There is no better example of the power of political rhetoric then seen through the support Governor Romney has been receiving from moderate Republicans in 2009.
Moderate Republicans are without a leader for the first time since 1964. Governor Romney has successfully attracted the support of moderates, even though he has not changed his 2008 policy positions, but has done so by distancing himself from the talk-radio and Tea Party crowds. So successful has been Governor Romney’s rhetorical reverse, that in many of the 2012 polls conducted in the last 6 months, Governor Romney been able to replace his conservative voters from last years primary campaign who have migrated to Palin and Gingrich, with many of the McCain supporters.
But who are these moderate Republicans and will they continue to support Governor Romney, even when a true moderate enters the 2012 race and who is this likely candidate to carry the moderate banner?
Moderate Republicans are;
In 2008, moderates were weary of supporting Governor Romney’s campaign, as his rhetoric focused on attracting conservative voters. Moderates were aware of Romney’s narrow economic and pragmatic governance of Massachusetts, but he had shown little interest in competing with Senator McCain for these voters. It was a massive strategic failure that cost him the nomination.
With Hunstman and Crist in doubtful positions for a run at 2012, expect to see a politically experienced candidate emerge from a blue State or large urban center to carry the Republican center. The campaign will mirror that of the 2000 McCain campaign, offering moderate positions on climate change, abortion, immigration and health care reform. This candidate may publically distance him/herself from the religious right and campaign on a platform of fiscal and foreign policy conservatism, highlighting their career successes in promoting free market principles. The composition of this candidate’s campaign will be anti-populist.
The candidate in question is not one currently discussed in the media and blogosphere, but has probably already made the decision to seek the nomination. In 2010, keep and eye on the talk-show circuit and see what names are re-appearing from the 1990′s. This may be an early signal on who the candidate is.
These are some of the possibilities;
Despite changes in voter registration and a reinvigorated libertarian and conservative base, moderate Republicans and independents continue to be a powerful voting block in primary campaigns. In 2000, Senator McCain unexpectedly became their candidate of choice and I predict a similar movement will occur in 2012 if the candidate field is less crowded then is currently projected.
The decisions and consequences of President Obama’s administration over the next 3 years may also alter the dynamics of the 2012 primary campaign and the opportunity for a moderate candidate. If President Obama continues to ignore the abortion and equal marriage issues and moves to the left on fiscal policy and to the right on foreign policy (more troops for the Afghan mission and a harder line on Iran’s nuclear program), expect taxes, regulation and the deficit to become the signature issues of 2012, allowing for a moderate candidate, with a pro-growth economic record to emerge.
A viable moderate candidate could once again push Governor Romney to the political right, steal away the support Governor Huckabee is currently receiving from women and youth and lengthen the campaign to where a nominee is not determined until the second super-Tuesday.
_________________________________________________________
Kristofer Lorelli can be contacted at lorville@rogers.com, on Facebook and Twitter/Kris_Lorelli
September 26th, 2009 at 4:52 pm
As the expression goes it takes two to tango. Mitt may want to attract “McCain-type supporters” but do they want to play ball with him.
Yes, McCain is pro-life and so is Mitt now. Will moderates want to embrace someone who is pro-choice and more liberal towards gay rights.
Can Mitt really distance himself from the “religious right” and become a “liberal Mormon”?
Who will compete with Romney for the “moderate” mantle?
As I understand it moderates at present make up about 25% of the GOP; even if Romney gets most of these votes can he still win with his favorables at a low ebb with conservatives and Republicans?
September 26th, 2009 at 5:50 pm
Kris if you are not totally on board the Mitt Express then kindly hop off the train. None of the people you mentioned have a chance in 2012.
September 26th, 2009 at 5:50 pm
“aesthetic consequentialism”
wtf? Aesthetic?
September 26th, 2009 at 6:12 pm
I’m not sure you can call Pataki a “moderate.” He’s sort of in-between moderate and conservative and even has a libertarian streak on drug legalization.
September 26th, 2009 at 6:30 pm
Kristofer:
Romney isn’t distancing himself from the tea parties, he believes in the power of their voices. Romney’s been on Sean, Hewitt, and Lars Larson show….But most politicians are staying away from red meat throwers like Rush, Levine, and especially Beck. They are in the mood for throwing people out of the Party if they don’t fall in line with their thinking.
How did the Republican party get to be such a mess… throwing people out of the party is not up to radio talk show hosts, it is up to the voters of their states to choose who they want their leaders to be… Let them start their own party.
Yeah, Romney does think there’s room for moderate and right of center republicans in the party, but that doesn’t mean he’s leaving his conservative roots. Reagan was accepting of moderates and right of center Republicans, and even had them in his administration….He also knew the value of people with different opinions…What leader could say with confidence that the right decision was made, when everybody thinks like everyone else, and there was no different opinions considered.
September 26th, 2009 at 6:40 pm
Romney makes nice with rivals
http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/60447-romney-makes-nice-with-rivals
September 26th, 2009 at 6:42 pm
Wouldn’t Rudy be considered as a moderate….if he ran he would do better in 2012. The GOP had gone so far to the right in 08′ he really didn’t have a chance.
September 26th, 2009 at 6:43 pm
Romney a victim in health care debate
The national health care reform debate is far from settled, but one of the casualties is already clear: former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney.
http://dyn.politico.com/printstory.cfm?uuid=F77074F4-18FE-70B2-A8B9853C95EE454C
September 26th, 2009 at 6:49 pm
Crist predicts Carter-esque loss for Obama
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2009/09/26/crist-predicts-carter-esque-loss-for-obama/
Copy Florida, governor tells Michigan GOP
Michigan can look to Florida as a model for how less spending and taxing can fix a sagging economy, Florida Gov. Charlie Crist told a record setting crowd of 2,100 people Friday night at the start of the 28th biennial Republican Leadership Conference on Mackinac Island.
http://www.detnews.com/article/20090926/POLITICS02/909260331/1024/POLITICS03/Copy-Florida–governor-tells-Michigan-GOP
Minn. gov knocks Obama health care plan in Mich.
Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty warned Michigan Republicans of the dangers of President Barack Obama’s health care proposal and urged them to appeal to blue-collar voters with a GOP message of personal and fiscal responsibility.
http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/chi-ap-mi-gopconference-paw,0,4713071.story
Minn. gov.: GOP should recruit in urban areas
Poor urban areas are the Grand Old Party’s recruiting grounds of the future, Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty said today at state Republicans’ biennial leadership conference on Mackinac Island.
http://www.detnews.com/article/20090926/POLITICS02/909260382/1024/POLITICS03/Minn.-gov.–GOP-should-recruit-in-urban-areas
Minnesota’s Pawlenty defends national politicking
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2009/09/26/minnesotas-pawlenty-defends-national-politicking/
For Some Republicans, Their Party’s Seal of Approval Doesn’t Impress
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/09/27/us/politics/27hill.html?_r=1&hpw=&pagewanted=print
Ron Paul’s speech, with Michele Bachmann
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YleZcGvr5UQ&feature=player_embedded
The Lost Middle Ground
Bipartisanship is now studied as a relic of a bygone era, much the way paleontologists pore over dinosaur bones.
by Charlie Cook
http://www.nationaljournal.com/njmagazine/cr_20090926_1178.php
Democrats seem to be losing the battle for enthusiasm
By Michael Barone
http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/blogs/beltway-confidential/Democrats-seem-to-be-losing-the-battle-for-enthusiasm-61465712.html
New York Times to Paterson: You’re outta here
http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/blogs/beltway-confidential/New-York-Times-to-Paterson-Youre-outta-here-61780052.html
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/09/26/opinion/26sat1.html?pagewanted=print
September 26th, 2009 at 6:49 pm
#8: Headline article on Politico? Ouch.
September 26th, 2009 at 7:40 pm
“Are pro-choice, or are pro-lifers who are supportive of Roe.”
How can someone be pro-life and support Roe? Roe makes abortion a fundamental Constitutional right even though it appears nowhere in the Constitution.
You can’t be “pro-life” and believe that some humans don’t have a right to life. That is just logically bankrupt.
September 26th, 2009 at 8:03 pm
Mitt Romney isn’t pro-life. He is not conservative. Romney won’t get the nominee in 2012. He is done! That is exactly what happened to him when he lost the primary election in 2008. He is a liberal just like John McCain. The conservatives will not vote for Romney again. I believe the mainstream news media want Romney to run again. If Romney does get the nominee in 2012, the Republican Party will lose the election and we will have Obama back in the White House. I would like to see Palin run in 2012 and she is a true conservative.
September 26th, 2009 at 8:09 pm
Actually, there is a difference between being pro-life and your opinion of if Roe is Constitutional. If you believe that the court could find a right as in Roe, then it is possible.
I however am pro-life. But even if I wasn’t, I find Roe flawed because it was invented and can be no where found in the constition. Abortion should be a State issue regardless if you are pro-life or pro-choice.
September 26th, 2009 at 8:09 pm
Interesting. Romney is positioning himself much like Bush 2000 on the center-right, and the assumption both then and now is that both would have to make peace with the far-right. But that wasn’t true in 2000, as Bush’s only major challenge actually came from his LEFT, which sent the far-right flocking to him and marginalized guys like Keyes and Bauer.
So I suppose there’s the possibility that Romney will be such a good establishment candidate and Obama will be such a good leftist that conservatives won’t really have a problem with Mitt by 2012 and that lots of independents will flock to the GOP primaries, giving rise to a candidate of the Republican Left. But I just don’t know who could fit the bill. Ridge is too dull to mobilize anyone, Bloomberg is more like a pro-business Democrat than a McCain 2000 Republican, and the Snowe/Crist set is just too…Rockefeller. But I suppose it’s possible that there’s someone out there who could run as a government reformer and deficit hawk who could tap into centrist concerns regarding the intemperance of the tea partiers and our continued involvement in the Middle East.
September 26th, 2009 at 8:11 pm
anonymous we know you are really a liberal that’s why you lie about Romney. You fear him.
September 26th, 2009 at 8:16 pm
I am know here. I clicked on the photo of Sarah Palin and got an article about Mitt. What is up with that?
September 26th, 2009 at 8:17 pm
What are you talking about, as a staunch conservative, I think he was the most conservative candidate in 2008, and you will be hard pressed to give an example where he was not. Especially when it comes to Financial issues. Certainly his record is more way conservative than Huckabee, and I can give example after example where Huckabee actions where much more liberal than Romney’s expecially when it came law enforcement and taxes. The only position you statement would have any merit is when Romney said he would not change the Abortion laws as governor of Massachutes.. However, he veto bill after bill that tried to expand Roe in Mass.
September 26th, 2009 at 8:21 pm
Romney got the higher conservative vote last election. He is a consevative for many reasons.
September 26th, 2009 at 8:27 pm
Jan,
Because clicking on her pic leads you to every front page post under which the author has included her name as a file, as Kris did with this article.
September 26th, 2009 at 8:28 pm
I’m tired of rehashing the MassCare issue, but you look at the people who are against it and you can see an agenda there. It’s an old story that Politico is trying to stir up again on a slow news day. The others are Libertarians and I could care less what they think, they don’t like anything.
Huckabee and Pawlenty, to me is another story, they can give their view on it and offer criticism and not like it, but because there is just as many opinions in favor of it, they were choosing to use the opinions against it….That shows me that they are not being fair or honest on such an important issue and are lying for their own political benefit, and because there isn’t a primary going on, it is nothing but a political smear against a fellow republican… They should have been slamming Obama’s reform bill, that is what is going to be affecting us directly… I would have a hard time voting for either of them if they became the nominee because of the fact they lied about it.
Because the people of MA. seem to like MassCare, and when the ugly realities of ObamaCare become reality and were all lining up for our health cards, people will take an honest look at MassCare both what worked and what didn’t work, and they will see it wasn’t so bad after all.
Pawlenty and Huckabee took a gamble with their criticism so early in the health care debate, they put a face on it by being so critical and maybe lost some Romney supporters like me who knew they were lying…… I’m stumped as to why they both went after Romney so early, that didn’t make a lot of sense to me.
September 26th, 2009 at 8:36 pm
I’m personally not sure that moderates won’t simply divide up between T-Paw and Romeney – however, I do see the point about an opening for a true hard-core moderate. However, I think the list you provided misses the mark. Whitman is too combative and wastes too much time antagonizing conservatives (a la Specter in 1996), Smith will have difficulty breaking through as a neophyte, Ridge is associated with Bush, and Bloomberg left the GOP (plus he’s more liberal thn moderate in my opinion)
I thin if you want a real modeate threat, you need…
(drumroll)
SENATOR SUSAN COLlINS
Think about it this way. Collins is a true moderate whith a good reputaton and solid experience. Plus she’s a New Englander who could play well in New Hampshire.
I’m also speaking from some experience – I do Capitol Hill reporting for my day job, and I’ve been to a number of Collins press conferences. I don’t always agree with her, bbut I always find her likeable, entertaining, and compelling. She’s a true brige-builder, she has no real bad blood with conservatives (alothough they don’t really like her), and she has a very charming, down-to-earth New England folksiness about her.
I don’t know if she could be talked into risking her Senatorial reputation for a long-shot run, but I think she could win a pretty big following if she decided to go for it.
September 26th, 2009 at 8:37 pm
oops mispelled in the all caps – C-O-L-L-I-N-S
September 26th, 2009 at 8:40 pm
I’m watching Obama giving a speech on FOX, it’s frightening
September 26th, 2009 at 8:43 pm
http://race42008.com/2009/09/24/poll-watch-ppp-d-2012-presidential-survey-6/
September 26th, 2009 at 8:55 pm
Well with huckabee, he NEVER misses a chance to slam Romney. In the Politico story, huck is quoted AGAIN regarding the Mass. $50 abortions even though he knows Romney had no say in that. huck’s a snake in the grass.
Romney doesn’t go around slamming huckabee, but the preacher constantly does this to his fellow Republican…go figure. I guess it’s a maturely thing. Mitt’s got it; huck doesn’t. And I believe that huckabee is insanely jealous of Romney’s intelligence, handsomeness, class, and hard-earned fortune. huck’s so pathetic…
September 26th, 2009 at 9:08 pm
#25
Shelby:
I think your right on all areas. Huckabee by his own admission had a tough time in life. But so does everybody, including Romney, all people handle things different but Romney just made it look easy……..
Huckabee knows the $50 abortion was put in there after Romney was gone….but he keeps on….Huckabee is obsessed, very sly, and better at double talk than Bill Clinton.
September 26th, 2009 at 9:11 pm
In other words, Huckabee is plan dis-honest. So much for being the Christian Candidate.
September 26th, 2009 at 11:15 pm
If it comes down to Sarah and Mitt in the primaries, it could be a replay of 2000 with Sarah playing the role of Bush and Mitt playing the role of McCain. You will remember that Bush won Iowa and S.C. while McCain won N.H. and Michigan. Although the comparison is not perfect, it will be interesting to see if history repeats and Romney’s McCain is beaten by Sarah’s Bush in IA and S.C. The question then becomes can Mitt win without S.C. and can Sarah lose with a victory in S.C.
September 26th, 2009 at 11:27 pm
#28:
Interesting analogy JA Pruce, but it does ignore Mike Huckabee. If there had been a legitimate candidate to the right of Bush in 2000, McCain may have won with the other candidate draining enough votes off Bush to allow McCain to wriggle in.
Romney has the delicate balancing act of trying to win enough of the conservatives and prevent any candidate from emerging as a moderate alternative to a Romney-Huckabee-Palin brawl. As a Giuliani-McCain Republican, I’m still neutral in the race and none of the Big Three are extremely appealing. There needs to be an alternative to those three.
September 27th, 2009 at 12:06 am
Romney is far from a moderate, but he has a moderate temperament, and his incredible success and polish, as well as his intellect and relative maturity, cause moderates in the party to gravitate to him.
Mitt is as far to the right, and arguably more so, than Palin or Huckabee, but a lot of grass roots conservatives don’t see Mitt as one of them—and culturally and temperamentally they are right. He doesn’t have a populist bone in his body. But what he DOES have is the ability to govern better than either of them—combined with the ability to win them over during the course of a campaign by instilling confidence that he, better than the others, can solve America’s problems.
September 27th, 2009 at 12:11 am
Check out who’s on Obama’s enemies list according to the Globe,
http://www.globemagazine.com/story/400
September 27th, 2009 at 12:22 am
One thing I disagree with is that pragmatists are not populists. If Crist and McCain aren’t populist types, driven on media appeal, high favorables etc to give them a strong tailwind, then who is? On the contrary, it’s the ideologues that aren’t populists. To hold a strong ideology tends to do oneself a disservice in that realm as you don’t have the flexibility to reach many of the electorate with your aims. Sure, there are exceptions like Reagan, but he had the unique gift to make idealism a popular appeal. There are almost no conservatives nowadays that can do that.
Like Jonathan said for himself, I’m willing to bet that most of the massive Giuliani-McCain bloc has yet to find a new home, and their power is only going to increase by pulling in more independents to the vote in 2012 without Obama on the ballot for the Democrats. If none of the current crop can work up much support there because they are off fighting their fringe battles while ignoring the heart of the party, the chance is ripe for another candidate (Pawlenty) to walk in and walk away with it.
If history tells us anything, our party will nominate a candidate based on the performance of the incumbent President. If Obama is looking like Carter, the hardcore conservatives are going to be pretty hard to trump in the primary and will elevate Palin, assuming she’s refined her direction somewhat. What I see more likely is that Obama remains at about 50-50 with some minor movements, as the economy will be marginally better. That’s going to favor candidates like Pawlenty and Romney, but Romney will need to turn a more populist bend than he’s done in past times. Otherwise he will be a Kerry, losing to a beatable incumbent simply because he can’t get anyone to get passionate for him. Like Kris said, Romney may in fact be betting on this outcome, hence the distance he’s putting between himself and the “conservative crusader” message from ’08.
If Romney aligns himself well enough, I could support him. Otherwise, I think Pawlenty is the best fit for what we will need.
September 27th, 2009 at 12:52 am
MPC,
You’re citing McCain and Crist as populists?? Huckabee and Palin are populists. Pat Buchanan was a populist. George Wallace, certainly. McCain and Crist are the quintessential moderates of the party.
September 27th, 2009 at 5:56 am
Romney will be the moderate candidate in 2012 and will pick up the McCain voters. Palin and Huck will compete for the conservatives (although Palin will be the true candidate of the Right as Huck is actually less conservative than Mitt in the fiscal arena). Rudy probably won’t run, but if he does it will be as a libertarian rather than a moderate!
September 27th, 2009 at 7:38 am
“Romney isn’t distancing himself from the tea parties,” While Mr. Romney may not be anti-Tea Party, he is viewed as the least Pro-Tea Party person. Mr. Romney and most elements of his camp are not exactly doing a lot to link themseleves with the Tea Party movement. That could be a problem and it could be part of a variety of reasons why less than half of all Conservatives have a favorable impression of him right now.
September 27th, 2009 at 8:09 am
If you recall, Mitt praised them in one of his latest speech, calling them patriots. The tea part I went to was dominated by pro-Romney people in attendance.
September 27th, 2009 at 8:11 am
There is no “movement”.
About 10 million people marched against the Iraq War in early 2003 and “we” didn’t care before we supported GWB. Now 70,000 is a “movement”. Don’t make me laugh.
September 27th, 2009 at 8:17 am
MPC (or anybody), how is Mitt running any different than last time? I can see he may emphasize things a little differently, but I don’t know of any position changes at all, do you? Mitt will get a lot of moderate and independent vote based on sheer competency, not on him being more moderate in view.
And how is Palin known as being so darned conservative? She is not doing well with those attending church. She was very pro amnesty…I could show plenty of links with her words on that. She grew government by leaps and bounds. sure, the budget still has a surplus, but that’s only because they brought tons of money in off of the ‘would be’ oil company profits. Most conservative don’t quit 40% through the completion of a job. She admits herself that she contemplated abortion when she found out her child would have special needs. She is married to a guy who for 7 years straight aligned with a group favoring succession from this great USA. I just don’t see how she gets this label of being such a conservative candidate.
September 27th, 2009 at 10:28 am
http://www.sarahpac.com/
September 27th, 2009 at 10:52 am
“About 10 million people marched against the Iraq War in early 2003″ Not even in your country did that many people show up for a protest against the Iraq war. If you are going to state that there was such an anti-war protest where 10 million Americans showed up, not only are you nutty as bed bugs. You make bed bug look brilliant.
September 27th, 2009 at 11:09 am
#24…..As we all know, favorables are not the same thing as “Who would you vote for for President”.
This is what is looks like when people have to choose ONE person to vote for for President, not just say whether they like certain people.
http://www.solidprinciples.com/blog/?cat=244
September 27th, 2009 at 11:29 am
Yes you are absolutely correct Jerald that at the end of the day, we count actual votes for the candidates and we do not take favorability rating. However, I respectfully submit that favorability ratings are a good indicator (not perfect) as to how undecided voters might break out. Yes, the cookie could start to crumble in a different manner, unforeseen events have yet to unfold and we do not know for sure you is running and thus the dynamics of the race could change again. However, we are fooling ourselves to totally dismiss favorability ratings.
September 27th, 2009 at 12:39 pm
True. Here are the results among Conservatives from the same PPP poll that’s cited in #24:
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_National_9241023.pdf
September 27th, 2009 at 12:43 pm
DaveG,
the only person i feel can challenge romney from his left in the mccain 2000 fashion would be ambassador jon huntsman, but i dont see him leaving his new position to take on romney.
September 27th, 2009 at 12:45 pm
as for people who say romneycare is too big of a hurdle to overcome obviously forget that bush 41 was pro-choice until about 5 minutes before the gop convention, and that reagan was a new deal democrat who voted for FDR four times.
September 27th, 2009 at 1:06 pm
What the favorables tell you for the purposes of a primary is really the percentage of conservatives and Republicans that are going to be open to voting for you in a primary.
While a conservative/Republican who doesn’t have a favorable opinion of you will likely vote for you in a general election matchup with Obama, it’s unlikely they would vote for you in a primary.
So I look at Romney’s 46% favorable rating among conservatives and 50% favorable rating among Republicans as the percentage of conservatives and Republicans, respectively, that are going to be open to voting for him in a primary.
September 27th, 2009 at 5:47 pm
Yeah like there was only one day of marches OJ. You are as dumb as the other OJ.
September 27th, 2009 at 6:50 pm
Ah, no heath, no are the one who is a dumb drunken buffoon and a liar. Don’t come here and give us your liberal anti-war anti-Tea-Party scrap. Hello earth to Romneyite, there was more than one tea party. So don’t bother lecturing us about how there was more than one anti-war protest where freak like you attended. At least twice this year, the Tea-party movement gather more than one million Americans across the country and you claim that only 70,000 Americans believe in fiscal responsibility. You are the foolish one. GET LOST!