SurveyUSA Virginia Gubernatorial Survey
- Bob McDonnell 55% (54%) [55%]
- Creigh Deeds 41% (42%) [40%]
Among Democrats
- Creigh Deeds 85% (80%) [86%]
- Bob McDonnell 13% (19%) [11%]
Among Moderates
- Creigh Deeds 55% (51%) [52%]
- Bob McDonnell 41% (42%) [44%]
Among Independents
- Bob McDonnell 59% (52%) [60%]
- Creigh Deeds 35% (41%) [35%]
Among Republicans
- Bob McDonnell 89% (88%) [88%]
- Creigh Deeds 10% (7%) [7%]
Among Men
- Bob McDonnell 57% (56%) [61%]
- Creigh Deeds 40% (39%) [36%]
Among Women
- Bob McDonnell 53% (52%) [49%]
- Creigh Deeds 43% (45%) [44%]
Survey of 631 likely voters was conducted September 26-28. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points. Party ID breakdown: 37% (36%) [38%] Republican; 32% (33%) [32%] Democrat; 29% (29%) [29%] Independent. Results from the poll conducted September 4 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted July 27-28 are in brackets.
September 29th, 2009 at 11:02 pm
If 37% of the electorate in Virginia are Republicans, while only 32% are Democrats, our party has been seriously underperforming in the state the last couple of elections.
September 29th, 2009 at 11:17 pm
It appears SUSA is oversampling conservative women.
Here are the results among women from three recent VA polls:
September 29th, 2009 at 11:29 pm
“It appears SUSA is oversampling conservative women.”
Or that more conservative women will comprise a greater percentage of the turnout in November than would be normally the case.
That said, SurveyUSA is probably too favorable to McDonnell whereas PPP(D) is probably too favorable to Deeds.
September 29th, 2009 at 11:34 pm
The SurveyUSA polls always seem like they’re outliers.
September 29th, 2009 at 11:55 pm
Aldo,
SurveyUSA had the best state-by-state track record last November:
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/images/Wall%20Street%20Chart.jpg
September 30th, 2009 at 1:37 am
Not one poll since June has shown Deeds ahead.
September 30th, 2009 at 1:38 am
Are you kidding Aron you compare three (D) “homer” polls to a nation polling firm you’ve got to be kidding I bet McDonnel wins by more than this poll!!!!
September 30th, 2009 at 4:17 am
“Are you kidding Aron you compare three (D) “homer” polls to a nation polling firm you’ve got to be kidding I bet McDonnel wins by more than this poll!!!!” Bingo. Also, women tend to lean a bit more to the Conservative candidate as the race goes on.
September 30th, 2009 at 9:21 am
LutieT/Ohio Joe,
InsiderAdvantage is a Republican-run polling firm. Their CEO, Matt Towery, is a regular contributor to Townhall.
If anyone wants to make a donation to the Aron Goldman Retirement Fund, please feel free to place a wager on McDonnell beating Deeds by 15 points or more, or McDonnell winning the women vote by 10 points.
My future children thank you in advance for your kind contribution.
September 30th, 2009 at 11:42 am
Survey USA gave this a +5 GOP weighting. Virginia went for Obama +7. Hard to take a poll seriously that doesn’t weight with reality. 12 points difference is going to serious warp your poll.
September 30th, 2009 at 12:51 pm
“Survey USA gave this a +5 GOP weighting. Virginia went for Obama +7″ Apples and oranges, but nice try.