Uruguay may not get a lot of coverage in the blogs or the MSM, but today that country is front and center in the Latin American war between sane government and Hugo Chavez leftism. The question is whether voters in today’s election decide to draw a line and say “no more” to the forces of Chavismo.
Today, Uruguay votes on how to move forward after the presidency of Tabaré Vázquez- a leftist who moved that nation closer to Chavez and his friends, but took a more moderate approach more remenicent to Brazil’s President Lula than Crazy Hugo. However, Vázquez’s “Broad Front” coalition has veered toward radicalism this year by nominating José “el Pepe” Mujica as their presidential candidate.
The 74 year-old El Pepe may look like a giant teddy bear now – but he got his start back in the 60s as a commander in the Tupamaro guerilla rebellion. The Tupamaros wanted to stage a Cuban-style revolution in Urugay – and they were fond of bank robberies, assassinations, and kidnapping British Ambassadors. In fact, the fight against the Tupamaros was the primary excuses used by the military for seizing power in 1973 and launching a brutal regime of terror that enslaved the country for a decade. So, while I blame the military for the brutality of that time, I blame the bloodthirsty Tupamaros for giving them the cover they needed to take over.
So – needless to say - I’m perplexed as to why a man who helped lead these maniacs is now poised to become president. Vázquez may have had the support of the radical ex-Tupamaros and put a few of them in his government, but he wasn’t one of them - El Pepe is, and I would expect him to be far closer to the Chavez orbit. So, the question is whether Uraguayans will draw a line in the sand and say that this is too much.
They might, or they might not.
Right now, Mujica is well ahead of his rivals in the polls with 45.5% of the vote, but he needs 50% today to avoid a runoff against former president Luis Alberto Lacalle of the National Party, who implemented a staunch free-market program during his 1990-1995 term. Some have speculated that Lacalle could win a runoff with the support of the third place Colorado Party (which historically ran the country’s more authoritarian governments, and hence is unlikely to support Mujica) and possibly help from the more centrist elements of the “Broad Front” who can’t stomach El Pepe.
Either way, it’s going to be close, but Mujica’s best shot at power is to get an outright majority today and avoid a runoff. If he is denied that mandate, then we have our first clue that the Uraguayans will halt the advance of Chavismo into South America’s more prosperous “southern cone”.
Here’s hoping that El Pepe can be stopped.
October 25th, 2009 at 3:37 pm
You are one sharp cookie on international affairs Adam Brickley, it is funny that we now have to rely on a small country like Uruguay to be one of the few anti-Communist countries remaining in our Western Hemisphere. Fortunately, Chile appears to be moving back to the Right.
October 25th, 2009 at 3:43 pm
Brazil is right-ish…historically speaking Ohio Joe. I just hope Lula ain’t too crazy.
October 25th, 2009 at 3:48 pm
Of course Brazil is Right historically, but so were a lot of countries in our hemisphere that are now much to the Left of Center. Yes Lula may not be to crazy, but he is on the wrong side in Honduras, thus Brazil cannot be totally trusted anymore.
October 25th, 2009 at 4:02 pm
3 – You are right, but Brazil also has presidential elections coming up soon as well (I think next year) and I’ve seen polls showing Lula’s party getting blown out by the conservatives. Uruguay is a bit different in that they already have a Lula type leftists and are moving futher with Mujica. Though, in fairness to Mujica, I would point out that he has pledged to leave many economic issues to his centrist vice-presdential candidate, Finance Minister Danilo Astori. So, maybe he won’t go as far as we think – I’m just not that keen on handing countries to ex-guerilla commanders.
BTW – the best international affairs clearing house on the net (at least in terms of elections) is the Angus-Reid Global Monitor at http://www.angus-reid.com. They’re a global polling firm so they have their finger on the pulse EVERYWHERE and post 2 or three polls a day, if not more. That’s how I found out about the Uruguay race.
October 25th, 2009 at 5:10 pm
The trend in Latin America was extremely positive until the last several years. Eternal vigilance is the price of liberty, and liberty loving Latins let down their guard. Maybe they were emulating our example.
October 25th, 2009 at 6:19 pm
Latin America has moved much more to the right than it ever was back in Reagan’s day, though. Back then it was right wing regimes generally run by the military in most countries, many of whom had strong affiliations with the US. That left a bad taste for most people as to American foreign policy and capitalism (which tended to mean “The Americans get to own our country”). Recently, though, Chavez himself has tons of domestic dissent in Venezuela, Morales in Bolivia nearly had the eastern provinces of his country secede, Honduras booted out their leftist President (though our own socialist-roader didn’t much like that one), so the trend is away from that road. Socialism internationally is a thoroughly discredited system, and Latin America is no different.
What is emerging in Latin America is a natural left/right divide in a democratic system. If the leftists start to run the country into the ground, the right will get voted in, and vice versa. One of the greatest blessings of the emergence of democracy is that despite the initial dominance of center-left figures like Lula in Brazil and the Kirchners in Argentina, center-right parties have emerged as the real alternative and the Latin American left has by and large abandoned socialism. Lula and the Kirchners won their popularity by ripping a page right out of Reagan’s book for free-market reforms.
I wouldn’t worry too much about this in Uruguay. It’s just another ex socialist having to bow to the free market in order to get elected. And counter to this, come election time in Argentina it’s almost certain that the center-left party gets booted, as they’ve been losing ground to the center-right block all year now in local elections. Turns out folks down there don’t like heavy-handed backdoor tax schemes or dangerous money policy either
October 25th, 2009 at 7:50 pm
According to exit polling, the race will indeed go to a runoff.
http://www.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idUSTRE59O0RQ20091025
October 25th, 2009 at 9:30 pm
Are you guys all international political junkies?
October 25th, 2009 at 10:26 pm
[...] update my post from earlier, the results of tonight’s Uruguayan presidential election are as follows: Jose [...]
October 25th, 2009 at 11:12 pm
8 – Not everyone here – but probably everyone here that bothers to comment on a Uruguay post is a bit of an international junkie – i sure am!
October 26th, 2009 at 1:30 am
I follow Latin American politics fairly well. I haven’t lived outside of the Americas, though, so anything elsewhere is beyond me. Especially Asian politics, which is quite a cultural development and my lack of understanding of Asian culture bars me from understanding.
October 26th, 2009 at 12:56 pm
As a uruguayan, I fail to see the connection between Mujica and Chavez. The whole left in Uruguay has distanced itself repeatedly from Chavez in both action and style of governing, instead expressing an affinity towards Lula and the Chilean socialists. Most importantly, unlike Chavez, Mujica is the candidate a major, strong and stable political party, the Frente Amplio, that has been governing for four years.
November 30th, 2009 at 10:08 pm
[...] a runoff, taking 51% of the vote against 44% for free-market former president Luis Alberto Lacalle. I wrote about Mujica during the first round of these elections, and I stand by my position. Yes, he says he will model [...]