1) Mitt Romney – Gov. Romney remains in the best position to win the GOP nomination, though his potential rivals have taken several strides to catch up with the frontrunner. Many of his future and past opponents have taken aim at his healthcare reform plan, dubbed Romneycare, and have used the national debate on healthcare reform to pound the former Massachusetts Governor. Finding a clear message on Romneycare is Gov. Romney’s first tough task of the 2012 cycle. Still, with a book on the way in early 2010, as well as courting 2008 nominee John McCain for fundraisers will continue to give the impression of Romney as inevitable establishment favorite.
2) Tim Pawlenty - Minnesota’s governor has made some significant moves in his pursuit of the 2012 nomination. He has created a PAC, Freedom First, and announced several major hires from previous campaigns. He has also taken direct aim at both Barack Obama’s and Mitt Romney’s healthcare plan, likely to be a favorite line of attack as Pawlenty sets out to overtake 2012 frontrunner Mitt Romney. With two terms as a conservative governor of a blue state, an inspiring life story, a finalist for Vice President in 2008, and a slew of positions on issues that line up with all corners of the GOP base, Pawlenty is fast becoming the alternative to Mitt Romney among the establishment. His virtual tie with Governor Romney at the Values Voters Summit, a poll Romney won the last several years, shows just how fast Pawlenty is rising.
3) Sarah Palin - After taking a hit due to her sloppy resignation, former Governor Sarah Palin has built considerable momentum, using a new media strategy that surpasses anything else other potential candidates have at their disposal. She has hammered the President on healthcare and cap and trade, using op-eds, twitter, and facebook to consistently hammer a message across. With the announcement that her book release will be moved up, ‘Going Rogue: An American Life’ is set to shatter all sorts of records for non-fiction books. Palin is establishing herself as easily the GOP’s biggest media star, but it has yet to be seen if she can channel that into an effective campaign organization.
4) Mike Huckabee – Huckabee continues to poll well while struggling to match his rivals in fund raising. This is Huckabee’s greatest problem; no matter how likable or how well he polls, his inability to raise money when hypothetically matched up against a billion-dollar Obama Machine will make Huck a tough sell for a party that will be desperate to win in 2012. As Palin begins to regain her footing, and with other social conservatives like Rick Santorum threatening to scoop evangelical support, Huckabee’s chances could hinge on whether or not he can find a way to raise money like a candidate at this level should. Still, the charming former Arkansas Governor has shown tougher lines of attacks both on Obama and on his favorite target, Mitt Romney, and their healthcare reforms. A big win at this year’s Values Voters Summit reminded everyone, however, that if Huck runs he will remain a favorite of the evangelical base, perhaps far more so then in 2008.
5) Newt Gingrich – Speaker Gingrich, amazing as it is, is beginning to look like an old, steady hand compared to some of the young guns, and given his potential for bold ideas and solid fundraising, puts him back near the top of the list. It is quite possible that if Obama fails that the country would prefer a more proven, older leader to that of some new, young unknown. Newt continues to build support behind the scenes and his 527 raised more then $8 million in the first half of the year, far more then any other potential candidate (though 527s have different rules then PACs).
6) John Thune - Senator Thune is the most likely member of the Senate to get the GOP nod in 2012. He has the conservative resume to win over the base, the looks and communication skills to win over the broader electorate, and a chance in the Senate leadership to become the rhetorical counter to Obama the next four years. Senator Thune could emerge as a unifying figure in a field with a number of candidates who have difficulty winning over certain parts of the party; Romney with evangelicals, Huckabee with fiscal cons, Palin with moderates. He has the potential to be the compromise candidate, bringing the Romney and Palin wings of the party together behind a consensus choice, but he will have to start moving before Tim Pawlenty beats him to it.
7) Haley Barbour - Governor Barbour is perhaps the greatest strategist in the party. Putting those considerable skills to use, he could build a strong campaign and give himself a good chance to win the primary. However, Barbour is also the man who virtually invented modern lobbying and ran the most powerful lobbying firm in D.C., and while this may make him a legend to the inside-the-Beltway crowd, it would make him a tough sell to average voters. Barbour is still going to be a very important player in the rebuilding of the party, whether he runs or not. Mark Sanford’s affair and resignation as head of the RGA moves Barbour into the leadership role ahead of schedule, and elevates Barbour by process of elimination. As troubles for other governors mount, Barbour could continue this elevation by his competence alone, and further it with his famed political instincts.
8 ) Mitch Daniels - A very successful Rust Belt governor, Mitch Daniels proved himself by running what many call the best governor’s campaign of 2008 despite the dreadful climate for republicans. He is a graduate of Princeton and Georgetown, and served as Director of the OMB, while also sitting on the National Security Council and Homeland Security Council. Oh and he’s Arab-American(Syrian to be exact), proving once again that the GOP is far more inclusive then advertised. Recently Daniels has stepped up not only his criticism of Obama’s policies, but of the GOP’s current standing too, sounding a lot like someone who wants to lead the party out of the wilderness.
9) David Petraeus- Four-star Army General David Petraeus has been Shermanesque in his denials about interest in public office. However that hasn’t stopped GOP activists from courting the idea, and it hasn’t stopped media speculation about the possibility. Former Senate Majority Leader and GOP candidate Bob Dole suggested Petraeus seek the presidency as a latter-day Ike. Perhaps, like Eisenhower, it will take a citizen draft to convince the General that his service is needed elsewhere. However, changing situations, like a collapse in Afghanistan due to Obama’s shifting strategies or a potentially destructive conflict between Israel and Iran could force the general into presidential politics.
10) Jeb Bush - Bush joined the National Council for a New America, signaling his desire to take on a larger role in the national GOP. His name hurts now, but his popularity in Florida shows that he can outrun his brother’s shadow. As of December his brother’s approval rating in Florida was 29%, while his was 65%. His passing on a guaranteed senate victory is telling though. The National Council for a New America gives Jeb a new forum to reintroduce himself and his family name in a much different light, showing people that he is much more the pragmatic and thoughtful leader his brother never was. His name has started to come up from both welcome sources (the Daily Beast) and unwelcome sources (Dick Cheney) as a potential candidate. Expect those calls to get louder and louder, especially with Sonia Sotomayor’s nomination to the SCOTUS possibly creating even greater losses for the GOP among Hispanics and Jeb’s proven appeal to the Hispanic community. With the continued stumbles of potential candidates like Palin, Jindal, Sanford, and Ensign, how much longer can the GOP afford to keep Jeb sidelined because of the perception of his brother? It’s time to be grownups, and time for Jeb to take a larger role.
11) Rick Perry – The long serving Texas Governor has bounced back from poor early polls to take a solid lead in the GOP primary against Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison. A successful primary followed by likely reelection (and perhaps an important Senate appointment) will help raise Gov. Perry’s profile further in the national party. He is already winning populist support for his anti-Washington screed, and won the endorsement of Gov. Palin. But it’s his state’s strong economy that just might push the Texas Governor into contention. As blue states like California and New Jersey head into spiraling fiscal crisis, Texas stands as a strong example of successful conservative economics in the face of a President pushing tax-and-spend liberalism. This factor, combined with a long, experienced career can put Perry in the mix for 2012.
12) Jim DeMint - DeMint has a rock solid conservative record and is likely to be a visible opponent of Obama these next 4 years on virtually everything the President wants to do. Senator DeMint happily endorsed Club for Growth head and former Congressman Pat Toomey against then-Republican Arlen Spector, followed by an endorsement of Marco Rubio despite establishment support for Charlie Crist, showing just how far DeMint is willing to go for an ideologically pure GOP as well as sending a message to disloyal Republicans. With a record that can win over Iowa’s GOP and a home base in South Carolina, DeMint could emerge as more then a vanity candidate from the Senate, but rather a real dark horse.
13) Rick Santorum – Former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum has scheduled a number of appearances in Iowa, and all indicators seem to be pointing to a presidential run. Santorum is a strong neoconservative with very strict social conservative values. While the former Senator may have some strong inroads with values and religious voters, he was also crushed in his 2006 reelection bid, and therefore may find it difficult convincing party activists that he can appeal to the broader electorate.
14) Rudy Giuliani – America’s Mayor is gearing up for a run against Governor David Patterson in 2010, and if that race happens, a likely victorious Governor Giuliani could instantly be back among the front-runners in 2012. Rudy remains a popular figure in polls both among Republicans and independents, and in an environment of a poor economy that is likely followed by high crime rates, the former mayor and potential governor could find himself in a strong position. Lessons learned from 2008 could serve Rudy well in the early states, and with no McCain to compete with he could become the consensus leader among the GOP’s moderate and national security wing. If another Presidential bid isn’t in the cards, a VP slot may not be far off.
15) Mike Pence – The Indiana congressman has been drawing some buzz about a potential presidential run. A trip to South Carolina as well as a surprising 5th place finish in the Values Voters straw poll (behind Huckabee, Romney, Pawlenty, and Palin) has boosted speculation about a potential run for the White House. Trips to Iowa and California, as well as a big speech during the 9-12 Tea Party march on D.C. continue to fuel buzz about Rep. Pence’s future plans. Some feel he may be taking steps to run for the senate seat held by Richard Luger, who will turn 80 before his seat is up again in 2012 and is likely to retire, while others think he may have his eyes on succeeding Gov. Mitch Daniels. Then again, some grassroots activists would like to see Rep. Pence aim for an even higher office in 2012.
Previous Rankings:
1) Mitt Romney
2) Tim Pawlenty
3) John Thune
4) Newt Gingrich
5) Sarah Palin
6) Mike Huckabee
7) Mitch Daniels
8 ) Jeb Bush
9) Haley Barbour
10) Rick Perry
11) Dick Cheney
12) Jim DeMint
13) Rick Santorum
14) Rudy Giuliani
15) David Petraeus
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October 3rd, 2009 at 5:14 pm
Since Pawlenty is running, I don’t think Thune, or sadly, Daniels is going to go for it. There isn’t really room for more than 1 Midwesterner in the race. T-Paw is preempting the other Midwesterners. The best Thune and Daniels can hope for is the V.P. slot on a Romney, Huckabee, or Palin led ticket.
To truly be a top-tier candidate, Pawlenty needs to storm into Iowa and elbow Romney out of the way (make Romney focus on his must-win in NH), and count on Huckabee and Palin dividing the evangelicals and allowing Pawlenty to slip in. He then takes on Romney in New Hampshire and whoever is left from the Palin-Huckabee feud.
October 3rd, 2009 at 5:40 pm
Pence woos conservatives
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1009/27869.html
Pence Drawing Presidential Speculation
http://www.howeypolitics.com/2009/10/01/pence-drawing-presidential-speculation/
October 3rd, 2009 at 5:52 pm
Gov. Huckabee is not the favorite of the wealthy Republicans; which explains him not raising as much money as those favorites. Hucksarmy.com is still up and running and if Gov. Huckabee decides to run again, we will support him. During the 2008 elections, Gov. Huckabee was able to get more votes per dollar than any other candidate partly due to his grassroots efforts.
Gov. Huckabee won’t have to overcome the name recognition problem next time; because he is taking his message straight to the people just like Reagan did.
October 3rd, 2009 at 6:57 pm
Pawlenty has the nerve to attack MassCare when his own MinnesotaCare health plan is in a worse mess. He used health care funding cuts as a way to balance the state budget, after assuring Doctors that State sick tax ( a tax imposed on all medical services) would only be used to fund health welfare programs. In 2009 he went back on his word and recommended a 3% cut in Doctors reimbursements from the state and asked that the sick tax be put into the state’s general budget.
Pawlenty used a line-item veto to remove $381 million from health and human services funding, which could lead to 35,000 people losing their health insurance in 2011.
He also asked the Senate subcommittee to let the MinnesotaCare health plan to allow residents to import cheaper prescription drugs from Canada.
If Pawlenty is this dishonest now before the primary even starts then what’s he gonna be like when the campaign begins?
October 3rd, 2009 at 7:01 pm
If you believe in the FairTax, you better hope Gov. Huckabee will be our 2012 candidate. He is only candidate who is passionate about the FairTax.
October 3rd, 2009 at 7:07 pm
“Pawlenty used a line-item veto to remove $381 million from health and human services funding, which could lead to 35,000 people losing their health insurance in 2011.” Hello, it is not Mr. Pawlenty’s responsibility to look after the sick.
October 3rd, 2009 at 7:10 pm
In 08, Romney came in second place before he withdrew. He won 11 states and came in either 1st or 2nd in 22 / 29 states he competed in. He won over 30% of the vote in 19 of those states. He was the only candidate that drew good support in every region of the country.
Huckabee, on the other hand, placed 3rd or 4th in 21 states. He got 15% or less of the vote 23 times. He got 10% or less in 12 states. Huckabee was only able to beat Romney by 3 points in MO, and 2 points in GA, and had to conspire with McCain to narrowly beat Romney’s 47% in WV. Huckabee has extremely limited appeal and is easily the most regional candidate of all 4.
It might be good to remind people why Huckabee had such a difficult run in 08, and why he will most likely will again, despite the exposure on his show, etc.
Raised, begged for new taxes,
Big Government,
Flip-flop on Amnesty, and other issues,
1000 pardons – including murderers and rapists – at least one of whom went on to rape/kill again. Huck took NO responsibility, and lied about DuMond.
Dishonesty during the campaign and as Governor in numerous incidents.
Destroyed hard drives, wedding gifts registries, naming tons of public places after himself, etc.
Leftist talking points on Iran/Iraq during 08.
Inability to show FP/Defense creds.
Religion-baiting.
Huck may be doing all right in the polls at this point. But his record speaks for itself, and will emerge to disqualify him again.
October 3rd, 2009 at 7:21 pm
#7 I get the sense you’ll be frustrated if Huckabee doesn’t run. It removes a target for you to hate.
October 3rd, 2009 at 7:31 pm
Mitt Romney won’t get the nominee in 2012. He is not conservative and he is a ‘liar’. Tim Pawlenty will be a better candidate than Romney. He seemed to be a nice guy. I don’t know about Sarah Palin if she is going to run or not. Sarah has quit as the Governor of Alaska and didn’t finish out her term. I would love to see Newt Gingrich run for President in 2012. He is a true conservative and I don’t think he is going to run. I would put Pawlenty in first, Palin in second, Gingrich in third and Romney in 10th place.
October 3rd, 2009 at 8:13 pm
#6 OHIO JOE:
Pawlenty took money away from the sick tax, which was a tax levied on everyone who used any health service including dental work. It was supposed to be put in a pool for the poor, Pawlenty took it away and put it into the general fund as to balance the budget.
October 3rd, 2009 at 8:21 pm
PPP polling on Romney’s F/UF ranking with conservatives and Republicans in the last 3 polls (July, Aug Sept)compared to Palin and Huckabee:
CONSERVATIVES:
MITT HUCK SARAH
F UF F UF F UF
JULY 53 20 65 16 73 18
AUG 49 22 61 13 68 20
SEPT 46 20 59 15 69 22
REPUBLICAN:
JULY 54 25 66 19 76 19
AUG 52 18 66 13 72 16
SEPT 50 21 70 12 69 22
COMMENT:
To suggest that Romney “is in the best position to win the GOP nomination” is completely disingenuous given Romney’s declining F/UF over the last 3 months in these 2 important categories and trailing Sarah Palin by an average of 20 points in each of the 3 months. As only about 25% of Republicans are moderates I submit that Romney cannot win the nomination with these types of numbers and does not deserve to be rated #1. If anyone should be #1 it should be Huckabee.
October 3rd, 2009 at 8:26 pm
Doug,
I don’t care whether Huck runs or not. Romney already beat him once, so I don’t think Huck can overcome Romney, anyway.
I don’t look for targets to hate, Doug. I just don’t think Huck is presidential material – and he’s certainly not up to snuff for GOP standards. I don’t understand how normal people can overlook his obvious lapses in judgment.
October 3rd, 2009 at 8:27 pm
T/PAW is NOT number 2! As much as I can’t stand her politically Palin has had a good 8 weeks and must be higher than T/PAW.
By the way as I and others have pointed out before Rudy can’t run for President if he runs for Gov so you need to update that bit.
October 3rd, 2009 at 8:27 pm
#8
Martha is just pointing out Huckabees record. If he runs again in 2012′ people should know about it, nothing wrong with well informed voters.
October 3rd, 2009 at 8:54 pm
Bob, Mitt has lost some support with conservatives lately because of cheap shots and lies about Romney care. He’s been quiet at this point, but at the appropriate point in time lies will be exposed, and Mitt will make them look like little children crowded in a corner begging forgiveness and sucking their thumbs.
October 3rd, 2009 at 9:01 pm
#15:
He may rebound but to make him #1 ahead of Huckabee is not right especially if you look at the other PPP numbers and how Huckabee fares against Obama in a one-on-one matchup.
Don’t get me wrong I still believe there is a big 3 and there will be a big 3 two years from now unless one of them does not run.
It’s just that Huckabee should be given the upper hand now. Plus he won the Value Voters’ straw poll.
As you know I am a Palin supporter but first and foremost I pride myself on being objective.
October 3rd, 2009 at 9:10 pm
#15 – One thing that’s been tilting me towards Romney is that he’s comporting himself as an adult. There’s such a surplus of infants in politics today; the last thing we need is on as a nominee. I want to vote for a grown-up (which, let’s face it, ain’t Palin or Huckabee).
Also, as you point out, he’s been patient. He hasn’t gotten into an intemperate snit over Pawlenty’s shots at RomneyCare, which evinces patient and a long-term strategic outlook, and if the 2008 campaign convinced me of anything, it’s that those two things are very, very important. I think Romney’s going to be a much wiser, more savvy candidate this time around. He’ll probably be my choice of the top-tier (I’ll be supporting Johnson simultaneously if he gets in). I’d still love to see Daniels throw his hat into the ring, though.
October 3rd, 2009 at 10:24 pm
Martha said in Post #7 “Huck may be doing all right in the polls at this point. But his record speaks for itself, and will emerge to disqualify him again.”
If Huckabee has such a bad record, why did he receive over 60% of Arkansas’s popular vote during the 2008 primary?
October 3rd, 2009 at 10:58 pm
Romney is clearly number one. Pawlenty will probably eventually emerge as number two, although he isn’t close to that status currently. I would tend to flip Huckabee and Sarah, primarily because it’s more certain that Huckabee, due to his giant ego, will run. It’s not certain at all that Sarah will run.
Anyway, however numbers two through four are allocated, everybody else on this list are unlikely to run, so what’s the point?
October 4th, 2009 at 12:27 am
#5 I do not want the flat tax. The only way the flat tax works at all is in a perfect world. In the real world, a large black market would emerge for virtually everything and only the most pious and honest citizens would end up paying taxes which would lead to the collapse of the flat tax system. We all know the tax code is broken and that it would take a genius versed in both leadership and management to even begin to simplify and fix it, but Romney is far and away the most qualified to do just that.
October 4th, 2009 at 12:56 am
great list max! huck fans always come out here whining about how their guy does in polls 3 1/2 years out, not realizing what counts right NOW is fundraising, team building, and chits collected. besides, when is the last time the establishment backed candidate didn’t win? 1980? yea, and huckabee is no reagan. and if palin runs she will cut in if not overwhelm huck’s support. she would have easily won the values voters poll if she showed up, so a no-show poll doesnt impress me.
basically the top 4 are who we are likely to see run seriously for the nod, with a few others maybe joining the field like pence or gingrich to try and get their name out there or a spot on the ticket. thune is the only one outside the top 4 who could probably join that group, but VP is more likely. jindal would be way up there if he werent running for gov again.
October 4th, 2009 at 1:56 am
The fair tax will never happen, even if Huck became President. And it shouldn’t. I want a better tax system, but think of how much money you have in savings and in other assets. You have already paid income tax on it. If a fair tax (national sales tax) is implimented, it would all be taxed again when you spend it. And think of the recession that would happen when everything we buy goes up 25% and we stop buying until we get accustomed to the new prices.
October 4th, 2009 at 4:43 am
#11 Bob……..Here is what the resulta from the real polls looks like……where you can pick only one person as your choice for president…….not the “favorability polls” where you can say you are favorable about many people.
http://www.solidprinciples.com/blog/?p=908
October 4th, 2009 at 4:47 am
#4..Ikv…people are not looking for an excuse to vote against Pawlenty…..he will get a pass…….the Fred Heads are now “T-paws”………T-Paw is and will become whatever they dream up to feel about him.
I like T-Paw okay, but I don’t like the fact that he could get a GOP pass all the way to the general election before he gets put through the wringer, but hey, he is “One of us”, right?
October 4th, 2009 at 4:54 am
#15..I don’t know IGuy……last time around there were a lot of GOP voters with their hands over their eyes and ears signing repetitious chants in an echo chamber…….
Can we hope it will be differnt this time?
I have my faith placed in the “real people” in “real America”……The ones who are too busy with their lives right now to have more than a summary idea about what is going on with the “potential GOP candidates”.
October 4th, 2009 at 4:59 am
#25…That should be “singing” repetitious chants
October 4th, 2009 at 7:34 am
This is the first rankings that actually look right at this time. The top 4 are going to be the top 4 going into 2012. (maybe not in the same order) Still don’t think any Senator will have a legit chance because governors have been winning the presidency for the Republican party and the Democrat party (excluding Obama) for the past 34 years. (Bush I wasn’t a governor but Reagan’s VP)
October 4th, 2009 at 8:30 am
Post #13, I differ with you, Rudy can be governor and still position himself fof the Potus 2012 nomination. This
will strengthen his credentials as far as security and foreign affairs, as home security cop,as well as health care
reform and his know how of capitalism and the economy. To win the presidency, one has to be a centrist, moderate,
and and therefore appeal to independents, which will determine the outcome of the election. Also since Mccain will
not be in the equation, he will take back these voters that went to him in 2008.
October 4th, 2009 at 8:39 am
Pawlenty sounds like a candidate for 2012
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2009/oct/04/pawlenty-sounds-like-2012-hopeful//print/
October 4th, 2009 at 12:01 pm
#22 Wake up Bobinator! Remember the FairTax gets rid of all other federal taxes. My son’s take-home pay and the prebate will more than cover his house payment. Now I call that a stimulus package.
I’m retired; my wife and I live on S.S. and my savings which has already been tax. Too bad the FairTax wasn’t around when we were younger. We would have been able to save with before tax rather than after tax dollars, and our savings would probably be double of what they are. With the FairTax, at least my children and grandchildren will be able to save and invest any way they choose. For every dollar they are currently able to save they will be able to save $130 with the FairTax.
October 4th, 2009 at 1:20 pm
Granny T. Knock yourself out! I am NOT a ‘rich republican’ but will send money to Free and Strong America PAC.
October 4th, 2009 at 1:46 pm
Spot on, Martha. This is why the Dems wanted huckabee to be the nominee in 2008 and after huck’s vile joke about obama having a gun pointed at him, the Dems WILL WANT HUCK TEN TIMES AS MUCH IN 2012!
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Public_image_of_Mike_Huckabee
Perception from liberals and Democrats
On December 11, 2007 the Drudge Report found out that the highest levels of the Democratic Party told their officials to avoid any criticism of 2008 Republican presidential contender Mike Huckabee, until he would secure the nomination. One Democrat said “He’ll easily be their McGovern, an easy kill.” The last time the Democratic National Committee criticized Huckabee was on March 2nd, 2007.[55]
October 4th, 2009 at 10:54 pm
Underestimate Huckabee at your peril!
October 5th, 2009 at 1:02 am
Yes, huckabee is a snake in the grass…he should never be underestimated. But the buffoon will never be president.
October 5th, 2009 at 3:56 pm
Kid yourself all you want. There will be a libertarian running as a Republican and will beat out all but a couple of those guys you mention. They all split the vote, not much different in any of them. That is why someone outside the box will do alot better than you guys think.