Zogby has Obama at 42%

August 31, 2009

Zogby has Obama at 42%

Zogby’s latest poll has his overall approval/disapproval numbers at 42%/48%. The crosstabs available to the the general public are telling:

August 31 [July 24] {deltas}

Democrats:

75%/13% [88%/10%] {-13%/+3%}

Liberals:

86%/4% [95%/4%] {-9%/0%}

African-Americans:

74%/21% [83%/17%] {-9%/+4%}

Ages 18-29:

41%/41% [59%/38%] {-18%/+3%}

Obama claims not to look at polls. Even if he doesn’t (yeah, right), I can guarantee his fellow Democrats in Congress do, especially the “Blue Dogs”. So do the Republicans.

Zogby, like Rasmussen polls likely voters.

by Mark B. Lowe @ 5:28 pm. Filed under 2010, 2012 Misc., Barack Obama, Democrats, Poll Watch

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39 Responses to “Zogby has Obama at 42%”

Greg Says:
August 31st, 2009 at 5:35 pm
IS IT 2012 YET!!!!!???
CalState Says:
August 31st, 2009 at 6:09 pm
how much off is he to Bush’s lowest numbers?
JA Pruce Says:
August 31st, 2009 at 6:30 pm
The economy will continue to tank and bottom out in fall of 2009 enabling the GOP candidate to win in a landslide. I have never seen such a precipitous drop in approval rating in all of my years.
JA Pruce Says:
August 31st, 2009 at 6:32 pm
oops, I meant to say that the economy will bottom out in the fall of 2012.
KWN Says:
August 31st, 2009 at 6:33 pm
As much as I would like to believe these Zogby numbers, 74%/21% disapproval among A.A.’s causes me to doubt it.
Adam Says:
August 31st, 2009 at 6:44 pm
Obama is not at 74 percent among blacks. He’s not below 90 among that group and he never will be.
LutieT Says:
August 31st, 2009 at 7:09 pm
its an online poll so it is suspect
Thomas Alan Says:
August 31st, 2009 at 7:10 pm
5:

Blacks only make up 10% or so of the country. Even if they Zogby got a bad sample and the true number for blacks were at 90% approval, it’d bump Obama’s numbers up less than 2 points.
Tommy Boy Says:
August 31st, 2009 at 7:22 pm
MarK,

Let’s take this one down. We cannot be taken seriously if we are pimping Zogby. We have other polls to prove our point that Obama is flopping.
Greg Says:
August 31st, 2009 at 8:33 pm
I just hope congress men/ women take these town halls on health care seriously when the fly back to vote When is the vote? Last time I checked this is America and we have the right to vote this congress out!
Kristofer Lorelli Says:
August 31st, 2009 at 8:40 pm
Czar’s ‘communist manifesto’ scrubbed from Net http://tinyurl.com/nutd9j #tcot
Anthony Dalke Says:
August 31st, 2009 at 9:10 pm
5 and 6,

I thought the same thing when I read the numbers. I also doubt the numbers for people aged 18-29. From my personal experience, people in that age group (which happens to be mine) don’t pay nearly as much attention to the news as they did during the campaign, when they swooned for Barack, so I don’t see how they could have shifted 18%. Then again, maybe the fact that Zogby polls likely voters negates my point.
Tommy Boy Says:
August 31st, 2009 at 9:24 pm
Allegedly breaking:

http://www.hedgehogreport.com/?p=9788#comment-535365

We’ve learned from reliable sources that a new Quinnipiac College poll shows Chris Christie increasing his lead over Gov. Corzine from six to ten points since the previous survey. So much for Corzine’s negative attacks! Christie leads by a large 47% to 37% margin. Daggett pulls 9%.

(Embargoed: Not to released until 9 am 9/1/09)

Other key poll findings:

* President Obama’s approval rating has fallen to 51%. A full 43% disapprove.

* Corzine leads 74% to 15% among Democrats while Christie leads 86% to 8% among Republicans and 46% to 30% among independents.

* 77% have seen Corzine ads connecting Christie to George W. Bush but 56% believe the ads are unfair. Notably, 59% of independents find the ads unfair.

* 60% disapprove of Corzine’s job performance and only 34% have a favorable view of Jon Corzine personally.

* 96% think government corruption is a “serious” problem and 50% associate Democrats with corruption while 16% see it as a Republican mostly problem.

* 46% would rather see the Republican Party in control of the State Legislature as opposed to Democrats.

* 38% would prefer to see a Giants game with Christie. 36% would rather see it with Corzine.
Tommy Boy Says:
August 31st, 2009 at 9:30 pm
Honoré: ‘I’m Not Running For Senate’
http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/2009/08/honore-im-not-running-for-senate.php?ref=fpblg
Adam Says:
August 31st, 2009 at 9:52 pm
Tommy Boy,

Both 13 and 14 are good news.
Adam Says:
August 31st, 2009 at 9:52 pm
Tommy Boy,

Both 13 and 14 are good news.
Tommy Boy Says:
August 31st, 2009 at 9:53 pm
Here’s the link:

LATE BREAKING: Christie Increases Lead Over Corzine by 10-Points in New Quinnipiac Poll
http://blog.savejersey.com/2009/08/31/breaking-christie-leads-corzine-by-10points-in-new-quinnipiac-poll-2.aspx
Adam Says:
August 31st, 2009 at 9:55 pm
I still want to see Christie get to 50 percent and stay there. But if the source is right, it is defnitely good news.
Dave Says:
August 31st, 2009 at 10:08 pm
Of course this poll is inaccurate! If you ever see a poll that’s accurate, it’s a coincidence. What this poll does indicate however is that the trend continues and that Obama’s approval numbers are still dropping. Does anybody see any reason to think that there is something on the horizon that will stop them from dropping?? I used to be a stockbroker, and learned that the trend is your friend. If something (a stock, an economy, Obama) is falling, it’s because forces are in motion to make it fall. If it keeps falling, it’s because those forces have their own inherent multiplier effects. Newton said something similar when he was defining the laws of motion, as I recall.
Richard Murray Says:
August 31st, 2009 at 10:15 pm
#19 The problem with the interactive polls is they aren’t reliable because they aren’t scientific. Tommy’s right. As much as I’d like to believe this poll, it’s garbage and needs to be ignored.
Aron Goldman Says:
August 31st, 2009 at 10:45 pm
Poll Watch: Quinnipiac New Jersey Gubernatorial Survey

Chris Christie 47% (46%)
Jon Corzine 37% (40%)
Chris Daggett 9% (7%)

Among Independents

Chris Christie 46% (55%)
Jon Corzine 30% (25%)
Chris Daggett ~17% (13%)

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president?

Approve 51% (56%) [61%]
Disapprove 43% (39%) [33%]

Results from the poll conducted August 5-9 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted July 8 – 12 are in brackets.
Kristofer Lorelli Says:
August 31st, 2009 at 10:51 pm
Breaking news;

British media is accusing P.M. Brown of releasing terrorist and murderer of American citizens in exchange for oil treaty (bailing out two largest banks in Scotland).

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0uFzrLipHGE&eurl=http%3A%2F%2Fnews%2Egoogle%2Eca%2Fnews%2Fsearch%3Fum%3D1%26ned%3Dca%26hl%3Den%26q%3Dgordon%2Bbrown%2Blybia%2Boil&feature=player_embedded
Dave Says:
August 31st, 2009 at 11:01 pm
Richard,

Look at the approval/disapproval numbers in the last 2 lines of Aron’s post in #21 and you see the trend in New Jersey. The last poll I saw was the Rasmussen poll that showed Obama’s approval number at 46%, then this one comes out showing that it’s 42%. The real number is probably inbetween. Like I said, no poll is ever accurate. We use them as indicators of the rough order of magnitude or of trajectories. Based on what we’ve been seeing in the polling that’s been done, it’s reasonable to expect that within a month we’ll see Obama’s approval drop below 40%, and at the rate his numbers are declining, it might be by the end of the week.
Jonathan Says:
August 31st, 2009 at 11:04 pm
#21:

My big concern is where Chris Daggett’s voters end up. 3rd parties poll well heading up to an election, but they always lose support as voters finally choose between the Republican and the Democrat.

If Daggett’s voters break even, or end up in a “throw-the-bums-out” mood, we win. If the majoirty go to Corzine, that plus the states blue nature could make us lose.
Kristofer Lorelli Says:
August 31st, 2009 at 11:18 pm
Gross National Happiness – Bhutan
WATCH THIS!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CXJwNSkdTH0
Kristofer Lorelli Says:
August 31st, 2009 at 11:22 pm
Zuma Caves to RB.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9aaosv7pu6M
Tommy Boy Says:
August 31st, 2009 at 11:23 pm
Today’s Washington Post editorial:

Bob McDonnell, Culture Warrior
At 34, the GOP candidate for governor disapproved of fornicators, homosexuals and working women.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/08/31/AR2009083103045.html
Tommy Boy Says:
August 31st, 2009 at 11:29 pm
Governor’s Race Erupts Over McDonnell’s Past Views
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/08/31/AR2009083103855_2.html?sid=ST2009082902758

“There are three ways to lose,” said Patrick M. McSweeney, a former state GOP chairman and a standard-bearer of the party’s right wing. “One is you can state a position that is controversial and offend a lot of people. Second, you can not take a position and offend people who want leaders. And third, you can back away from a previously held view. But the worst thing to do is to lose votes in all three of those areas.”
Aron Goldman Says:
August 31st, 2009 at 11:30 pm
Sen. Grassley: No public option in health reform
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090901/ap_on_go_co/us_grassley_health_care

Massachusetts Cuts Back Immigrant Health Care
State-subsidized health insurance for 31,000 legal immigrants here will no longer cover dental, hospice or skilled-nursing care under a scaled-back plan that Gov. Deval Patrick announced Monday.
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/09/01/health/policy/01mass.html?pagewanted=print

White House Plans to Shift Efforts at Civil Rights Division
Seven months after taking office, Attorney General Eric H. Holder Jr. is reshaping the Justice Department’s Civil Rights Division by pushing it back into some of the most important areas of American political life, including voting rights, housing, employment, bank lending practices and redistricting after the 2010 census. As part of this shift, the Obama administration is planning a major revival of high-impact civil rights enforcement against policies, in areas ranging from housing to hiring, where statistics show that minorities fare disproportionately poorly. President George W. Bush’s appointees had discouraged such tactics, preferring to focus on individual cases in which there is evidence of intentional discrimination.
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/09/01/us/politics/01rights.html?adxnnl=1&adxnnlx=1251777967-Em1/bPFPH9Fpqt6vEauUtA&pagewanted=print

Obama aides see need for more troops in Afghanistan
http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/N31439558.htm

Groundwork Is Laid for New Troops in Afghanistan
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/09/01/world/asia/01military.html

Pentagon worried about Obama’s commitment to Afghanistan
http://news.yahoo.com/s/mcclatchy/3303057

Palin’s PAC doles out cash to GOP
Sarah Palin’s political action committee, facing scrutiny from the Federal Election Commission, revealed Monday that it had recently made contributions to a raft of mostly conservative Republicans, including Reps. Michele Bachmann of Minnesota and Marsha Blackburn of Tennessee, Virginia gubernatorial candidate Bob McDonnell and Sens. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina and Orrin Hatch of Utah.
http://dyn.politico.com/printstory.cfm?uuid=725E7F83-18FE-70B2-A874F1954BC233D6

NYC: Safe Haven for Small Businesses?
New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg is set to announce a plan to get small businesses in his city through the economic downturn. He discusses the plan with CNBC.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1233164621&play=1

How Can President Obama Regain His Political Footing?
by Newt Gingrich
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/08/28/AR2009082803158_pf.html

When he returns from vacation, the president’s most important assignment should be to take a deep breath and get a long-term view of the country’s reaction to his policies.

Since World War II, only Gerald Ford and Bill Clinton have had worse ratings after seven months than President Obama. His economic policies are not creating jobs. His energy tax is unlikely to pass the Senate. There is an overwhelming rejection of his spending policies.

On the international front, Afghanistan is proving much harder than expected. Iran is showing no signs of giving up its nuclear program and North Korea is still unyielding.

In this setting, the left’s health program is bitterly dividing the country. Several polls have shown that more Americans expect their personal health-care situation to get worse than to get better under the plan being considered in Congress.

Still, Obama’s left-wing advisers want him to undertake the revolutionary act of ramming through massive change for 17 percent of the economy under a narrow budgetary provision. This would be a statement of absolute defiance of the vast majority of Americans.

Obama faces a choice: He can attempt to run a left-wing government against the American people. Or he can govern from the center with a large majority of Americans supporting him. He can have either his left angry or the American people angry. We will know in September which choice he has made.
Thomas Alan Says:
August 31st, 2009 at 11:41 pm
23:

If I’m not mistaken, the poll Aron posted only includes the people in New Jersey. I’d think that state would generally have a higher approval rating for a Democrat than the national average.
Kristofer Lorelli Says:
September 1st, 2009 at 12:16 am
This is an American woman in Venezuela;
*Puke*
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WKCylyGmY6Y&feature=related
Tommy Boy Says:
September 1st, 2009 at 12:20 am
We don’t know for sure if those are the numbers. It’s all from a source as Aron hasn’t linked to Quinnipiac yet.

We’ll know tomorrow morning if the source duped everybody or not.
Kristofer Lorelli Says:
September 1st, 2009 at 12:36 am
Duncan Hunter Calls Accusations of War Crimes By Rumsfeld Left Wing Rubbish

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RdO94ujnkeI&NR=1
Tommy Boy Says:
September 1st, 2009 at 1:07 am
From the editorial board of the Pensacola News Journal:

Gov. Crist guilty of cronyism
http://www.pnj.com/article/20090901/NEWS01/909010319/1006/NEWS01

Gov. Charlie Crist had the perfect opportunity to do something that most politicians wouldn’t do if their lives depended on it: Tell the truth.

When he chose his longtime political ally and former chief of staff, George LeMieux, to fill Mel Martinez’ seat in the U.S. Senate, Crist could have stood at the Historic Capitol in Tallahassee and said: “I’m appointing my good friend and confidante to hold this Senate seat for me until next year.”

Instead, the governor did what every self-serving public servant does best: He wasn’t completely honest.

Whether it is to reconcile the conflicts between expectations and reality, or to justify the unjustifiable, all politicians twist the truth. It’s the nature of their work.

But even when given an easy reason to tell the complete truth, they rarely have the courage or conscience to do it.

Appoint himself

Instead of giving the truthful, politically expedient reason for appointing LeMieux, Crist spun an unbelievable tale about LeMieux being the best qualified and most likely to best serve the people of Florida in Washington.

“I know the kind of public servant he has been and will be,” Crist said of LeMieux. “I know his soul, and I know that he will serve the people of the state honorably and well.”

To the contrary.

It was blatant cronyism.

Crist put his selfish interests ahead of the interest of the constituents who elected him to office. The person LeMieux will serve the most honorably and well is the Florida governor who appointed him.

Crist could have taken the high road and been completely honest by appointing himself to the position. At least he has the qualifications of holding an elected office as governor.

Instead, Crist appointed his top campaign strategist and pal, LeMieux, who has never held elected office, who knows little about Capitol Hill and even less about how to handle the issues and people in Congress.

Selfish ambitions
Crist spent — or more accurately, wasted — weeks interviewing lawyers, politicians and lobbyists to finally settle on his best buddy.

For a man who calls himself the “people’s governor,” Crist’s selection of LeMieux was not for the people; it was for his personal ambitions.

LeMieux in Congress gives Crist a bigger edge on his Republican challenger, Marco Rubio. He will be in the best place to make key contacts in Washington and keep the Senate seat warm for Crist in the hope he wins the November 2010 election.

Until we stand up and acknowledge that there is a right and truthful way and we are not afraid to define that way, then we are going to keep getting the same sorry results from our leaders.

Crist’s appointment of LeMieux shows us what he thinks about Florida and the people in it.

It’s up to us to show Crist what we think about him in 2010.
Aron Goldman Says:
September 1st, 2009 at 1:19 am
Tax Reform’s Lesson for Health Care Reform
by Bill Bradley
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/30/opinion/30bradley.html?pagewanted=print

I believe such a grand bipartisan compromise is still possible with health care.

Since the days of Harry Truman, Democrats have wanted universal health coverage, believing that if other industrialized countries can achieve it, surely the United States can. For Democrats, universal coverage speaks to America’s sense of decency and compassion. Democrats also believe that it will lead to a healthier and more productive country.

Since the days of Ronald Reagan, Republicans have wanted legal reform, believing that our economic competitiveness is being shackled by the billions we spend annually on tort costs; an estimated 10 cents of every health care dollar paid by individuals and companies goes for litigation and defensive medicine. For Republicans, tort reform and its health care analogue, malpractice reform, speak to the goal of stronger economic growth and lower costs.

The bipartisan trade-off in a viable health care bill is obvious: Combine universal coverage with malpractice tort reform in health care.

Universal coverage can be obtained in many ways — including the so-called public option. Malpractice tort reform can be something as commonsensical as the establishment of medical courts — similar to bankruptcy or admiralty courts — with special judges to make determinations in cases brought by parties claiming injury. Such a bipartisan outcome would lower health care costs, reduce errors (doctors and nurses often don’t report errors for fear of being sued) and guarantee all Americans adequate health care.

Whenever Congress undertakes large-scale reform, there are times when disaster appears certain — only to be averted at the last minute by the good sense of its sometimes unfairly maligned members. What now appears in Washington as a special-interest scrum could well become a triumph for the general interest. But for that to happen, the two parties must strike a grand bargain on universal coverage and malpractice tort reform. The August recess has given each party and its constituencies a chance to reassess their respective strategies. One result, let us hope, may be that Congress will surprise everyone this fall.

“This Week” Transcript with Sen. John Kerry, D-Mass. and Sen. Orrin Hatch, R-Utah
http://www.abcnews.go.com/print?id=8443218

STEPHANOPOULOS: Democrats and Republicans, if you look at — across the broad, have agreed on a couple of components of the bill. These insurance reforms, you can’t be denied health care if you’re sick. You can’t get thrown out if you’re sick. A lot of Democrats, Republicans say that maybe we should have this individual mandate, to require people to buy insurance, to couple that with reforms. Bill Bradley points out today, I think it was in The New York Times, that, you know, maybe they should include some malpractice reform as well. Are they — those three things the building blocks of a deal?

HATCH: Yes, they really are. You know, Democrats have been unwilling to take on the personal injury lawyers. And look, there are cases that really deserve huge rewards, huge judgments. We’ve got to find some way of getting rid of the frivolous cases, and most of them are. Most of them are brought…

KERRY: And that’s doable, most definitely.

HATCH: Yes, and that’s doable. Most of them are brought to — you know, to get the defense costs. They know that once they bring them, the insurance companies are going to have to pay their defense costs rather than take a chance at a runaway jury.

While accepting any deal involving a public option would accurately be characterized as surrender, not compromise; should the GOP be willing to capitulate on Conrad’s co-ops in exchange for the Dems acquiescing on tort reform? Are there any conservative health reform measures worth achieving at the expense of a political victory for President Obama? Could the Dems make us an offer we can’t refuse?
Aron Goldman Says:
September 1st, 2009 at 1:34 am
Why is the Club for Growth Attacking Senator Bennett?
by David Frum
http://www.newmajority.com/why-is-the-club-for-growth-attacking-senator-bennett
heather Says:
September 1st, 2009 at 3:52 am
who is chris daggett? what a loser!
Swint Says:
September 1st, 2009 at 5:48 am
Good gravy, enough with the links and posts from other articles in the comments.

Anyway, one thing to keep in mind is that just because a person “disapproves” doesn’t mean they won’t still vote for him. Even if the numbers for AA’s are accurate, I would suppose that 90% will still vote for him. The number that I found most surprising was the 41/41 among voters aged 18-29, what a swing! I suspect this poll is an outlier.
FredrikI Says:
September 1st, 2009 at 8:12 am
I saw the good news concerning Christie in New Jersey. But remember things could still change. That is why NJ Republicans must work the damndest hardest work to unseat Corzine. They can not take nothing for granted and with the White House in Corzine `s corner everything can happen

Do not get complacent !

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