I think it should be about the differences in our selection processes — it illuminates differences in how we’d make decisions in the White House.”

  74. MWS Says:

    Aron,

    Unfortunately, that is probably a one time shot. With housing values bottoming, along with inventories, the GDP number is getting a more or less one time shot.

  75. Tommy Boy Says:

    Daily Kos/Research 2K Poll
    http://politicalwire.com/archives/2009/10/29/very_tight_in_ny-23.html

    Owens 33
    HOffman 32
    Dede 21

  76. Tommy Boy Says:

    The last Kos poll showed it

    Owens 35
    Dede 30
    Hoffman 23

    So there has been a ton of movement since last week.

  77. Jonathan Says:

    #75:

    It’s odd, but it seems that Scozzafava has taken on the role of the 3rd party candidate while Hoffman is taking over the GOP’s turf. 3rd party or perceived 3rd party candidates fade as election day gets closer. Given all the recent polling trends, I expect Scozzafava to fade even more over the weeekend.

    Hoffman has the momentum. I’d say he has a 40%-60% chance of winning the race now.

  78. Tommy Boy Says:

    http://twitter.com/markos/status/5261553146

    “NJ-Gov results: a nail biter to the end. Results coming soon. This one will hinge on turnout.”

  79. Right Says:

    How can Hoffman be ahead when he doesn’t show up at this particular debate?

    /concern troll

  80. OHIO JOE Says:

    “How can Hoffman be ahead when he doesn’t show up at this particular debate?” Not many people care about the silly debate, it is about as lame as the Dedeite making hay about the fact that Mr. Hoffman does not live in the district. For all his supposed weaknesses, Mr. Hoffman is essentially right on the issues and making hay over the debate and demanding that Mr. Hoffman prove that he was not born in Kenya are to a degree silly desperate stunts.

  81. Aron Goldman Says:

    $arah to Iowa: $how Me the Money!
    Iowa Republicans wince at Palin fee
    http://dyn.politico.com/printstory.cfm?uuid=9E7BBB3F-18FE-70B2-A8469B60F6C99BFF

    A conservative Iowa group’s effort to lure Sarah Palin to its banquet next month has had an unintended effect: Rather than exciting conservatives about the prospect of a visit from the former Alaska governor, the group’s plan to raise a six-figure sum to bring her to the state has GOP activists recoiling at the thought of paying to land a politician’s speaking appearance.

    The Iowa Family Policy Center’s effort to cobble together $100,000 for Palin would represent a striking departure from customary practice in the first-in-the-nation state, these Republicans say, noting that a generation of White House hopefuls has paid their own way to boost their party and presidential ambitions.

    But representatives from other Iowa-based political advocacy groups said they would never consider shelling out money for what many politicians see as a privilege: the opportunity to speak to a room full of sure-fire caucus-goers who often serve as precinct captains and can be instrumental to a presidential candidate’s success.

    “If somebody tells me they want me to pay an appearance fee, it tells me they’re not very serious about running for president,” said Ed Failor, Jr., president of Iowans for Tax Relief and an influential GOP insider.

    “I found it really, really odd,” Failor said.

    He noted that his group had not and never would pay for a politician to speak—pointing out the obvious in-kind contribution any potential presidential hopeful receives by appearing in the state that kicks off the presidential nominating process.

    “They come and show up here because they want to be relevant in Iowa,” he said.

    Steve Scheffler, the president of the Iowa Christian Alliance and a longtime GOP activist, said his organization would also never ante up.

    “We certainly wouldn’t do it, even if we had the money,” Scheffler said, adding that he wanted to keep his group “impartial” in the caucus process and that paying money to one prospective candidate could raise questions about such neutrality.

    Tim Albrecht, spokesman for the conservative, Iowa-based American Future Fund, said his group “has a policy not to pay speakers to come to Iowa,” and, like Failor, hinted at what those guests get in return.

    “We are proud to host conservative leaders from across the country, providing them an audience across the state and nation to share their conservative vision,” Albrecht said.

    Like the other Iowa political hands, he could not recall a single instance where a potential candidate had been paid to speak.

    But, money or not, it seems unlikely that Palin will appear for the event.

    “This is one of more than a thousand requests for the governor’s time,” said Palin spokeswoman Meg Stapleton. “This particular invitation arrived late last week. It is under consideration, as so many are, but will be incredibly difficult to attend with her tightly-scheduled book tour underway at that point.”

  82. MWS Says:

    “The Iowa Family Policy Center’s effort to cobble together $100,000 for Palin would represent a striking departure from customary practice in the first-in-the-nation state, these Republicans say, noting that a generation of White House hopefuls has paid their own way to boost their party and presidential ambitions.”

    That would be a strong sign that she is a) not running for President or b) is incredibly short sighted.

  83. Aron Goldman Says:

    NY-23: Gaming it out
    by Kos
    http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2009/10/29/798185/-NY-23:-Gaming-it-out

    I wish nothing but ill will for all candidates in this race. But the GOP is full of idiots, and they’ve run strong with it, making my “endorsement” part of their anti-Scozzafava narrative. And now we’re in a situation in which the conservative candidate Doug Hoffman has a real chance of performing better than the Republican.

    With the situation on the ground having changed, the calculus has also changed.

    It’s clear now that Scozzafava, were she victorious next week, would have to turn hard-right to survive the inevitable primary challenge next year. In fact, it’s hard to see how she doesn’t lose a 2010 primary to Hoffman. She’s pretty much toast — if not next week, then next year. So the chances of being a Collins/Snowe-type Republican are non-existent. Unlike what I wrote a month ago, there’s no longer any upside to her winning.

    I’ll slightly disagree with Jerome on a Hoffman victory — it would definitely fire up the teabagger Right and give them momentum. But I part with Jerome in thinking that’s necessarily a bad thing. While back in 2002-2007 we were pushing the Democratic party to the mainstream on progressive issues (Iraq, health care, etc), the teabagger Right is running on an unpopular agenda. There is zero polling available to suggest that Hoffman-style politicians will perform any better at the ballot box than establishment Republicans. Yet a successful Hoffman effort would encourage more such challenges. Third-party efforts would be fantastic (and Beck is talking about going this route), splitting the Right the way that Nader and the Greens cost us seats in the early 2000s. But even successful primary efforts would help us gain unlikely seats against Republicans too conservative for their districts, like we did in House races in Idaho and Maryland in 2008 (among other places).

    But if Hoffman loses, we get to mock the teabaggers. That may be worth more than all the stuff above, and if Hoffman loses to Owens, we’ll get to thank the teabaggers for gifting us a seat while the media fixates on the “GOP civil war” that cost them a seat they’ve held since the 1800s.

    And whether Owens is a good or bad Democrat (likely the latter), holding it in 2010 will be tough. Hoffman will likely be back next year, and should win a proper GOP primary (where the teabaggers will hold outsized influence). And without the benefits of a split Right, holding this seat gets a lot tougher.

    So I’m no longer rooting for a Scozzafava victory. That gets us nothing. And I’m not rooting for a Hoffman victory, and I’m certainly not rooting for Owens because I’m over Lieberdems.

    I’ll leave it to others to try and squeeze out my “endorsement” from that steaming pile of dog shit.

    But I’m rather pleased I’ve been used to attack Scozzafava by the likes of Club for Growth and Glenn Beck. Such mischief is almost Rovian! So in that vein, I’m ready to make some new endorsements. I endorse Mark Kirk in Illinois, Rob Simmons in Connecticut, and Charlie Crist in Florida. In fact, if you are the type of Republican than can actually win against Democratic opposition (in other words, not batshit insane), I “endorse” you. Oh, and I also “endorse” David Vitter, even though he is batshit insane, because he’s hilarious.

  84. Adam Says:

    I TOLD you that Kos was just being cute…

    Also,

    Stu Rothenberg:

    In fact, Democrats might be better off were Hoffman to win the special election in New York. Yes, that outcome would prevent Democrats from expanding their House majority, but a Hoffman win might embolden the Club for Growth and encourage conservatives to take on other Republicans who aren’t entirely pure. And encouraging a bigger GOP civil war is something that could help Democrats win more than a single additional seat in the House.

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2009/10/29/_one_down_two_to_go_the_outlook_for_the_2009_elections_98926.html

  85. Adam Says:

    And by “you” I mean anyone (and there were a few) that were touting the Kos endorsement as reason not to support Scozzafava.

  86. MWS Says:

    Adam,

    None of this had to happen. If Bush hadn’t run up massive deficits- pushing us to the brink right before the completely insane spenders took over- the GOP wouldn’t be in this mess.

  87. Richard Murray Says:

    #84 “I TOLD you that Kos was just being cute…”

    Um, no. Read the article again. He’s indicating she’s pretty far to the left (which she is, regardless of her promises not to be). In fact, he considered her to be “a Collins/Snowe-type Republican,” and coupled with the endorsements of other hard-left orgs, she seems to accurately be called a liberal to me. Protest all you want about her promising to not vote liberal on several issues, I don’t take a politician’s promises too seriously (remember all the wonderful promises of Pres Obama?). I’m more interested in her history, and it’s hard left (excepting guns).

  88. Adam Says:

    87,

    Um Yes. A Collins/Snowe Republican is STILL to the right of a blue dog.

    My argument all along was that Kos was insincere in his “endorsement” (which even he used quotes as a way to conjure up an eye roll).

  89. Right Says:

    Quit hyperventilating. The result won’t be a ‘civil war’, rather the GOP and CFG will come to a compromise.

  90. Richard Murray Says:

    #88 “Um Yes. A Collins/Snowe Republican is STILL to the right of a blue dog.”

    No, a blue dog isn’t, but I could still prefer a Snowe-esque Republican to a blue dog Dem for the vote on leadership. In this case, I started with his assertion, then I added other factors (ACORN and NYSUT endorsements). Add it together, and I don’t see a moderate, but a liberal on every issue other than guns. She CLAIMS she won’t vote liberal on a series of issues, and if I felt I could trust her to do as she said, I’d consider supporting her. You see, my problem isn’t one or two issues, but pretty much all of them (except guns). Can you, or anyone else, show where her voting record is moderate, as opposed to liberal? Her promise, and the promise of Spkr Gingrich, means squat to me. I want a reason to BELIEVE what she says, because her list of supporters and voting record (from what little I know of it) contradicts her words.

  91. Alex Knepper Says:

    Oh my. How embarrassing.

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