PPP (D) 2012 Presidential Survey
- Barack Obama 48% [47%] (48%)
- Mike Huckabee 41% [44%] (42%)
- Barack Obama 48% [47%] (49%)
- Mitt Romney 39% [40%] (40%)
- Barack Obama 53% [52%] (51%)
- Sarah Palin 38% [38%] (43%)
- Barack Obama 50%
- Jeb Bush 37%
Among Independents
- Barack Obama 46% [41%] (42%)
- Mitt Romney 35% [41%] (43%)
- Barack Obama 46% [42%] (44%)
- Mike Huckabee 33% [41%] (43%)
- Barack Obama 52% [50%] (47%)
- Sarah Palin 35% [34%] (41%)
- Barack Obama 51%
- Jeb Bush 32%
Note: In 2008, John McCain received 44% of the Independent vote (29% of the electorate). In 2004, George W. Bush received 48% of the Independent vote.
Among Republicans
- Mike Huckabee 77% [80%] (76%)
- Barack Obama 13% [11%] (12%)
- Mitt Romney 72% [74%] (71%)
- Barack Obama 14% [11%] (18%)
- Jeb Bush 70%
- Barack Obama 16%
- Sarah Palin 70% [74%] (79%)
- Barack Obama 18% [15%] (14%)
Note: In 2008, John McCain received 90% of the Republican vote (32% of the electorate). In 2004, George W. Bush received 93% of the Republican vote.
Among Moderates
- Barack Obama 58% [56%] (58%)
- Mike Huckabee 31% [32%] (32%)
- Barack Obama 57% [57%] (56%)
- Mitt Romney 30% [30%] (32%)
- Barack Obama 63%
- Jeb Bush 23%
- Barack Obama 68% [63%] (62%)
- Sarah Palin 23% [25%] (31%)
Note: In 2008, John McCain received 39% of the Moderate vote (44% of the electorate). In 2004, George W. Bush received 45% of the Moderate vote.
Among Men
- Mike Huckabee 47% [49%] (49%)
- Barack Obama 44% [43%] (43%)
- Mitt Romney 46% [44%] (46%)
- Barack Obama 44% [44%] (46%)
- Barack Obama 48%
- Jeb Bush 42%
- Barack Obama 50% [48%] (47%)
- Sarah Palin 41% [41%] (47%)
Note: In 2008, John McCain received 48% of the Male vote (47% of the electorate). In 2004, George W. Bush received 55% of the Male vote.
Among Women
- Barack Obama 50% [50%] (53%)
- Mike Huckabee 36% [39%] (36%)
- Barack Obama 52% [50%] (51%)
- Mitt Romney 34% [36%] (35%)
- Barack Obama 55% [56%] (54%)
- Sarah Palin 36% [35%] (40%)
- Barack Obama 52%
- Jeb Bush 34%
Note: In 2008, John McCain received 43% of the Female vote (53% of the electorate). In 2004, George W. Bush received 48% of the Female vote.
Among Voters Age 18-29
- Barack Obama 53% [51%] (54%)
- Mike Huckabee 35% [40%] (40%)
- Barack Obama 58% [58%] (57%)
- Mitt Romney 33% [28%] (37%)
- Barack Obama 59%
- Jeb Bush 29%
- Barack Obama 67% [60%] (60%)
- Sarah Palin 27% [28%] (40%)
Note: In 2008, John McCain received 32% of the 18-29 vote (18% of the electorate). In 2004, George W. Bush received 45% of the 18-29 vote.
Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}
- Mike Huckabee 38% [45%] (42%) / 36% [28%] (33%) {+2%}
- Mitt Romney 33% [37%] (37%) / 38% [34%] (37%) {-5%}
- Sarah Palin 37% [40%] (47%) / 55% [49%] (45%) {-18%}
- Jeb Bush 22% / 45% {-23%}
Among Independents
- Mitt Romney 38% [40%] (45%) / 33% [31%] (28%) {+5%}
- Mike Huckabee 32% [48%] (44%) / 38% [24%] (30%) {-6%}
- Jeb Bush 19% / 42% {-23%}
- Sarah Palin 33% [37%] (45%) / 59% [49%] (43%) {-26%}
Among Republicans
- Mike Huckabee 70% [66%] (66%) / 12% [13%] (19%) {+58%}
- Sarah Palin 69% [72%] (76%) / 22% [16%] (19%) {+47%}
- Mitt Romney 50% [52%] (54%) / 21% [18%] (25%) {+29%}
- Jeb Bush 43% / 17% {+26%}
Among Conservatives
- Sarah Palin 69% [68%] (73%) / 22% [20%] (18%) {+47%}
- Mike Huckabee 59% [61%] (65%) / 15% [13%] (16%) {+44%}
- Mitt Romney 46% [49%] (53%) / 20% [22%] (20%) {+26%}
- Jeb Bush 40% / 17% {+23%}
Among Moderates
- Mitt Romney 32% [34%] (33%) / 41% [36%] (39%) {-9%}
- Mike Huckabee 29% [40%] (34%) / 43% [30%] (36%) {-14%}
- Jeb Bush 13% / 56% {-43%}
- Sarah Palin 20% [29%] (33%) / 71% [58%] (58%) {-51%}
Among Voters Age 18-29
- Mitt Romney 36% [32%] (33%) / 39% [34%] (39%) {-3%}
- Mike Huckabee 26% [45%] (34%) / 50% [19%] (36%) {-24%}
- Jeb Bush 18% / 52% {-34%}
- Sarah Palin 30% [30%] (33%) / 67% [53%] (58%) {-37%}
Survey of 621 voters was conducted September 18-21 . The margin of error is +/- 3.9 percentage points. Party ID breakdown: 40% [41%] Democrat; 35% [35%] Republican; 25% [24%] Independent. Results from the poll conducted August 14-17 are in brackets. Results from the poll conducted July 15-16 are in parentheses.
Inside the numbers:
Nineteen percent (19%) of moderate Republicans said they voted for Barack Obama against John McCain last fall.
When we asked them to look toward 2012, 34% said they’d vote for Obama against Sarah Palin, 31% against Jeb Bush, 21% against Mike Huckabee, and 20% against Mitt Romney.
September 24th, 2009 at 10:48 am
No one will report on this poll in the media because Huck is leading the poll for the 6th straight month. Everyone likes to discount Huck, but they do so at their own peril. What suprised me in this poll is that everyone’s numbers went down against Obama compared to last month. Are they polling more Dems or what?
September 24th, 2009 at 10:50 am
Aside from the stability of their numbers and the idiocy of polling “voters” instead of “likely voters”, the really interesting facet of this are Jeb’s numbers. It would appear that the stigma of being a Bush isn’t all that noticeable any more. We may have written him off prematurely, and while I wouldn’t ditch Mitt to jump on his bandwagon, I wouldn’t be unhappy if he were to get the nod.
September 24th, 2009 at 11:06 am
PPI will always favor Huckabee. Other national polls give Romney and Palin better numbers. From my perspective, Palin does best with Republicans and Conservatives and worst with everyone else including Independents. Palin never does better in one on one matches in any poll. Romney and Huckabee will continue to battle each other, but Pawlenty’s entry and Palin’s speeches will make the race so unpredictable.
September 24th, 2009 at 11:06 am
Hey, this means something. If we combine these 4 into 1 we can beat Obama.
September 24th, 2009 at 11:13 am
What is important to note regarding this poll is that two of our “Big Three” keep the incumbent president under 50% 8 months into his administration.
September 24th, 2009 at 11:16 am
KWN,
PPP also notes the following:
Bush Curse?
http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2009/09/bush-curse.html
September 24th, 2009 at 11:19 am
Also, nearly all the undecideds (especially in the case of Palin) are voters who disapprove of or have no opinion of Obama’s performance.
So, the remaining undecideds would heavily break towards all three. Obviously in Palin’s case, she’ll need to get Obama under 50% for this to matter and that’ll likely only happen when Obama’s approval slips to around 47-48% on average, instead of the 50-51% average that he is holding right now.
September 24th, 2009 at 11:27 am
Not sure what this poll says. For example
Romney’s Favorability polling among Independents dropped 2 points . Huckabee’s favorabilty polling among Independents dropped 16 points ??? Yet Romney dropped 11 points with Independents against Obama and Huckabee dropped 12 points? What is this math ????
September 24th, 2009 at 11:29 am
TB #6,
That is shocking, but not all that surprising. Know what I mean?
September 24th, 2009 at 11:37 am
KWN,
Heh heh, yeah.
September 24th, 2009 at 11:44 am
Dave,
“It would appear that the stigma of being a Bush isn’t all that noticeable any more.”
So why does he have worse favorables than Palin?
September 24th, 2009 at 11:51 am
Meme bustin’ for the Rombots:
Meme #1:
Only Romney can unite all conservatives!!!!
Survey says:
Palin is +47 favorable among conservatives. Huck is +44, and the Savior of Conservatism is +26, barely ahead of the Bush name.
Meme #2:
Vast legions of Republicans will NEEEEEEEEEEEEEEVVVVVVVVVVVVEEEEEEEEER vote for Huck!!!!!!!
Survey says:
Huck does 8 points better among Republicans against Obama than Romney does.
Meme #3:
Only Romney can win Independents!!!!!!!!
Survey Says:
Romney runs only 2 points better than Huck among Independents against Obama. This meme isn’t quite as dumb as the others, but it’s still within the MoE.
September 24th, 2009 at 11:52 am
Glad to see Huckabee still doing the best against Obama.
He will just continue focusing on the issues, presenting his ideas to the folks, and going around the beltway elite that discount him.
September 24th, 2009 at 11:57 am
Romney + Huckabee continue to be the only two viable candidates.
Palin does horrible as always.
Nothing new. *yawn*
(Also, I want to see Dick Cheney polled against Obama next month, even if only to make Sarah feel better)
September 24th, 2009 at 12:00 pm
Weird poll this month. How to Huckabee, Romney, and Palin all lose favorablity ground among conservatives?
Jeb doesn’t have a shot…only 40% favoribilty among conservatives. The conservative base is leery of another Bush after all the promises of fiscal sanity that didn’t come to pass with G.W.
September 24th, 2009 at 12:07 pm
Mr. Romney took a big hit this month among Conservatives.
September 24th, 2009 at 12:12 pm
Why isn’t Palin feeling good Kevin? She should be considering that she just gave a Hong Kong speech that netted her a check of six figures.
September 24th, 2009 at 12:12 pm
David,
“Jeb doesn’t have a shot…only 40% favoribilty among conservatives. The conservative base is leery of another Bush after all the promises of fiscal sanity that didn’t come to pass with G.W.”
It would be interesting to know how many are thinking “not going to try another Bush,” and how many are simply confusing the two.
Either way, you’re right. JEB has no shot.
September 24th, 2009 at 12:27 pm
Ohio,
Yes, I would say that a nationally known Republican with high name ID that is viewed favorably by only 46% of conservatives has a very big problem.
If that number doesn’t improve, I’d consider it fatal in the Primary. I think it severly lowers his ceiling, but maybe Romney can ride liberals and moderates to the nomination.
September 24th, 2009 at 12:27 pm
I have always said, “‘Favorable/Unfavorable’ means little in the grand scheme of things”. The question that counts is who are you going to vote for? That is the bottom line.
With that in mind, I am with KWN. Eight months into Obama’s term, and two of our leading candidates have the incumbent under 50%. What is more, it has been that way for at least three months now.
Another source of optimism is that this is a poll of “voters” not “likely voters”. Democrats and liberals are always over counted in such polls.
Things should get really interesting next year.
September 24th, 2009 at 12:28 pm
My guess is that it is still higher than John McCain’s was…
September 24th, 2009 at 12:33 pm
This is not a meme, you are stretching.
This is a concern for Rombots. Something is not getting across.
This is not a meme, you are stretching.
Survey says:
Huck does 8 points better among Republicans against Obama than Romney does.
This would be expected from conservatives, but Republicans as a whole should be a concern for the Rombots.
I think the Rombot notion was that Romney would do better than others in getting the moderate and independent vote. Still true to some degree.
September 24th, 2009 at 12:36 pm
MWS,
What surprised me was that Jeb was somewhat competitive with the so-called big 3. I had been assuming that in a presidential matchup his name would be toxic waste. The fact that it isn’t is a victory for justice, given that Jeb was one of the most dedicated and competent governors in the history of the nation. As with Romney, he would be a great president—and I don’t use the word ‘great’ loosely. Had Jeb not lost his first run for the governorship we would have gotten the right Bush instead of the wrong one in 2000.
September 24th, 2009 at 12:51 pm
Republican Party’s Image Improves; Still Trails Democrats’
http://www.gallup.com/poll/123161/Republican-Party-Image-Improves-Trails-Democrats.aspx?version=print
September 24th, 2009 at 12:52 pm
this just proves that Huck and Mitt and the only two who stand a chance to beat Obama.
with all the bad that Obama has done we still only have these two who keep him under 50%.
Palin who I think has potential isnt getting anywhere near obama, and pawlenty still isnt a splash. Jeb would be great but the name dooms him, which is unfortunate.
no, at this time it comes down to these two, we will see if it holds true, but I might add that if obama is in free fall come 2012 then whomever the GOP puts up could take him out.
September 24th, 2009 at 12:52 pm
CalState,
“This is not a meme, you are stretching.”
I don’t know how long you’ve been here, but since the evening of Nov. 4, 2008, I have tallied 4,609,378,122 times a Rombot has said that Romney is the only one who can unite conservatives or that Huck will lose a huge hunk of the Republican party.
September 24th, 2009 at 12:55 pm
aron,
in reading #24- why is it the the extreme conservatives dont like the GOP? I mean do they really think that 3rd party is a viable option? are they just too emotionally attached to an issue to see that the GOP is far closer to their views the the DEMS ever will be?
I just dont understand a mindset that says only 55% of conservatives have a favorable view of the GOP.
September 24th, 2009 at 12:55 pm
KWN,
“My guess is that it is still higher than John McCain’s was…”
Boy, I don’t know. But I bet Aron can get us the numbers faster than Jimmy Carter can say “racist!”
September 24th, 2009 at 1:00 pm
MWS.#26,
Who’s the “big hunk of the Republican Party” that Huckabee lost?
September 24th, 2009 at 1:02 pm
corep,
“I just dont understand a mindset that says only 55% of conservatives have a favorable view of the GOP.”
I do. For the most part, politicians are egotistical, self-serving liars who would sell their mother for money, sex, or power (sometimes all three).
But to be more specific, there is the explosion of descretionary spending under Bush, Medicare Part D, Bush’s huge deficits, a rather expensive foreign policy that has us bogged down in Iraq, softness on illegal immigration, failure to reform Soc. Sec. when they had the chance, hardly any actions to protect life when they had the chance, etc… etc…..
Not that conservative like the Dems, of course, but you can see where many of them would say “a pox on both your houses” or at least hold their noses while they punched the ‘R.’
September 24th, 2009 at 1:03 pm
marK,
“Who’s the “big hunk of the Republican Party” that Huckabee lost?”
Martha, Knickers, and apparently, nobody else.
September 24th, 2009 at 1:04 pm
mws-
i agree the lower # among conservatives is a concern. its at 46% down from 49%, not a significant difference though.
all of them took hits among moderates and only Huckabee went up among republicans in general.
it still comes down to making headway with young voters and women. The young voters I dont see the GOP getting too many back in 2012, so we hope thye arent as energized to vote this time around. as to women the longer the unemployment stays high the greater chance it starts to hit closer to home and they see the negative impact of Obamas policies.
if we turn those two then Huck and Mitt are viable, Pwlenty would be too.
September 24th, 2009 at 1:06 pm
marK,
I understand your question now.
I’m supporting Pawlenty, so if you interpret literally, yes, I admit, I am speaking of myself!
(I tried to be modest about it)
September 24th, 2009 at 1:07 pm
Mws-
makes sense on the mindset, I failed to factor in the “hold your nose voter”.
still wouldnt you want to paint the group that closest fits your ideology in a better light than those furthest away?
one has to wonder for how long the GOP is going to pay the price for Bush’s second term blunders. Hopefully not past 2012.
September 24th, 2009 at 1:10 pm
corep,
I think you make a good point about women and unemployment.
As for the youth, I’d talk about all the trillions that Obama and the Demcrats are putting on their credit card, that they will have to pay back some day, or at least huge interest on for the rest of their lives. It will be a huge hit to at least 2 generations’ standard of living.
The three issues you hit the young with are deficits, debt, and deficits. Then maybe they’ll wake up and realize that the dreamy rockstar isn’t worth the expense for the rest of their lives.
September 24th, 2009 at 1:12 pm
All the same, it is far too early to be writing political obituaries, or reserving tickets to inaugural balls. The bottom line is that in a poll of voters, two of our leading candidates have Obama under 50%. Neither one of those guys are going to be put off by a few percentage points of “favorability”.
September 24th, 2009 at 1:12 pm
corep,
“one has to wonder for how long the GOP is going to pay the price for Bush’s second term blunders. Hopefully not past 2012.”
I think that depends mainly on how badly Obama tears things up. Crap, I never thought I’d get a whiff of nostalgia seeing Bill frickin’ Clinton on TV. I loathed the man, but dang, things weren’t so bad then. Could happen with Bush too.
September 24th, 2009 at 1:13 pm
marK,
Will you agree with me then, that Huck is not losing hunky Republicans in the General?
September 24th, 2009 at 1:16 pm
#37.MWS:“Crap, I never thought I’d get a whiff of nostalgia seeing Bill frickin’ Clinton on TV. I loathed the man, but dang, things weren’t so bad then.”
Hey, I could do one better. I got nostalgic seeing CARTER on the TV. Now THAT is scary.
September 24th, 2009 at 1:16 pm
“I just dont understand a mindset that says only 55% of conservatives have a favorable view of the GOP.”
THere are a few people you can thank for that.
September 24th, 2009 at 1:17 pm
“I loathed the man, but dang, things weren’t so bad then. Could happen with Bush too”
thats too funny on Bill. I was thinking the same thing. I was thinking at least Bill had some farily compotent people around him.
the difference we have with Bush is that it is the GOP who loathes Bush as well and is punishing itself. That will have to change becuase as a Pawlenty man you know as I know as a Romney man, that the center wins and if we put up someone too far right(closer to the 45% of unhappy conservatives) then we lose at the national level.
September 24th, 2009 at 1:17 pm
MWS.#38,
Well, it is unlikely he will lose Chuck Norris, if that is what you mean.
September 24th, 2009 at 1:22 pm
“THere are a few people you can thank for that”
i think that list runs the gambit of GOP commentators starting with Beck. I like the guy but at some point, and thankfully we have time, they are going to have to stop saying that the GOP isnt conservative enough and keep the focus on obama or we commit suicide as a party and get what no one wants and that is a 2nd term for the “one”
September 24th, 2009 at 1:24 pm
George Bush really did major damage to the party. The heart and soul is conservative with a fair chunk of the middle and even a few liberals (the gentlewomen from Maine come to mind). The solid right now has a hard time trusting anybody anywhere near the center thanks to little George. That spells doom at the national level unless Obama continues to screw up royally — and who wants to wish that upon our country?
September 24th, 2009 at 1:52 pm
GO MIKE GO !!!
Sweet! Now let’s unite and beat Obama!
September 24th, 2009 at 1:56 pm
Newsweek Poll
February 8, 2008
http://www.newsweek.com/id/109495
Pew Poll
February 3, 2008
http://people-press.org/reports/pdf/392.pdf
September 24th, 2009 at 2:02 pm
So Huck is +58 among Republicans, whereas McCain was +53 when he basically sealed the nomination.
Romney is +29 among Republicans, whereas he was +25 the last time he lost.
Hmmmmmmmmmmm.
Thanks, Aron. Youda’man.
September 24th, 2009 at 2:31 pm
All the polls show the same thing: We have three prime republican potential candidates (Mike, Mitt, Sarah) and two of them (Mike and Mitt) are holding their own against Obama. They are, at the very least, keeping him under 50%.
This time round, PPP has their independents breaking from -14 to +2 for Obama. In my opinion (I said it before), I think PPP polled independents this time that were more Obama leaning and last time that were more republican leaning. Nothing sinister — it just happens that way.
Bottom line, we really have two viable candidates (Mike and Mitt) — Palin is too unelectable to stand a chance in the general election (hence she will not be selected as a nominee). I do not mean this harshly — fair or otherwise, that is how she is perceived. And since she is of “celebrity” status — there is probably very little chance that she can reverse that perception in people’s minds — their opinion of her is basically set since she is so well-known.
So, we can argue amongst ourselves which of the two (Mike/Mitt) is the stronger, which has the most advantage, which is more electable. Honestly, I do not think we have the answer at this point, so even though I am a strong Mike Huckabee supporter, I am just glad to see him holding his own and leave it at that. The only thing I am fairly certain of is that, if both of them run, one of them will be our nominee.
September 24th, 2009 at 2:34 pm
The one glaring fact is that over the last 3 PPP polls (July, Aug, Sept) Sarah Palin has led Mitt Romney by close to 20 points among conservatives (73-53; 68-49; 69-46) and Republicans (76-54; 72-52; 69-50).
I believe it will come down to Palin and Romney in the end. And there is no way Romney can beat Palin in the GOP primaries with these kind of numbers.
September 24th, 2009 at 2:41 pm
#48:
The only way that Mike Huckabee can gain the GOP nomination in 2012 if Sarah Palin does not run. If Sarah runs, and I expect her to, I think it is game over for Huckabee. She will have the big advantage of crowds and money. And remember her supporters will never abandon her for either Romney or Huckabee in the primaries.
September 24th, 2009 at 2:48 pm
#50 –
Bob, you are certainly entitled to your opinion — however, none of the polls (including the Values Voters poll last weekend) support your statement. I can swing wildly, too; but I was trying to be honest — all three of them are equally positioned in every poll in the primary — so Mike has just as good a chance (if not better, if you are going to crow!) then the other two; and in the general election, Sarah does very poorly — and Mike does very well (so does Mitt, for the record).
I have no idea who Palin supporters are, but each of the three candidates have their support groups wound very tightly,
September 24th, 2009 at 2:55 pm
Aron,
It should be noted that McCain seems to have fallen out of favor with Arizona conservatives according to the following PPP poll. He’s at 54/35 approval/disapproval with them. His approval rating is worse than his former running mate among conservatives, McCain voters, and Republicans in his own home state.
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_AZ_924.pdf
September 24th, 2009 at 3:09 pm
i think what is most telling about this poll is that Jeb Bush’s chances are as good as anyone else.
September 24th, 2009 at 3:10 pm
voter.#48,
I agree. Bottom-line, we have two solid candidates in Huckabee and Romney. They are so close so far out from the campaign that the few percentage points between them are meaningless. One poll has Romney on top. Another has Huckabee on top. I haven’t seen a reputable poll in months that has them separated by more than a handful of points. For a campaign that isn’t due to kick off for sixteen months, and whose first votes won’t be cast for nearly thirty months — a spread of 5% and less at this point of time is meaningless.
I wouldn’t even put Sarah out of the running, though I highly doubt she will. Anything can happen in the time frame we are talking about here.
I especially don’t count out Pawlenty either, though I suspect he will be running in 2012 primarily to check off the “Tried and tested in a National Campaign” box that Republican voters like to see.
September 24th, 2009 at 3:25 pm
So according to what Aaron posted, Huckabee is now +58 and he was +23 and Romney is now +29 and he was +25.
If that is correct, that what you have is Huckabee finally able to present himself to the voters without the elites and radio talk show hosts defining him.
People want to vote for someone they like and trust. I read that a lot when I look at Huckabee’s feedback link to his show.
September 24th, 2009 at 3:40 pm
Hey! only the smarter and stronger can save America and save the world.Just two easy example can show clear result for us as Carter came to white house,the communist rose to power,Soviet took over Afghanistan,Iran caught 52 American as hostages in 444 days,Reagan just got elected,Iran released them immediately,Reagan won the cold war without no bullet of weapon because Reagan leadership style,Reagan owns character,Reagan’s strength,and Reagan’s star war.Obama is a good talker,loud sound but he is weak on foreign policy,weak on leadership,no experience,Palin is not a national leader yet,she is the kind of good talking and enjoying speech,can’t handle the job of government,as just the job of gov she didn’t finish,she more funny for the taste of campaign more than the job in the office,because go around the country for speech and collect money is very sweet but the job in office is too boring,don’t just enjoying dancing with the young singer,American can’t afford 4 more years of inexperience,they can’t wait for welfare,can’t wait for EDD any more,and the government won’t have that budget for them ether.Mike is a good gov but he is kind of weak like John Kerry,no leadership character,not strong enough,and his sound too soft,Mitt is a perfect man for America as Reagan did,Mitt is stronger,smarter,more courageous,best character,best resume,track record,most experience in the economy,look presidential,most power full speaker,loud sound like Obama,only Mitt can debate with Obama and can beat Obama,in Mitt leadership style and his own character,America will lead the world again because they respect his personal character and his strength,and so he will won the war on terrorist like Reagan won the cold war.
September 24th, 2009 at 3:44 pm
#48 voter – that’s the smartest posting I’ve ever read from you.
September 24th, 2009 at 3:49 pm
Corep #25: “this just proves that Huck and Mitt and the only two who stand a chance to beat Obama.”
Voter #48: “Bottom line, we really have two viable candidates (Mike and Mitt)…”
Don’t you think you’re putting an awful lot of weight on polls three years out from the election? This poll (and others with similar results) don’t “prove” anything other than what the situation is now. If we were closer to the election (say Sept 2011) and if I were a Palin supporter, I would be concerned, but the one thing we can be sure of is that there will be a lot of changes in the course of the next couple years.
Polls like this are useful indicators, but they prove nothing.
September 24th, 2009 at 3:58 pm
This is not good for Huckabee or Palin, Huckabee has his show which fox begins promoting on Thursday morning, and it’s all Huckabee on the Weekends there and Palin is the conservative medias Shirly Temple.
Romney is more measured in the exposure he wants, and he’s even with Huckabee.
Polling Jeb shows how PPP is manipulating the results, otherwise they would poll Pawlenty. Jeb’s votes would probably go to Romney…
September 24th, 2009 at 3:59 pm
Once upon a time I was part of a team designing a fairly complex system. It was going to be a major investment so the company wanted to do it right. Our Marketing department polled and interviewed a number of potential customers. They were almost unanimous in their responses. They all wanted the system to be control via touchscreens. They did not want IR remotes or push-button panels. They wanted touchscreens.
Well, we spent a great deal of money designing the system to be controlled by touchscreens. When it came to time to sell, nearly all the customers said no, they really didn’t want touchscreens after all. They wanted push-button panels and IR remotes instead. We ended up having to spend a ton of additional time and money retrofitting the systems to accept push-button controls and IR remotes.
The touchscreens were a colossal failure. But that was what nearly all our customers had insisted they wanted when we did the preliminary research for the project. But when it came time to actually buy, they abandoned the touchscreens and went with the other controls.
Rudy Guiliani led in all the polls from 2005 through most of 2007. His margin over his closest rival, John McCain, was often in double digits. It looked like he was going to cruise into the nomination. But once people actually started to pay attention to the candidates and listen to what they had to say, his support dropped rapidly. By the time he dropped out, he had managed to garner all of one delegate.
Morale of these two stories: Take polls this far out with a healthy grain of salt.
September 24th, 2009 at 4:01 pm
Yes!#53,is right,in my sight,Jeb is second from Mitt,no one is better than both of two.Even same last name but different people,so what are the matter for America? Look Jeb record,he is a good leader,only he is wrong birth to be the brother of Bush,but how about Mrs.Clinton,no body talk about? no law said about it,but by the spirit of human been,Mrs. Clinton must not campaign for president because the husband had already been the president,why the wife still need that job? just for her selfish,is not for the country.what ever the poll come out today,tomorow,next month or next year,in 2012 in the campaign trail,America will be with Mitt because he is the America dream,he has leadership style and leadership character.
September 24th, 2009 at 4:02 pm
corep #41: “if we put up someone too far right(closer to the 45% of unhappy conservatives) then we lose at the national level.”
marK 44: “The solid right now has a hard time trusting anybody anywhere near the center thanks to little George.”
I think you are both making a mistake in assuming that the 45% of conservatives who express disapproval of the Republican Party are necessarily from the far right. I could possibly number myself among them, and I think most would classify me as fairly moderate/libertarian.
The Republican Party when in power spent like spent in a manner that would shock the most drunken sailor; spouted “family values” while seducing pages, visiting prostitutes, and trying to find true love in airport men’s rooms; and threw aside the principles of federalism and opposition to judicial activism in the Schiavo case. The list could go on and on.
Yeah, I disapprove.
September 24th, 2009 at 4:09 pm
Mark and BobH – Yeah, you’re right about this not meaning a lot at this point.
I was congratulating voter on being more open to the possibility of a Mitt Romney candidacy, but as far as it being narrowed down to a Mitt and Mike race, nah, it’s not.
September 24th, 2009 at 4:11 pm
One thing that the last Presidential cycle taught was that polls this far out are little more than name-recognition. Four years ago, everyone had heard of Rudy Giuliani. He was the mayor, after all, during 9/11/2002. Nearly everyone had a favorable impression of him. Most Republicans knew of John McCain as the person who George Bush defeated in 2000. They were also somewhat aware of the fact that he had been somewhat controversial in the Senate.
So surprise, surprise. The polls showed Giuliani way ahead of everybody, McCain his closest competitor trailing by double digits, and everyone else down in the mud, most not even rising above 5%.
Flash forward to today. Mitt came in second last time, plus he keeps his name in the news somewhat. Huckabee sort of took second, plus he has his TV show and Radio minute. Palin was the VP candidate, plus she has stayed heavily in the news.
All three had great name-recognition at this time. So surprise, surprise — all three are prominent in the polls right now.
September 24th, 2009 at 4:20 pm
Actually, if you take a look at the roll-call at the Convention, Ron Paul came in second.
September 24th, 2009 at 4:32 pm
The main difference between 2008 and 2012 is that neither Giuliani, McCain or Romney were Reagan conservatives.
In 2012 there will be one and a prominent one at that, Sarah Palin. There is no way she will bomb in the primaries. Of course she might not run.
September 24th, 2009 at 4:45 pm
#62.Bob Hovic,
I suspect you misunderstood me. I did not say “far” right. I said “solid” right. I meant the area between the Center and the Far Right where the vast majority of conservatives are. They have learned, thanks to George W. Bush, not to trust people over near the Center. It is hurting the party.
September 24th, 2009 at 4:51 pm
Bob, I would love for Sarah to run in ’12. We need her ideas and spirit on the campaign trail again. But, my guess is that she will wait ’til ’16 if Mike, Tim or Mitt don’t defeat Obama this time.
September 24th, 2009 at 4:59 pm
bob.#66,
The term “Reagan Conservative” is about as meaningful as “True Conservative”, “RINO”, and a host of other political labels. Reagan, himself, supported a number of policies that are now opposed by people invoking his name. So what exactly IS a Reagan Conservative? No one knows for sure, but that doesn’t keep them from invoking his name in support of their positions. It is sort of like liberals invoking Christ’s name in support of ObamaCare.
Sarah Palin is Sarah Palin. She is NOT Mitt Romney. She is NOT Mike Huckabee. She is NOT Tim Pawlenty. She is NOT George W. Bush. She is NOT Hillary Clinton. She is NOT Abraham Lincoln. She is NOT Ronald Reagan. She is Sarah Palin. If she runs and is elected, it will NOT be the second coming of Ronald Reagan. It will be the first coming of Sarah Palin.
September 24th, 2009 at 5:58 pm
I’m tempted to make a pledge not to support any candidate who compares himself to Reagan, but I’m afraid I’d end up having to vote for the Socialist Workers Party.
September 24th, 2009 at 6:22 pm
Are you nuts, Sarah Palin is close to be like Reagan as an apple is to an Orange. There is no comparison.
If anyone is like Reagan, it would be Romney. Both were successful inside and outside Politics.
September 24th, 2009 at 6:23 pm
#70.Bob Hovic:“I’m tempted to make a pledge not to support any candidate who compares himself to Reagan, but I’m afraid I’d end up having to vote for the Socialist Workers Party.”
+5, my friend
September 24th, 2009 at 7:56 pm
marK,
“Once upon a time…..”
So I guess the upshot of that whole story is that Romny will not get the nominee in 2012. He is not conservative.
September 24th, 2009 at 9:15 pm
What is this all really telling us? That the country is moving in a left0wing, illegal-immigrant loving, bleeding-heart liberal sympathetic direction. Very very sad.
September 24th, 2009 at 9:16 pm
Romney,huckabee,palin? huh.so much baggages.desperate.
September 25th, 2009 at 5:32 am
“So Huck is +58 among Republicans, whereas McCain was +53 when he basically sealed the nomination.
Romney is +29 among Republicans, whereas he was +25 the last time he lost.”
Yes, it is interesting that Mr. Romney is stuck at only +29. That number is a result of the fact that despite Mr. Romney’s fame, many people feel neutral about him instead of positive. It would be more interesting to find find if this is due to likability or due to his policies. Both things can be fixed over the next few years by Mr. Romney, but if he does not fix his numbers, many of us will eventually question if he is a viable candidate after all.
September 27th, 2009 at 12:45 pm
[...] would have gone with D (which got 2 votes). 5 months away from the first caucus, a guy with these favorables among likely Republican voters simply can’t afford to tick off the base. That definitely [...]
September 29th, 2009 at 7:40 pm
GOP Moderate Woes
http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2009/09/on-our-national-poll-last-week-19-of.html
October 5th, 2009 at 4:52 pm
[...] of explanations, 31 months into her first term. And still she has the highest favorables among conservatives; still she can drive a revolt against national policy from her facebook page; still she can get [...]