Suppose the Republican nomination came down to a choice between Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee, for whom would you vote?
- Mike Huckabee 44%
- Mitt Romney 39%
Suppose the Republican nomination came down to a choice between Mitt Romney and Sarah Palin, for whom would you vote?
- Mitt Romney 52%
- Sarah Palin 37%
Suppose the Republican nomination came down to a choice between Sarah Palin and Mike Huckabee, for whom would you vote?
- Mike Huckabee 55%
- Sarah Palin 35%
I’m going to read you a short list of people in the News. For each, please let me know if you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or very unfavorable impression.
Mitt Romney
- Very favorable 34%
- Somewhat favorable 44%
- Somewhat unfavorable 8%
- Very unfavorable 4%
Sarah Palin
- Very favorable 42%
- Somewhat favorable 33%
- Somewhat unfavorable 13%
- Very unfavorable 9%
Mike Huckabee
- Very favorable 46%
- Somewhat favorable 32%
- Somewhat unfavorable 12%
- Very unfavorable 3%
Newt Gingrich
- Very favorable 34%
- Somewhat favorable 35%
- Somewhat unfavorable 14%
- Very unfavorable 8%
Tim Pawlenty
- Very favorable 10%
- Somewhat favorable 35%
- Somewhat unfavorable 21%
- Very unfavorable 7%
Michael Steele
- Very favorable 11%
- Somewhat favorable 28%
- Somewhat unfavorable 18%
- Very unfavorable 9%
Survey of 750 likely 2012 GOP voters was conducted October 15. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points.
October 17th, 2009 at 12:48 pm
Repeat after me, Rom-bots:
“Mike Huckabee is the frontrunner for the GOP Presidential nomination.”
October 17th, 2009 at 1:02 pm
Flip,
Numbers aren’t everything, and even in terms of numbers you’re only talking a 5-point differential, despite Fox’s best efforts to make it larger. What will prove decisive in the end will be electability, organization, and resources. Advantage: Mitt.
October 17th, 2009 at 1:03 pm
#1. Lol. Has it gotten this childish?
October 17th, 2009 at 1:08 pm
Mike Huckabee is showing the establishment that he too is a key player for the republican party. He is going directly to the American voter and talking with them regarding the issues that are most important to them.
October 17th, 2009 at 1:14 pm
Is the theory now that there is a Fox News conspiracy in favor of Huckabee?
October 17th, 2009 at 1:16 pm
Mike Huckabee’s weekend Fox program along with his guest appearance on other Fox shows has given him more exposure to the voters.
All I use to know about Huckabee was that he was an over-weight governor – and lost the weight due to health issues and was a guest on the Don Imus program.
Still believe that Mitt Romney will find the southern states troubling.
Am still hoping that there will be a true conservative that will step forward within the next year or so and be the 2012 candidate.
October 17th, 2009 at 1:19 pm
I believe that Huck will actually be less troublesome than last cycle. If you consider the electoral map, and the so-called “Ohio Plan” that the GOP is using in 2012, it is hard to configure a Huck nomination. Even a win in Iowa won’t give him enough momentum to win in NH. Mitt will clearly win NV again, and when SC comes around both candidates will have some momentum–but Huck could pull off a win there with his evangelical appeal. However, after that, it is basically over for Huck. The next voting day consists of 15 or so small states . . . ALL of which Mitt has a huge advantage over Huck (e.g. Western states, New England, WV-which favored Mitt in ’08 but for . . . you know the story). After that, no matter which of the 3 sets of large states goes first, Huck’s strength in the South is sufficiently offset by Mitt’s strength in the remaining non-southern states in that group. The only “huge” state that Mitt does not have a lock might be TX, but CA, FL, and NY would more than make up for a loss there.
Huck’s appeal is just not broad enough. When the campaigning starts, that will be more evident than ever.
October 17th, 2009 at 1:21 pm
There’s really been no change, Tommy. It has always been the Rombot position that anyone not 100% pro-Romney is part of the conspiracy against Romney.
October 17th, 2009 at 1:22 pm
If the Romney campaign is smart, they’ll take Huckabee more seriously than they did last time. Romey’s camp didn’t recognize the threat Huckabee posed to them in Iowa until it was too late. This time around, they should be prepared to take a couple of early losses (Iowa and S.C. if it becomes basically a 2-man race).
As for the Huckabee campaign, they should know that they need to broaden their man’s appeal if he is going to be anything more than just a spoiler. Huckabee needs to be able to compete in places like OH, IL, and PA if he is going to capture the nomination.
October 17th, 2009 at 1:27 pm
Well as a Palinite, I am not happy that my camp loses to both Ms in a one on one contest. I cannot say I am totally surprised, a few people in both M camps have a difficult time voting for a woman; oh well, that is just the way it is. Look at the bright side, at least the both M wings of the party can now tolerate each other.
October 17th, 2009 at 1:29 pm
8. Untrue. You seem bitter against anyone who supports Romney. I wonder why?
October 17th, 2009 at 1:29 pm
Jonathan, I agree with you. But don’t you think that virtually all (if not all) of the small states going for Mitt will give him so much momentum that Huck won’t be able to catch up? I really think that will turn out to be true, even if the first group of large states is the one most favorable to Huck (which is probably the one that includes TX and a few southern states).
October 17th, 2009 at 1:31 pm
“Huckabee needs to be able to compete in places like OH, IL, and PA if he is going to capture the nomination.” He can compete in Ohio, not Illinois and PA is the question mark.
Ironically, the Romney camp was more worried about Mr. Brownback than Mr. Huckabee; that is what probably did him in.
October 17th, 2009 at 1:33 pm
10. OJ, It’s got nothing to do with Palin being a woman, and I think you know that.
Also, OJ, don’t give up on Palin. Like I’ve said many times, she’s much more likable than Huck. I refuse to believe people will support the Huckster if Palin manages to get up to speed on the issues, and shows that she’s intelligent. As soon as she does that, Huck’s support will start to evaporate.
Post #7 is dead right. Huck is never going to be anything more than a regional candidate.
6. McCain, Huck and Romney pretty much split the south evenly overall. Romney does not have as big a problem in the south as some think.
October 17th, 2009 at 1:37 pm
#12:
That depends on if we actually adopt this “Ohio Plan”. I know Florida doesn’t want to wait; we were one of the most important primaries last time around and want to have an important say.
If we do go with the Ohio Plan, than Huckabee better pray that Palin runs. She could fight Romney out in the Western states, and Huck could fight in the Dakota’s, Nebraska, and West Virginia. All Huckabee has to do to survive that first round of primaries is to prevent Romney from sweeping them all. Huckabee would do pretty well in the 2nd round (taking TX, the Southern states, maybe MO, OK, KS). After that… who knows where the race could go.
October 17th, 2009 at 1:39 pm
Nope — not bitter against anybody. But I find the lunatic fringe of Romney supporters good for a lot of laughs.
October 17th, 2009 at 1:41 pm
Martha–I hope you are right in your belief that Romney’s “Southern problem” may not be that big of a problem. I am confident that Mitt will handily secure the nomination either way, but if he is able to weaken Huck’s alleged stronghold there, it won’t just be a victory for Mitt; it will be a total slaughter.
October 17th, 2009 at 1:43 pm
16. Your comments don’t reflect that. You seem to lump a lot of Romney people around here into your “lunatic fringe” category, and, your comments are mostly about other posters, rather than the issues.
October 17th, 2009 at 1:44 pm
Jonathan — I agree completely. Any thoughts on how they go about convincing folks (including me) that he’s a) conservative fiscally and b) not someone who plans on making the Constitution conform to god’s law?
October 17th, 2009 at 1:48 pm
#15–we don’t know that TX will be in the first round of large states (or do we . . . I could be wrong). Also, Florida wanting to go earlier would HELP Mitt. He almost bested McCain there in ’08. And as far as Huck needing Palin to run to “weaken” Mitt in the small state group, he might not want to gamble the possibility that she might help there against the possibility that with Palin in the race Huck’s chances in IA and SC (necessary for him to win) could be compromised.
I am personally pulling for the Ohio plan because of the advantage that I think it gives to Mitt. It looks like that is the plan the GOP will ultimately adopt–perhaps with a few alterations.
October 17th, 2009 at 1:49 pm
“If we do go with the Ohio Plan, than Huckabee better pray that Palin runs. She could fight Romney out in the Western states,” That is a double edge sword. It is true that Mrs. Palin could challenge Mr. Romney in some Western states where Mr. Huckabee could not, but Mr. Romney would get most (not all) western delegates anyway. Mrs. Palin (and actually Mr. Pawlenty as well) could cause big problems for Mr. Huckabee is Ohio. In a pure M & M contest, Mr. Romney would win about 6 or 7 CDs and Mr. Huckabee would take the rest of the state. More players in the race would muck things up for him. Also Mr. Palin would win enough votes in the south to prevent Mr. Huckabee from getting the magic 50% popular vote which would mean a delegate spit in many states.
October 17th, 2009 at 1:51 pm
#19:
He could talk about how he was the one talking about the declining economy in January of 08 while everyone else was focused on illegal immigration or other such issues. He could talk about how he refused to raise taxes in 2001 when the Democrats and liberals wanted him to. He could also drop this “Fair Tax” nonsense and talk about his opposition to the bailouts. The problem is that Huckabee doesn’t really have a great record on fiscal matters. His people also probably know that he can’t compete with Romney on fiscal matters; that’s probably why he is starting to talk about foreign policy, trying to get into that area and compete with Romney there.
October 17th, 2009 at 1:51 pm
21–How many states actually do a delegate split? I was under the impression that it was not many.
October 17th, 2009 at 1:57 pm
#21:
If none of the top-tier candidates sweep the early states, we could very well be heading to the convention to decide the race. If Romney runs too far to the right to block Huckabee/Palin, another candidate could rise up and run to the center and start picking up moderate votes. That sort of situation might produce a very fractured, divided field.
October 17th, 2009 at 1:58 pm
Rasmussen Poll: Huckabee Wins the Day with 29%…
Rasmussen published a GOP presidential nomination poll yesterday with Governor Mike Huckabee in the lead (29%), Romney behind 5% in second (24%). with Palin in a more distant third (17%). This is indeed good news for Mike Huckabee and fans, but I woul…
October 17th, 2009 at 2:01 pm
“21–How many states actually do a delegate split?” At least 23 can in theory split delegates. However, in some of those states one can still win all delegates of those states by either getting 50% of the popular vote or by winning all of the Congressional districts within those states.
October 17th, 2009 at 2:12 pm
Question: Do you think Rasmussen is burying the lede in an attempt to protect Palin, or do you think he’s simply waiting until tomorrow to headline separately Palin’s demoralizing 15 and 20 point deficits to Romney and Huckabee, respectively?
October 17th, 2009 at 2:13 pm
Yes, Jonathan, we could see a convention fight, but we will see who enters the race, btw I found 4 more states that could in theory split their delegates so I am up to 27 states (from various regions of the country.)
October 17th, 2009 at 2:17 pm
#1
“Mike Huckabee is the frontrunner for the GOP Presidential nomination.”
No. Huckabee is not the frontrunner and may not even run. If he does, he will be handicapped by some of the same things that stopped him last time: inability to appeal to economic conservatives, because of his big government, high tax policies in Arkansas, some of his pardons (which were highly questionable) and his inability to raise enough money to compete with Romney and Palin, both of whom will have plenty of cash. He is a dream candidate for the MSM because he is an ordained minister and will be ridiculously easy to stereotype, to say nothing of his other liablities.
These polls mean LESS than nothing. They are tantamount to trying to forecast the weather ten years in advance of the precise day. In March 2007, Giuliani was ahead of McCain 47-16 in the same Rasmussen poll. In August, 2007, Rudy was in a dead heat with Fred Thompson (25-24 or thereabouts) and McCain was in single digits. Those polls were taken nearly TWO YEARS CLOSER to the election than this poll and they were so far off that they are now laughable.
GOP primary politics is about intensity. If one candidate has the intensity (broken glass voters, they are called), his or her voters will go to the polls and that candidate’s turnout will be higher than those candidates who generate less enthusiasm. Rudy never generated any enthusiasm outside the beltway. Thompson generated some enthusiasm, but started late, had a very low energy level, and looked old. Huckabee generated enthusiasm among evangelicals, since he was the ONLY evangelical candidate, but he could not catch on with any other voters including the large libertarian bloc (economic conservatives as opposed to social conservatives). Romney generated much less enthusiasm than Huckabee (and continues to generate less even in the current Rasmussen poll), but outspent him heavily and was able thus to be competitive (although he won only THREE primaries in Utah, Massachusetts and Michigan, all of which he could claim as a home state). In this kind of race, McCain (who generated little to no enthusiasm and quite a bit of hostility; about 40% negative in the GOP itself)was able to slip by and win. He was acceptable to prolifers which Romney was not, and was enough of a spending hawk that people could tolerate his opposition to tax cuts, the cap and trade and assorted other foolishness).
2012 is going to be different. Huckabee will not have evangelicals all to himself. Palin is very popular with evangelicals and far more popular than Huck or Romney with conservative Catholics, and her prolife bona fides on which the majority base their vote are sterling.(Palin herself was raised Catholic, even though she now belongs to a nondenominational Christian Church). Moreover, the libertarian wing of the GOP will have a place to land, which they lacked in the 2008 primaries, and that is Palin. She is viscerally hostile to government, particularly federal government, meddling in the private sector, far more so than the other two(Huck and Mitt) who have employed big government solutions in their states. It is much easier to view 2012 not based upon a poll of 750 likely voters thirty months before the primaries. (BTW, two and one half years before an election, howis one determined to be a likely voter)
Plain’s charisma, and her fundraising ability will allow her to eclipse Huckabee quite easily and she will be the candidate around whom the social conservative wing of the GOP will coalesce. Unlike Huckabee, however, she will be able to get votes from the libertarian, anti-Tax wing of the party and the combination of the two wings will make her unstoppable. Moreover, she will be well financed, unlike Huckabee, and Mitt will not enjoy the huge financial advatage that kep him in the game against Huckabee.
October 17th, 2009 at 2:28 pm
Aron,
Are you actually suggesting that Rasmussen is trying to protect Palin?
It is almost a complete certainty that he’ll release the data tomorrow considering that it’s in the crosstabs.
October 17th, 2009 at 2:36 pm
I’m suggesting that Palin being down 20 to Huckabee and 15 to Romney is much bigger news than Huck’s 5 point lead over Mitt. By burying the lede, whether intentional or not, it helps to keep a negative Sarah Palin story out of Sunday’s papers, and possibly the Sunday morning shows as well.
October 17th, 2009 at 2:44 pm
boy with these new polls maybe huckabee can raise 40, even 50 dollars! woohoo
funny that the dems ordered their party not to attack huckabee at all. hmmm wonder why???
huckabee is truly the frontrunner, just like giuliani.
October 17th, 2009 at 2:45 pm
Why are some of you think Texas would go Huckabee? Mitt was leading everyone in exas before he dropped out, McCain by a small margin, and Huckabee by a ton. Why are you all assuming that has changed?
October 17th, 2009 at 2:47 pm
Aron,
Sunday morning shows? Rasmussen is a total joke among that crowd and rarely gets cited on any network or newspaper that is not Fox News or not conservative-leaning. When Chuck Todd is talking about untrustworthy polls, he’s talking about Rasmussen. So your theory is highly unrealistic since Rasmussen is probably aware no network is going to cite his polls anyway.
http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/archives/2006/03/beware_of_onlin.php
This isn’t the first time you’ve insinuated some rasmussen love for Palin (I recall an old thread where you wondered why Rasmussen wouldn’t poll Palin in a poll asking about Letterman).
The only person whose numbers are really completely different from their numbers in any other poll is Romney. We have a 28-point gap in favorables between PPP(D) and Rasmussen for Romney. Gallup and Pew both have Romney under 60% with Republicans as well.
October 17th, 2009 at 2:49 pm
Here’s Chuck Todd completely slamming Rasmussen from the link:
The networks and Sunday shows would never cite Rasmussen even if Palin was leading by 20 and 15 in his poll.
October 17th, 2009 at 2:55 pm
#31
“I’m suggesting that Palin being down 20 to Huckabee and 15 to Romney is much bigger news than Huck’s 5 point lead over Mitt. By burying the lede, whether intentional or not, it helps to keep a negative Sarah Palin story out of Sunday’s papers, and possibly the Sunday morning shows as well.”
This poll is not big news at all, except for political junkies. It mans exactly SQUAT. If you break it down, of the 750 voters who were pressed with the “either/or” question, I calculate that 481 picked Huckabee and 305 picked Palin. What does that prove? Most of the ones who picked Huckabee probably don’t know who he is or what he stands for. There has been no campaign. He has taken no positions and his record has not been examined. Ditto Romney. 175 more people in this poll, when pressed, said they preferred Huck and maybe 125 more preferred Mitt. push polls even 8 months (as opposed to this one 2 and one half YEARS) before the election did not do it for Rudy and they won’t do it for Huck or Romney either. And…they are not news.
October 17th, 2009 at 3:03 pm
The poll is big news because regardless of what people know about Romney and/or Huck – they certainly know Palin. She has been a fixture on network and cable news fir the past year. That she is down so spectularly compared to people that the public may know little about is quite telling.
October 17th, 2009 at 3:07 pm
[...] going to piggyback on Aron’s thread here, because I couldn’t help but notice the desperation response in the comments in response to the suggestion that Mike Huckabee is the frontrunner for 2012: [...]
October 17th, 2009 at 3:12 pm
I should say *for* and *spectacularly*
October 17th, 2009 at 3:13 pm
Adam,
A fixture on network and cable news? I would agree with that sentiment if you are claiming that she is talked about on network and cable news. But Palin herself has been absent from network and cable news for the past year.
October 17th, 2009 at 3:14 pm
Had Rasmussen headlined terrible news for Palin today, do you really not think Gregory, Stephanopoulos or Schieffer would temporarily set any anti-Rasmussen bias aside, especially if the subject of 2012 came up in a roundtable discussion?
For what innocuous reason would you deliberately sit on the most significant findings from a poll you just conducted, and withhold it from the general public for another day?
October 17th, 2009 at 3:17 pm
40,
I don’t mean she showed up personally – but she is talked about CONSTANTLY. Whether it’s the flap about Letterman, her resignation, controversies over Levi, and she was second only to Obama in crowd enthusiasm last fall. Everyone knows Palin.
October 17th, 2009 at 3:19 pm
…who watch the Sunday morning shows and keep up to date on presidential politics in the Sunday papers.
Obviously, but it’s crack to political junkies, and who am I to deny our loyal customers?
October 17th, 2009 at 3:19 pm
In other words, it can’t be claimed that Palin isn’t widely known, as Zebra is claiming (plausibly) about Huck and Romney. The reason Palin is tanking is because she just isn’t liked.
October 17th, 2009 at 3:19 pm
#37
“She has been a fixture on network and cable news fir the past year.”
She hasn’t given an interview since she left the governor’s mansion three months ago. She has not done any TV or interviews to speak of since the election, which was one year ago. She has not been engaged at all in attending the CPAC and Values Voters forums as did Romney and Huck. She does not have a TV show.
In saying she has been a fixture on network and cable shows for a year, you mean that she has been ATTACKED on them and caricatured and that this is how the public (or the ignorant portion that just listen to the news they get from the MSM and are not engaged)KNOWS Palin. Imagine this. She is going to begin her campaign and it is going to be obvious to all her critics, some of whom (like you) favor another candidate, but most of whom do not have strong impressions of her (and the negative impression are based not upon reality, but only upon what they have been told). I think you are in for a real surprise, because the vast disengaged majority is going to find her intelligent and articulate and they are going to be surprised because that is not what they have been told by Olbermann, Letterman and other reliable authorities. I, on the other hand, will not be surprised, because I have seen this movie before (in 1979-80).
October 17th, 2009 at 3:22 pm
Oh boo friggin’ hoo. You thank maybe she could have, you know, changed that herself? Any show would gladly accept an offer for her appearence. She just can’t talk off the cuff. She knows it and she steers clear of venues that aren’t scripted. That can’t stand if she wants to win anything.
October 17th, 2009 at 3:23 pm
“she just isn’t liked.”
Adam, She is not liked by you and other Romney supporters because she is the current immovable object in Mitt’s path to the nomination. For him to have even a chance to advance, she has got to be eliminated. If Romney could get Huck one on one, the nomination would be much more doable for him.
October 17th, 2009 at 3:26 pm
zebra,
No. Frankly I don’t see her as a threat. I think she is stupid and comes across as such. I have no idea whether or not Romney gets the nomination and I am certainly open to other candidates. Trust me – I am far from a die hard Rombot. I just am sick of this woman being propped up by Beck and the talk radio blabosphere for doing nothing but looking good (no, great) in a skirt and holding up a rifle.
October 17th, 2009 at 3:28 pm
“You thank maybe she could have, you know, changed that herself?”
No. I don’t think she could change the MSM’s disdain for her anymore than I think she could win over Romney’s small. but loyal cadre, of supporters. She is a threat to both and they will continue to caricature her. she will circumnavigate them and go directly to the people, as she has been doing, to great effect. She is very good on the stump or how else do you explain her gigantic crowds? The election is not tomorrow, Adam.
October 17th, 2009 at 3:34 pm
“I just am sick of this woman being propped up by Beck and the talk radio blabosphere”
She is being propped up? Did you see her speech at the RNC? Did you see the debate with Biden? Stupid? No. I don’t think so. Do you think Mark Levin is stupid? He has a very high opinion of Palin’s intellect and he is no fool. I have a high opinion of her intellect and her communication skills as well, and I can assure you I am no fool either.
October 17th, 2009 at 3:42 pm
Wow. Great news for Romney. If he is that close to Huckabee with GOP voters, this early, with no weekly show exposure like Huck, and the GOP voters making up about 30 % of all voters, let’s poll the independents and Dems and see who would be most likely to carry the critical states outside the deep south in 2012. Go ahead, Rasmussen, run the numbers.
October 17th, 2009 at 3:46 pm
Mark Levin recently lamented that he had gotten on board for Romney way to late, implying that he won’t make that mistake again.
You had better look elsewhere for your name dropping.
Zebra, you are even more delusional than usual today. Palin is propped up constantly by talk radio, and fox news. If you can’t see that, then I don’t even know where to begin…
October 17th, 2009 at 3:55 pm
“Mark Levin recently lamented that he had gotten on board for Romney way to late”
Surely you can then provide a link that includes the audio for Levin expressing such sentiments. Because the last time I heard Levin in the “news” was from the following clip:
Levin Slams Steve Schmidt
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tapW3D-tSnE&feature=player_embedded
October 17th, 2009 at 4:07 pm
Aron,
If the Sunday shows weren’t going to talk about Huckabee leading 29-24-18, what makes you think the Sunday shows would show a Rasmussen poll showing one-on-one mathcups that are unlikely to happen and unrealistic whereas a three-way race is much more realistic, including a probable fourth person in Tim Pawlenty?
October 17th, 2009 at 4:45 pm
#52 & 53
“Mark Levin recently lamented that he had gotten on board for Romney way to late, implying that he won’t make that mistake again.”
You better get your facts straight. Mark Levin preferred Thompson to Romney. he only supported Romney after Thompson dropped out and ONLY TO TRY TO STOP McCain. I love how you Rombots are such revisionists and play fast and loose with the facts. He knew Romney was far from a perfect candidate. You are the one who is delusional if you think Levin is going to support Romney over Palin. That is never going to happen.
By the way, I am attaching the link of an interview Levin did with Palin in which he praises her and compares her, and particularly the attacks on her, with Ronald Reagan.
http://catholicfire.blogspot.com/2008/10/sarah-palin-on-mark-levin-show.html
Here, after her resignation, Levin praises the move and says she is the biggest attraction in the Republican Party (and he has seen it with his own eyes) and is extremely able and popular in spite what her enemies say about her.
Levin says he thinks she is running for President. He says the budding campaign organizations of the other candidates “are worried”.(even though you and Adam profess to see her as no threat). He says the smear operation against her is one of the most vicious, and vile he has ever seen.
Levin says, “I like this lady.” “She is very articulate and has a connection with ordinary folks”. Levin says the attacks on Palin are “because the Dems and the White House are scared of her” and he wishes that some conservatives wouldn’t throw in with the liberal argument:She doesn’t come off great.” Levin said: “Baloney, she comes off great.”
I am glad Levin, who was (like me) a Ronald Reagan worker in 1980 sees the parallels and realizes, as I do, just how lame the attacks on Palin truly are.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Q23VttPkCo
Levin, even when he endorsed Romney to stop McCain, was NEVER this enthusiastic about Mitt.
October 17th, 2009 at 5:04 pm
The Sunday talk shows won’t talk about Huckabee-they like to pretend that he does not exist.
I have noticed that many people write in to Huckabee’s feeback line saying that they did not know about him in the primaries, so they did not vote for him. Then these same people say that they like Huckabee, trust him and are encouraging him to run in 2012.
So while some will say that Huckabee has a ceiling, I don’t necessarily think that is true, as some are just getting to know him by watching his show. And some would say that he can’t expand his base, but I think he is doing just that.
October 17th, 2009 at 5:08 pm
CraigS–do you mind my asking where you are from?
October 17th, 2009 at 5:17 pm
53. Tommy Boy, I didn’t hear Levin say it, because I don’t listen, but I don’t know why you are so skeptical. I don’t see why anyone would make it up, and I think it sounds like something he would say. We all know that the talk show hosts could have jumped in sooner in favor of Romney. It was too little, too late, and I’m sure many regret it. I’m not sure how much they influence the vote, however.
Levin seems like a pretty big Palin fan, but that does not mean that he didn’t say he endorsed Romney too late. I don’t think anyone is claiming that Levin favors Romney over Palin yet.
October 17th, 2009 at 5:19 pm
Romney was favored to beat McCain in Texas, had he stayed in the race that long, and certainly Huckabee.
October 17th, 2009 at 5:23 pm
That is interesting, Jed. I guess I just assumed Huck would have an inherent advantage in TX given its quasi-Bible-belt status. If TX continues to favor Romney then Huck has virtually no chance at the nomination regardless of the order of big-state primaries.
October 17th, 2009 at 6:29 pm
(Zebra says)…”Huckabee is not the frontrunner and may not even run.”
Umm…He’s ahead in the polls. But we don’t know if he will run for President. This is a serious and very demanding decision for anyone.
“If he does, he will be handicapped by some of the same things that stopped him last time: inability to appeal to economic conservatives, because of his big government, high tax policies in Arkansas.”
These are unfortunate inaccuracies, spread by Democrats who opposed him and some Republicans. Read his book, “Do the Right Thing” for answers that show how fiscally conservative he was and is. He was the only candidate, Republican or Democrat, to oppose the TARP bill. He is circulating a petition for government to Balance.Cut.Save.
…”inability to raise enough money to compete with Romney and Palin, both of whom will have plenty of cash.” Cash is necessary, but it also matters how it is spent. Huckabee’s team knows how to get the most from the buck.
…”He is a dream candidate for the MSM because he is an ordained minister and will be ridiculously easy to stereotype, to say nothing of his other liablities.”
Yes, he is a dream candidate who can answer questions easily and captivate audiences. Many more Americans believe a strong faith and the ability to minister to people is a strong asset, not a liability. Remember Reagan’s ability to inspire? That’s what America desperately needs now.
October 17th, 2009 at 6:46 pm
Oh man, some of you guys are on crack. NO WAY ROMNEY WOULD’VE WON TEXAS. He was ahead in texas in like 1 poll. Huckabee and Mccain were ahead in the rest…thompson and guliani had some good early polling there as well. Had romney stayed in, Huckabee would’ve beat mccain in texas.
October 17th, 2009 at 6:46 pm
It’s amazing how many people are confident that the candidate they favor most will be the candidate others favor most. We all thought people would be crazy to vote for a neophyte Chicago machine socialist like Obama, but they did. The mentality should be the exact opposite, always behave as if your candidate is the unpopular one, always assume people need convincing.
Huckabee might make an awful, nanny state big government POTUS, but he is the frontrunner.
Of course, since the election isn’t now, these polls are irrelevant. If Palin or Pawlenty were to start barnstorming Iowa, there is no doubt either would have a chance to overtake Huckabee.
October 17th, 2009 at 6:48 pm
#61
Sorry. Huck did pursue high tax policies in Arakansas. The libertarian Cato Institute gave him a grade of F for his last term as Governor and an overall grade for his entire tenure of D. He ain’t getting libertarians. His record on crime in Arkansas is also abysmal, and his pardons make Mike Dukakis look like a rightwinger. Don’t worry. When this all comes out, he is going to fold like a cheap suit, especially when he is facing a real opponent like Palin.
“Many more Americans believe a strong faith and the ability to minister to people is a strong asset, not a liability. Remember Reagan’s ability to inspire?”
People do not want a preacher for President. If you think they do, you are living in a fairy tale. Palin is just as appealing and more so to evangelicals as Huck, and she doesn’t have the baggage of being a preacher. Huck’s presentation also reeks a bit too much of a snake oil salesman, at least in my opinion. Sorry. He won’t sell.
October 17th, 2009 at 6:55 pm
Great poll for Mike. Congrats to him!
October 17th, 2009 at 7:37 pm
I’m no Huckabee supporter, but you have to give the man credit.
After all the millions Romeny spent to destroy him, he’s still the most popular Republican in the country.
October 17th, 2009 at 7:39 pm
Unlike Romney in 2008 I will never discount Huckabee or say that he could not win the GOP nomination in 2012.
But if he does win it he would be more certain to do so if Sarah Palin did not run for POTUS. Only the most delusional could buy into that narrative now with the pending launch of her new organization and the release of her book on November 17th.
With in the mix, I believe Huckabee will have a harder path to the nomination. One thing that the Rasmussen poll and race42008 appears to overlook is that Palin leads Huckabee and Romney in GOP voters under 40. I can only see that growing in the future as she appeals to younger libertarian voters. In contrast Huckabee’s appeal to those under 40 is limited especially as he is not perceived as into high tech into any meaningful way.
Huckabee’s only other alternative is to gather more conservatives and evangelicals to his tent, but let me tell you as a Palin supporter the millions that support her now will never abandon her unless she does not run. You can take that to the bank. Not for one second will they even consider supporting Huckabee unless he gains the nomination.
October 17th, 2009 at 7:48 pm
65 – Romney spent millions to try and secure the nomination, not to “destroy” your man Huck.
October 17th, 2009 at 7:49 pm
66 – anyone who discounted Huckabee in 2008 turned out to be correct, as were those who discounted Romney or anyone other than McCain. 2012 is yet to be seen.
October 17th, 2009 at 8:28 pm
56 Gov Perry,
I’m from Atlanta…….where Romney carried the four metro Atlanta counties against McCain and Huckabee in the 2008 primary.
October 17th, 2009 at 10:08 pm
The only thing that surprises me is that every person did not vote for Governor Huckabee. It is sooo obvious that this great man should be president and that he has the best ideas and leadership skills to lead this country back to it’s Reagan year’s greatness. Huckabee 2012 in a landslide victory!!!
October 17th, 2009 at 10:13 pm
Pawlenty, while a good guy, will NOT overtake Governor Huckabee. You see, he has many of the same platforms that Huck does but lacks the experience, national name recognition and certainly he lacks the charisma that oozes from Governor Huckabee. Huckabee makes everyone feel “he speaks for them.” Pawlenty does not. The others are just so underqualified they are not worth mentioning.
October 17th, 2009 at 10:19 pm
Bob said “As for the Huckabee campaign, they should know that they need to broaden their man’s appeal if he is going to be anything more than just a spoiler.”
Bob, Have you not read these poll results at all? Do you not see Huckabee has MORE appeal to independents than ANY other possible 2012 candidate? He HAS broad appeal. You are just trying to spin it that he doesn’t. Sorry, but this time that just won’t work. You see, Huck has bypassed the media and he is his own talking head. This time, his real message will get out to the masses and we all like what we are hearing…..
October 17th, 2009 at 10:30 pm
““Mike Huckabee is the frontrunner for the GOP Presidential nomination.””
Well it’s about freakin time Huckabee had a little lead. For crying out loud, the man has his own TV show! He should have a little portion of what we call “Oprah Effect.”
It won’t last long.
October 18th, 2009 at 12:42 am
If you look at the net favorables, Romney is highest followed closely by Huckabee. Both those guys are viewed favorably, though this voter cannot see why Huckabee as a candidate could be viewed so well. I suppose most folks in this poll are viewing Huckabee the former candidate and current TV celebrity. So it just means this…wait and see what the prevailing issues are and which of the two is best equipped to lead on them. I don’t see how Huckabee will be prepared to lead on any issue with all his time and attention being focused on his show. But he has always had his priorities askew if you ask me, focusing too much on prisoner petitions and less on ways to avoid tax hikes.
October 18th, 2009 at 1:56 am
Linda,
Well shoot, you just convinced me.
Oh wait, maybe not. I can’t seem to get those 1000 pardons out of my head. Or the 500 million in new taxes, or the arrogant bunker mentality – you get it, right?
BTW – the reason Pawlenty is a better candidate than Huck is because he DOESN’T HAVE ANY OF THE BAGGAGE THAT HUCK HAS. In fact, thats why EVERY other candidate is better than poor Huck.
October 18th, 2009 at 12:26 pm
To Martha and everyone else who speaks of Huck’s expansion needs: In the head to head between Huckabee and Romney: it is Huck 44% and Romney 39%.
Note; “44%” is NOT a regional candidate. And if Huck is “regional” at 44% then what is Romney? And if Huck’s “appeal” isn’t broadening at 44%, then what in the world is happening to Romney at 39%.
Come one, folks — cut it out. You hate Huckabee — or don’t like him that much — fine, that’s your prerogative. You adore Romney, or at least think he is a better candidate, that is what elections are all about. You don’t believe that polls this far out establish anything other than name recognition — I agree — but add that all three candidates have equal recognition.
But, please — say nothing, but dont’ try to take this poll and make it sound bad for Huckabee and relevant for Romney. You lose all your credibility.
October 18th, 2009 at 12:57 pm
Crosstabs in the Huck vs Romney head to head:
Religious Affiliation
Protestants: H 40 – R 41 — about par
Catholics: H 37 R 44 — edge to Romney, but certainly not a mass “rally” as some have suggested
Evangelicals: H 58 R 27 —- and this is their strongest base
Church Attendance
Rarely or never go to Church: H 35 R 44 — Romney gets the edge, but the non-Church-goers aren’t flocking to him
Attend church on a regular basis (this is any chuch) All in Huckabee’s favor:
Once a week: H 49 – R 33
More than once a week: – H 60 – R 28
Ideology:
Conservatives: H46 – R39
Moderates: H39 – R41 — Fairly even — and this is “Romney’s base”
Liberals: H 40 R 32
Wage Earners
Under $20,000 — H 44 – R 23
20,000-40,000 H 45 R 36
40,000-60,000 H 45 R 40
60,000-75,000 H 49 R 45
75,000-100,000 H 40 R 44
100,000+ H 40 R 48
So Huckabee is beating Romney in every category of wage earners until you get to over 75,000 (and there he is only 4 points behind) and over $100,000 (which is Romney’s base by far, and Huckabee is pretty close behind
Tell me again why Huckabee has to expand his base and extend his appeal, but Romney is doing just fine!!
October 18th, 2009 at 1:59 pm
Voter,
Some here won’t be able to handle such data. You really should be more kind. cough cough
October 19th, 2009 at 12:18 am
To al-Qaeda’s Cheers: Dick Cheney Is Running, Will Be the 2012 Republican Nominee
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/paul-abrams/to-al-qaedas-cheers-dick_b_325373.html
October 19th, 2009 at 12:29 am
Tommy Boy,
You said this on Saturday — it’s now Monday. I should’ve bet you a steak.
Perhaps Rasmussen will stop procrastinating tomorrow.
October 19th, 2009 at 1:28 am
Three years out and some people are actually calling the race. Remarkable. Even the most-degenerate gamblers wait until November before putting a future-book bet down on the winner of the Derby to be run in May.