Sometimes, a person is able to accomplish more in death than they were in life. The courageous stand at the Alamo became a rallying cry that defeated the Mexican army. Sometimes, the death of a strong advocate can end the cause. When looking at Sen Kennedy, regardless of what you think of him as a man and as a politician, there is no denying he had a strong influence on the debate. For good or ill, Sen Kennedy was a pivotal player with tremendous influence. His death has the potential to either get a bill passed or sink the remaining hope. History will look back and see the latter, not the former.
Why wouldn’t his passing have the opposite effect, rallying the troops and getting a bill signed? There are several reasons why that won’t be the case this time:
- Senator Kennedy was a divisive national figure: Sure, liberals and Democrats loved this man. He was a stalwart champion for their causes, always there to take up a pet issue, and was willing to do anything and everything in his power to carry the issue. However, his appeal to moderates (outside MA) was very limited, and conservatives routinely used him as a symbol of what’s wrong with DC.
- Senator Kennedy had already faded somewhat from the debate: Because of his illness, Sen Kennedy was not seen as personally leading the charge on this bill. Did he still wield considerable influence? Absolutely, but everyone knew he didn’t have long to live, and were already moving past him. Nobody talked of his speeches, his negotiations, or his portion of the various bills in the various committees.
- The government option for healthcare has not become more popular with Senator Kennedy’s passing: The town hall anger has not gone away. Democrats are desperate to pack the events in order to try and give the illusion that they are gaining support. Nobody’s buying.
- Blue Dogs will not heel in memory of a Senator Kennedy: Many people seem to think that Spkr Pelosi will be able to finally reign in the Blue Dogs with a rousing “Let’s pass this one for Kennedy!” This will fail, and it will fail because no Blue Dog who wants even an ounce of a chance to retain their seat in the face of the building tsunami of 2010 will want nothing to do with the legacy of Sen Kennedy. Above all, these politicians want to keep their seats, and to be seen bowing to the memory of a polarizing figure in opposition to the people’s will is political suicide.
For all of the above-mentioned points, attempts to use Sen Kennedy’s vestiges of Camelot to ride us into the promised land of Obamacare will fail. He who was seen as a giant in life will be revealed as a passing reference in the current healthcare debate.
September 1st, 2009 at 11:45 pm
You nailed it RM
September 2nd, 2009 at 12:27 am
Exactly right. He appeals only to those who agreed with him before his passing. Moderates and Republicans aren’t going to be swayed now that he’s gone. If anything, using his death as a rallying cry will only lose the very support the Dems desperately need.
September 2nd, 2009 at 3:02 am
Richard,
Obama does appear to have gotten a slight gallup bump from kennedy’s death. Ratings increased for cable news on Saturday.
http://www.mediabistro.com/tvnewser/ratings/cnn_wins_saturday_kennedy_coverage_handily_130020.asp
Hopefully, when the Saturday number rolls off tomorrow, Obama will be back to 50% and that will be all he gets for the kennedy bounce.
September 2nd, 2009 at 4:20 am
I don’t think Obama has ever been as low as 50% so I don’t know what you mean by back to 50%.
Let’s crack open the champagne when he gets down to 49%!
Bear in mind though the economy is going a lot better than we thought 6 months ago.
September 2nd, 2009 at 8:19 am
Don’t count your chickens yet. The Democrats will still probably get a bill passed there is too much counting on it, even if it is coops and initial government funding rather than a full blown public option.
September 2nd, 2009 at 8:32 am
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2009/09/02/voting_for_obamacare_will_not_help_save_democrats_majorities_98120.html
September 2nd, 2009 at 8:33 am
#5 Oh, I fully agree that we aren’t out of the woods yet, but Sen Kennedy’s not going to be the reason something goes through.
#3 Tommy, I’ll grant that Sen Kennedy likely is significant in Pres Obama’s bump. That doesn’t make healthcare more popular or more likely to pass. I also expect it will die down quickly, for the reasons I mentioned above.
September 2nd, 2009 at 9:34 am
Good post Richard. If the bill fails, I think it will ultimately be for two reasons:
1. The 85% of Americans with health insurance generally see this as raising their costs/reducing their care for the sake of covering the 15%. In a democracy (or Republic) that isn’t a popular idea.
2. People are finally waking up to the problem of the deficits, and unless the bill pays for itself (which it won’t) people are going to be loathe to pile up more public debt, especially if it is perceived as benefitting only the 15%.
The Dems made a huge strategic blunder when they decided to effectively make this about covering the last 15% instead of reducing costs for everyone. Since they made the central benefit, people see the trillion dollar downpayment, the rationing, and the “death panels” as all existing for the sake of the 15%.
September 2nd, 2009 at 9:54 am
Romney’s opening moves this fall
http://dyn.politico.com/printstory.cfm?uuid=78DB320F-18FE-70B2-A86AABFB967593F2
While Malek says it’s too early to make a commitment to Romney, one has to wonder whether he has stepped off the Palin bandwagon.
September 2nd, 2009 at 10:23 am
Why Your Coach Votes Republican
In Politics, Football’s Bosses Usually Run Right; Mr. Friedgen Picks on ‘Socialists’
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204731804574386952311239532.html