There is growing pressure upon Republican Dede Scozzafava to withdraw from her Nov. 3 election in New York’s 23rd Congressional District. Soon enough, attention will turn to Rep. Pete Sessions and the National Republican Congressional Committee to officially withdraw their support.
Scozzafava is not going to win. The remaining question will be whether DC-based Republicans caused a Democrat to win over viable Conservative nominee Doug Hoffman. Of the following scenarios, I only see the first one helping the future fundraising efforts of the NRCC, NRSC, and RNC:
There’s not undoing the NRCC’s lost opportunities and resources from the past several months. But there is an opportunity to minimize the impact of those errors and move forward.
Dede Scozzafava may cut her losses and withdraw, but this can’t be assumed about a campaign that lied to the press about another member of the press. Which turns us back to the NRCC.
Consider:
- National Review’s Jim Geraghty: ”When a candidate commits a crime, the usual bonds of loyalty that a party requires are severed… In New York, Dede Scozzafava — or, more specifically, her husband — has, at least on the face of events, filed a false police report when he called the cops on Weekly Standard reporter John McCormack.”
- Doug Hoffman reportedly raised $116,000 — YESTERDAY, alone.
- Ramesh Ponnuru: ”Whoever wins the race, Hoffman will get more votes than Scozzafava. If Owens wins, in other words, it will be Scozzafava who turned out to be the ‘spoiler.’”
- RedState Directors: ”Dede Scozzafava Should Withdraw.”
- Matt Lewis reports, “Steve Forbes has endorsed Doug Hoffman for Congress (NY-23).”
- The Atlantic’s Marc Ambinder reports, “Expect Tim Pawlenty to endorse D. Hoffman in NY23 soon.”
- Ken Blackwell endorsed Doug Hoffman.
- Wall Street Journal editorial: ”Republicans try to lose a House seat.”
- Rasmussen: ”Just 15% of Republicans who plan to vote in 2012 state primaries say the party’s representatives in Congress have done a good job of representing Republican values.”
- Club for Growth ran this cartoon by Brett Noel (re-published with permission):
______________________________________________________________
Benjamin Hodge publishes the Web site KansasProgress.com, based in Johnson County, KS, in the Greater Kansas City area. Hodge is a delegate to the Kansas GOP and a former state representative. You can join Hodge’s efforts on Facebook, through his personal Web site, on Twitter, and through his PAC.
October 23rd, 2009 at 5:15 pm
Don’t think we Libertarians haven’t taken notice of NY CD 23.
The Conservative Party, Doug Hoffman, and all his supporters have just opened up a gigantic Pandora’s Box from which there is no return.
How will the Republican Party ever again justify not supporting a more principled Libertarian Party candidate on the ballot against a squishy Moderate Republican?
The Libertarian Party typically runs 800 to 1,000 candidates nationwide each election cycle. Compare that to the Conservative Party that runs less than 10.
Whatever the outcome of NY CD 23, clearly, it’s the Libertarian Party who will be the biggest beneficiary in the end of the Hoffman candidacy.
Eric Dondero, Publisher
Libertarian Republican
October 23rd, 2009 at 5:45 pm
I agree 100%, Benjamin. The whole party establishment needs to get behind Hoffman in a united front.
October 23rd, 2009 at 5:51 pm
I am hearing that Speaker Gingrich is feeling duped by his premature endorsement of Scozzafava. I would not be surprised to see Speaker Gingrich do a very public reversal which would be a huge game changer in this race and unite the Party behind Hoffman.
October 23rd, 2009 at 6:06 pm
3. JA, I just don’t think that many people really care what Newt thinks anymore.
October 23rd, 2009 at 6:08 pm
Snowe Rejects Public Option as Senate Democrats Weigh Measure
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601070&sid=aGvH6bSDIhoQ
Snowe Won’t Back Any Immediate Public Option
Senator Olympia Snowe, the only Republican so far to vote for health-care legislation, said in an interview on Bloomberg Television’s “Political Capital with Al Hunt,” airing this weekend, that she won’t support the immediate creation of any government-run insurance program and raised the possibility that legislation overhauling the health system won’t be completed this year.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601070&sid=aQyE8zXxtzYY
October 23rd, 2009 at 6:22 pm
I don’t know Martha, what Speaker Gingrich did may have in fact been pretty cunning – he gets on her side and defends her and then has more clout to come out and call on her to leave the race and abandon her campaign.
October 23rd, 2009 at 6:37 pm
“I don’t know Martha, what Speaker Gingrich did may have in fact been pretty cunning – he gets on her side and defends her and then has more clout to come out and call on her to leave the race and abandon her campaign.”
– Interesting.
I just left a message for the NRCC encouraging them to endorse Hoffman. 202-479-7000 is their number.
October 23rd, 2009 at 10:04 pm
I’ve always been a Newt fan, but this endorsement bothered me. He Picked a liberal over a conservative because of an “R” next to her name. I understand reaching out to moderates, the “big tent” idea, but the GOP has to have some “minimum job requirements.” For me, Scozzafava is not even close.
October 23rd, 2009 at 10:42 pm
I’m pretty encouraged by national Republicans’ willingness to support non-Republicans who are more in line with real conservative principles. I hope this trend continues.
October 23rd, 2009 at 10:43 pm
I would welcome the groups to flip to endorse Hoffman, but does anyone think that will really happen? At this point it seems it just allows the Democrat to come waltzing in untouched.
October 23rd, 2009 at 11:03 pm
Sarah Palin’s latest blunder
http://voices.washingtonpost.com/postpartisan/2009/10/sarah_palins_latest_blunder.html
October 23rd, 2009 at 11:12 pm
The article listed in number 11 would make sense… if:
1. “moderate” accurately defined Dede Scozzafava;
2. there was not a viable conservative choice backed with major funding and by major organizations/names;
3. in the course of one campaign-related event, the R candidate: acted cowardly, lied, and possibly broke the law.
I’ve never heard of the guy who wrote the article in #11, is his blog at The Post really titled “Post Partisan”? Because that nonsense is the most partisan-driven(or perhaps more accurately ideologically-driven) article I’ve yet to read about the NY-23 race.
October 23rd, 2009 at 11:13 pm
#12, edit: 3 should read, “the R candidate had not”
October 23rd, 2009 at 11:14 pm
Sarah Palin breaks with GOP to endorse Conservative Party candidate in N.Y. House race
http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/washington/2009/10/sarah-palin-republican-conservative.html
Palin splits with GOP on congressional race
The former governor endorses a more conservative third-party candidate over her own party’s choice
http://www.salon.com/politics/war_room/2009/10/23/palin_hoffman/index.html
Sarah Palin’s Book Is Already on Clearance
http://blog.newsweek.com/blogs/thegaggle/archive/2009/10/23/sarah-palin-book-cheap-amazon.aspx
October 24th, 2009 at 12:31 am
If Dede hadn’t endorsed card check I would back her as the Republican candidate, but there is NOTHING about card check that comes remotely close to being Republican. If adopted, it would be a major blow against the Capitalist economic system and the rights of working men and women.
October 24th, 2009 at 12:31 am
#11
As usual, WaPo gets it wrong. Only a far left outfit can consider a candidate who supports abortion, card check, cap and trade, etc…. to be “moderate” and anyone to that candidate’s right to be “far right.” Dede has become an albatross, and the endorsement of Hoffman is a no brainer for any Republican who wants to look principled.
October 24th, 2009 at 12:34 am
Dave,
Ironically, it was the unions long ago who (rightly) demanded the secret ballot for workers, fearing intimidation from employers and management. Now, of course, they figure it is they who can get away with the intimidation, and so they seek to trample on this fundamental right of workers for the sake of their own power.
Nobody who opposes secret ballots can claim to support the “working man.”
October 24th, 2009 at 12:35 am
Aron,
There is a major price-cutting battle in book sales going on between Walmart, Target, Sears, and other chains. That’s the reason Sarah’s book has been reduced in price. It’s not on clearance.
October 24th, 2009 at 12:37 am
MWS,
You’re right, as you often are when not talking about presidential candidates.
October 24th, 2009 at 1:08 am
Scozzafava Too Liberal for New York Conservatives
by John Gizzi
http://www.humanevents.com/article.php?print=yes&id=33619
October 24th, 2009 at 1:21 am
Romney gets into Virginia fight
http://www.boston.com/news/politics/politicalintelligence/2009/10/romney_gets_int.html
October 24th, 2009 at 1:41 am
Pawlenty ‘Concerned’ About NY GOP
Possible 2012 candidate says he’ll “probably” make an endorsement in the race.
http://abcnews.go.com/video/playerIndex?id=8901129
Pawlenty: My State Should Opt Out of Public Option
http://blogs.abcnews.com/thenote/2009/10/pawlenty-my-state-should-opt-out-of-public-option.html?nwltr=politics_featureHed
Rethinking Pawlenty’s Iowa Caucus Strategy
by Marc Ambinder
http://politics.theatlantic.com/2009/10/rethinking_pawlentys_iowa_caucus_strategy.php
October 24th, 2009 at 1:43 am
Newsweek may want to check the book rankings on Borders and Barnes and Noble if they are suggesting that her book sales are being inflated due to the price war between Wal-Mart and Amazon.
October 24th, 2009 at 2:00 am
On the NY23 Race, We Have A Practical Choice To Make
by Newt Gingrich
http://newt.org/FeaturedBloggersDB/tabid/193/articleType/ArticleView/articleId/4604/Default.aspx
October 24th, 2009 at 2:10 am
Pitchfork Sarah
Sarah Palin, should she decide to run for president in 2012, is on course to become the next Pat Buchanan or Jesse Jackson.
http://www.observer.com/2009/politics/pitchfork-sarah#
October 24th, 2009 at 2:34 am
Corzine’$ La$t $tand
The New Jersey governor can’t buy love, but he still has a chance to win.
by Jonathan V. Last
http://www.weeklystandard.com/Utilities/printer_preview.asp?idArticle=17119&R=163907EC7
Women voters key to N.J., Va. elections
http://dyn.politico.com/printstory.cfm?uuid=83752599-18FE-70B2-A89B264685A5BDFF
Will the Buckeye State Swing Back to the GOP in 2010?
By Stuart Rothenberg
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/printpage/?url=http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2009/10/23/_will_the_buckeye_state_swing_back_to_the_gop_in_2010_98830.html
October 24th, 2009 at 4:00 am
“So Sarah Palin has endorsed a right-wing candidate, Doug Hoffman, running on the Conservative Party line for a House seat in Upstate New York,” So she should endorse a hard Left wing candidate instead? C’mon.
October 24th, 2009 at 4:43 am
Thanks for printing Newt’s article. This is how the Republican’s will regain the majority in 2010′. Third party movements are only going to tear the GOP apart.
With Palin’s endorsement today, she managed to throw the Republican Party off the speeding bus, embarrass Gingrich, offer Pawlenty up as a straw man, and become the leader of a 3rd Party movement, with the help of those who have kept her name front and center for the past 4 months.
October 24th, 2009 at 4:46 am
Since I don’t vote in NY, I don’t have a horse in the race. I think they should choose whom they want, to suit their people. The GOP wants us all to walk lock step, but I think we need to realize there is room in the GOP for different ideas, colors, shapes. You know… the world. Not just the narrow view of some.
October 24th, 2009 at 4:53 am
David Schmidt. I’ll be leaving a message today too. Thanks for the number. I want it clear that we need to start making room in the party for moderates and those with ideas other than the lock step that some want to follow blindly in.
There’s room in the party for those that can think for themselves. How about opening up the tent like Reagan spoke about? Making room for everyone, and not just a certain few who wear the right shade of brown shirt?
October 24th, 2009 at 5:52 am
Although I would prefer Hoffman as our republican candidate, that is not what we have here. Gingrich makes a lot of sense, as does our commenter ‘ikv’. There are plenty of conservative candidates across the nation that Sarah could get behind. Why run against the Republican party? It seems a lot like she is open to a third party no matter what it does to the party. That attitude will usher in Obama for 4 more years. I’d like to see her supporting conservative Republicans, and leave this one alone, but too late for that.
October 24th, 2009 at 7:12 am
Dave, not yet, but give it time to get published. Yes, it did just fine in pre sales, with a whole lot of bulk orders. But I don’t see it as a sustained best seller. It’s a blip for quick cash and a publicity tour.
October 24th, 2009 at 7:14 am
Conservative, Because it’s the hot item in the GOP circle today. Tomorrow, it will be something/someone else. One can get frost bite by sticking a wet finger in the artic winds.
October 24th, 2009 at 8:05 am
I’m a socially liberal Republican living in West Virginia. Frankly, I’m disgusted with Sarah Palin’s latest stunt (and that’s precisely what it is). I don’t care how anybody spins this–regardless of who Sarah Palin endorsed, he was not the official nominee of the Republican Party. It would be no different than if she had refused to endorse John McCain in 2008.
I’m going to go out on a limb and put forward my theories of why the ultra-conservatives are refusing to support the official nominee of the Republican Party.
1. Dede Scozzafava supports the right to choose and the right to marry. The ultra-conservatives might have held their nose and disregarded the former. But opposing equal marriage rights is something on which they don’t negotiate.
2. There is nothing the ultra-conservatives love more than sticking their finger in the collective eye of the perceived “establishment.” This was the perfect chance for them to say “F*** you, party leaders, we do what we want.” Once again, I am genuinely pained to see the denizens of the trailer park storming the gates of the country club.
October 24th, 2009 at 8:21 am
Top Republicans jump ship in NY-23
http://dyn.politico.com/printstory.cfm?uuid=83757820-18FE-70B2-A8DAE05237ED593E
October 24th, 2009 at 9:44 am
Great column Ben.
October 24th, 2009 at 4:16 pm
“I am genuinely pained to see the denizens of the trailer park storming the gates of the country club.” Well, we now have it on record that the country club is also for cap & tax, fiscal irresponsibility, socialized medicine, Union Card check and the stimulus among other things because these are this issues that their Queen Dede supports. It is funny how all of a sudden those of us who are against the stimulus and fiscal irresponsibility are part of the trailer park. It looks like the Moderates are actually the ones who want a small tent. ACORN: Yes, TEA Party: No, that in the new battle cry of the Moderate fringe of our party.
October 24th, 2009 at 8:00 pm
all due respect, but really? according to the poll in the last post, a Dem is leading, one candidate is 5 points behind him, one candidate is 12 points behind him, and the obvious answer, taken for granted in this post, is that the candidate who’s down 5 should back out in favor of the candidate who’s down 12?
look, it’s a lousy nominating system and Scozzofava is not a candidate who represents the general policy views of the GOP, so i completely understand conservatives being ticked. but realistically, you would need to see two or three polls showing Hoffman in 2nd or 1st before the RNC and NRCC would even consider this.
newt made a mistake endorsing, it would just make him look clown-shoes now to flip a week and a half before the election. nothing cunning about that.
has giuliani weighed in? done any fundraising for this race? if he didn’t, he’s clever for staying out of it and not annoying the base or the establishment before he runs for Gov.
October 25th, 2009 at 1:02 am
I actually had heard that Guiliani was going to make a big endorsement of Scozzofava.
October 25th, 2009 at 7:47 am
Regardless of the outcome, I hope the RNC and NRCC have gotten the message – MOVE TO THE RIGHT you morons!
October 28th, 2009 at 7:58 am
I live in Canastota, Madison County, NY. I was not going to vote until Hoffman announced his campaign because there is no real difference between Owens & Dede. As I drive around Madison County, Hoffman support signs easily out number Owens & Dede signs combined. The main party lines need to listen to the people. Dede needs to listen to the people of the 23rd congressional district. She needs to back out of the race to unite the GOP so we do not lose the seat in Congress; it takes real character and integrity to do what is best for the people.