Let’s just suppose for a moment that this item from the Weekly Standard is true:
The boss hears from two sources that Hillary Clinton is considering stepping down as Secretary of State this fall in order to run for Governor of New York.
I have no idea about its accuracy, but if it is true: Does it mean Hillary is or is not planning a run for the presidency in 2012?
An early exit from Obama’s cabinet would certainly be interpreted (correctly, I would guess) as a slap at him, and as an effort to distance herself from a failing presidency. From this we would assume that she may be running.
On the other hand, it has often been said of Rudy Giuliani that running for governor would make a presidential run impossible; and therefore we would assume that the same applies to Hillary – running for governor in 2010 means she is not running for president in 2012.
I’m going to propose that the latter rule does not apply to Hillary. It may apply to Rudy, because running for the presidency in a conventional campaign would necessitate spending much of 2011 eating corn dogs at Iowa county fairs and shaking hands outside New Hampshire churches, tough for a sitting governor to justify. But an insurgent campaign, riding a wave of liberal anger against a failed presidency (if Obama’s administration is widely perceived that way two years from today), does not require constant presence in the early states. I don’t think today such a campaign would require the groundwork that a conventional campaign might.
Hillary Clinton does not need to introduce herself to voters. There are few people better known. She doesn’t have to do much to build a national organization; the skeleton exists, and a few email blasts to organize meetings in every county in the country would quickly put flesh on it.
If the mood of the Democratic base is ugly in late 2011 a Draft Hillary movement could be put together in weeks and the governor of New York could reluctantly accede to the wishes of the people and accept the draft. She might lose in Iowa, but then win in New Hampshire, and then … who knows?
I’m not saying that Hillary running for governor means that she is running for president. But it is something she needs to do to put herself in a position from which she can run if the timing looks right. If not, then 2016 is still open. If it happens, I would interpret it as a move to keep her options open.
(HT: Tommy Boy)
September 9th, 2009 at 11:20 pm
I’d honestly be very surprised if she resigned and ran for Governor. It would give her the dreaded adjective of ‘Erratic’.
Senator, then Presidential candidate, then back to Senator, then Secretary of State, then Gubernatorial candidate (or Governor – she would definitely win), all in the span of three years?
Anyway, I’d say it would have to be a move against Obama if she resigned and ran for Governor. As for 2012, I think it would be a bad move. She probably wouldn’t win and her legacy would be damaged, and she would be blamed for the Democrats losing the presidency.
September 9th, 2009 at 11:36 pm
believe if Obama is low enough a year from now, she will run in 2012. If he’s still fairly holding his own, I think she will not run. I’m not sure about 2016.
September 9th, 2009 at 11:48 pm
Kevin: I don’t see that the “erratic” label would apply. Pres candidate is not an office. She was Senator, became Sec of State, and resigned. It would be unstated but understood that the resignation was in protest of Obama policies, therefore the short tenure would be excusable.
Il-Guy: I think that’s exactly it — she’ll run if Obama is weak enough. I disagree though that the decision will be made next year — I think the sort of insurgency this would be could wait until fairly late to be launched (fall of 2011), though the planning would need to be done earlier.
September 10th, 2009 at 6:32 am
Stop believing crazy stories!
And no, in the unlikely event that this was true it would PRECLUDE her from running for Prez in 2012.
She only runs if Obama dies and if he does Biden gets first chance to impress as Prez.
September 10th, 2009 at 6:45 am
If she won the Gov. of NY in 2012 Kentucky Fried Chicken would help her and her fans celebrate. They would feature the Hillary Clinton Special. You get a small breast, two fat thighs and a left wing !
September 10th, 2009 at 10:36 am
I would say zero chance hillary runs against obama in a primary in 2012 or that rudy runs for president in 2012…now the gov thing is a different matter…i think rudy should run, end of story. As for hillary, she does have a clear path for running in 2016 without much risk, that would be serve a term as sec of state, than land another cabinet job in term II if obama wins, say AG, than quit summer of 2015 to run for the white house as term III for obama(don’t buy the notion biden will be running in 2016). If obama lost in 2012, hillary could still run in 2016 without any second term cabinet job…what would make hillary give that path up to run for gov in 2010? + throw in the landscape of ny politics, she would have to edge out the current gov (not hard but still might hurt in a general), than andrew cuomo would have be taken care of (maybe name him lt gov or back him for then next mayor of nyc) than after all that hillary would put herself up against rudy in a general race in what should be a down dem year + this is all for the luxury of leaving one of the best jobs in dc and her gtwon pad to live in albany?
The only reasons i can think of she thinks things are about to tank and wants out of the obama admin or she fears obama could replace biden in 2012 with say the current sec of hhs and hillary would lose her angle to run in 2016 as basically obama term III…than again, maybe hillary just wants the attention and a 2010 hillary vs rudy race would be a blockbuster. I would bet she sticks with her current gig.
September 10th, 2009 at 11:01 am
That’s pretty much the whole point. If she sees Obama going down, she’ll be the first rat off the ship.
I’m not at all convinced this is likely — I’m just doing a “what-if” off the Weekly Standard story. It does make sense in one regard, though — I do think she’s watching Obama flounder and calculating her chances in a challenge (she wouldn’t be Hillary if she weren’t doing that), and she could do that much better from Albany than from Foggy Bottom.
September 10th, 2009 at 4:07 pm
Hillary will be too old (and will look it) in 2016.
September 10th, 2009 at 7:22 pm
I think 2016 is possible.
September 10th, 2009 at 11:00 pm
If Hillary is going to be President, it will happen in 2016. Even if Obama disappoints with Health Care, Don’t Ask Don’t Tell, and the other major promises he made in 2008, he’s too influential for any candidate to oppose successfully.
This fall also seems too early for her to go for another office.
With that said, a governorship could create the narrative of female empowerment, and particularly help Hillary with her image as an executive.
However, she’d have to give up the lofty authority that comes with having been Secretary of State for 8 years.
Whatever she does, some will call her a national heroine, and some will call her a haggard calculating ice queen. We’ll just have to wait and see.
September 11th, 2009 at 12:36 am
I think she’ll stay on and continue to serve the president as sec. of state. When 2012 comes around, Obama will let Biden go and move Hillary into VP to help in the election, as he will probably need someone like her to fight to stay in power. And i think she’ll pull it off as her popularity continues to grow. Then there will be a clear path to 2016 for her.